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30
Oct
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Follow me on twitter: korenidan87
3:50pm
Even though I believe more downside will continue next week, a 1-2 day retracement is possible… But I’m not buying into monday… we might have one more swoosh lower before that happens.
3:07pm
Stopped out at 188.75$… very nice trade here with a nice 0.4-0.5% profit .. on $189,560… a nice 700$ trade in a few minutes.
3:05pm
Or not… moving stop with this market to 188.75$.
3:04pm
Stop now at $189.15… i’ll sit on this one for a while.
3:03pm
STOP now at $189.20.
3:02pm
STOP at now $189.45.. profitable no matter what.
3:00pm
Short AAPL at 189.56. 1000 shares.
2:53pm
Stopped out of AAPL at -0.01%… I’ll put back a position apon a break of the 189.60 level.
2:47pm
Stopped out of AMZN short today.. very nice profit…. will look to re-enter after a retrace higher. Movign stop of AAPl from $190.3 to $189.90.
2:44pm
Took a small short in AAPL for an intraday trade here $189.90… stop at 190.3$
2:18pm
So close to getting stopped out.. but now we’re back down again!!! 114 will be very strong support.. but until then.. who knows… I’m okay with being stopped out, but i’ll probably re-enter short again at some point.
2:10pm
Very visible inverse H&S on the 1 and 5 minute SPY…. we could be going in for a small retracement… I’m very close to getting stopped out of AMZN too.. but hey great trades today!
2:02pm
I got stopped out of BIDU as i expected… good nice profit today on that name… AMZN still shorting this one.
1:36pm
BIDU is now capitulating… you want to keep TIGHTER stops when this happens because we can get a reversal..
1:17pm
While I wouldn’t be shorting into the close here… i would not recommend buying here either… Yesterday was a perfect bull trap, and so today’s action can continue into next week.
1:06pm
After 6 months (since april) my personal portfolio just hit new highs for the year at 103.97% YTD. I remain short holding the AMZN short and BIDU short as i continue to move the stops down… we look like we are forming another bear flag on both names. I like my GOOG NAKED short on november calls, my AMZN NAKED short on november calls (all are out of the money) which means as long as it stays like this on OPEX, i just make premium of $4.80 on GOOG and $5.90 on AMZN a contract.
12:47pm
I have no words, I can’t believe how beautiful this wedge resistance worked out… You fall below, retest and then crash back down. Perfect!
12:02pm
Both AMZN and BIDU look very very weak right here as they are slowly breaking their respective support levels.
11:38am
A break of 1051 on the SPX, would mean that yesterday was a beautiful bull trap (just like we expected would happen soon)and that we have in fact broken the wedge and have started a corrective downtrend to say the least… We still have some strong support levels below us, but this is definitely the first strong sign.
11:19am
Update on short stock positions ** AMZN short at $122… as mentioned 10 minutes ago**, ** BIDU short at $393.80**
11:14am
Even though I sold some naked calls on AMZN already which is a very very bearish play, i’m taking small shorts on this name as well as long as today remains as a DOJI candle or something more bearish.
11:06am
Even though BIDU is somewhat holding on to these 390+ levels… a break underneath and it’s moving down another leg lower. I do have a short position on this name already..
10:14am
Just wanted to show you that AMZN is forming a triangle on the 10 minute… usually that would be bullish after a massive rally, but this rally also shoved AMZN into an incredibly overbought status:
9:42am
Huge up candle here stopped out at 160.20 (+0.3%). But as long as we stay under the wedge i’m in the bearish camp.
9:36am
I’m liking the early weakness on AMZN today… that’s good, 120 has to break for AMZN to start falling hard. I am putting a trailing stop on my SPY short @ 106.60, of about 40 cents.
9:33am
Moving stops on all my shorts to profitable areas here… i’m now profitable no matter what.
