|
23
Oct
|
Follow me on twitter: korenidan87
3:58pm
Shorting the AMZN 120 calls nov here at 4.80$ a contract…. also got stopped out of FAZ at 19.45$ (after raising it slightly) nice little trade there.
3:25pm
Faz position looks good for now… i’m moving my stop to $19.40 (0.15% profit) at least.
1:41pm
FAZ needs to confirm the breakout before i’m happy about my position. As of right now, it just looks like it’s having a hard time breaking it forming a potential reversal candle. 15 minute FAZ.
1:35pm
I’m long FAZ here at 19.36… putting a stop at 19.10
1:30pm
I’m long FAZ if it reaches 19.30 and holds for more than 10 minutes.
12:21pm
The market is sort of ignoring what’s happening to AMZN at the moment. The XLF has broken down under it’s neckline again, and has already tested it as resistance, now it’s testing the wedge support, a breakdown below that would be a short opportunity. Here’s the 15 minute XLF:
11:30am
Woah.. thank got i got to my trading desk only now… AMZN at 120 will be the short with this type of action. Selling the 115 or the 110 november calls here look good on the increased volatility!
3:03am:
Futures are little changed despite being up substantially earlier today due to AMZN’s blow out quarter. I believe AMZN could reach a pontetial target of 120, but will pause at 112 and 108 before hand. Support will be very strong at 104. So i’m proposing the following trade: IF Amazon rises towards the 109-110 mark, go ahead and short the stock with a stop above 112. IF Amzn falls to 104.30, buy some of the 105 nov calls, and wait for a bounce towards the 107-108 level and short the nov 110 calls forming a very nice hedged play.
Yesterday I wrote: Stopped of AMZN afterhours cuz of earnings , at $95 (-1.4%). But now it’s on the very overbought list.. and i’m willing to take a short again haha. Fib targets line up towards a possible top at 107.50-108.50 on AMZN… willing to short and put a stop at -109. A stronger peak lies at 112$ where.. but the strongest peak will probably be at $120. I think shorting the 110 november calls on AMZN on any continuation of this rally is the way to go. Strong support lies at 104-104.30 on AMZN.
Google on the other hand is a different story, Google looks more overbought to me than AMZN after its earnings. I believe google will probably not see 580 by november and if it does resistance around that area will probably push it back down before option expiration. Therefore I love my trade of shorting the 580 nov calls at $4.80 a contract.
———- FINAL 10MIN SHORT COVERING ?? ——–
October 23rd, 2009 at 3:50 pm
SRS $9.75 is a big level. tagged it.
October 23rd, 2009 at 3:54 pm
might be- but tempered by sellers going into the wk-end.
New plan by Obama on Monday for financials. Is it another day to print more money? Should be interesting, one way or another.
— BANK TRADING PROFITS — HAVE been a huge piece of the puzzle in earnings. if they find it more difficult to send the market higher they may just tank it to continue thier profitable ways. whatever works for the big boys will happen.
i toook more BGU just above 1075 and now im fully hedged short.
October 23rd, 2009 at 3:59 pm
im not comfortable even with my very bearish stocks being short over this weekend. what has happened here today makes me feel neutral.
October 23rd, 2009 at 4:00 pm
glad i bailed on my AMZN puts … so far. that is one bizarre move for a large cap
POMO boys must have come out of a afternoon meeting and got busy
theres a chance this could be an ABC flat correction. and we could just see a gap up, and a break into new highs going into next week. be careful everyone, we wedged, and wedges are always dangerous.
October 23rd, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Woo, other than T/A, do you not think Wall Street will start pissing on Obama for his new policies? OR, does he already have the market changers in his pocket?
October 23rd, 2009 at 6:12 pm
well if you look at history, although some may disagree with me, i think obama has been putting a LOT of policies and changes in place that go opposite of the policies put in place prior to times of prosperity and low deficit in the US economy. he’s spending way too much money, letting the government grow too large, and trying to fix too much all at once. i’m not saying i have a better answer, but one thing is certain and agreed upon by a vast majority of the stocktock family here, which is that what is currently put in place is not working, and is not going to work. in the end everything that has been implemented hasn’t really helped anything at all if you ask me, and is creating a bubble to make things worse. almost everyone here on stocktock is saying the market prices are all overinflated and BS. no company receiving bail out money “fixed” or “changed” anything, they all did the exact same thing to make back money, that they originally did that made them lose all their money in the first place. in the end, if a company fails, they’ve still got tax payer dollars to cover their ass, so what did obama fix? absolutely nothing. and now the deficit is a ridiculous amount, we’ve got a trillion extra dollars that will eventually be “flowing” into the US economy, where does this money come from? NOWHERE. it doesn’t exist. it’s fake money.
