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30
Oct
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Follow me on twitter: korenidan87
3:50pm
Even though I believe more downside will continue next week, a 1-2 day retracement is possible… But I’m not buying into monday… we might have one more swoosh lower before that happens.
3:07pm
Stopped out at 188.75$… very nice trade here with a nice 0.4-0.5% profit .. on $189,560… a nice 700$ trade in a few minutes.
3:05pm
Or not… moving stop with this market to 188.75$.
3:04pm
Stop now at $189.15… i’ll sit on this one for a while.
3:03pm
STOP now at $189.20.
3:02pm
STOP at now $189.45.. profitable no matter what.
3:00pm
Short AAPL at 189.56. 1000 shares.
2:53pm
Stopped out of AAPL at -0.01%… I’ll put back a position apon a break of the 189.60 level.
2:47pm
Stopped out of AMZN short today.. very nice profit…. will look to re-enter after a retrace higher. Movign stop of AAPl from $190.3 to $189.90.
2:44pm
Took a small short in AAPL for an intraday trade here $189.90… stop at 190.3$
2:18pm
So close to getting stopped out.. but now we’re back down again!!! 114 will be very strong support.. but until then.. who knows… I’m okay with being stopped out, but i’ll probably re-enter short again at some point.
2:10pm
Very visible inverse H&S on the 1 and 5 minute SPY…. we could be going in for a small retracement… I’m very close to getting stopped out of AMZN too.. but hey great trades today!
2:02pm
I got stopped out of BIDU as i expected… good nice profit today on that name… AMZN still shorting this one.
1:36pm
BIDU is now capitulating… you want to keep TIGHTER stops when this happens because we can get a reversal..
1:17pm
While I wouldn’t be shorting into the close here… i would not recommend buying here either… Yesterday was a perfect bull trap, and so today’s action can continue into next week.
1:06pm
After 6 months (since april) my personal portfolio just hit new highs for the year at 103.97% YTD. I remain short holding the AMZN short and BIDU short as i continue to move the stops down… we look like we are forming another bear flag on both names. I like my GOOG NAKED short on november calls, my AMZN NAKED short on november calls (all are out of the money) which means as long as it stays like this on OPEX, i just make premium of $4.80 on GOOG and $5.90 on AMZN a contract.
12:47pm
I have no words, I can’t believe how beautiful this wedge resistance worked out… You fall below, retest and then crash back down. Perfect!
12:02pm
Both AMZN and BIDU look very very weak right here as they are slowly breaking their respective support levels.
11:38am
A break of 1051 on the SPX, would mean that yesterday was a beautiful bull trap (just like we expected would happen soon)and that we have in fact broken the wedge and have started a corrective downtrend to say the least… We still have some strong support levels below us, but this is definitely the first strong sign.
11:19am
Update on short stock positions ** AMZN short at $122… as mentioned 10 minutes ago**, ** BIDU short at $393.80**
11:14am
Even though I sold some naked calls on AMZN already which is a very very bearish play, i’m taking small shorts on this name as well as long as today remains as a DOJI candle or something more bearish.
11:06am
Even though BIDU is somewhat holding on to these 390+ levels… a break underneath and it’s moving down another leg lower. I do have a short position on this name already..
10:14am
Just wanted to show you that AMZN is forming a triangle on the 10 minute… usually that would be bullish after a massive rally, but this rally also shoved AMZN into an incredibly overbought status:
9:42am
Huge up candle here stopped out at 160.20 (+0.3%). But as long as we stay under the wedge i’m in the bearish camp.
9:36am
I’m liking the early weakness on AMZN today… that’s good, 120 has to break for AMZN to start falling hard. I am putting a trailing stop on my SPY short @ 106.60, of about 40 cents.
9:33am
Moving stops on all my shorts to profitable areas here… i’m now profitable no matter what.
3:04am
Let’s not forget the jobs number at 8:30am , but the market yesterday retested wedge support as resistance with the 200 SMA 60 minute all at 106.77 (that was the high, as i called out in the intraday). We went short at these levels… and placed a stop around that area. We have to slightly raise the stop to around 1067.50 because wedge former support keeps rising. However, if the market holds below that resistance we could see the bears pile in. I like short below wedge support, and long above it.. 1070 is also a very strong fib retracement.
