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27
Oct
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Follow me on twitter: korenidan87
3:38pm
The bears are really not wanting to let go… everyone can see the wedge support there, and while it might not break today, i wouldn’t be surprised to see a gap down below it (due to futures action). If we open below… get ready to go short.
1:45pm
Those November short calls on AMZN 120 are starting to look better!
1:33pm
We are currently at a double bottom, but this means we are now potentially trying to break the wedge support… you want to see a 2 day confirmation break before bears truly take control, and 1051 on the SPX is the next strong support which could provide a retest of the wedge support as resistance.
12:32pm
By the way, those who believed in me, and held the SBUX short trade due to it being on the overbought list, i think you got rewarded today.
12:26pm
We hit wedge support this morning like we expected, right on the dot, and then we had a reversal, like mentioned in the video. A break of 107.23 on the SPY, would give the bulls another chance to break higher for today. However, if that fails again, we are in trouble.. we might be breaking the wedge today… If you bought on wedge support around the 106.30 area, i suggest you have a stop at 106.80ish.
12:24pm
Sorry i’ll be busy for most of the day, but if you want me to look at some stock let me know and i’ll try to put it up. BIDU for example, is shooting up, but now with bad earnings it’s definetly a short once it hits 395 ish.
1:11am
Video for tomorrow:
Today we look at the SPX and how it’s about to hit the bottom of the wedge support where we expect o see some form of a bounce. The XLF already broke it’s respective wedge, so it looks more bearish. The S&P could fall to 1051 potentially and then bounce for a retest too, but I would rather think bullish tomorrow on a dip. We also look at the FAZ, USO, BIDU, AMZN plays here.
Well, got killed by the damn amzn run up. at least i bailed early. of the 2.6k short avg 115.65, I covered 300 at 119.33, then 600 at 120.20, then 700 at 120.75, rest 1100 at 122.50. Reshorted 650 at 124.60. Not a pretty picture, over did it.
I am guessing it would run down tomorrow. Is there anything about the fact that shorts get margin calls after the 3rd day, so MM keeps price up until after margin calls are done? That would make it Thursday.
Devastating loss of 14k there. My own damn fault.
October 27th, 2009 at 1:24 am
This should help with Target
http://www.spoofee.com/index.php?section=deal&did=624212&ref=stocktock
still short fas 87.5, long faz 18.75
October 27th, 2009 at 1:25 am
thoughts on VISA….its in a head and shoulders and broke its neckline, but retesting after hours…its reporting tomorrow after the bell…does it hit the neckline and selll off??? or contrary to the pattern go against it and RUN????
comments/thoughts?
October 27th, 2009 at 5:51 am
It depends which H&S pattern you see (timeframe too)
October 27th, 2009 at 8:33 am
the 30 and 60 min charts…neckline around 73.60 oct 16 L shoulder, oct 21 H and oct 25 R shoulder…i’m no expect, but looks like H and S to me with a neckline broken already…bounced or will bounce (as of this am) to support..so do we head south and collapse after earnings????
I switched from 50% short to 100% short first thing Monday morning. Plan to stay like this all week. Got a feeling any bounce will be very small.
October 27th, 2009 at 7:52 am
This might be a good multi-week trade.
For what its worth, the timing site I follow for investors mtrig.com issued a sell signal yesterday. The last signal was buy on 7/16, and they’ve pretty much been long since 3/13. I expect a relatively steady downtrend from here. P3? Maybe.
My 401(k) is 50% cash 50% bonds. My Roth IRA is 80% short and 20% bonds. My dinky ass trading account is almost 100% short. Good luck.
October 27th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
I’ve been sick in bed nearly all day and sleeping, but just got up to find your reply and the market down. Glad to see both. It looks like we’re in good shape. Good luck to you my friend, and lets see a continued sell off.
Great Video and information, Idan, thanks for covering uso!
Wow bidu down $83
Heads up fellows, when I called my broker to short some stocks this morning, my broker said they’re running low on shares that can be borrowed. This is an alarm to me as too many people got too bearish too quickly. Are we going to see a massive short squeeze again?
I’m going to be either hedging my short positions or exiting my unhedged shorts. Better be safe than sorry.
