Follow me on twitter: korenidan87
1:58pm
2 pm reversal time is here.. and we are now RIGHT at the ascending wedge resistance.. interesting.
10:29am
I have to go for a few hours… the fact that we have not broken the blue support line yet would make me nervous being short.. The only thing i’m short right now is a 3% position of SBUX with a stop right over 21$… until the blue line breaks.
10:00am
3 people asked me what I would do with BAC and Citigroup. I say very simply, they will under perform their competitors because they missed earnings, it’s that simple. In this type of environment if you’re one of the few that missed earnings people move money away from your company and into profitable companies. I say short BAC, C for another 5-6% and go long XLF as a hedge.
9:58am
Nice pull back in the markets, as we predicted at the open. Now it’s 10 am reversal time, this will be extremely important, we’ll see if we can break down the blue support line i have in my chart of the SPX. By the way, those still holding short WYNN… make sure you’ve got a trailing stop on that, I think it can move to the 60-62 range today, but make sure there’s a stop at a profitable place.
9:56am
As far as google goes, since i’ve been getting A LOT of questions on this one. I think this stock might get one last push up before it starts falling, i don’t believe shorting it flat out right now is the best trade. However, i have some colleagues who sold uncovered calls at the November 580s for a good chunk of money. This is a very risky trade as the downside is unlimited if GOOG breaks 580 by November expiration.
9:53am
Yup, there you go USO under performing the market… perfect. If you’re still in this.. you should be putting a profitable stop here at some point, don’t play around with this for too long.
9:40am
Woah.. got stopped out of the USO really fast here with the smallest profit of (0.01%). Those holding on to it, can still hold it with a stop, if the market does pull back USO will be the first to pull with it because it’s overbought in the very very very short term.
9:35am
I’m taking the rest of my BIDU off the table here.. very nice trade! (3.9% total). AMZN stopped out with 1% profit too.
9:30am
The market is up slightly this morning especially on that CIT news of Bill Ichan willing to lend them money. However, I’m not sure this is enough to keep this market up. We might be seeing this market turn lower very fast. USO is down despite the market is up, as we expected! So let’s put a winning position stop on that as soon as possible.
12:15am
Futures are slightly lower… they were much lower before hand. It technically would not surprise me if we gap down tomorrow after fridays after-hours sell off. That doesn’t mean it’ll happen, but if it does, i wouldn’t be surprised at all.
Here’s a 60 minute of SPX… a break of that blue line should be shorted:
WAG is starting to crack (ADBE as well). If it fells under $40, looks like that the bear party will be nice for it
Here’s my updated 6 month chart. BOOYAH:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/wooew6-month-1124-1?context=user
Stocks I’m currently short:
AXP @ $35.65
COF @ $37.70
JPM @ $46.20 (yes, I bet against it for the first time in three months)
CAT @ $57.50
MMM @ $76.80
HD @ $27.60
BAC @ $17.50
AA held over from my AA earnings play
All shares short are protected by calls (I shorted many shares, so it’ll be a dumb idea to risk a $200k margin call)
Options I currently have:
DXD NOV 34 CALL
QID NOV 23 CALL
SKF NOV 25 CALL
TNA JAN 22 PUT
JPM DEC 35 PUT
Is any of you trading schpunk ?
Great site, no women to cloud the ‘uptrends’.
next area of significance whether we hit resistance there, or go above it to backtest is the 1102 level.
Home builders’ confidence slips to 18 in October
By Rex Nutting WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Faced with the imminent expiration of a government subsidy for new buyers, U.S. home builders’ mood turned more pessimistic again in October, a trade group reported Monday. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index fell to 18 in October from 19 in September. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the index to rise to 20. All three components of the index fell for the first time in nearly a year. At 18, the home builders’ index shows that only about one in six builders has a positive view of the housing market. The expiration of the refundable tax credit “could derail the fragile recovery,” said Joe Robson, a builder from Tulsa, Okla., who is chairman of the contractors’ trade group.
Seems to have no impact on the market today.
big frickin’ deal. slips 1 point. Still twice as high as April.
It is winter time! Check historical patterns. I think this is positive news.