Still 100% short since Monday, and still definitely in the green overall. Yep, I missed the dead cat bounce Thursday, but plan to make that all back Friday when the down trend resumes, and hold all positions into the weekend.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:16 am
i am also with you on this thinking. just opened a huge position on EDZ @6.39. if anyone is long……..you have to respect the history of the markets, as far as this is histoically the worst couple of weeks for holding long positions. i would not be surprised one bit to see this market take a huge dump today.. the summation index is not buying this phony push up at all. volume was less than 200 million yesterday on spys. i dont trust it one bit.
glta
October 30th, 2009 at 3:29 am
Very good points my friend, and stated very well, better than I could have for sure. The volume was low-medium yesterday, but was medium-high for all the pullback days preceding it, so it would just stand to reason. Its just also hard for me to believe that a 5% correction to a 7 month rally could be all we get, aside from the 8% pullback in July.
No, I think at least a 15% pullback is what we’ll get before this market can get to new highs. Could be wrong, of course, but like you, I don’t think so.
October 30th, 2009 at 3:49 am
i had read, and heard from more than one source………..that if the dollar would have continued on its uptrend tuesday…….the dow could have been down more than 700-800 points. this is very very dangerous stuff that we are dealing with. if this dollar continues to get a short squeeze…………….you can forget about all the charts , we will be at levels that will catch all at a surprise…………………..this whole friggin mess is about the greenback. and nothing else. turn the tv off and throw away the charts for the time being. just watch the dollar index /
October 30th, 2009 at 4:13 am
Agreed 100%. Its amazing how this government is just fine with letter the dollar tank like this. I do think that if it does reverse course, and GS the FED and JPM stop manipulating futures and the market at the same time, we could see a huge drop in one day followed by several more drops of 1%+ in quick succession. I’ve read one experienced analyst say he thinks the pullback will last as long as this rally, 7 months plus. Nobody knows for sure, but I sure wish I did.
October 30th, 2009 at 9:20 am
if they dollar keeps bouncing…we could actually see a retest of the lows setforth in 08…wouldn’t that be a kick in the ass….after all said and done people finally getting back on their feets thinking the economy is getting better than smack, a new low in the markets followed by a second wave of mortgage crisis this time including commercial real estate, and we’re right back to square one..hm?
well..just thinking out loud
October 30th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Right on the nose my friend, and very possible in my opinion.
S&P hit lower support…<1052… but the dow did't went there… yet…
that makes me think that it will go there today or monday….
soo futures are down… will we have a flat makert opening…?
I begin the day with 5000 QID, 1000 SCO, and about 50% cash in my portfolio. I bought the SCO yestersday and I’ll likely close it today if it makes a decent move. The QID is a longer term hold (unless this market makes an aggressive move upwards over the next week or so).
Best of luck to all today!
long a whole bunch of puts on Qs…..good luck with y’all today. be short and be strong!
Nice, gutsy call by idan on close yesterday. I went long and look to take a bit of loss on open,
the 200 points was a short squeeze put in by GS and the follow thru or lack of will tell it all today.
Will be looking for entry point in FAZ today. Pattern is sell on open, strong close, lets see if that
holds into close as they want to stimulate buying on weekend.
————– URE —————- ditched it here at $5.40 for a nice profit. im not guessing on which way we turn here. im expecting some more consolidation. so far, no clear candle pattern in SRS. what other data can they manipulate to send us higher??
October 30th, 2009 at 10:00 am
———– RON.TO ———– got this small short covered at $15.27 for a 2% gain and it looks like a completion of ABC corrective.
i have so few positions . ill look at taking more risk once we are 10 trading days outside of OPEX expiry.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:06 am
———— FUN ———- not much fun with these PUTS. 14 weeks stuck in a range this stock. trapped between the 40week and 50week MA
Any thoughts on holding FAZ?