October 27th, 2009 at 9:25 am
Fritz you still looking for a run to 1080 today
October 27th, 2009 at 9:26 am
Yes.
Bidu!
be short and be strong! i am short a whole bunch of 5% OTM calls here….and long the 10% OTMs. happy to sit short into the bounce, if any. will prob add puts into any rallies…
if qqqq’s and nasdaq support break should lead to another push lower. holding some qid.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:00 am
First breach of Nasdaq support
October 27th, 2009 at 10:12 am
bot some ssg short semis would like to see smh break 25.20 convincingly.
Tip for Today. This afternoon watch for a a head fake higher then an EOD drop with a Low-of-the-Day close.
Picked up a 115/105 AMZN put spread for $2, I think it is good risk/reward.
I hate to disappoint the bears, but the powers that be are not ready to let the market tank just quite yet.
The big play I am researching is a series of call spreads on the vix. Look how a few percentage points down drove VIX from 21 – 24. Look at the chart from earlier in the year. Does anyone here see LESS volatility in the coming months?
Dec. may be too early, Jan thru April looking good. $40/$50 spreads could yield 30 – 50 baggers for the fun money plays, $25/$30 seem like locks.
As I suspected….P2 trendline gone !!! Party on bears.
onsumer Confidence Fell in October From the Previous Month
October 27th, 2009 at 10:07 am
Consumer Confidence Fell in October From the Previous Month, party time bears !
I just stopped out of the 200 FAS that I picked up yesterday near the close; in @ 78.00 and out @ 76.00 for a loss of 400. No biggie. Still holding QID and SCO.
Any Canadians – Do you do options on the Canadian side (like HXD or others) or is the Canadian market just not liquid enough? I’m having trouble spotting many active Canadian options.
Thanks
October 27th, 2009 at 10:12 am
TSX options suck. Wait till the down trend fully exerts itself, otherwise you’re just throwing your money away on time value.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:36 am
I thought so, sure take away a great aspect of trading.
October 27th, 2009 at 11:05 am
This is my dilemma too, I think unless you know a sure bet, which doesn’t come often it’s difficult to play the Canadian options. Some of the ones I’ve tried that had small spreads between the bid and ask are, FNX, SU, POT, K, ishares ETFs are not that volatile but there is a smaller spread between the bid and ask.
My question is how can you justify buying US stock options, specially calls, when the US dollar goes up as well as your call option. Then you take a hit on the exchange too because you bought the US $ more expensive when buying and they buy it back cheaper.
October 27th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Timing the Canadian market is actually simpler than timing the US market; however, I’d still rather short the equity itself than to play TSX options unless we’re in a strong up/down trend.
October 27th, 2009 at 11:21 am
Do you play the US options? If so how do you deal with the currency issue?
still long FAZ 18.75, short FAS 87.5
(max profits)
October 27th, 2009 at 10:39 am
Same here, I’m blindly holding 1000 FAZ since high 18s.
Blindly holding it like when bulls blindly held on from March.
Fully hedged short. Looking to dump longs at S&P 1075, potentially 1080, but better be safe than sorry.
Congrats Idan, you called the wedge bottom to perfection.
Ha, a bearish consumer confidence number comes out and the market turns upward right afterwards. More evidence that trading the news is pointless.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:38 am
News only matter on planned broad market debasements, which only happens about 3 – 4 times a year. Other times if anyone trades the news, he/she is begging for money to be taken away.
Target on this upswing should be 1076 to 1080. I would put stops on my longs for sure.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:35 am
I will dump my in the money hedges purchased at wedge bottom at that point and keep my out of the money hedges.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:38 am
I bet you a dollar that we don’t see 1080 today.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:40 am
176 tops imo
October 27th, 2009 at 10:50 am
i say 1079
CRE will surprise to the upside? im thinking that is the story “excuse” that CNBC runs to pop the market back up again. this move feels very fishy and contrived. just like many of the other corrective moves. like always… caution.
my positions are so small….. im a spectator here.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:41 am
DRE calls… another illiquid option position. manage to get ONE CONTRACT lol.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:42 am
cancelling the order for the rest. i have to re-think what im doing here and why im here. going by my rules used to work. now i need to look at sticking to more basic trading rules. smaller returns are better than kick in the pants.
