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26
Oct
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Follow me on twitter: korenidan87
3:33pm
Moving stops to 20.75.. about to get stopped out (7.5% profit on this one )… and i’m gone for the day, will have a video out though!
3:19pm
FAZ stops to $20.65 (that’s a guaranteed 7%).
2:43pm
Moving Faz stop to 20.25 now…
2:27pm
Moving Faz stops up to 20.10 now… (that’s basically a 4.5 % locked in). If you shorted at 40.40 USO… like i mentioned.. make sure your stops are trailing (and you’re profitable no matter what).
1:54pm
I still got my GOOG sold november calls at 580… which i’m just banking premium on.. everyday time value works in my favor.
1:37pm
Stopped out of USO short at 40.20 (+1.9%), you can attempt another short at 40.35-40.40 with a stop above. My stop on FAZ is $19.80.
1:03pm
The ascending wedge is less than 10 points below us! it’s right now around 1060 on the SPX…. the XLF already broke it’s asceding wedge.. btw an update on my positions: AMZN still got those short nov calls at 4.80 a piece… Also I have faz long from this morning at 19.29$, and shorted USO at 40.80$… I have trailing stops on both… these 2 trades came from what I was saying yesterday about the market.
12:55am
The futures are slightly higher, but there is one big level to watch out for in the market and that is 1074-1075 on the SPX… we have already double bottomed there, so one more retest could be the end of this support. A break of that (blue line in my SPX 60 minute chart) would mean a flush lower and a start of another potential correction (at least like the ones we’ve had before) to around the 1052ish area. That said, as long as we remain above it, taking the SPX long with a stop underneath is a good trade.
USO has a great trade about to unfold. As you can see on the 10 minute USO chart, if we break back below $40.90 (and we’ve retested breakout as support for 3 tries) we will fall to the 40.40 level (great trade there). And if we fall below 40.40.. then we’re in trouble on the USO. This should put a damp on markets too. A break of the triangle to the upside at 41.40, would mean another potential 3-4% leg higher.
Finally take a look at FAZ 30 minutes. Even though I got stopped out with about 0.5% profits on friday, if we can stay above that crucial red line around the 19.10-19.15 area, I’ll take a big long position as that would pretty much strengthen the chance of the inverse H&S formation going to completion (with stops underneath of course), and the target would be around $21.40.
erx has a good amount support in the current area.
Idan, what is your next support level on USO?
October 26th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Right now.. there just isn’t that much.. yes we do have some at 39.90ish.. maybe some at 39.60 ish.. but it really goes down to 38$ to see it happen. I have a trailing stop of around 30 cents here… i’m up already significantly, so i’m just slowly pushing this up.
October 26th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
Thanks, only one I could find was at $38.24, have trailer on mine also.
as idan pointed out above, xlf fell out of the wedge and below a fib. not a bad idea to grab a small position, and have stops above that trend line we fell out of. it’s an ascending trend line, so you may have higher stops everyday, but those are also positions you can add to your shorts. i won’t be dipping in just yet, and will wait for a possible backtest of the line in a day or two.
Order to short BAC @ $16.25 now out there (I changed my mind and adjusted my target short price from $15.70).
October 26th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
Fritz – what changed your mind ?
October 26th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Just don’t want to be trapped on a petential violent snap-back. I want to be safe than sorry. Nothing technical about this decision.
ABSOLUTE INSANITY …. 22PT SWING IN THE SPX …. dollar bouncing off lows
mostly out of this market . DRE is not confirming upside. guess it confirms when it gaps up 20% one morning. RSH,. im out of half just below $18 and now im patiently waiting.
puts that im keeping : IBOC FUN
no long positions ——— really glad to be out of AMZN and PCLN
October 26th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
i know what a ridiculous move. hit the top of a channel and a fib and just tanked down from there. i didn’t think it would go that far north and actually hit that trend line, but it was a golden opportunity. i would never have added to my position if it started dropping before that.
1068.8 is area to watch.
Any thoughts on a position in BIDU
———- IDAN ———- how crowded is your trade being short the NOV CALLS in AMZN?. ive seen a few posts calling for the stock to get above $130 in the near term.
October 26th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
I have 10 contracts at 4.80 on the november calls.. that’s slightly above 1% of my portfolio… i like it even if it shoots above 130 for a few days and goes back to 120 i make money.