3:04am
Let’s not forget the jobs number at 8:30am , but the market yesterday retested wedge support as resistance with the 200 SMA 60 minute all at 106.77 (that was the high, as i called out in the intraday). We went short at these levels… and placed a stop around that area. We have to slightly raise the stop to around 1067.50 because wedge former support keeps rising. However, if the market holds below that resistance we could see the bears pile in. I like short below wedge support, and long above it.. 1070 is also a very strong fib retracement.
Guess I’ll move my stops up again. doodee doo dee dooo.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
LOL….!
DOW NOV 24 CALL, VALE NOV 26 CALL, SSO NOV 34 CALL, DDM NOV 39 CALL, AXP NOV 35 CALL, JPM NOV 43 CALL
All market orders. I believe we’re printed LOD or close to it, and cycle low.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
that’s very risky.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
I still hold AXP, JPM, HD, DIS, and DOW shares short, plus DXD, QID, and SKF calls. I’m up more than $60k since I shorted on October 19, so I can afford to take a bit of risk.
My losses are limited, but my gains are not.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
meaning the november 3rd cycle low?
Idan/Woo… Please let us know when to cover the shorts… FAS/FAZ pair has worked perfectly in last 3 days.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
I would hold anything that is NOT volatile into monday. FAZ is too volatile… i would maybe swtich FAZ into XLF short for monday.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
i agree with idan. market could backtest that 1051 level, or a little below it.
not exactly the best place to enter right now.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Thnx.
Should we hold shorts into the weekend ?
October 30th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Anything that is not volatile yes…. unless i get stopped out i’m holding AMZN and BIDU short into monday, (unless we end market RIGHT at the lows), i’ll take some profits. Otherwise i would not hold anything like FAZ or options.
Bought 200 FAS at 68.70….
October 30th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
Got stopped out as soon as I entered
loss of $150.
I guess I have to give up my steak dinner today and go for Ramon Noodles.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Dam it I want my steak back …200 fas at 67.40
October 30th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Typo..make that 69.70…but still a loss of $150 on the books…
104%? congrats idan, that is a track record most would envy, certainly me.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
thx… it’s been a really volatile year.. from 70% up to 58 %up to 100 % up to 39% up (in mid september) and now up 105% which i am proud of… but you never know… I use to hedge my bearishness with longer term stock, but now i’m not hedged.. i’ll wait for valuations to become attractive again (maybe 20-30% lower).
October 30th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
Great record dude! patience pays
October 30th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Yes, congrats Idan; that is an awesome run!
———— SRS ———- pushing through $10.50 ….. looking very bullish. im going to just keep moving my stop up. im not holding over the weekend.
MUTUAL FUNDS close off books today i believe. they may have cash on hand to do some buying on MONDAY … ya know… BARGAIN SHOPPING lol. so im happy to be mostly cash for MONDAY.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
———– SRS $11 ———– has traded under this value since the beginning of September. if it breaks above this price their is little sign of resistance.
upper BB on the daily is still pointing down. still no solid confirmed turn of trend for me…. guess its not easy to call a another leg down when we have been faked out sooooooooooo many times.
i stopped out while i was driving to work. missed out on getting in a short position at the major trend line break. great job to all those that had puts/shorts today.
market was pretty heavily oversold earlier on the smaller charts, so there may be some consolidation. the bottom was the 50% retrace of one of the rises.
this could mean we’re starting the bear. we broke a major wedge, and a major channel to the south. that’s pretty significant. we haven’t hit the 38% retrace of the full rise just yet though.
lost 3% on one position and 7% on another stop position. still a good week overall.
For the record, although I have bought a bunch of calls, they were only 8% of my gains since my gains from October 19. I am only targeting SPX 1060, based on what I am seeing on the VIX. I still hold shares short, so I don’t care if we have a Black Swan event on Monday.
there’s a trend line and fib retrace here at the 1035 level. if it breaks, you could see a good amount more dropping.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
I’d say we hold that line for now. It shouldn’t get broken on the first try.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
healthy bounce. yeah and we’ve already fallen a good amount. it’s been a while since we’ve had nearly a 30 point drop. =P
Woo, which trend line do you use? For day trade or for swing?