AMZN still not dropping and continues to act strong…any thoughts?
casino stocks are taking it on the chin today lvs wynn mgm mpel
Interesting tug of war in commodity stocks today. Very heavy volume in base metals stocks (like AA and FCX) and precious metal stocks and fertilzer stocls like POT. So far, we have traded about 40% to 50% of average daily volume. This tells me that are committed sellers who think the market will go down. Since some of these stocks are not down much, it also says that there someone is buying.
A little run up now in the spx to 1076 would coincide nicely with a retest of the 38.2% fib in the EUR/USD pair I mentioned yesterday. This is what I’m watching for , if they line up I will add to my EUR/USD short position.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:57 am
If that was the extent of the retrace I’m very disappointed.
picked up 500 SDS @ 39.00
October 27th, 2009 at 10:53 am
picked up our favorite SCO 1000 @ 13.00
October 27th, 2009 at 11:10 am
my average on 4000 shares is 13.15 and I may start closing some out if we see the 13.50 area again today
October 27th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
So this is what it’s like to have been a bull for the last 7 months.
I keep buying inverse ETFs and puts and shorts… and I may lose money for a few minutes, but then I go out for some chores and then boom, profits. I keep thinking there’s no more to go down, but just in case I buy some TZA/FAZ on prie drops and I go to the bathroom and boom.. more profits. This is great.
—- BGU —- trailing stop failed to trigger. had to take break even on the trade. quite a nice push there. this market may be tired but its not done. they are supporting 1065 and selling 1070. very interesting.
——— SHLD ———– this one looks like it wants to go higher. last 3 days on lighter volume. now trading above the gap made on earnings call in August. all is forgotten.
October 27th, 2009 at 11:21 am
$70 NOV CALL ….. the chart says double top being served up soon?.. this is what i see coming and thier is strong support at $70. ONLY ONE CONTRACT!
October 27th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Richard, I see the H&S forming on this … the only reason this is not falling is the 200 MA on the 10 min – this is the secnd hit
If 72 breaks …. this would fall straight to 70 … be careful
*annoyed* the EUR/USD needs to pretend some strength here soon or I’m going to faint from hunger before I get a chance to increase my short.
X – H&S break …. first tgt 37.5 … then 30 …
October 27th, 2009 at 11:42 am
CONSOLIDATION BORING YOU?
this is a funny video from a guy pizzed off about the
looting of the American People.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTuW1a1avnI
AMZN at LOD underperforming markets today…
October 27th, 2009 at 11:23 am
go go….die
October 27th, 2009 at 11:34 am
PALM is trying to race AMZN to the bottom and currently winning
Is it possible to have a consumerless recovery ? and at the same time for gold prices to be above $1000 should mean something as far a fear and inflation, right?
October 27th, 2009 at 11:44 am
sure you can have a consumerless recovery … just not in the USA.
October 27th, 2009 at 11:48 am
but they are claiming that the economy is recovering and the markets keep on running. Forclosures are at a 3 month high, unemployment is at near a high ( real numbers would reflect 16-17%).
I guess now I understand what they used to say: “whats good for people is not good for the markets and whats good for the markets are not good for the people……… go figure
October 27th, 2009 at 11:55 am
You should read that article over at zero hedge about how the govrnment basically bought equities.
Pretend all they want, prop all they want , eventually the market will sort out the truth. We dodged a depression they say , with this great quantitative easing experiment, we shall see if dodging a depression was really what we should have done in the coming years.
We have violated the free market principals to an extent that fundamentally changes the rules. We will answer for it , but most likely “the people” are the ones who will pay it not wallstreet.
Fritz – JPM @ 44.50 – still looking to enter short at this price or higher ?
October 27th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Looking for JPM $45 or if/when SPX reaches 1076. If I miss both, I’m fine with it.
AXP $36.00 short order waiting to be filled.
October 27th, 2009 at 11:57 am
AXP short order filled.
October 27th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Why is SPY lagging so badly?
Considering taking some UNG will that be god idea???
