|
28
Oct
|
3:28pm
The Dow is more resilient than the S&P no doubt… we are still 1-2% away from both the megaphone breakdown and the wedge breakdown of the Dow: (120 min)
3:15pm
It looks like we are going much lower upon a break of the wedge… i would wait another day before starting to put on big short positions.
1:53pm
Like i said yesterday, I wouldn’t touch BIDU until it reaches the 395 level and there is where you can try to short it. I think it’s potentially a good short around these levels here… with a stop above the daily highs. I also sold some more NAKED amazon nov 120 calls at $7, averaging it up to about $5.90 of premium. This means that unless Amazon closes above 125.90 on opex, i make money.
1:48pm
The 61.8% retracement seems to be holding alright at the 1051 level… even though we dipped slightly below it… it looks like the bulls might try to push up from here. A failure to push up from 1050 means the market is in BIG trouble.
9:38am
Wedge at around 106.30-106.40 on the SPY.. you can try and short there with a stop above… I have to leave for the morning, but I rather stay out of this type of market until we get confirmation.
9:31am
We are below the wedge, but as i mentioned last night, beware of a rally to go back above it…
2:48am
My friends, today is a day that most bears have been waiting for… but they might not be as happy as they think. Even if we open below the wedge (1051-1061) there is a chance we see a massive rally right at the beginning of the day, to save the wedge formation. The bulls are not yet fully trapped, and everyone can see that wedge formation, therefore a potential push higher is very possible. My advice is if we open below the wedge, step back.. and wait until 10:20-10:30am. You can actually go long at 1051.5 with a stop below 1050 (that’s a 61.8% retracement). You can also go short at 1060-1061 with a stop at 1063 or 1066 (if you like risk). If we do break back above the wedge.. you can actually expect a massive rally. BUT that massive rally could be the trap the bears are setting for the bulls. So i suggest you put a trailing stop on the rally and then get out at the end of the day. I have a feeling this wedge might break soon since the XLF already did. Another possible scenario is a fall to 1051 and then a strong push back up to retrace broken support as resistance (as well). Here’s an up to date (accurate) chart (60min SPX) of the wedge support and the fibs.
COCO getting crushed in a/h.
I disagree with adan, we are setting up for a crash, the prospects of medicare and higher
taxes will see a descent into the repeat of 1929/1930. Short coco, own puts on spy
and qqqq.
October 28th, 2009 at 9:37 am
I’m all for a potential crash… but i don’t konw if it’ll happen in the next few days…
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/jeremy-grantham-the-market-is-25-overvalued-15-correction-coming.html
Interesting read from a fund manager with a great record since the crash !!!
here is an ex from his post:
Corporate ex-financials profit margins remain above average and, if I am right about the coming seven lean years, we will soon enough look back nostalgically at such high profits. Price/earnings ratios, adjusted for even normal margins, are also significantly above fair value after the rally. Fair value on the S&P is now about 860 (fair value has declined steadily as the accounting smoke clears from the wreckage and there are still, perhaps, some smoldering embers). This places today’s market (October 19) at almost 25% overpriced, and on a seven-year horizon would move our normal forecast of 5.7% real down by more than 3% a year.
The expected bottom is November 3rd (+/- 1-2days).
If the bears cannot push the market below 1018 (Oct2nd low), the bullish trend will likely resume. We have about 5 more trading days to sell-off >4% to accomplish this task. Will it happen? I have no clue.
If on November 3rd we are above the 1020 level, go long.
If on November 3rd we are below the 1020 level… the market has put a short-term top.
can someone please tell me exactly where they have the 50 dma on the s&p at. i want to be sure before i make my adjustments on tza
tia
October 28th, 2009 at 8:19 am
i have 1049.22………………..is that correct.
October 28th, 2009 at 8:20 am
I have 1049.22
“Tip of the Day”. Today’s low will be the Low for the Week.
October 28th, 2009 at 9:25 am
Why do say that Al?
October 28th, 2009 at 9:28 am
that sounds reasonable. We hit a nice low and consolidate friday.
October 28th, 2009 at 9:31 am
err. thursday and friday
anyone playing AMZN?? up on good earnings..then another follow thru..then the stall..do we see the push lower to fill the gap..ie: AAPL did?