For big sale today, could market bounce back on Monday?
October 30th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
it coudl backtest a trend line at 1045, which is probably the most significant one at the moment.
there are occasional times when trend lines break to hit a fib, and we did hit a fib retrace of one of the rises, but it’s hard to say if it is a major trend line retrace.
this is a dangerous area.
I added 1000 shares of QID @ 23.00 yesterday (trade posted here) and I originally intended to hold it longer term with the other shares that I already had but I may just play it safe and close those 1000 out here soon for a nice 1-day trade.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
nice work …Morris
October 30th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Thanks man, it’s been a great week!
Out of almost all my shorts and taking the rest of the month off …LOL Have a great weekend everybody!
October 30th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Have fun! Yeah, I enjoy my $60k profit, also.
anyone playing the VIX? I got a partial fill for 18 x Nov 30 calls, chased them from $.95 to $1.05, sitting at $1.50 now.
I wanted an up-day today to make the Jan/Feb 30’s and 40’s a little cheaper…
October 30th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
are you serious.. wow!!
VIX is up (25.00%) .. shame on me for not buying VXX !!
October 30th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
I looked at the chart from last Nov – May, stayred above 40 the entire time. I was waiting for what I expected to be a run-up to year-end to totally load up on Jan – Feb OTM calls for huge gains.
The nice thing about VIX is that it moves on volatility, no matter where the underlying S&P is at.
THe options are based on the futures, not the cash price which is not tradable, so do your research
Seems pretty likely that this is P3 right now. This is a very academic 5 waves down. When it bounces, I expect at least a few days of consolidation, or maybe a second wave that retraces a decent amount back toward the high. The market can do whatever it wants, but at this point I’m guaranteed a profit on all of my positions.
The problem was with P2 folks were trying to get cute and play the pullbacks. They never came, or they were missed by all but the most agile. I’m sure we’ll have tons of short squeezes all the way down, but I wont try to play them. I am really hoping to return to being an “investor” albeit one that is short instead of long, for a vast majority of this down leg. I will set reasonable trailing stops at this point and let them run. I am sitting on huge profits as my accounts across the board are almost entirely in mid cap bear ETFS such as MWN, MZZ, and MYY. Good luck all. Great work.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
That’s why I intend to hold onto my JPM, AXP, HD, DOW, VALE shares short. I will add more of them on the rally next week. I will short and hold and cover in late September 2010.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
fritz would you buy puts now for march, june and sept. now, and add more next week if we get a rally
October 30th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
I don’t know if options will still be honored half way into the abyss. That’s why I am shorting with calls to protect them for now (when they’re still honored). Once I add more short positions next week, I will only go with March puts for the longest dates options.
possibility of a crash on monday, what are the odds or a crash anybody?
October 30th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
why does everybody always bring up crash and on mondays or fridays…..don’t the computers stop trading at some threshold.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
look at the action at the end of the day. If we are to have a black monday the market will need to create a panic into the close. IMO
October 30th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
10-4
out of 1000 shares of QID @ 24.00 (up 4.35% from my entry @ 23.00 yesterday); + $1000.00
For those who read my post on getting out of QID (I did sell 80% of my QID calls) when Nasdaq hit 2040. Well, Nasdaq hit 2040.85 (not sure if it will be LOD, but we did bounce) If only my timing was this good all of the time…
Well, a profit is a profit
I’m done for the week. The only thing I have left is QID (4000 shares) and I’ll hold it over the weekend.