Wow, I was on the verge of capitulation on Friday morning. The only positions that I had left were QID, SCO, and SKF and things were not looking good in the premarket. I took the day off from trading on Friday and let the positions ride and fortunately things went my way. However, things were looking bad again this morning and I almost dumped the whole lot. I’m so very glad that I held. This market is really trying on one’s nerves though. I still need to get refocused. Best of luck to all today!
October 26th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
You might have had good discipline without knowing it!
October 26th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
I think I was just lucky to have my real job take me away from the computer screen for a few hours this morning.
October 26th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
I know how it feels. I was really close to capitulation Friday morning, too. I took off half of my short exposures Friday morning so I could focus better on my analysis without so much emotion. I am growing more and more confident that my short date of October 19 was good, but I didn’t have strong enough mental toughness to ride it out.
I’ll decide which short positions to add based on the action at EOD.
FWIW this is the 3rd inside reversal of the month. Impossible odds for this to have happened
at the 10K level?
Anyone follow the inside reversal dates as they relate and predict pending doomish declines?
Oct 87 had 2 such days, need to see a close below prior bottom to confirm, not good at this stuff
except to note that patterns tend to repeat—repeat–repeat–repeat—repeat–repeat-repeat—repeat–repeatrepeat—repeat–repeatrepeat—repeat–repeat
RATSHACK UP? I THOUGHT THEY WENT AWAY?
Anyone playing BIDU?
October 26th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
trying to get feedback on puts WOO you outthere
October 26th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
Idan/Woo…. Any comment?
October 26th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
haven’t charted it yet. i don’t know if i’ll be able to chart before market day ends. i’m pretty swamped at work, but can probably chart after market. sorry!
October 26th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Until BIDU breaks the blue line i charted last week as suppose (now at 411 and ascending) i’m not touching it.
the way this sucker is fiddling with fibs and staying UNDER a trend line, it leaves a strong possibility open for a drop to 1060. if this stays under 1070 all day. watch out below.
October 26th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Woo, of what if any signif is the 3rd inside reversal day inside of a month period?
Everyone seems to miss this crucial warning flag until too late, or am i making troo much of it?
October 26th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
similar thing happened in june, but on a larger scale. i wouldn’t be surprised if we get similar movement with a rise and larger drop to come to 1051 or so.
then i think we’ll rise up and top off in the 1118-1120 area.
basically saw a short term wedge that broke to the south. volatile times like this is where big money can be made and lost. have to be careful. i’m not entering any positions lightly, and i always have stops.
good luck!
October 26th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
ZZ or double correction appearing it seems. A slightly lower low would accomplish both.
Still sitting on my FAZ @ 18.00 . Content with todays action , as I said a couple weeks ago , if the financials are not leading there is no reason to follow. They have been a leading indicator for a couple weeks now.
I am fully loaded on UCO now
added 1K more at 13.89. I now have 4.8K shares…
—- IM ON TOTAL TILT —- how on gods earth can anyone come out and upgrade a POS STORE like Radio Shack when Best Buy can barely keep it going. and Amazon sells alot of what RSH sells. im totally done with all this garbage. NYT goes flying higher. i get out of my short at $10.70 and then a week later they state the obvious and the thing goes back to where i got in. Radio Shack is garbage in this economy. im not covering all of it. im waiting it out. RSH is no AMZN …
October 26th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
my money says we finish the day at 1077… because everything is a suck in
October 26th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Richard, share your frustration. Even think expectations on earnings are being lowered to boost consumer confidence (market now using whisper numbers). Ultimately, the truth will come out, just a matter of when.
Theory..todays action is the start of a massive dollar short squeeze. Recently dollar was at
97% bull sentiment which is never sustainable. Commercials have steadily been adding to their long positions and are now exactly the opposite to where they were in March at the start of the dollar decline. The commercials are almost alwayson the right side.
AMZN starting to show a little weakness
October 26th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
JON are you still holding your put
currently wedging…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p93950643434&a=181738042
POT has about filled a gap set a few wks ago at 97.60.
Just set a double bottom ar 97.77
Will play the bounce if it reaches the 97.60
October 26th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
got in 97.52. got out 97.61. even trade.
Too risky today.
Sitting 100% short now, with FAZ, SKF, SRS, and TZA. If anybody has any opinions on which of these might be the safest and best bets to make some money I’d be grateful for your opinion.
– RSH — I ADDED above $18 .. im down to this one and DRE …. trade them through
have to be honest. its all guessing for me here. the technicals on both of these are speaking in a tongue im not familiar with. how many gap ups can i be in? if DRE gaps up and im still in it i believe i’ll completely lose it. both these companies are crap.