I’m still holding my QID, SCO, and SDS positions and feeling good about them. I will think about closing out the SCO if it sees the 13.50 area today. Best of luck to all!
WTF is going on with AMZN?
October 28th, 2009 at 9:47 am
I imagine that people are worried about the markets right now and are looking to park money in places that seem relatively safe and strong at the moment.
October 28th, 2009 at 10:44 am
Its the kindle rally!
October 28th, 2009 at 9:47 am
agree…i got some puts but damn this thing swings up and down…my puts are bouncing around up down up down up down..
i’m dizzy
October 28th, 2009 at 10:09 am
i am lossing hugeeeeeeeeeeee from my short on AMZN… who would have ever though this crap going above 120
October 28th, 2009 at 10:28 am
Why is AMZN crap? You have to be very careful when shorting these bigger name stocks (since they are bigger names for a reason). It is much safer to just short the sector they occupy. Best of luck to you!
October 28th, 2009 at 10:35 am
I shorted and had stop limit order but it jump up higher than my limit… my limit at 115 was not executed… next thing i knew this onc closed at 125… now just holding it get get out around 118 which i was hoping today…
SPY is tanking right now 106.08
still long faz 18.75, short fas 87.5
max profits , no sell signal yet
October 28th, 2009 at 11:29 am
bank your profit! fed can change the game any time…
IchimokuCharts http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbL1yyWlfjw
Sept. new home sales drop first time in 6 months
By Greg Robb WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – U.S. new home sales unexpectedly fell 3.6% in September, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. The decline in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 402,000 was well below the 438,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. New-home sales in August were revised to a 417,000 level compared with the previous estimate of 429,000. This is the first decline in new home sales after five consecutive monthly gains. New-home sales are down 7.8% compared with a year ago. The supply of homes on the market fell to 251,000 in September, which is the lowest level since November 1982. Median sales prices have fallen 9.1% in the past year to $204,800.
My positions are the same. See no reason to adjust them. Waiting to see if we get a real breakdown.
As I told you guys yesterday we are breaking the wedge support. So far all all my guesses are correct, although I do not know much about technical analysis and support resistence but I know these big boys very well. I am sure they will break the wedge as a fake break down and once most people strat selling panicly and go short then they start taking this market up with low volume as we have seen a lot. As I said for last few days the best short is financial and you see it leads the bear market. I like to see a panic sell off and then stalling before I go long.
October 28th, 2009 at 10:54 am
We break 1051 today?
October 28th, 2009 at 11:04 am
let us know when you see it.
October 28th, 2009 at 11:11 am
I it is now broken as it is arounf 1055. I like to see tomorrow a panic sell off. Tonight most people are scared as the wedge is broken and any bad news tomorrw could lead this market to a panic sell off. Then on firday big boys will start covering thier shorts once market is slow. If these thing happen exactly as I said then we should expect a rally on monday to tets the broken wedge and as the wedge is ascending then we could even stay below the broken wedge support and still go up. I think that is what s going to happen next week, so I have plan to go long especially on ERX on Monday or may be friday if I see the sell off tomorrow.
October 28th, 2009 at 11:16 am
thanks for the input. i agree we could see panic selling tomorrow.
October 28th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
I will be surprised if it happens.
is AMZN owned by China? MF is moving along with BIDU…lol
SPY just touched the 50 DMA 105.23
Brian Shannon live in 7 minutes
http://www.stocktwits.tv
Thanks Idan, great post today and appreciate it. Interesting spot!
i feel like a kid in a candy store.
Hi Guys,
Only my 02 cents….
Tomorrow GDP release…do you think that we will have another pop?
Anyway, some sentiment indicators are showing overbought signals. However no reversal signal were shown yet
At least for me, it is too risky for short. In another circumstances the market reversed fast & furious at those levels.
Today all sold all my Puts: GOOG, VALE, EL and GLD
CPC
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ONE:$CPCE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98782746854
McClellan
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p85162956526
SPX:CPC
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$CPC&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p12184142924
Enjoy and trade wisely!!!!
October 28th, 2009 at 11:52 am
You wrote overbought, are you suggesting oversold?