1096 area has a good amount of support. two fibs there..
also a trend line in this area,
i doubt we head south of here. too much support within 1096-1097.
bears need a really really strong push south. i would not feel comfortable holding any large short positions at the moment. it’s okay to take a taste though, if the stocks are overbought or hitting EW resistance.
aside from the t/a side of things, the only hope for usa to avoid mass destruction
at the hand of depression is via stagflation or hyperinflation.
for now stock appear to be harbor from hyperbolic inflations.
1100 .. touched ..
i agree with you woo…..especially with aapl out aftermkt…..which i think they’ll pleasantly surprise the mkt. i see 1120 on my time cycle by wednesday close. be long or be wrong~
i would LOVE to see 1120s by Wednesday. Currently my wedge cross is at 1124 by November, but it doesn’t mean we haven’t to keep going within the wedge until that area hits. we could easily break out to the north, and hit 1120s.
i’m thinking that tech might bring the market up, but we’ll start seeing a lot of disappointing earnings coming within the next few weeks to start bringing to market down. whether aapl does well or not, long term it’s not going to affect the market as much as other sectors.
there’s 1100! calls are doing well. was considering loading up more at the 1096-1097 area because of strong support, but i’ll be patient…
still waiting for 1102 minimum, if not 1110. if we want your time cycle to be fulfilled we’re going to want to see 1110 before EOD, so that tomorrow can be consolidation, and wednesday can be break out.
you will get your wish.
Thanks Woo – cannot see social charts at work … so appreciate what you are seeing …. playing this patiently along with you … thanks for your updates and keep them coming
yeah bot some calls earlier into intraday consolidation…doing nicely so far. def hope to see the 1110 print into eod.
no way that 1110 prints today
we would need an attack on Iran for that. Maybe tomorrow.
The way I see it happening is if oil starts moving up … it has been consolidating all the … the ascending triangle has to break this afternoon …. if it breaks up, then with S&P so heavily weighted in energy … this # may be possible … today / tomm am
Forr break of the triangle, we need to break and close above 40.60 … 2 candle confirmation
I’ve been sitting on 8,000 shares of MRO since 33.09. Almost took some profit the other day but held off. Got a sell order in at 35.80.
Woo: Looking at the S&P chart, what about that huge rising wedge formed by the trend lines of Feb’s last bounce on the top and the March lows across the bottom: when does it look like the matter will come to a point and break one way or another? are we there now to the upside? When, based on that one chard, could one expect the bottom to fall out?
Thanks
you know it’s really hard to say, and i’ve been thinking this exact thing myself. there have been points in the past where we’ve broken south of long term wedges, and then the market hit a retrace, and then went back north to hit where the wedges crossed (disgusting i know). i’m a little worried that this may be the case again, and am watching my dark blue trend line carefully to see if we have any breaks under it.
if we break south of that line, i’m only playing ONE big drop south, and then getting out. due to the overall bull market currently, and because there is still upside risk.
i’m currently thinking of setting stops at 1097, so that i don’t risk any more drops, and if it rises to 1100 break to 1102 i’ll set stops below 1100 to give a small percentage for retraces and consolidation above that level.
i am playing this market day to day very carefully, looking for key entry points, and not risking the whipsaw action that can happen near tops and bottoms of long term bull/bear markets.
good job being concerned of falling out of the wedge.
I have a lot of resistance (3 lines) converrging at 110.20 …
Actually EOD those lines converge @ 110.35-110.4
Mr. Topstep and the futures traders do not seem to think the 50% Fib is the goal, but rather the gap fill.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VU6g2pj18s
i thought you said mr. topstep was saying that the market is going to start falling into this week? no? i don’t remember exactly.
Ya, he did think so on Friday. And it was looking that way Sunday night/this morning, but with Fed coming out saying the reverse repo thing was nothing but a test, risky assets got a bid again. No one is right all the time man. AAPL is 15% of NDX, btw… just food for thought.
1102.47 is the number i’m looking for short term on the 60 minute chart. we’ll see if it even hits…
It is very interesting time to see the outcome of market action vis-a-vis TA during next several days. I am noticing that on one hand Fritz’s is now shorting (with caution and hedges of course) and Woo’s unemotional analysis suggesting run up for a while!!!