I entered the week with 4000 QID, 4000 SCO, and 2000 SKF.
closed SKF @ 25.30 on 10/26 for a profit of 600
closed SCO @ 13.60 on 10/28 for a profit of 1800
I did 6 swing trades.
bought 200 FAS @ 78.00 on 10/26 and stopped out @ 76.00 on 10/27 for a loss of 400
bought 500 SDS @ 39.00 on 10/27 and sold @ 40.30 on 10/28 for a profit of 650
bought 1000 UCO @ 13.50 on 10/28 and sold @ 14.10 on 10/29 for a profit of 600
bought 300 FAS @ 69.50 on 10/28 and sold @ 73.50 on 10/29 for a profit of 1200
bought 1000 SCO @ 12.75 on 10/29 and sold @ 13.60 on 10/30 for a profit of 850
bought 1000 QID @ 23.00 on 10/29 and sold @ 24.00 on 10/30 for a profit of 1000
profits on closed trades = 6300
QID closed @ 21.90 last Friday so that position has increased in value by over 8000 this week (if the market closed right now).
Have a great weekend!
October 30th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
i want to be like you one day.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
mee too! He is very disciplined and methodical.
Looks like my steak money is coming back.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Well, I believe that the only trade (entry and exit) that was not posted here in real time was the SCO that closed @ 13.60 on 10/28 (it stopped out while I was in class) but I posted the stop out as soon as I got back in and I believe it went even higher than 13.60 after my post so anyone who was following on the trade could have gotten out higher than me.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Awesome Morris !!
October 30th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Thanks! I hope it helped someone out this week.
maybe we get a 2 oclock reverse fake out
just my thoughts, “they” know we use cramer as a inverse indicator so they have cramer call for a correction and we all are confused.
1041.78 is an area to watch. if we stay north of it, we could get a rise to 1045 or so. if we crack below it, we could drop to 1031-1032
If you read my post On October 11th
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/bull-until-jan-2010-or-march?context=latest^
I said specifically
1) ‘The last week of October will be bearish in nature’ , because the market will want to make a large bottom (>6% sell off) by first week of November’.
Since Oct 19th, we`ve sold off (1100 to 1035) 6.5%. This is not an outlier and hence nothing to be worried about if your a bull.
Do you not think if this was P3, that we`d sell off at least a bit more than the EV(Expected sell off Value)?
October 30th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
how are you playing this zee
October 30th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
I`m already long the following::::
SPY 112 calls expires December x 50 contracts @1$each
DOW $23.73 X 420 shares
AFL $41.47 x 240 shares
CYH $31.11 320 shares
I wanted to go long 100% today.. but decided not too.. must refrain myself incase we do go lower..
buying more of banks on mond/tues
October 30th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Zee Nov 9th turndate ,10 days ago it looked like a high,now looking likes a low should be put in.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Zee is playing this by slamming Firtz and morris while making up trades and \
posts after the fact.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Shady: I don’t see Nov 9th as a turn date.. It is def. november 3rd.. my count goes all the way back to march 9th and has been correct on any every single market top / bottom..I have the count for all bi-weekly, 6 week cycles.. and it’s perfect.. and I’ve included all statistical outliers in the count..
November 3rd or 9th was never suppose to be a theoretical high.. unless some higher order cycle was going to peak at the same time (none that I am aware off)
Paladin: Don’t be angry at the bull!
got killed on my SSO today so closed and bought up puts on SPY and calls on FAZ.
Banks are gonna be hammered, the write off thing. I think we could see a crash start on
Monday because no one beleives its possible. Art cashin said he felt like a 800 point drop
was about to happen on Wed. Might see it yet as the same pumpers turn into short selling
dumpsters when the market reverses.
They will ban short selling in a heartbeat.
One thing bothered me at close yesterday. The sell on close orders were huge and they
had to prop at the last minute to show a strong close.
I have a meeting in 10 minutes. Just one thing for all of you: watch the VIX, if it closes above 29 ish, it will lock in a “sell VIX” signal. We know what that means.
The Dollar is also on its way to lock in a “sell” signal.