October 28th, 2009 at 11:54 am
Sorry…yes it is oversold…
I just closed 500 shares of SDS @ 40.30 for a profit of 650; I opened this position yesterday @ 39.00.
October 28th, 2009 at 11:58 am
looking to close SCO soon just to be safe; will keep my full QID position
October 28th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Great call Morris;
I am stil holding my UCO
October 28th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
Any opinions on where oil may be headed ? 75?
By the way, some of my picks for LONG. Again, I am using the same criteria, highest divergence from the SMA(100).
All of them are laggards that started to show signal of revival: AET & VRTX
October 28th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
Careful. I suspected the shakeout was done this am as the premarket would not
dive and immediate buy the dip on open.
this is professional selling, big money selling without killing the market, i suspect its
GS shoving out shares before a huge downside revision to GDP tomorrow.
The same ‘amazing resilience’ the cnbc idiotspeak has touted to the upside is now
evident to the downside. very interesting to see that even gold, oil is being sold off
with a steady effect.
This is the distribution that IBD has alluded to.
Someone knows something big. Careful on the long side.
going to cover FAS here….let FAZ run.
short fas, 87.5, cover 72.3
October 28th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
nice trade. I’m with you on Faz long from this AM (Small position).
i made a lot with my yesterday put’s
today i made options call’s… and got burned… i’m back to 0% profit….
we hit 1051… soo what do you think for the rest of the day?
October 28th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
I guess after the decline in recent days, we should not expect a quick reversal, so going long is so risky at this time. I guess we will see a panic sell of tomorrow or we will see a few days side way consolidation and then we may go higher.
If you draw a line up from mar.9 low it looks like we should be bouncing off of 1050.
double bottom at 1050 today?
i’m telling you, head and shoulders, this time will not fail….1025 necklineish area. good luck. head is 25 pts from being done.
where is everyone today? They’re missing all the fun.
October 28th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
busy having fun?
October 28th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
i bet most posting here are really bulls, not bears. when they take a licking, they disappear.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Not so fast buddy..the bulls here are up by a long shot since the bottom. I am surprised to see the number of posts DOWN big on this BIG Bear day! The bears are still haunted by the bear traps since July. Come on guys you can do it…bring it donw some more, short some more …so the bulls can trap you again…:)
October 28th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
A bearish sign. The bulls are too upset to post and there are no more bears left to post. A day like today several months back would have produced hundreds of comments.
1050 must be defended, if not I think 1024 for sure.
Is that too obvious though?
FTV Noon Report
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0hcbF3cjKY&feature=youtube_gdata
1050 breaking again time to short.
where is woo on this important day.
WHat is the next level down!!!!!???????
October 28th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
1020
maybe party if over for the bears….
Ok, I just got back in the office after teaching another class (Mondays and Wednesdays are my busy days this semester) and my sell order for SCO hit @ 13.60 while I was out. I had 4000 shares at an average of 13.15 so that is a profit of 1800. I’ve been holding this for a while so I’m glad to be out with a good profit. I do think it could run a good bit from here and I may look to reload soon. The only thing I have left is my 4000 shares of QID and I plan to hold that longer term.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Actually, I may take a position in UCO here. JON, what do you think?
October 28th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
hey moriis
I see a cop and handle formation, and a IVH wiht a neckline at 13,4 in sco
Shouldn’t we wait to see if the formation play out before enter oil long???
October 28th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
I’m not sure that I trust TA done on the charts of the levered ETFs. Also, I really need a hedge on the long side for my large QID position. I had a target of approximately 77 for oil on this recent downturn (although it could go lower) so this seems like a good place to flip from SCO to UCO, even if it is just for a quick scalp. We’ll see how it goes.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Morris…I am down some so I may be biased
but I added 700 shares to my UCO at 13.53 right now.
I now have 5500 shares of UCO and I am down around 40cents a share I can hold it for a while as I am not on margin.
I am more confident now since the auction went well and we are borrowing at record levels. IMHO dollar is about to make a new low in the coming weeks.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Thanks for the advice. I just picked up 1000 UCO so good luck to us!
1000 UCO @ 13.50
master woo should i sell my puts or anybody, i think that bullish bear might have it right.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
I think we are due for a bounce soon so it all depends on how long you are comfortable holding. I closed my shorter term short trades today (SCO and SDS) but held my longer term short trade (QID).