Extended wave [5 of A of P-2) or C of ABC of P-2] is surely keeping all the camps on their edges. Will be interesting to see how it fans out.
Any ideas on reason for extended current wave? Impact of stimulus? New cheap money pouring in?
weak dollar being offered as an excuse. . . till u consid that europe is doing way
better on the back of a super strong euro which ensures their export driven econos
will tank ?
Yeah, I could be off on my timing by a day or two, so better be safe than sorry ha ha.
My $40k margin call on February 9 2009 is still fresh in my mind, although I didn’t given them away, it sure still scared the heck out of me.
This is a problem with charts and TA. On any given evening one can surf the net and find both bullish and bearish interpretations of the same data. Who is right and why?
For many months after the turn in early March, people here posted chart after chart indicating that we were on the brink of another big leg down. All of this analysis turned out to be very wrong. I don’t think that TA in general was to blame; I think that bias was the issue. It was bears seeing what they wanted to see in the data.
totally agree morris. it takes a lot to separate emotions from trading. and it takes a big man/woman to admit they are wrong. the quicker you learn to get up from mistakes, the better trader you will become.
i hate to say this, but i rarely look at other people’s charts, until after i’ve finished my own assessment. i don’t like being biased by other opinions, and like having my own firm opinion before taking others into consideration. i will never quote someone else’s chart without having any proof from my own charts first. other people’s charts should always be secondary proof, unless you’re starting out and are learning the ways (which actually can take a ridiculous amount of time haha)
I will say that I certainly give some consideration to the TA and charts presented by people who seem to be unbiased and that definitely includes you Woo. It really takes a lot of self discipline to be unbiased in such matters. Thanks for all that you do here!
Agree Morris. I always and still believe that TA follows stocks not the other way around.
Also I am fascinated by the bias either BULL or BEAR. I always laugh when IDAN says 2Pm reversal time
BTW I am waiting who would confess and come forward that they were wrong when they said “you cannot be LONG with a close like this” on Friday.
WOO, FRITZ,MORRIS are a few who confess when they are wrong..the rest just disappear.
I believe woo was long
Don’t be a tool, it went down in the am, was a good call.
does not gov. manipulation play a role, and no i am not just thinking of an excuse but only 400 billion came from money market accounts and we had a 2.5 tillion move in our markets
It’s as simple as this, Paul.
When trading, you have to realize big money moves the markets. The retail guy cannot move the markets.
At 666, you had big money like Goldman Sachs saying ok, I’ll buy 50 billion dollars of equities… but I’ll do it over 6 months… NOT ONLY THAT.. but this BIG money had 0 SHORTS ON ..
In terms of economics, the demand for stocks was ultra high. What about the supply. The supply is people who are selling. The only people who were selling were shorts, let’s say $1 billion.
So let’s look at it.
50 $ BILLION demand (buying pressure) vs. 1 $ BILLION SUPPLY (retail shorts-selling pressure).
What do you think is going to happen to equities with an unbalanced equation like this? You get a huge-run-up, really quickly.
You think a retail guy, who buys FAZ or SHORTS 100 shares of JPM is seriously gonna create selling pressure????????????
LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
BIG MONEY MOVES MARKETS.
Retail = NOT BIG MONEY
When you read blogs, be aware, that these are RETAIL INVESTORS who cannot move MARKETS.. therefore they are LIKELY WRONG.
KISS!
Good luck.
Is it GOV.MANIPULATION? No. It’s DEMAND/SUPPLY.
Stopped out SCO @13.08 (bought @13.28 last Friday). GL.
Yep, oil looked weak all day but it has decided to join the party now (much to my dismay).
Would you join the UCO party right here?
no way!
Come on Morris you can do it
Jon – see below … we are at r – would take some profit – get in again if we break 40.95 or so … to ride upto 42 … IMHO …
USO @ resistance 40.80 … if it can confim break, then join the UCO party to 42…. otherwise not … too late for UCO right now … this may consolidate to 40 or even 39 on USO …
Haha! I can’t convince myself to join the UCO party either. Crude oil price has risen for 8 consecutive days, it is time to short…. Will buy back @$13 or better. Good luck to all of us………..
