2:44pm
A break of 105.15 would mean the end of the push lower as we have an inverse H&S breakout… the bears need to push this market down now if they want to form a reversal day.
2:27pm
If you are short and want to get protection to the upside , SPX at 1047 or 1042.20 is a good place to be buying longs.
2:10pm
Financials disagree with the rally. XLF down.
1:46pm
Yes, we are up significantly for the day, but lets not forget that we gapped up, therefore even ending the day at these levels will not be bullish because we have reversal candles on a lot of stocks, A LOT OF them. Bulls need to push us above 1055 or higher for me to believe in a sustained upward trending into tomorrow. Bears breaking 1052.50 is important but ultimately you want to see a break of 1047.
12:52pm
Bears finally back in, resistance held. But for bears to be better off into tomorrow, we have to see more downward action BELOW 105.30 on the SPY.
11:32am
Last resistance for the bears was hit a few minutes ago with the perfect retrace of the wedge (120 SPX )
10:41am
SPY 60 minute. downward channel potentially breaking unless bears push lower soon:
10:28am
I got stopped lossed on almost every position with small profits and AAPL with small losses. The Hedge fund was stopped loss on WYNN, GYMB yesterday. S&P still has to break the 1057 level, if it does so, we will see more upside. AMZN, JPM, SBUX still in play.
2:46am
I am back but will start commentary late tomorrow. I wanted to say that there is still a potential for a move higher to 9650. That said we are overdue for a pull back, so if we open lower I would be looking to get out of shorts and wait for the market to bounce midday and short at the retest of the broken small wedge ascending support as resistance at 9650 or a max of 1057 on the S&P.
If we get a pull back early tomorrow, going long with a stop under 1018 still works. Going short with a stop over 1057 works too.
Is it me, or does this look like healthy consolidation for the next move up??
Anjali, in case you don’t see my response in the older comments:
**The bullish case would be dead for October 2nd market top, not dead entirely. I apologize for not making that explicitly clear.
There is a possibility of a high (not sure if it’ll be a new high) on October opex since 9650 was breached today, and if that is confirmed tomorrow, you’re looking at 99% bears turning bullish towards October opex.
DOW 9415 – 9430 is the band where 38.2% retracement of the move lower (October 2007 to March 2009) is at, and it was breached good, so it is a strong support (one of the strongest ones out there). The fact that last Friday morning’s sell-off registered a -220 point divergence from expected DOW level for that day, coupled with strong support at 9415, I knew it would result in a strong bounce. (Plus shorts got excited again and thought bad fundamentals brought down the market, bad sign!)
The market laready has an idea what it wants to do before news events, so one cannot rely too much on fundamental analysis. I am not discounting the fundamentals, but the time to re-connect it with market price movement has not yet arrived.
DOW levels:
10000, 9900, 9850, 9800, 9650, 9600, 9475, 9415
October opex closing DOW level will determine the magnitude of the upcoming drop, and the two drops in 2010.
Got it – thanks !!
Excellent points, Fritz. Thanks for your informative posts!
glad i didn’t get in on that put position for a small scalp on fear of a rise like this. i’m still leaning towards a possible move higher towards 1090, but like i’ve been saying i’m fine with the peak having already hit.
areas i’m currently watching:
1054.75
1047.4
Am I dreaming? GS is leading the market down?
think a rally to 10500 on dow….why? clicking over 10k is what gets everyone inclu media excited
if this 1054.7 area holds, we could go up to the channel and hit a long term trend line at 1065
areas to watch north of here: 1059, 1065
south: 1054.7, 1047.4
50ma – 1047.6
200ma -1040.75
Morris, what’s ur target for sco?
Thanx….
I would like to see 16.70 minimum which would net me 1k on the trade.
Just looked at my account, my JPM short order has been filled (at exactly $45.00!), so I cancelled the put orders. I have now placed a squeeze order (half stop and half limit), with the stop at $44.80 and a limit at $40.00
1000 JPM short sold at $45.00
500 stop buy order set at $44.80
500 limit buy order set at $40.00
I will keep lowering the stop to squeeze the market, rather than the other way around. My idea is whichever gets filled first, I will modify the other order to market buy or stop buy order. I’ve used this strategy since June, and it has worked well.
How would you play this using puts ?
First I look for reward potential, must be able to gain minimum 200% before I’ll consider it.
Then limit sell half at double the purchase price, and let the other half run (sometimes into opex expiration).
I don’t like using options any time other than major declines or major run-ups. I try to stay away from them as much as I can.
Lowered my JPM stop to $44.50 since I have a meeting in 5 minutes.
this area will be the last chance to cut the shorts and go long, no more breaks in between til we reach 1090~1120 region….and ultimately 10500 on dow.
your cute!!!.