That’s why I grabbed more long side hedges.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Sell Vix – means buy index …. right ?
i guess if i miss the crash i could always play the bounce afterward
October 30th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
the bam model called for a crash in october, not a crash, but they called for a 50% crash in next 2-5 months.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Hey buddy, here’s the sell off I mentioned, 24 hours ago, and as you said sarcastically oh no a sell off everybody run. But I guess you forgot your running shoes!!
October 30th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
i found them
October 30th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
I guess you could always play the bounce afterward as you mentioned above.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
you think we will bounce from here
October 30th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Sure, sometime in January or later I would guess.
“Tip for the Day”. There is a “possibility” that an expanding triangle could be forming on the daily chart and it could take us to new highs.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
yess ssirr!
Something tells me we selloff into the close im going to hold my EDZ…Maybe im crazy
I must say this is exciting !!!
October 30th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
This is exciting. I agree we may sell into close
October 30th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
I believe so. A 3% down day across the board looks likely!
Morris
I understand you are the master of sco-oil continues to fall off the cliff yet no more movement in sco-does oil need to break 77 before more buyers pile on or is it topped out?
October 30th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
The honest answer is I don’t know. I’m pretty good at getting the direction right on any given oil trade but not so good at picking the best entry and exit points for the trades. There are other posters here (Anitang, JON, etc.) who are better than me at that and maybe they will chime in.
I do believe that SCO is moving as it should.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
thanks for the input- i appreciate it
October 30th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
if oil breaks 77 is it headed to 75 or are there a few supports along the way?
October 30th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Morris – are you seeing any direction on oil right now ?
October 30th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
IMHO today is just profit taking for the mutual funds. They ran it up and now booking profits.
To me the dollar is going down. Unless we increase the interest rates…I have a sizable share in UCO 5800 total and I will hold it till I loose it all
my target for OIL is $100 by year end…
October 30th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
I will say that I have no position in oil right now. I want to see what happens on Monday morning. Best of luck to you!
October 30th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
Right now UCO is on support and SCO on resistance … that is why you are not seeing much movement … hope this helps …
October 30th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
thanks-i agree that oil is headed higher by the end of the year-just wondering if we see a higher dollar into monday with more selling pressure
S&P 1036 wow….Could `020 be in our future
October 30th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Some day in 2012.
I suspect we will see heavy commercial selling stops triggered into the close.
Carmer now out saying today is not bad but he would sell cause market no go up
for rest of year.
Great way to launch his book of getting back to nothing.
FWIW Soros predicting a massive 35% crash into end of Nov. His article on
financial times of london. He is predicting a complete calamity as the overly
bullish turns neg. He quotes Wilbur Ross (very conservative and bullish by
nature) as saying the correction will turn to rout in a huge hurry as hedge fund
managers compete on the downside. Says VIX will head back to retest old
panic highs when the charts do an exact repeat of 1929-30.
one hour left of this fun filled friday
I bet a dollar we close < 200 down today
October 30th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
Any takers?
that stupid video of that guy saying the last days of the month and the first are bullish stat. , maybe true but didnt help me any
October 30th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
why does the ppt always trade against me
—– SRS —- moving into the final hour. moved my stop up to $10.45. looking at the buy order bookings…. some large supportive orders above $10.50. very interesting.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
the daily candle pattern looks eerily similar to the JUN JULY period. after the ABC up SRS just tanked hard. im being very cautious and going to day trade this only for the next while.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
volume is higher on this rise than the volume on the fall yesterday. convincing
Im sure the CIT BK announcement added to the sell off today
October 30th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Got stopped out FAS break even…total loss of $150 for the day
I am looking for one more down toward 1025-1030. I am sure we will get that either today or on Monday morning.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
I have a feeling we hit 1030 on the nose today. Monday we hit 1020 or less.
What do you think guys,how much of a risk would it be to hold EDZ into Monday morning i can always sell in pre-market if futures look good..
October 30th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
I would be very wary of holding a 3X ETF over the weekend after a great run. I say book the profits today (unless a longer term hold of this position figures into your overall trading plan for some reason) and pat yourself on the back for making a great trade!