Got in SCO today, stopped out even. its gonna be a great trade soon.
no either I will buy back sco today or tomorrow.
Me too bot earlier today, will try again tomorrow.
BTW amzn has been lagging …. shorted 500 shartes at $95.2
To me AMZN is consolidating. I was thinking about shorting but decided against it due to the retail season
currently there’s an intraday wedge, and if it dips any more south from 1099, i’m going to sell.
setting a stop at high 1098. will take between 12-14% if this stop hits.
Woo – i sold my calls at 15% …. just now … 1100 looking strong …
well played! =)
looks like there’s a chance we could just head higher, but, there’s a few trend lines to get back across and that 1100 level. locking in profit is always good, better entry positions will come later.
Well this was thanks to you – special Thank you hug
where would you look for a re-enty ?
nice tankage on RINO nlod
2000 more SCO @ 12.95 (I now have 4000 shares @ 13.15 average)
Hey Morris, when du you expect a reversal in oil???
Well, I am in SCO pretty deep now so I am thinking it will be soon (although I’m not convinced that it will be anything other than a short term correction at this point). We will see.
May I ask what you have as a target and what timeframe???
not sure yet; i want to see how we close today.
watch self !!! Oil to $100 and above by EOM.
all the ipods on earth can’t replace a single jar of vasoline.
Everyone ready for the next push up?
I bet you a dollar that we close under 1100.
deal and I will give you 3 to 1 odds.
done!
I am with you 3m here. If appl does well we will go higher.
APPL will not report well; however, it should rookie rise at the end of the day and then sell off big time AH. I would not hold APPL past EOD. Just my analysis.
I donot have any AAPL..trying to make a habbit of not holding anything into earnings.
it’s not below a longer term trend line, but it’s below the wedge, and i don’t want to risk a 5-10 point drop on a retrace.
i sold my position and locked in about 12%
might go up higher, but i’m fine with it.
around.. 1098.7 or so. if we fall below that, then it’s the SECOND trend line that is broken intraday.
i would consider getting out of long positions if that happens.
this is a short term view by the way (not saying the bears are trickling in)
instead of betting oil long or short look at the t/a for IOC which just took out
all time highs. In china’s backyard with a huge discovery confirmed by majors
now scampering to buy leases around it.
my gut say $95. and double that if it finds oil under that sea of natgas at record
pressure levels. huge short position, this will run.
IOC -interoil
or
GTE grande tierra energy
Sold mine at 15% too … thanks Woo
So where would you add next … what r u seeing now ?
i’ll wait for a hopeful drop to the major trend line which is at 1086-1087 or a rise to the light blue channel top at 1110 area.
i don’t like being here in the middle haha.
we could see 1096 and then rise, but i don’t know if i’ll risk a position there.
Got .it so if we reach 1110 – you would buy spy 110/111 puts – right ?
i would seriously consider it with very tight stops. the ascending wedge is getting small, and we could break our or breakdown. but i think you get the picture.
Added IBM short @ $123.00 and INTC short @ $20.40, both protected by calls
———– BACK IN FOR A PEEK ——— srs pretty flat. Governement to extend benefits to homeowners? another money throw policy at an already inflated printing press? wow. im so glad to be Canadian. your Government is royally screwing you over. hell bent at creating inflation. let’s see how well things go in a recession with inflated oil prices.
im holding short what i have. my account is unchanged today.
amen. this government is sending us to hell in a handbasket. banks and other large companies aren’t helping either. it’s going to suck for the next generation growing up.
this is a cycle high on the 19th as pisavinto said in his astro cycles, but zee said this is a mid or weak cycle not as strong as the nov. cycle will be.
Close UCO Nov 13 call – bought 1.20 …. closed some on Friday @ 1.65 … some right now @ 1.80 …. we are at resistance on USO @ 40.80 …
Nice trade!
Thanks
Morris & you have played this a lot better than me … looking to buy UCO 14 puts …. lets see how the action is EOD an where we close …
Bought back SCO @13.04. Best of luck to you!
