2:17pm
JPM now down for the day…
1:51pm
The market did not ocnfirm a second 10 minute close below 1067… saved by the last massive up candle.
1:39pm
XLF is still looking very bearish on the medium term… it already hit the support of the wedge a few days back, and barely saved itself… Another hit and it’s over:
1:24pm
Please rememeber that stocks i put on my overbought list are stocks that I believe will underperform the market and will likely fall on the 2 weeks frame. In order to truly be hedged you should hedge these stocks against the index. I.e. go short AMZN go long Qs, go short JPM go long XLF or SPY.
1:02pm
If the bears manage to break back below my resistance blue wedge line (small wedge, not the long one). A break below 1067 would be short term bearish..
12:47pm
Google now on the overbought list (could still some upside towards the 530-540 area though.
12:46pm
Hedge fund went short on some AMZN at 96++ with target around the 90 area. I still think this stock can move way lower than 90, but we would need to see the market fall with that happening.
12:44pm
The bulls really have a chance to push this market to the 1091.50 target line… this will be one strong resistance to break though.
2:27am
Futures are much higher after good earnings from both US and the rest of the world. Also Australia’s job reports are looking much better, as their unemployment fell. That does not mean that the US is out of the woods though. We have our own jobless claims at 8:30am, and that should determine whether we blast higher to the 1090 mark or fall down. The market looked bullish at the end of the day. With the triangle breaking to the upside, we can see a continuation of the rally. The bears can bring this market down by 3% and essentially they would be hurting no body. In order for the bears to do damage, they MUST break wedge support. Here’s a 60 minute SPX.. you can see that the top of the wedge is going to be at 1090 very soon…
going to punt SCO if it hits 15.90 again.
Stops on SCO now for 3K at breakeven. Bought 2k more at 15.95
Anyone have any educated idea how low the dollar can go. 10 year low on UUP seems to be around 22.30.
Correction – 2 year low on UUP
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=11683
Just bounced off their reversal point.
Inverse HS forming on dollar.
I have 5K shares now of SCO at an average price of 15.85 and now have a stop in at that price. I’m not carrying that much overnight, so will hopefully unloade some later today (if I don’t get stopped out).
HS also forming on 10 yr DOW – lol
10 more min. and we will know for sure
Funny, belong on letterman. LOL.
does that mean we will correct in 10 years?
in at 15.61–gut feeling is uco has hit highs of the day–it filled gap and fell immediately. will see.
nice call by fritz, we are tanking and will end down by the 200 we shoulda been up.
auctions failing, interest rates higher.
Fritz, what are you doing into this bummer of a close?
What? I don’t remember calling for EOD down by 200. I did say that DOW 9800 was presenting some problem, so I wouldn’t go long (but I wouldn’t go short either). I do expect DOW 9650 to hold at least once tomorrow though.
Still riding AA short, bought 5 AA Oct 14 calls (at a lower price than what I got rid of it for) to protect it now. I am actually going to ride this baby down.
What this will mean for tomorrow? I have to see where the DOW closes at.
Stopped out even on SCO. Will try again later.
that upper 1064 area is a fib projection towards 1090, it’s actually the 62%, which means there’s a possibility we could just take off from here.
the beginning day movement also avg’d around 1064, making it unnecessary to backtest again. if it starts heading towards 1071 again or even breaking north to 1074 and up, i wouldn’t be surprised.
i’ll be considering a long position at 1064, if i’m not too busy with work when it hits, like the last time it hit 1064…stupid work…
chance we could head down to 1059, but i doubt it. that 1054 area has already played a significant role, so i think we have no need to drop back down to that area, or lower than that for that matter. if we are heading to 1090, i’m thinking, we won’t retrace much lower than the 1059 area. either way, all stock positions will be played with fairly tight tops below resistance areas.
Am on the sidelines till I see what the dollar does with the 75.94 low it made. A re-test of it would be the best case for it to be the bottom.
I have a buy order in for 1000 shares of SCO @ 15.70 (which would bring my average down to 16.00). We’ll see if it hits. If it does, I will have 4000 shares at that point and no more will be added.
Hey Morris,
I jumped in the SCO train with you….in at 15.98. Thanks so much for posting!
Best of luck to you Cil!
Thanks, to both of us, Morris. You’re very much appreciated here.
I meant, thanks to you, best of luck to both of us…
RSI is above 70.