October 26th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
BGU — since im stuck in these 2 im hedging again with BGU a buck cheaper
than where i exited. looking for 1077 …. pull the handle, its the slots.
October 26th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
stop at $51.80
Sorry forgot name of guy having Woo-Fii issues, here is some more reading and stuff of int
http://hackedgadgets.com/
hope not breaking rules with linx.
BTW market tanking big time, this is going to accel into close as the buy the slip reversers are
caught flat footed. Telling all that will listen that the intra day reversals are same as what lead
to drop in oct ‘87.
Last friday was a key gartley reversal date which anticipates a major downtrend is settingup.
long term fib at 1065.3 we need to stay down lower to make a mark there, still above it clearly on the 60 minute
Idan – can you share your opinion on MOS – I bought at 54 on the break of the triangle … and thought it was making a flag ….
wondering if I should just take the huge loss or sell the 50 calls against my almost worthless 55 calls …. and make myself breakeven …
October 26th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Well the problem si that you don’t stop yourself.. you need to have a trailing stop at profit as soon as possible.. we have H&S on that stock.. to me that stock looks broken… i wouldn’t sell the 50 calls… maybe sell whatever’s left of the SP above 55.
October 26th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
Idan – you are right about that … maybe this may be good advice for a lot of us here … I am frrustated as my calls are right but not being able to profit as much – sometimes even ending up with loss on them ….
I play small number of contracts – 2 or 3 at most … commission @ 9.99 + 0.75 from e-trade … so essentially, 10% of profits is both sides commission and I cannot sell the same day I buy.
So how do you suggest placing stops in this case ?
Looking at SPX charts, we have been between 1067 and 1070 for the since about 12 o clock. The market seems to be stabilizing. This is the 2nd big down day in a bullish scenario. It is uaually followed by a move up. Bought ABX
My last P2 trendline (lowest one) will break later today or tomorrow. good luck being long.
October 26th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
i have a major trend line at 1058ish right now. could you send over a chart. you have peaked my interest =)
October 26th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/wooew6-month-1120
October 26th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
I also have a major trend line at 1058 ish for later this week. I doubt we break the uptrend tomorrow though. I can see a possible break on Wednesday, but not tomorrow.
October 26th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
My line at the same place …
Woo – this is the line connecting from March lows through the July lows on SPX … on the linear scale … not log…
October 26th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
yeah i also have that line on my other chart. i persoanlly like the linear chart much better.
still long faz 18.75, short fas 87.5
here’s the 1 month chart. RED trend line holding.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/woo1month-30?context=user
– AMZN — showing weakness today. it is only up 4.8% when it should be up at least 12% if it was showing half as strong as Friday.. LOL
October 26th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
I am almost killed with this mf… down 25%
I would like to point out to those playing for a buy the dip scenario – The EUR/USD today broke an uptrend line it’s been sporting since October 2nd. It retraced hard enough to strike the 38.2% fib of that whole rise in just this morning with no bounces. You need to respect this momentum changer I think.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAhCMI1cjXM
will likely close my SKF position soon just to be safe
October 26th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
out at 25.30 (2000 shares and my average was 25.00); +600.00
I was underwater for a while on this trade so I am happy to be out with any profit.
October 26th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Good one !!
Any profit is good … am learning that lesson …
BGU …. moved my stop up just under $52 as a bounce needed to come sooner imo
if we dont start moving higher now im out of this long hedge and holding small
positions short. this market has managed to wear me out in one week.
be short and be strong!
Buying SPY calls into the close.
—– TUESDAY — how often does tuesday continue the trend of Monday? i have no idea but im just staying with what i have. no energy left.
October 26th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
next time you have to end that comment with “no erx left”
get it?…ok nm…
I’m selling SPX 1080 tomorrow, and long into EOD.
October 26th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Are you still short JPM?
October 26th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
No unfortunately I got out too early at $44.50, no worries though, I’ll short it again @ close to $45.00
200 FAS @ 78.00
October 26th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Nice to see you bullish
I wanted to get into FAS but I will wait till tomorrow.
October 26th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
Well, I wouldn’t say I was bullish. I’m just looking for a quick scalp on the long side for tomorrow. I still have my QID and SCO positions.
Anyone know why CRE is still strong today? Or why SRS out performing DRV?
October 26th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
I wondered the same thing. My thoughts are that we have a bunch of CREs reporting this week and next, so there is still a lot of pumping going on.