I did not buy anything today … need to see confimation – this is a LT trendline from july – would be surprised if we leapfrogged over it … that said if we get to 41 – I will be in on UCO for the ride to 42 – 42.50
Yes, AAPL beat; the market will go higher tomorrow. I may get in the UCO trade as a hedge if UCO gets to $41; and then ride it up to $41.8 to $42.00 level.
We are getting close to Woo’s target, don’t want to bet against his call, he has been right so far.
Let’s see how we open tomorrow………
well done! i need to study oil more. hehe more money.
just bot some more calls…good luck into eod.
OKAY FELLOW STOCKTOCKers, this is my final post of the day, and perhaps my final post of the week (I’m on a business trip). Like I said before, when I tap into my margin, I will let you know. Well, I have tapped into my margin (short). Although all short shares are protected by calls, I do have straight up one-way options so I could stand to lose $50k (that includes the premiums I paid for the calls).
Best of luck to all of you, be safe!
Good luck Fritz, have a safe trip.
I’m with you on the INTC short…
Good luck
Fritz,
Thanks for sharing. I hope the trip goes well. I have really enjoyed your insights the last several months. Now, should your travels take you to an evening outing, I recommend a good Belgian Double or Tripel, say Chimay or Maredsous, to unwind. Happy travels.
break down of the intraday wedge again. this is a rough area to be holding calls into tomorrow. but the bulls aren’t out of it. i’ve got no positions into tomorrow and will wait for the market to make its next short term move.
I will wait patiently with you …. learning patience from you … Master Woo
– will wait for your next update …
Anjali, Idan et al,
I’ve been out of commission for the past four days. Did anyone follow me on my ICE trade? Now that it’s made a strong move and found resistance twice today at $107, what would your advice be? Typically I’m a swing trader, so keep that in mind. Thanks for the assistance!
Cotton … yes I saw it on Friday and gave you a shout out too … I would have closed at 107 as we reached the tgt …. I cannot day trade either …
Right now … my line in sand would be 102.50-103 … if you want to continue to hold … at that point would definitely get out
This may see consolidation before its next move ….
Thanks Anj. Always appreciate your insight!
You are welcome !! Glad to help …
Perhaps flag on 5-min S&P ?
“Half-Past Human” Dollar predictions plus other tidbits (1st of 6 parts). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KL-7icdNp0M
i watched it and it was interesting, but i believe we will have the opposite problem with the dollar it being too strong after a crash.
“What if”. A Dollar crash could drag the market down with it.
My firend ERX again made 4% gain today. As I expected last week it keeps going up and up. I used ERX as a gage for myself to see where this market is going and it always helped me to find the right direction. I would not call a major correction for this market until I see 6~8% drop on ERX in a single day and then a confermation of that drop in a few days thereafter, in that case I would say this market has put its top and time is to go short 100%.
Selling aapl for a scalp. Need to raise cash to pay Morris invoice.
Dear 3min,
Please give my 3 dollars to the first homeless person you encounter.
Will do
3m you may need to raise more cash to cover appl
…just joking dude. You win some or loose sum.
tom. ppi data comes out could tell us a little about deflation or not.
Zions -1.41 v. -1.24 consensus.
thanks. was looking for that report.
This outfit has much invested in LV real estate.
The RUT failed again at getting a new high. I have now 3K shares of TZA at 10.82 average and have flipped 1K shares twice for about .50 cents.
HOG– this pig has went up 11 days in a row! And its earnings were worst ever. Must be a short squeeze. I have scalped it twice and have averaged my short to 27.41
APLL beat. 9.9B vs 9.2B and 1.82 vs 1.42 looks like its headed to 200 ah.
AAPL is shooting up like a rocket
APPL BIG BIG BIG BEAT!!!! BOOYAH
I tried to buy appl call verts three times today, order just sat there unfilled.
Why do I am being singled out by the market as the one who cannot make money.
hard luck..I almost bought some calls but did not want to break my own rule of not gambling before earnings…Rules are hard to follow
But anyway…. feelings are over-rated. If we get a gap up of what the futures are giving right now on spx, that will put us at 104 or so, which would seem like a wonderful place to go short– gapping up above the SPY gap to then go down and fill.