the real downfall of the american economy began with the abuse of leverage. people borrowing money (credit), and spending more than they can afford, with no realistic intention of paying it back. when you have the whole US economy using credit cards, every bank and large company trading on margin/leverage, all houses and real estate being bought with loans….what do you get? tons and tons and tons of money in the economy which doesn’t exist. the california government did this, borrowing money from the future, even doing stupid crap like IOU’s on tax refunds. so say everyone is buying a house with mortgage, and has student loans, and has credit card debt, or at least one of the 3. if 304 million people owe an average of $1, then there is $300 million dollars in the economy that is borrowed from the future and doesn’t really “exist”. even if we say half are children, we know that the avg american owes more than $1, even if 50% of those adults don’t have any debt, we know there are just as many that have student loans of $150k or mortgage payments of $100-$400k. and on top of that, if i buy a house for $400k with $200k of that being on loan, if somebody buys that FROM me, they are probably also buying it based on a loan which means even MORE money is being pumped into the market that doesn’t exist. lovely.
i am not saying credit/leverage is bad, but i AM saying that it has been abused, and the current economy from banks falling apart because of mortgage/stock leveraging that fell apart, to people buying 2-5 condos/houses trying to turn a profit before the housing market crashed….all couldn’t afford to be wrong and were.
so eventually people will realize this more and more, sometime in the near future, hyperinflation will “REALLY” kick in, where you’ll see the dollar devalue a ridiculous amount over the course of a week. and the stock market will probably go to crap, maybe in the 300-400 range.
and to bring this all together, obama is a great speaker, he is a sweet talker. he gets you to feel giddy and inspired. but crooks are great speakers, billy mays was a great speaker (not a crook though), but i don’t necessarily need a special device to water plants that are hard to reach, i also have bought a good amount of informercial stuff that sure sounded good, but was pure crap when i got it. obama has a different presence than bush (bush just came off as dumb). obama comes off as smart, but i think that he is a retard when it comes to fixing the economy, taxes, and making policies. universal healthcare should NOT be the issue right now, when the whole economy is about to go to crap over the next few years. he’s also got the minority card, so he won’t be hated on as much by most of the civilized world. but when all is said and done, i hope that obama isn’t seen as some amazing pioneer or savior. i blame all of america. i blame greedy large institutions. but i definitely also blame obama. i hated george bush, but there is a differentiation that needs to be made. obama is likeable and is a good president in that way, but he’s a moron in terms of everything else that matters to the economy. he won’t be hated on, market changers, everybody including the american people are in his pocket. if i’m trying to make peace in the world, i want obama as president. if i want a better economy than what already exists, i rather have bush (although that is not even remotely an ideal candidate). i’ll see everyone at the bottom. everyone here is going to make a killing as the economy tumbles, and i hope we make enough to cover the rate of inflation. for that i thank obama. he is my ticket to fortune.
October 23rd, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Don’t you think we should have gotten another leg down in that wedge though Woo? I got short at yesterdays high and covered 1/2 near end of day. I moved stops considerably for the other half, but sure don’t feel I want to miss out on what I think should be at least one more leg down in that wedge. I totally agree and see the possible ZZ however. Too late now, my mind was made up 15 minutes before end of day. Have a great weekend every body!
By the way Idan, I got short AMZN as well, but at the 116.40 level. I am in 100’s though so the risk isn’t too bad.
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:26 pm
Never mind Woo. I just got to looking at the 1 minute and see where the exit was. I was too quick to judge, 5 more minutes would have been the tell. This looks like May all over again. Distribution is definitely pointing towards that new high now. Wish I had held my 112 calls now that I promised myself not to until at least 111. Kept ‘em green, which is what counts. There is always wave 2 to buy them back on
. Would love to hear your opinion on the Q’s. I think they topped this week. BIDU AMZN and MSFT couldn’t get it higher today.
October 24th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
ox – i really should take a look at the Q’s again. i used to, but stopped. thanks for the reminder! i’ll try put together a QQQQ chart and see what it says. hopefully i can do it by sunday for a general idea.
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:38 pm
i’m fine with a move down. i can see 1070 and 1059-1061 as possible positions. i decided to delve in a very very small put position, just for fun. really a gamble more than anything else, but not something i recommend putting someone else’s money into.
F AMZN taken my 14k today
still holding
October 23rd, 2009 at 4:31 pm
They beat by a whopping 12 cents, and it was only 45 cents a share. AMZN and the MM’s went overboard on that today. Stock is owned by morons that like to cook the books anyway, correction is coming.