UUP inching up and SPy loosing steam for now. Could turn in a heartbeat. Will go long on WOO’s numbers with a tight stop. Great work Master Woo!!
Why is citi locked down? Government unloading shares? Is it going to explode or implode with earnings?
Look at jan 5 2011 calls at 1.05 …… I have a buy order set at 1.02 for 100 contracts…
IMHO C and Bac will break to the upside. They have been sitting on the range for a while now.
I think the next leg up or down will be lead by the Financials. I am cautiously bullish after the GS upgrade so have a higher bias till I see the market roll over. Both Citi and BAC can be good buys here if the market is to continue up but its 50-50 at this point. Keep an eye on both those stocks IMO
Do u think there is a chance the government is getting out of citi in time to break the news on decent earnings? The bought 3% of the shares and citi has been spinning it’s wheels since the pop to 5.50. Orderly dumping of shares over the last few weeks perhaps? Are options indicating a big move-I don’t trade them. Looks like max pain is 5?
I dont think Citi by itself will be a big mover. Also the Govt does not have to do anything with their investment. Nor do I think its time for them to pull the money out. The fundamentals are still too weak and but any news can short term cause a pop or drop in the prices of both BAC and C
meant to say the prince bought 3% of gov shares
last time prince bin laden was a buyer was in 2000 at $12.
would not bank on his record. Did not buy at 1.
according to my hero, michael moore, saudis own 17% of all stock on nyse.
sco–confirmed break on 20, see if it runs.
Target?
will see how it reacts to 50, which is at $16.49. don’t know if it will get there today.
will put stops in below 20 with decent profit, then watch.
Look at Stocktock now compared to just a few months ago. Instead of having almost all bears who would just whine incessantly about bullish market action, we now have a balance of bulls and bears that actually offer good ideas of how to trade the action from both sides. It’s a big improvement.
Morris, where do you see SCO going to? I’m in at $16
I’m looking for 16.60 minimum but I think a trip over 17.00 by EOD tomorrow is certainly possible. Oil is so volatile and this trade is getting trickier every time. Best of luck to you!
Thanks & good luck on your trade too!
Yes, it’s so much better…and what I love about this site is the logic and objectivity…no berating tolerated for a different point of view….
providing you ignore the bull yahoo taunters we’ve managed to attract
The current attitude of a lot of bulls I know is that “sure there is going to be a correction in the market soon” but it’s going to correct from a much higher level. It could very well drop 10% from 1150 but a reasonable trailing stop will protect them on the down side. It sure beats shorting the market.
I think the 3 PM buying spree is just getting started. SPY needs to break above 106.85 on a 10 minute chart with confirmation by 3:00 PM
Yeah, looks like a race between Willie Makeit and Betty Dont!
LOL !!
Does anybodu know how I can find out the history of open interest on any stocks? I would like to see how many open interest we had on puts and calls yesterday or the day before yesterday and how many open interest we have today.
You mean open interest on puts and calls. Search in google for chicago board of trade web site. They have a lot of tools you can use including an options calculator to manage your options prices.
AAPL made a large bottoming candle and if it takes off the market will follow. Looks like it could be GOOG and APL Tag teaming
RSI above 50 and Macd / Stochastics curling up on the 10 min spy. Right now above 10 moving av but below 20 needs to get above 20 to confirm move up
we won’t want to see a break below the 1064 level anymore. we’ve already touched that area 3 times (there was a flare earlier), and the 4th touch could mean a drop down to the 1059 area.
there’s a trend line cross around 1067 which is right around 12 pm PST (now). this could be decent resistance short term, causing a bump down to the bottom to rehit the trend line.
if we break above the mid 1067 area, we could see a good sized rise.
I can feel the bulls and bears fighting
On low volume?
The run up to the close is starting…target 1078.
1078 will not hit today
Moment of truth. If it confirms above 106.85 the bulls might have it
Here comes the 3PM POMO MOMO ramp up!
Still anyones game. Need a 2nd candle above the 2MA
1068 is a good sign.
bull move could take us for another 10 pt rise to 1074 area.
might face resistance short term 1071.
still not a solid enough break, but if it consolidates above 1067, look for more rising.