October 28th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
The best I think is to sell your shorts now and them put them back in at the end of today id you see market is finishing bearish. I think we may see a fake bounce at the last hour which I have to plan to take some long and them sell them at the lst 15 minitues.
Im in DRV right now and it is cranking,I was going to sell @ 1050 but thinking now to hold iot until tomorrow pre-market and sell right before GDP announcement.What do you guys think of that stratedgy?
good morning everyone.
trend line support on monthly and 6 month at that bottom.
1050.8 fib is now holding. could just rise from here. i still don’t have any positions, and just got into work a little while ago, but would have taken a call position at the 1047 long term and short term trend line hit slightly below the fib with a stop under the trend line.
currently am waiting for 1055 50ma on 5 minute to break, might consider a position at the 1050.8 area if it hits again.
but the reason i still have no current positions is because there is LOTS of resistance above here. trend lines and fibs galore….geesh…
sitting pretty this week from my huge monday profits. will wait a bit. not here to gamble hehe. good luck everyone!
oh yeah….wfc hit bottom of channel for trend line support and long term fib.
bac fell out south towards death.
xlf went straight towards a fib near low 14s as expected after breaking out of wedge and fib.
fas hit fib support and bounced.
this is actually a decent area for the market to recover, but lots of strong trend lines have broken, so be weary on both sides. the market needs some consolidation to break south more, or to break back north. could be a rough week…but with gaps all over the place, it’s going to be a lot of risk/reward…
October 28th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Thanks for that assesment woo !!!
October 28th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Looks like a match. http://pugridironsma.blogspot.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sobVyGToxg
Good day so far, but I’d like to see another 1% down. I’ve been 100% in sort since Monday as I announced here at that time. Last week I was 50% short 25% long 25% cash. If we can stay where we are now or even drop a little more I’ll hold overnight, if not I may start selling into a rally at the close. Got a feeling we’re heading way down over the next several weeks, but there may be a few sizable whipsaws during that time.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
I meant to say 100% in SHORT not SORT.
Personally I see us as having broke most of the real support. Not sure if it will take the rest of the week but I think we move to 1020, then get a nice bounce back up to 1050. Lot will depend on how long it takes us to get to 1020.
Dear oil,
In a post yesterday, I asked if you would break down today and you obliged. Thanks so much for that. Would you now be willing to rally a bit so that I can make some more money on a UCO scalp?
Your friend,
morris
October 28th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
atta boy!
October 28th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
oil really should be just a scalp because of the season, correct.
October 28th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
All of my oil trades are shorter term. I’ve done 12 trades in the UCO/SCO pair over the past 3 months (and I’m 11 for 12 after closing SCO today) so I’m averaging about one a week.
October 28th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
LOL. I was thinking of writing a letter to Ms. FAZ and tell her that I forgive her and would really like to work things out. I can look past her cankles and recent whoring about town if she just promises to drop a few pounds and climb Mt. McKinley.
October 28th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Wow, one would need a heart of gold to forgive that tramp FAZ! She has broken so many hearts over the past 7 months.
heading out for a bit; buy order in for 1000 UCO @ 13.30
Dow is still far from its wedge support, I like to see a sell of tomorrow to test the Dow’s wedge and at that time may be we will be at 1020 in S&P, that is where I like to see and go long.
It looks like AMZN is the new AAPL. Even though the QQQQ’s are underperforming SPY, AMZN insists on trading with a PE in the 70’s even with the NOOK coming out which is supposedly better than Kindle. Proves the manipulators are still at work and there is no real fear in this market.
spy calls with stops below major trend line.
let’s have some fun.
very small position.
AIG breaking HOD
October 28th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
you give them a half a trillion dollars that might help some.
do you guys really think this can go lower… for this week!
1020?… sell off tomorrow?… why?
October 28th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
1020 will take more time, but the market sold off nicely today. end of day bounce?
October 28th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
We could also bounce up against 1051 a few times and then break through to the upside. Nobody can say for sure which it will be (except maybe GS).
I think it will stay flat until the GDP announcement @ 8:30AM..I will sell my shorts in pre market tomorrow.