Made 2k on apple in the last hour of the day….then sold it at EOD. 1,000 shares. The joke is on me. 12k missed opportunity…crazy.
Nice call 3min
Next time post your trades so others can follow you
made 6K on RIMM just sold after hours ..:)
Of note, FASB has changed its accounting rules on Sept. 23, allowing Apple to realize the revenue from its iPhones and AppleTV devices at purchase rather than slowly over two years. This change has been factored into analyst estimates in anticipation of an accounting change at AAPL
Interesting, SPY not going parabolic AH after the intial spike. QQQQ even off the initial spike. Tired mkt?
“Interesting, SPY not going parabolic AH after the intial spike.
QQQQ even off the initial spike. Tired mkt?”
I picked up some qid in afterhrs @ $21.43
could not resist, after aapl reported in afterhrs.
Whats happend to all that excitement about the top is in,
that overwhelmed this board for the past many months ?!
Maybe we need more pretty graphs with trendlines posted.
Really how is the stock mrkt going to go higher,
if there is no more shorts to sqeeze ?!
Still far too many bears on this blog for the market to go down.
Beware of stop losses. Seeing that this was going to be an up day, I bought some FAS in pre-trading at 87 and set a stop loss at 85. THE COMPUTERS OF THE BIG TRADERS LOOK FOR STOP LOSSES, drive the price down to pick up all those shares at cheap prices and then let the price rise. Instead of making $1.13 per share, I lost $2.00 per share. I wonder if it is legal for brokerages to allow access to triggers and stops. I bought FAS a month ago and the same thing happened. Do others have the same experience with TD Ameritrade or is this just a bad coincidence?
This has happened to me, and it sucks!!
FAS tracks the $RIFIN X3.. I don’t think that can really be manipulated..
http://tinyurl.com/ylddwlj
When you compare it to another 3x bull ETF, they were both acting the same way..
nonbody looks at each stop loss. They know most people have stop loss and then they do these kind of action. To prevent this you have to take somemore risk and have a liittle wider stop loss.
9.05 BID 9.06 ASK
The stock suddenly drops to 8.99 shaking everyone out, and quickly goes back up to 9.10.
This is ‘shaking’.
Shake the tree baby…
People who base their stops on TA get shaken out easily. If you place a stop slightly below a “known” support, you are waiting to be taken out. That is one of the reasons I donot trust TA
Anybody who uses support and does not account for the ‘support area’ should not be using TA.
For example, looking at the S&P.. There is support at 875, however the if the real support area is from 865-885.
Dude, this sucks, but I really don’t think the market is looking at your stop loss… you are just a tiny fish in a big ocean.
I hate to say I told you so but I told you so.
DO NOT SHORT THIS MARKET.
We are still going higher…don’t do the wrong thing and lose your money.
S+P is going to hit 1200-1400.
I said this a few moths ago.
Forget all the people here who try and be cute and time a 3% drop.
Go long and go enjoy your day.
THANKS ALL YOU SHORTS!!!$$$
The shorts are not propelling this market higher. It’s big money institutions.
Flatron, if we get to 1120 tomorrow, I’m going full-fledged short. You bet.
Market is about to make a 5% sell-off in the next 2 weeks.
Theoretical Bottom = November 3rd now.
And I agree with you long is the way to go, but GOING LONG AT 1100 ???
I’m looking to go long on a pullback to the 1040-1055 area..
I agree with Zee. I think anybody feeling like we’re going up through many more resistance levels without a correction must be high on something. Also rubbing it in the noses of guys who are short and in financial pain is tasteless at best Flatron.
Zee, I do feel 5% barely constitutes a correction however, and believe 10% is more likely and much needed. Did you mean you believe it will be that small, or did you mean at least a 5% correction? Personally I’m about 50% invested short now, 25% long, and 25% cash, but those numbers were reversed up until October 8th, when I cashed out with a nice but not huge 40% profit for the year, after being mostly long throughout the summer. So being down 6-7% on my shorts now still leaves me up 30%+ this year. I’m staying short until 10% down and then will be stopped out, however I do not think that will happen. Anyway, just my 2 cents.