October 27th, 2009 at 11:54 am
HNU.TO looks decidedly bearish. im steering clear. you will have to pray for a really really nasty cold snap for price to recover. or the USD$ to go Kapoof. the latter is more likely.
BIDU-retraced back to around the 50D SMA. Took shot and sold a naked Nov 400C for $10.20
My market indicators ERX is up again 4%, but FAS is still very bearish. I think the best strategy for the last few weeks and also going forward is to go long on energy and short financial. So having ERX and FAZ in your portfolio would be a perfect strategy I see. Having stop loss is a must though in both positions.
Still waiting for 1.48428 on EUR/USD to materialize or at least within a couple pips so I can add to my short.
October 27th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
looks like I don’t get my price
Ah well , guess I will have to be satisfied with the position I have already for the moment as I watch this bear flag execute.
October 27th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
In case anyone wants to know my current postions are :
FAZ @ 18.00
EUR/USD Short @ 1.50160
I’m of the opinion with the bear flag execution on the EUR/USD the market is going to roll over red now for the rest of the day. So I’m done for today just going to sit on my positions and take a look for a retrace tomorrow and try and add to that pair trade again.
SPX 1072.48 is roughly 38.2% retracement of the drop from 1091.75 to 1060.78, hence why the market has trouble breaking it. I’m going to close my hedges soon.
Time for the bears to come out of hibernation.
—RSH— covered 1/2 of short shares $17.68
October 27th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
—SHLD— trading pennies under support. seems like this is a suck in for the shorts. find out soon. this market is finding good support at 1065 so far.
Next touch of the bottom of that wedge channel looks to come into play around 2-2:15 market time. It looks to want to touch SPY at 105.65ish area in my opinion. This would work nice with Woo’s fib as well. It could break down faster than this of course. But the way the MM’s are working, I am not so sure.
AXP again behaved like I want it to. Cha-ching! Still kept my SSO hedge. If this is the wave 5 down, we’re bound to see an A-B-C correction to the upside, so I’d rather keep the hedge and short every rally.
October 27th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Oops, a little too early to celebrate
No worries, though, I’m hedged so I’ll try to ride AXP down to $34.80
———— SHLD ————– lost support on increasing volume. taking my lumps again.
getting out of this trade. RSH …. im out of this short now too.
October 27th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
sold my PUT CONTRACT when SHLD was $71,50 … it looks like $72 is gone. now trading under $71
———- BCAA TRAVEL ———- friend of mine tells me his sister-in-law has lost her job. rumour is that all thes BCAA TRAVEL locations will be shut down. they are located in many of RioCan properties. im shorting this REIT again. REI/UN.TO in at $17.64 … trading under the 20ma
October 27th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
I’m in Vancouver and it’s true, was on the news yesterday.
really swamped at work today folks. so i’ll be out most of the day. that 1060 area was a good place to buy calls earlier because of a trend line and fib. now it’s sitting above a 1065 fib at the moment. if that long term linear 8 month trend line breaks to the south the bears could gain a lot of ground.
good luck everyone. i probably won’t have a chance to trade today.
—- IBOC —- still sitting in puts i bought in September. ALAS the 20ma is turning south. these NOV puts have decayed despite the stock not moving. this is one of my final positions to clear and then im going to have just a couple of small positions.
SDS entry today @ 39.00 is looking good, QID is looking strong, and SCO is starting to move back up again. Whew, I’m glad that I did not capitulate on Monday morning!
October 27th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
watch uso on it’s support levels–you may get rewarded.
October 27th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
im in post Capitulation mode. i was down alot and now im mostly
covered up at lower prices. now if IBOC would behave with the rest
of the fins ill be happy.
Shorts, please be careful and watch for the October 6th high to hold on SPX. Don’t get sucked in and trapped!
I believe we should stay short on finacial until the wedge is broken. I believe the wedge will be broken and we will see the price hovering around that level for 1 or 2 days as a fake break down. I am waitng to see somthing like this before I unload my short on finacial, I believe after a fake break out may be at the beginning of next week or middle of next week we will go head and start another round of rally at least toward 1100 or maybe 1120. I believe we should have ERX as a hedge to our short in finacial.
The market cannot make up its mind. Have a busy week so cant check the board often. My UCO is not moving today as I thought it would
GLTA