Idan, thank you very much for your short call of SPY last night. Excellent call. It helped me decide not to bail on FAZ with a loss.
will be looking to close SCO if it sees the 13.25 area
currently have a ton of spy calls. bought around 1060 and scaled all the way down to 1057…
currently up 6% with the market at 1060 again. trend lines and fibs holding nicely.
i think i may set stops in the positive area, and go back to sleep soon.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:04 am
there’s a trend line here that i hope we cross to the north…
October 30th, 2009 at 10:04 am
thanks for commenting woo, i know it’s not cool to depend on someone, but i’m starting to believe in you.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:08 am
don’t believe too much haha.
there’s a good amount going on here at the 1061-1062 level.
1062.5 is the 5 min 50ma. 1062.8 is a fib.
trend line is probably in the mid 1061 area.
need to get north of these numbers for a rise. hard to call it at the moment because the three aren’t sitting together, but they aren’t necessarily far apart…
October 30th, 2009 at 10:09 am
looks like around 1061.8 is the trend line right now.
this may be enough to bring things down…bulls need to push. i may end up stopping out if this area holds.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:13 am
show down hard by the bears as expected.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:06 am
hey woo…
before you go to sleep, can you provide a quick chart to VISA as to what you discussed yesterday so i can follow it..i’m still learning and your mastery sure helps learning much easier. thanks
October 30th, 2009 at 10:16 am
high 78s and 76 are areas to watch, but we’re right in between, hard to call movement.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:19 am
thank you..
there are also some long term fibs in the 1058-1060 area…it could consolidate above and around here for a while, but i think it will hold to the north.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:18 am
1058.2 is lower fib. held.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:19 am
good place to initiate a call position? thanks
idan,
so with the AMZN wedge…are we heading south?? and target?
October 30th, 2009 at 11:07 am
112, 108 and 104..
—————– YIPEEEEE —————- brain gets a rest. im down to one position and that is FUN PUTS $10 NOV ……….. if it moves decidedly below $10 i may just get out before earnings call. now i can enjoy my day
im going to do some TA over the weekend and hopefully find some stocks to track through to next OPEX.
good luck everyone!
Not as upset with my JPM short anymore. I like it. Hoping to ride it to $41, bought JPM NOV 43 calls to limit my losses to less than $1k.
I entered SCO yesterday @12.75. My initial target of 13.25 has now been reached but I am still holding as this might run some more. If you followed, you might put a stop in around 13.20 to lock in a decent profit.
My strategy with the UCO/SCO trades has been a little different this week. I’m using smaller positions (1000 shares per trade) and getting out of trades faster.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Great stratergy. I am getting killed in UCO now. Greed got me as usual
I will try to limit my size next time around
October 30th, 2009 at 11:05 am
I was getting too aggressive with these oil trades and I needed to sit down over this past weekend to get back on my normal plan which is to have about 60% of my portfolio in a longer term position (QID for me right now), 20% in cash, and 20% for swing trades with no more than about 10% on any given swing trade position.
October 30th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Killing me too
be short and be strong~ risk reversals on…short the spy calls, long the q puts….big time!
1057.17 is 5 min 200ma, trend line slightly below that.
if bears keep this down long enough and that trend line breaks we would probably see 1051
SPX is knockin on support, need it to break to confirm that this is a fifth wave down that a lot of EWers are calling for.
Any move into the mid 1070s will have me stopped out for virtually no profit (but no loss either) but at that point I would be looking for some new highs and a continuation of P2.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:34 am
breaking down.
trend line hit.
October 30th, 2009 at 10:35 am
break. =O
October 30th, 2009 at 10:37 am
high 1054s is the 50 retrace of the rise.
BKX is at 61.8% retracement level from yest top.
bought another position down in this area. made a really small profit earlier of 3% on the calls that stopped out around 1057.
October 30th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Woo, I heard that the correction that we had upto Wednesday was 3 waves correction and yesterday was the 4th wave upside and now we are seeing the wave 5 which is going to be much lower than Wednesday’s low. Do you think this could be correct based on EW rules.
October 30th, 2009 at 11:25 am
it could be. but EW intraday doesn’t play out 100% of the time.
Take a look at the 5 min.chart of EDZ looks like a beautiful bullish pattern.
October 30th, 2009 at 11:04 am
yes…………..i kept it simple, and unloaded a boat load at 6.90………….huge 51 cent move for me……………hope others had it too.
