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6:27pm
Stopped of AMZN afterhours cuz of earnings , at $95 (-1.4%). But now it’s on the very overbought list.. and i’m willing to take a short again haha. Fib targets line up towards a possible top at 107.50-108.50 on AMZN… willing to short and put a stop at -109. A stronger peak lies at 112$ where.. but the strongest peak will probably be at $120. I think shorting the 110 november calls on AMZN on any continuation of this rally is the way to go. Strong support lies at 104-104.20 on AMZN.
4:00pm
Today was a strong day for the bulls after the 1074-1075 support was hit (which was our strong gap fill support), the XLF managed to break back above it’s neckline… however it’s not the case for all the overbought stocks. BIDU never broke it’s trendline, so that was not a short, but AMZN has.. and at the end of the day it retested the H&S neckline formation and failed… that’s a bad sign for that stock. GLD has a very nice potential H&S on the 10 minute now as well, JPM rallied 2%, but it just touched the first level of resistance right at the end of the day, so we’ll see maybe it’s worth a short tomorrow. USO showed weakness earlier in the day, but reversed… i think it’s tough to short such a stock, but it is overbought very very short term, i rather wait to short it though. GOOG, i still like my short calls nov 580 position. Hedge fund made a nice 3% shorting CERN over the last few days.. i still think it’s an overbought stock though and can be shorted with stops or hedges.
3:32pm
Stopped out of XLF. (-1.34%) but SPY hit 109.65 resistance.. that’s another potential reversal place. But.. you should have more of a bullish inclination.. unless we break below 109 again.
2:27pm
If we can hold above 109 for a while we could see a cancellation of the reversal day we had yesterday, a break of the 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s fall would also do that at 109.25$…very important level. Otherwise, you can put in a short position here with a stop RIGHT above.
12:18pm
oo forgot to say, CERN Is on the overbought list too… the hedge fund took that position at 85$… it’s putting a stop at like 82.2, but I think it’s still playable short if you’re entering now, with a slightly higher stop.
2:00am
I have been incredibly busy last night and will be tomorrow, therefore I just want to reiterate what i said. Today we will see the jobs report and that will be a deciding factor… even though I am going to be talking about yesterday’s action, keep in mind that a break of 109 to the upside on the SPY could cancel yesterday’s reversal significance.
Yesterday was incredible day, we had a rally that was completely reversed in the last hour forming a reversal day on strong volume. H&S formations on many stocks broke down, and that was my signal to get short. I am short AMZN, XLF and i have a short covered calls GOOG nov 580s @ 4.80, which i put on at $558 mid day. In addition, I believe that AAPL is becoming overbought (but i don’t want to short it due to it’s fundamentals). XLF broke down it’s H&S but it also potentially breaking it’s wedge formation! Could this be a potential omen?
XLF Daily:
Wynn has now reached the second target of 62.20, and might get a bounce for the gap fill. But with a continuation of down side into tomorrow, I would watch for a potential 59-60$ support to get hit first. If we do rally on the SPY, any push above 109 would get me thinking bullish again. Support on the SPX lies at two major places 1074-1075, and 1070-1071.. a break of those would make me think that we’re going towards the wedge support at 1051 (also the 61.8% retrace from 1020 to 1102). Stock that are technically overbought: USO (now overbought) but hey, do you really want to stand infornt of this one? maybe short it if it can push under $40.25, GLD (still overbought.. but after consolidation, it has more room to go up, keep a stop above todays’ high). JPM is still technically overbought, even though the action we got today, is exactly what we expected, i think it can fall to 41$ though IF we get another down day due to megaphone formation on the 60 minute. BIDU a break below 405, and consider this one done with it’s rally for a few days. SBUX looks like it has no more power to really push higher… it can either give us one last push higher to reverse lower.. or start reversing lower.. i like it short too.
Here’s a 240 minute SPX to help you see that 1051 is very very strong support:
Here is JPM megaphone… and why 40.50-41$ is technically a possible target (JPM 240):
BIDU support on the 60 minute can break tomorrow under 405.. that’s when you should short with trailing stop:
Bearish bear – how are you playing the Vix? calls? VXX? I’m investigating, please share as muchas you are comfortable with.
I am playing mainly with naked Options….just normal ones…no crazy Options strategy…my losses limit is 10-15%…usually ones those that will expire in about 45-60 days..