Master Woo!! What is your Stop LOSS target?
if you’ve got unlimited daytrades, i would consider raising stops below this high 1067 area, and lock things in.
around 1067.3 or so.
then u lock in the 1064-1067 profit. and also don’t run the risk of dropping below the trend line, for a possible fall and 4th touch of the lower trend line to break below 1059.
hmmm….a real fight here. the consolidation above 1064 is good news, but not getting healthy into the 1068 range above a longer term trend line, is not as good.
AAPL Green. Market is looking good
red now
AAPL needs to co-operate for the Bulls to win. UUP is down but I think AAPl is holding the market here.
wud look for a higher finish into close, 1064~1067 band support pretty strong, may pop it up to 1075~1076 for realistic eod tgt. i’ve shorted some Oct puts on SPX….. just earlier.
yeah the consolidation looks pretty solid. would love to see a solid 1068+ so the daily chart has a trend line break. could really take off once 1068 breaks.
Bad sign for JPM… If it doesn’t get above $45.70, it might break down its long term wedge support again tomorrow (after the first break down last week).
One helluva fight going on here!
1068 trend line held…
i’m not entering another position…
i’m not partial to either direction. actually it would look good for a drop back down to the 1048 area for a backtest of a fib and decent retrace of the rise. cash into tomorrow!
Looks Like the bears may have this one… I am Stopped out. Thanks for the advise master WOO
no problem
glad u got to lock in that profit. when it takes that long to get over a certain point, sometimes it’s just not worth the risk. we could easily see a rise to 1071 and higher, or a drop to 1048 area over the next two days.
better to take the profit you can take, and get in better positions later when those moments come.
markets tired going short tomorrow
I wonder who bought AA OCT 14 CALL @ $1.20 from me this morning?
bullish cub
I hope it is the bullish bear. LOL.
I told ya AA would finish flat after surge in afterhours on retail buying.
Bear did not win this day, most of the bear case has given up short stock or
inverse. Buy gold and wait for the dollar implode they are setting up for, let
em play this to death while SLV GLD keep your position safe.
Hi folks,
I’m following this site for quite a while and find it very useful for my trading, so thanks guys for your good work. I’m located in Frankfurt,Germany, but I live in Las Vegas for 3 month per year to play poker.
I want to share a Dow Jones Industrial chart to give all the bears on this site new hope and support from the ‘krauts’. You can find it here:
http://www.godmode-trader.de/nachricht/EW-Analyse-DOW-Jones-Das-geheime-Kursziel,a1900563,b22.html
Just scroll to the end of the page to skip the german text. The chart is from Sep 25th. At that point the author gave the following outlook: A few days rise into the 9800 region following by a drop to 9500ish and then a quick final push to 10495 which is his end of P2 (the labeling in his chart is a little bit different from yours). His optimal turning date would be oct 12th, which is a little too early though, because already next monday. He is calling for a destroying P3 then which will lead the Dow below 4000 in 1-2 years.
I know it’s just another opinion but I wanted to conjure a smile on all the bear faces over here. Don’t let you bring down from the bulls, P3 is coming and it doesn’t take too long any more.
Please don’t blame me for all the typing, interpunction and word order errors but I’m only a stranger from Europe.
Cheers,
Langer
P.S.: Just one last sentence in german: “Manchmal kann mal gar nicht so viel saufen wie man kotzen möchte !!”
Zig Heil Herr Langer, waz machen zie ? (my highschool german shows me a lousy
student, pls no offense if i say something of controvery, trying to say hello, how’s
it hanging?)
I hope the cards and the market are kind to you. Many of us are Uden here but
open to your views and lifestyle. Wish i could do poker for a living, Gott en Himmel !!!
If i end up mixing german and yiddish, sorry. Its an old habit my german neighbors laugh at.
Could you please translate the subtitiles in the charts?
Gutten Glick (good luck in slang). Wellcommen au stock tock.
adding more puts (selling the darn thing)….on spx. think this may be the last head fake before the surge into close.
S&P tanking into close
pretty brave to sell puts in october
1064 won’t be given up that easily.
master Woo!!
Are you holding anything overnight?
nope. staying out of the market overnight. all in cash.
All the good news the last 24 hours and market can’t even close up1% not good.NAZ fading fast
it is up 60% in 6 months on a lot of less than good news. maybe just taking a brake
I wonder who brought the cigars:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125502308629073925.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW
I think the Last 30 minutes is consolidation. The Prices moved sideways…. Tomorrow could be anyones game. Have a great evening everyone!! I still dont see anything bearish about the action.