October 30th, 2009 at 11:09 am
might be correcting
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EDZ&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=14&id=p66504916561&a=182251660
October 30th, 2009 at 11:41 am
loaded back up with tza @13.60…………………………….glta
Well while I had planned to get out if the spx printed 1065 yesterday I elected to wait till today to evaluate. Glad I did. So I’m still in FAZ @ 18.00.
More importantly yesterday I trippled my EUR/USD short postion at the fib line bringing my net position to Short @ 1.48959.
This afternoon needs to see a strong reversal for me to consider exiting my positions. If we don’t get a strong reversal then I will take that to mean the broader market has decided “the GDP was great … WTF comes next.” with so many programs set to expire soon and uncertainty just aroudn the corner if we don’t see a strong showing of the bulls to validate yesterdays move I will consider it the first bull trap of a major correction.
This market is going to tank today and crash on Monday….Fib or NOT.
This economy sucks.
Woo is good but he too will become an all out BEAR today with his analysis.
Watch and Learn
October 30th, 2009 at 11:32 am
i’ve gotta say, i’m not liking this market movement for the bulls.
it’s below one of th 1056.4 fibs significantly on the 60 minute, which could mean 1051.
1054.7 is holding which is the 50 retrace of the drop, but it doesn’t mean much yet.
if 1051 breaks, i’ll consider the bear position more. same with if we break the really long term trend line below that.
good luck!
October 30th, 2009 at 11:43 am
read my post from early morning……………..this is the wrong time of the month to be long………………………………….glta
BKX went through 43.3….. FAZ shud fly more
bout to lose another trend line looks like.
October 30th, 2009 at 11:36 am
and there it goes , next stop 1050. I think we get a decent bounce for a couple hours once we tag 1050.
currently wedging between a trend line and the the fib below it…wedge will end soon…
October 30th, 2009 at 11:35 am
actually, by soon i mean in about 3 hours haha. hopefully we don’t have to wait that long for market action.
kaboom…here we go down again!
congrats to all who shorted yesterday at close
October 30th, 2009 at 11:40 am
Yep, this is going very well (so far).
October 30th, 2009 at 11:41 am
I shorted earlier than that (stated I might be premature), but am very happy with the results thus far
nice drop. that completes 3 waves down from the peak.
hits the 68% fib area. hits a trend line and another few fibs.
let’s see what the bears can do here…
If we manage to go -200 today it’s going to be a kick to the nutts of the bull mentality of buy the dips. I would expect to see real panic selling set in next week if the bears can manage a full nullification of yesterdays rally.
October 30th, 2009 at 11:47 am
there is 1050 should be time for a nice little inter day bounce now to setup for the EOD selloff.
October 30th, 2009 at 11:51 am
oh my 1050 didn’t hold ….
EDZ $7.16 up .71 i bought this morning @ 6.74 when should i sell this ETF or do i let it ride? Suggestions appreciated..Thanks
October 30th, 2009 at 11:53 am
Your green.. perhaps set a trailing stop for the day?
IMO If your up money, you have to take $ off the table.. i’m a very big bull for the next 2 months.. so thats just me.
October 30th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Thanks Zee..
I will get out of my QID calls at Nasdaq 2040.
October 30th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Sitting @ $2,000 + on my JPM short from yesterday.
October 30th, 2009 at 11:57 am
NICE hahah
October 30th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
zee, I still have November 3/4 circled, but I am thinking cycle low could be hit today or early Monday. What do you see?
October 30th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
It looks like we might be bottoming early.. we’ll only know for sure on november 3rd though.
I’m averaging in long on my LT portfolio today, monday and tuesday.
October 30th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Zee – what are you buiying to go long ?
if this area breaks…it’s bear time…
October 30th, 2009 at 11:57 am
It’s the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement towards yesterdays lows. Let’s see the bounce.
wow crazy market action haahah I LOVE IT!
2% down on wednesday
2% up on thursday
2% down on friday
hahaha
QID is about a dime from the high of the week (23.84 on Wednesday)!
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/woo1year-4?context=user
dollar is pulling back
game over… for me…
keep on the good work… nice trades for you all…
thanks ( woo… Idan…)
Do you expect panic sale this Friday afternoon at close?
———– SRS ———– intraday trade…. limit order in at $10.23
going for a quick scalp if i can get a fill.