My strategy is to try to find stocks with maximum divergence from SMA100. In any direction, negative or positive, usually stock reverses after reaching this apex
- First step is to find stocks that reached 52-Week High/Low
- I use 02 indicators: PPO (8-21-5) and PPO (5-21-89).
It is difficult find the behavior of the curve PPO (5-21-89) because sometimes it is too flat. So use inside it , I use the slow stochastic to pinpoint its maximums and minimums.
Usually when both indicators are showing in the daily basis the same indication it means that the trend is changing.
By the way, beside the rally that we had today, both indicators are still showing a reversal.
I am shorting mainly because SPY signaled to short…quite obvious…at least until the next cycle
I use http://www.freestockcharts.com because I think that they better charts and a free real time service
Sorry..the correct is:
- I use 02 indicators: PPO (8-21-5) and PPO (21-89).
you used free stullf that why you are “Burned bear” lol
…yes…..how you guessed???…lol….
Funny, everyone was a mega bear after yesterday’s big turn… even bullish bear. And yes, 80% of companies are beating estimates, but those estimates are far below what the market price is… and many of those are still down substantially in income. Also, the wrong companies are blowing away earnings. What does Amazon produce? How many more people will they need to hire as a result of increased businesses because people can’t shop at their local mall or main street stores because those are closed or gone? I just bought a computer off Amazon. Why? Because Circuit City no longer exists and Best Buy’s inventory was half what it used to be.
Bottom line is the wrong companies are leading this market up. I would feel much better about the prospects of our country and the recovery if GE blew away earnings rather than Google. As for job hiring, Silicon Valley has never been reflective of the rest of the country. That is an economy and culture all in its own.
Pretty obvious the short squeeze was played today. Housing has turned back for the worse, prices even dropping, fewer starts, and the builder sentiment also down as we approach the slow season for building… and home builders are a leading sector today? Wow! Maybe there’s a lot of faith in that home buyer tax credit getting extended. I for one am growing tired and somewhat frightened of having everything tied to our government chipping in. This country was founded to avoid that for a reason. Remember, anything given can be taken away.
Perhaps tomorrow the market snake will continue to eat its own tail to grow fat., but only if enough shorts are still leaking out the back end.
Disagree…I am playing with the market…we have now a short top…so it is time to swing traders to get in….
I am burned bear because….well…all bears became burned with this fake rally…I say fake because….do you really thing our economy is improving? One day…maybe next year…who knows…the reality will come again…in a very painful way
LewDog;
If you are waiting for brick and mortar stores to pop up and hire as a reflection of improving economy then you wont see them. It will never happen this is electronic/internet based consumer economy and the likes of Amazon, EBAY, Google will be the new SEARS, Kmart etc.
Silicon Valley, RT128 in MA, RTP are the new norm and the new economy and people who are without skills will continue to be jobless. An average Joe cannot be a high school dropout and expect a well paying job with all the benefits and a cushy medical plan and frankly too many americans expect that.
The unemployment rate for the undereducated is at the highest level and it will not improve.
Lewdog you can’t fight the dollar and until that has a substatantial bounce the market will power higher,1150,1200,1250,why will the gov. intervene,they have been talking shit for months now but it keeps declining,give up and watch the dollar,the fed will take ti down to $72 minimum,maybe at that point they get serious.
AGREE WITH ALL OF YOU.
Everyone be long on NOVEMBER 3RD.
why the 3rd,unemployment going to be that bad
do not be bull or bear. Empty your mind, be formless. Shapeless, like water. If you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup. You put water into a bottle and it becomes the bottle. You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now, water can flow or it can crash. Be water my friend…
I agree. The day of reckoning will be severe. We will look.back on TARP and tax credits and say, “What were we thinking?”
still raking in the cash buying the dips however I think November will go to the bears
Thats what they said about September & October
our govt can stay bulls for years or can turn bears tomorrow… that’s the game none of us will ever known…
yup that is why bears& bulls will lose everything
Woo – was looking at WFC … we bounced off support today with a bullish engulfing candle … guess where my resistance is …. 31.65
… you may just get there 
haha yeah, anjali – i don’t know if you saw my chart i posted. i have my resistance a bit below $32 currently do based on a long term trend line. i’ll be selling my calls there, and possibly taking a put position for a bounce back down south.
i picked up more today, and am hoping to get out tomorrow if possible.