Put volume on the 106 is 2 times the call volume. Too many bears out there….
Gummie Baren is gummy bears in german.
The world is a bear, no one beleives this rally but the guys pulling the strings
at treasury. The wheels are coming off the bond rigging and we could see the
corrective phase to 800 and beneath,
I know, its not T/A but how can u buy a 30 year or 10 year yeilding 3-5% when
the currency has put you -12^ % at loss in less than a month?
We should ask our german visitor to describe the markets and bunds on that
side.
Also, how is real inflation and job loss in the EU? I know, he’s a card player
and not an economist. LOL.
Very interesting finish. Anybody else here feel strongly about a down day tomorrow, and Monday. I took a risk and went short 10 minutes before closing and held all positions. Got tight stops in case things go against me tomorrow. I have a funny feeling this pullback is upon us. Any reply’s are appreciated, and I’m very grateful for all insight shared on this board.
For those of you still bullish into tomorrow, may I suggest a long look at the MACD on the SPX and SPY. If that isn’t divergence I am not sure what is. 106ish was pretty key area to watch and we only managed a couple points above it and closed below it on what everybody thought would be very bullish day. I think the bears took control at the 61.8 area off today’s high. I think I mentioned to those feeling bullish that you should sell into strength today. Stops for shorts around 1068.30ish would be appropriate.
That should be 1069ish not 106ish, sorry.
Can agree with MACD but stochastics seem to be embedding. Would think that 1059 on SPX should come into play–will be interesting.
OX – what timeframe are you looking at ?
Daily is where I saw this Anjali. I hope this is large enough to see:
http://i399.photobucket.com/albums/pp80/cnest/10809spy.gif
So AA slowly sold off after the morning pop… I decided to dump my AA calls and held onto my AA shaers short at the open for three reasons:
1) The gap up was not strong (slow decline in the pre-market trading was the clue)
2) The gap up places AA outside of upper Bollinger band
3) The gap fill may actually be a trend changer
JPM closed below $45.70, that’s actually trouble. It may break down its long term rising wedge support again.
AXP is acutally strong, and it’s showing the most beautiful rising wedges out there.
BAC must slowly drift upwards if it wants to gap up on earnings on opex day; otherwise, it could be a pump-and-dump.
DOW had trouble with 9800. When I saw the rise this morning on low volume, I told myself not to short DXD, especially when the DOW showed a rising wedge fom 9:30 to 1:00 ET.
If I were to go long, it will only be DOW 9415 – 9500. It’s my price or no trade at all. Running out of time to get to DOW 10150 – 10300, and unfortunately the DOW can’t gap up the way AA does. Still not going to get too bearish until DOW 9415 is broken solidly.
ERX is very bullish guys, if you are bull play it
Another low volume rise
Exactly. Smells very much like a crash coming to me, but how soon is the question? What do you think??
It smells like a crash?
Really?
Fritz, trying to follow. On 3), are you talking about gap from yesterday or three days ago? Also, if either filled, doesn’t it depend on time?
The gap from yesterday. Gaps can be filled any time, so it really doesn’t matter. Some gaps are never covered (look at WCG gap from October 24 2007).
I don’t use moving averages the same way as everyone else. I have what I call “moving expected prices” on different time scales, and they act as moving support/resistance. $14.17 is where the strongest line stands. Yesterday it closed above this so that was my final confirmation that earnings would beat. Today it drifts towards that so that’s my signal to hold onto shares short, but hedged with AA Oct 14 calls I bought back at less than half the price I sold it for. Now even if I have to call it to cover my short, I’m at a net profit of $250. It’s small but like I said, it was to test the water for Q3 earnings.
Now the ideal thing for me would be for AA to drop into the $12 range much earlier than opex and I can close my positions at a profit.
yeah did i hear the word crash? upward thrust type of crash i suppose…. sticking to the long view just because my 2 friends who are the biggest contrarian indicators are both bearish! sometimes, as simple as that….
I bought $2000 worth of SPY calls at 0.48$ last week.
they’re priced at 1.21 today.
not too bad.. I probably won’t cover them until opex.
I would recommend sell half of sell a spread to get your investment out. I would do that if I was you
For all you Big Wet believers…here’s his latest (Tuesday) vid. He’s still not in the go-higher-from-here camp.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTCf5widP6o