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:23 pm
when these MF Analysts said that AMZN will make this much at that time AMZN was trading around 70s so if they beat by 12 cents then how could that 12 cent make this worth $50?
Balance on my remaining shares short + profit taken off the table this morning: $30,050 (up roughly $26,000 from yesterday’s gyration, not bad).
Current short positions still held: JPM, BAC, HD, and COF
Current options still held: JPM, BAC, HD, COF, DXD, QID, and SKF calls
In addition, I scalped 2000 shares of AXP for an intraday play, shorting at $36.25 (pre-market) and covering at $35.25, so I can afford to let my QID calls sit until November expiration now.
I actually made money based on COF’s stupid gap up this morning (at 9:38 ish the stochastic was way out of the park at 100), and bought the calls back at lower price later in the day.
This gyration is really sending me to the edge. Based on the VIX action today I really think this is a shakeout of last bears. I got faked out in the morning, too, although I am not upset with it since I was taking too much of a risk (SPX 1120 would have done significant damage to my portfolio, $50,000 minimum). Now I am hedged towards a Monday shakeout, and positioned for a gap down Monday, too.
I really should have looked at the March 2 – 6 gyrations before psychologically wearing out. It was easier for me to do my analysis when I didn’t have my massive short positions put on the table (before October 19). Like I said this morning, having a massive one way position kills you mentally. I have reduced my short exposure by 50%, so I should be able to focus on my analysis much better now.
October 23rd, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Thanks, Fritz. Look forward to your analysis this weekend/Monday. Have a relaxing weekend. It’s only money.
October 23rd, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Fritz – can you share your tgts for these … also are you playing Nov options ?
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Targets:
JPM – $40.50, $35, $31, $27.5, $15, $9 (not sure when it will happen, I will have to see the slope of the decline)
BAC – $1 (not sure when yet)
HD – $10
COF – I don’t know, I just want to keep scalping until I get out unscathed at $37.70
DXD, QID, and SKF calls – depends on what happens this weekend.
All options are November options.
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:01 pm
fritz, added to uco position at end of day–now 40/60, uco/sco. understand your concern on having mass positions, looking for singles vs. home runs, as market is too difficult for ANYONE to prognosticate. Good luck.
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Blackhawk – saw your comment on USO … yes am getting worried on this, but still holding …
What made you add to UCO ?
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:25 pm
Anjali, short term charts show uco on 200sma. Expect a bounce on Mon. (41.25 to 41.50 range), but have stops on partial shares, if falls hard. Trying to play this trade out until I get further understanding.
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:33 pm
uso
October 23rd, 2009 at 10:41 pm
Yes – I saw that too …. that is why I held, if we had broken the 200 MA on the 10 min (which is what I follow), I would have sold and taken my loss.
Anyway, I see us forming a descending triangle / possible bull flag on the 60 min … with 40.90 at support … sometimes the charts like to consolidate till this reach a MA – and then use that combined with the MA to bounce off ….
If we break 40.90, I would think of exiting the position … if the triangle plays out, its tgt is 42.25 … however there is resistance at 41.60, 41.90 on the way …
Best of luck to us …:)
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Haha, I whole heartedly agree. Just when you think you figured out how Wall Street and governments work, they turn it around and stick it to you. I still think my timing method works, but I have to be mentally strong and have all hedges in place.
Good posts today ST crew.
Pop pop fizz
Good wk-end to all.
…Only my 02 cents…
I bet that we will gap up next Monday…bears were not able to push SPY beyond SMA(100) on hourly charts…However the current trend is still bearish and it will drop further very shortly…all mid term indicators (Zweig and McClellan) signaled to sell..
Holding only EL puts for this weekend…still waiting for a signal from Google..did not buy it because I expect a little pop up on Monday..
Have a nice weekend guys
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:13 pm
I am leaning towards a gap up shakeout Monday, too. That’s why I bought some long hedges towards EOD.
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:17 pm
Lets watch the dollar for the next move.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RooZBjU53ZA&feature=related
I like the way Becky dress today!
It seems that my turn date held true, again..
Guys the expected sell off is 6%. I would start unloading shorts in the 1050-1070 area and be re-loading them in the 1090-1110 level until November 3rd.
Here is the turn date chart: http://tinyurl.com/yggunfj
I posted this chart in early October letting everyone know oct16/19 will be the top..
October 23rd, 2009 at 10:43 pm
Hey Zee – was thinking of you
Missed getting in this time too … can you pls post an updated chart along with possible timeframes to go long … I know one would be Nov 2nd – is that right …
October 23rd, 2009 at 10:47 pm
Also, the other question is does the low have to happen on Nov 3 … in that case if we reach 1050-1070 early, then does that mean upside start os we make a slightly lower low ?