October 30th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
FILLED
stop is in
October 30th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
going to trail my stop behind it. im not going big. just 500 shares as ive enjoyed enough stress from this market lately.
I talked about my two indicators ERX and FAS and I said that once these two dropped more than 6% in one day and a conformation a few days after that means to me the start of bear market. I clearly got my confirmation today. I am almost sure that from now to next several months we will just see lower low and lower high and that means we should short any rally.
BKX bounced from yest low.
I think we go up to the 1074 area and make the H&S pattern on the daily chart for a nice drop next week.
October 30th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
AL, stop thinking
it’s Friday.
October 30th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
I’m trying to “jinx” your SRS. haha
1. BULLS made alot in this run and have to ask themselves. do i hold out for more or take my money and run? all have to admit the market does look a bit sick despite an unconfirmed break of the 50ma
2. MUTUAL FUND year end is today? take profits and mark the books for an improved year?
———- SRS ———- moving stop up just under break even.
October 30th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
with this one moving higher…. alarming for the market as this is key area the Government has vowed to save.
Here is my buy list: DOW, VALE, HD, DDM, SSO, AXP, JPM, GS, DIS, BA, QLD
All call options. Will set target prices in one hour.
Shares I intend to hold short: AXP, JPM, HD, DIS, DOW, VALE
I have hedging calls on my shares short. The only reason I am still keeping them is because I am in profit zone and sure that they’ve already broken uptrend. I am buying further calls on them so that I can still profit from an upswing to take place.
If the market really starts dropping hard, I suspect short selling will be banned again. That’s why I’d like to open my shares short before any of that regulation kicks in.
October 30th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
interesting thought… short selling ban. hmmmm. im only day trading for now. over the weekend i look into OPEX target list.
SRS has a clean break of $10.25 and should now be support.
October 30th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Looks like an SRS extravaganza
October 30th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
My buy list:
DOW, AFL, WFC, UHS, MRK. PG, TWX, CYH
and DEC SPY 112 CALLS
-2.5%.. wow holy cow..
I only bought the SPY calls in the AM.. but after this massive selling.. jeez I guess I have to buy stock and go long.. eh?
I’m actually going LONG 35% NOW of my portfolio..
Long Portfolio:
SPY 112 calls expires December x 50 contracts @1$
DOW $23.73 X 420 shares
AFL $41.47 x 240 shares
CYH $31.11 320 shares
my 1025 neckline target is still in place….right shoulder for wave 2 bounce…
out of SCO @ 13.60 (up 6.67% from my entry @ 12.75 yesterday); + $850.00
October 30th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
13 for 14 now on UCO/SCO trades since early August
total profits on just these trades is now $26,020.00
QID is my only position now
October 30th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
Morris your a master on UCO/SCO lmao.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
Oh thanks so much Zee! I do love it when you offer your analysis on my trades.
October 30th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Oh, and could you please start posting some of your trades (entries and exits) for us in real time? Thanks in advance!
Bloomberg: October 29, 2009 “The fourth quarter will be the Waterloo of the bears,” said E. William Stone, who oversees $102 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. ”
November 19, 2009 “We fully expect the coming ‘Santa Clause Rally’ to obliterate the bears,’ said E. William Stone, who oversees $97 billion…”
June 4, 2010 “The bottom is definitely in. The bear market is over.” said E. William Stone, who oversees $52 billion…”
December 1, 2010 “The markets are severely distressed, we do not see a bottom in sight.” said E. William Stone, who oversees $2 billion…”
October 30th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
lol
October 30th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
comic relief appreciated
keep moving my trailing stop up in SRS and get out by days end? Mr Stone?
Any opinions on LVS now? TIA
Idan I actually listen to you and didnt buy the puts yesterday but i bot 200 put contracts on LVS nov $14 at $.40 this am…… where do you think it will go? TY
October 30th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
With LVS… you have to be careful… you might get a bounce into late this afternoon… I think if i were you i would take at least 50% off..
October 30th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
TY for your reply, will do that
October 30th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
Idan, SP may like you predict Nov 3 hit bottom. 1020? or you think will go south further?
In addition, Fridsay afternoon also at the end of month, it could be panic sale at close?