But who knows…
October 26th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
look at my post on MAC . i read alot on this one over the weekend and it is strange but it is business as usual for this regional mall owner. everything is getting re-financed at lower rates. people are coming in on joint ventures. they are chopping the debt. they have an over allotment on the equity issue they just announced on Friday. the whole thing is bizarre to read if you are ultra bearish like me. it certainly does not sound like a depression is coming. the most recent project they are completing is a high end centre called “Santa Monica Place” and they already have fantastic anchor tenants. bizarro world we are in.
October 26th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Post on MAC?
October 26th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
PAGE 1 # 17
going to sell faz and tza and take profits still holding some qid.
in cash going into tomorrow. no positions.
—- ZION —- been on the biggest loser list alot today. this one is exposed to alot of CRE no? this web is getting so bizarro. the CREs are strong. the banks exposed to CREs are weak?
What a beautiful day guys, both my indicator FAS & ERX were down significntly which helped me concluded that market is in a free fall and thanks to iden who helped me trdae FAZ today very well. The intersting thing is that they also finished very bearish. I guess any move higher in this market could just be a new opportunity to buy FAZ and ERY. The only thing I am afraid of is that big boys are looking for bears to put them in a trap and use them to rally this market to 1120 by short squeeze bears, so we need to watch and see once the correction stops how this market is goinf to go on, will this going on to take the 1100 out or will any rally be a new opportunity to go short. I like you guys especially Idan to addrees these concerns in coming days. Thanks everyone
As of today’s close, balance on my remaining shares short: up $32,000 from where I shorted them on October 19 (up roughly $2000 from Friday’s positions)
My options are nicely up now, and again I dumped COF calls early and bought them back later for a discount. I’ll keep doing this until I get out of COF unscathed.
Looking to short JPM, AXP, BAC, VALE, V, MMM, DIS, INTC, IBM and DXD (day trade) tomorrow.
October 26th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
very nice fritz =)
October 26th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Nice one fritz.
i just get this feeling the downmove has a lot further and faster to run, the gut
tells me to stay short but bullish bear tells me to go long?
Gold and emerg mrkets have so much to fall, they will surprise to the downside.
October 26th, 2009 at 5:34 pm
I’m no expert but went into this day 100% short and did very well. I’m thinking we have a lot more downside in the immediate future.
October 26th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Great one Fritz … am short BAC 16 calls against my other useless NOV 19 BAC calls … thanks for your inputs today…
Do you also have prices in mind, where you are looking to short ?
———- CRE ———- everyone is talking about this being the “next bomb to drop” but from the last 2 read upson DRE and MAC it seems they are staving off “execution” pushing repayments out, refinancing at lower rates. the CRE bubble may not burst until 2011 . if you look at what DRE is doing to shuffle out payments they may just report ok numbers this week. im not into holding into earnings anymore..enough pain.
here is a link to DRE website and a recent investor presentation explaining CDS and debt repayment terms. cheap money will keep this lie going for much longer imho.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MzUzMTc0fENoaWxkSUQ9MzQzMzk3fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1
http://investor.dukerealty.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=60691&p=irol-irhome
im going to exit my DRE this week. im at break-even and this is better than ive been doing. im not sure the market is pricing in what happens in 2 years. my outlook for DRE is clouded with doubts. the chart , however, has become completely neutral.
October 26th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
the WEEKLY chart in DRE is decidedly bullish. the 20ma has crossed above a slightly rising 50ma and below a flat 200ma. the stock is trading under the upper BB. the volume has been fair since this one hit the MARCH lows. if you are in this trade short it is time, imo, to take extreme caution. after reviewing the weekly chart, im thinking i get out of my short and take a small call position.
October 26th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
I think CRE might be a diversion. Look out for unexpected JPM, BAC, C, GS, MS, WFC, and other ‘too big to fail’ becomes ‘not big enough to cause any damage’.
Woo Hoo BIDU took a dump AH,,
BIDU around 388 AH
October 26th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
this bitch when i shorted it went to 430 from 395
I covered it at 417) I wasn’t wrong about being overbought but I guess my luck and timings are always turn around… look at AMZN taken the biggest hit and still sittling on losss
Woo hoo BIDU dumped AH
October 26th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
Did you play? I was thinking but missed it.. Anyway
yeah only 4 contracts though
Will short DXD @ DOW 9850 (DXD 33.74) tomorrow. Certain stocks may be rolling over, but they won’t go down without taking out as many people as possible. I will cover DXD short @ DOW 9980 or get stopped out any point beyond DOW 9934 (DXD 33.16).
I will also short Dow Chemical tomorrow, still deciding target price.