October 30th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
Good advice Morris thanks..
—– 1035 ——– lower BB on the daily SPX on my chart. we are not oversold but this is potential spot for support to come into the market. the funds could be booking profits and then employ capital again next month.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
NEVER HAPPY… LOL. … now im gun shy and trade a nice move in SRS for 4.5% gain in a few hours. stop is up tight now. or course i make a nice trade when i go with a small position. maybe i get my confidence back soon.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
$10.62 manual stop…. im here for the next while.
somebody just crapped in the pool.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
sorry
October 30th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
No problem, I like it (and so does my one position – FAZ)
October 30th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
the complacency in the market will bite alot of people im sure. if you are long the market and took Friday off bcs Friday’s are usually up days…. you better have stops in place and hope your stops trigger a sell. this may just be the beginning of a nasty move. im getting out of SRS today. however, for the first time in a long time im thinking a gap Monday is possible.
———— SRS ———– gap fill on the 15 minute chart is complete at $10.77. this spot is very telling …. do we blow through and above this big gap or does it resist.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
im hanging in with a moving average rather than $10.62 … saw some big orders come in just below my potential stop
October 30th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
bahhhhhhhh …… took $10.51
October 30th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
so…. gap fill and quick reversal. not a good sign for the bears. looks like the SPX holds the lower BB at 1035
this reminds me of the market last year at this time.
big up one day, big down the next.
I say monday we get an up day.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
with what i see in SRS … makes sense. it was GO LONG GO SHORT GO LONG back and forth. people who hit it right really rung the register.
im long HAU.TO here. lightly traded Grain Fund
October 30th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
$10.40 SRS should hold support somewhat. looks like a good area to consolidate. around SPX 1040
October 30th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
3.5 hours of SRS gains erased in 20minutes
October 30th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
I just went long HW.TO.
That thing is a firecracker….hope I’m right!
October 30th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Aaah if this was so easy
we all will make money.. But you have a point cause as a bull I do not like the 150+ spike up and down.
if we make it back to above the 104.50 are we above support on the spy
————- SRS ————- ummmmmmmmmmm … guesss im happy to have sold at $10.51… as it now trades below where i got in
October 30th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
whoa…. if SRS can hold the $10.40 level into the close i may just take a few hundred for Monday. that would be quite bearish for the market. down to the wire
October 30th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
indicators on the daily including the RSI close just above 50 make this instrument quite bullish. its on the edge … but i give a slight edge that this one moves higher from here. very close to a coin flip.
bought amazon puts a little while ago.
wfc calls. a little while ago.
goog calls.
all small positions for fun.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
a litle worried about holding anything long.. i think the bears will try to prove that we are truly going lower by pushing the market down early monday… and then have a consolidation from then on for1-2 days.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
I definetely see that Monday could be another 1-2% down day.. That would be a great way to confuse everyone.. No one will know what’s going on.
I went long today.. however that’s because I am bullish in the long-term and I can stand a drawdown of 3-4%.
October 30th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
I’m very bearish longer term.. i still don’t see why people think this market is going to new highs.
October 30th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
I think the answer is greed, Idan. Its stunning that people feel a 65% rally isn’t enough and the market must continue on to a 75% or 85% rally. NOT gonna happen. I think we’ll see a correction of either 12-15% or 25%+. What’s your feeling on how far we’ll go down?
October 30th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
yeah it really could. goog is holding a long term trend line. wfc is sitting on a fib and major trend line. but it’s on the verge of breaking.
same with goog, if it heads a little lower, it could break the trend line and gap down. up a little bit on all my positions, but it doesn’t mean anything going into tomorrow. BAC might be breaking down, same with fas. so i’m a little worried about my wfc position. like i said, small positions, so not too much to worry about at the moment.
thanks for the warning.
October 30th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
yeah small positions are always worth trying out… i do like the AMZN puts on there… you know i’m a fan. I think that we haven’t caused enough damage on the bearish side to cause the bulls to think it’s over… that’s why if the bears truly want to do damage, it’ll come early monday… and probably get some minor reversal mid day (to end either slightly positive or down but not close to the lows.
October 30th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
agreed!
October 30th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
agreed
October 30th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
My timeframe is 1-2 months bullish but after the Christmas rally.. I’ll be a bear for 2010. I think we’re going to newer highs because we have not broken key support levels.. i.e: The 38.2% retracement
We have the 1014(38%retracement)-1020(Oct2nd Low) area on the S&P which will provide a lot of support on the S&P. Think of those levels as the equivalent of 869-880 on the S&P. If we do break those levels.. The bear has likely started.. The question is do we break it? If we do break it.. I’m just not going to even trade anymore.. but as long as we are above that level.. it’s safe to go long.
October 30th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
it’s a 65% rally.. but were still down 20% from september 2008.. and down 50% from the highs in 2007.
October 30th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
Nevertheless, a 65% rally from the low point we hit without any legitimate correction, is absolutely insane!!! To expect and hope for another 10% or more without a correction of 10%+ is just wrong I feel.
October 30th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Woo – pls could you do an updated post this weekend … think we are at a critical level and your charts would be very useful … also, if you could post some trades / updates, that will be awesome
Have a great weekend ….
October 30th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Then can read / analyse at leisure vs peeking in from work
Hi guys looks like everybody’s had a good week. i’ve been to busy working since wed. I’m pissed i missed out on all the fun to the downside but i think were due for a bounce before i’m gonna load up short for good. Theoretically we should hit the lower 1,3 trendline before we bounce.
Holding 100% short through the weekend. I think we see an identical fall Monday, if not worse.
October 30th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
I think mondays fall will only be strong early in the morning.. to reverse some of it at the end of the day + tuesday… and then another fall potentialy wed-friday.
October 30th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Makes sense to me. I’m not so much of a day trader, so I’ll just keep holding for the entire week most likely.
October 30th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Idan, just curious – you were short the S&P at around 1066 last night, then this morning moved your stops to profitable after the open – did you get stopped out on the rebound at 9:43? I moved my stops after the open on SDS to 39.20, barely missed geting stopped out then held for a nice ride the rest of the day.
Wanted to thank you for the comment last night about resistance coming in at 1067 on the S&P – I began my short with SDS too early and was considering booking the loss at that point.
October 30th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Yes I did get stopped out right at 9:43.. and then started getting short AMZN and BIDU right after that..
market is starting to get oversold so i wouldn’t be surprised if the market dropped to 1030-1032 to bring it more oversold before a decent retrace or consolidation. chance that the 1051 area could be retested.
either way we’ll see. i would not be surprised if 1100 were the top of the market, but have no problems with the market heading into new highs. we may get our answer next week.
good luck everyone!
October 30th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
haha yea.. i think we will know for sure next week what’s happening.
I too believe monday will be a pretty big down day.. to scare all retail longs to sell.. and to entice more bears.. thats just me..
GLTAS & GLTAL.
have a good one.
only have 2 positions
long HAU.TO and short via SRS at the close $10.32. SRS is a coin flip for me but indicators give it a slight edge. if it does move higher it will race higher so risk/reward seems good. im hedged with that lightly traded Grain Fund. SLEEP WELL THIS WEEKEND …. ahhhh . the positions are equal in size. stil have those pesky FUN puts. they report early next week so ill have answers soon on that bet.
would rather have seen SRS hold the $10.40 which i really felt it was going to. see monday.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE. HAVE FUN THIS WEEKEND.
Idan,
where do you see the dollar and oil going into monday/tuesday? Thanks for the TA and have a great weekend
What a beautiful candle we got for this month, even lower than the high of 2 month ago which mean much more collapse is blinking. Market is in correction guys, that means when you get up in the morning just think about the level you should put your shorts on. The only time you should think about long is when you see a huge short covering is taking place like yetserday.