This is not a dating site, lol.
Necking with this guy will get u banned here.
but he is so cute with all his posts…like a cheerleader in a mini skirt…rah rah rah on no volume ..I love his posts..
if the rally is based on douches like this guy buying..I feel very safe being short..LOL
gaps do not have to be filled for a continued run up,they will get them on the way back down
That’s exactly right! This is the reason I always play it cautiously.
For UCO, if you are a bear, then gap fill should occur (up), if you are looking for a big fall.
————— CHA CHING ————- took some HOD.TO right at the high of day. everything im in is going my way. looks like NYT will behave like it should. back to $6 or so is what im looking for. not today or tomorrow but soon.
Fritz, and Woo and Morris
If we close under 1057, do you still beleive that we need to make a double top or hit 10500 before we have a correction?
Also with gold rising to new highs is this telling you something?
Yesterdays volume on NYSE was down by 20%. what does that mean in terms of the financials breaking down?
Sorry about the multiple questions? TIA
I actually don’t care about the exact top, I care about the day before major decline. We’re not there yet, so I’m only shorting stocks that have confirmed broken uptrend.
very smart fritz.
close under 1057 isn’t that significant.
i’m considering a very small long position at 1047-1048 area. could drop to 1042-1043, will double my call position there. but still a small position.
a strong break of 1021 on the 60 minute would have been significant. a break of the trend line below at 1018-1019 at that time would have been significant, but we’re at around 1022 on the bottom of the longer term charts. bulls haven’t let anything go in the past couple months….
spy oct call 105 strike @1.52
swing / day trade – where are you looking to exit this ?
raised my stop to 1.57.
hoping for 1054, if not a solid 1059-1060.
will see how the market reacts there,
if 1050 area holds solid, i’ll raise my stops to that area.
woohooo. looking for 1054 area short term.
hopefully this sucker just blows north towards 1065, and at least makes a solid mark on 1059
sold almost all longs at 1058 for a $30K profit today…..except still holding FEED and SWHC. Heads-up….if SP actually goes red at EOD, then that will be one of the most extremely bearish signs in a while.
Good job!
I bought some $106 calls this morning. I was up on them earlier but now I’m in the red slightly. I probably will hold for protection since I think this upswing can run through $110 easily by OpEx.
awesome job!
Nice. Would you mind listing your executions? What did you trade? How many shares? When did you buy? Excellent job.
Wow – that is awesome !!
will add to positions on URE, FAS, USO @ 1046, 1042 (60 min.) Thanks Idan. Tight stops.
raised stop to 1.75
hopefully we consolidate above this 1054 area, and below 1056, and then take off north towards 1059-1060 again.
bear’s reversal attempt failed in their face!! now wait for a move to 1090~1120 be smooth sailing as all brick supports been built up….just bot some more spy calls
another cute post.. i’m so nervous right now..you seem to have it all fig. out
So far he has been right
GS down most of today (relative) due to huge oil derivatives lose?
See:
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/item.php?itemid=1121516
B.S. I believe. GS simply doesn’t lose money.
I don’t like GS down a big up date,that takes selling presssure away for hopefully a downday for tomorrow .
Idan:
Is AMZN still on your overbought list or are you close to getting stopped out ?
definitely is.
i wonder if we’ll see a 1056 break before EOD…
probably will just consolidate between 1054-1056
raised stops to 1.89.
if we break north towards 1059+ that’s great, if not i’ll stop out.
oops, meant 1.87.
might hit really soon, might be too high a stop, but i’m a little uneasy holding options overnight.
consolidation between 1054 and 1056 is generally a bull sign, and could mean opening into new highs, but with this market there are no guarantees.
hopefully the next 20 minutes shows a stronger rise and break of 1056, but i’m not sure if the market has the steam.
ok stopped out while i was typing.
1.52-1.87 scalp
haha, stopped out while i was typing lol
haha yeah. i hate it when that happens, but in this case i guess i don’t mind since i locked in about 25% profit. hopefully my puts will pay off into tomorrow. if not, i’m getting out ASAP. i’m not risking a ridiculous rise.
picked up another 500 SKF @ 24.90 a little while ago so I now have 1000 shares at an average of 25.45
I should have added when it was under 24.50 earlier today but I’ve been swamped at work and away from the computer. Oh well, we’ll see how it goes.
Man you are BRAVE. I got stopped out of my UCO at 11.52.
I donot have the kahunas to short bank stocks before earnings. To me, BAC and C are consolidating in a tight range and they may break out soon.
GLTU
I am probably a mix of brave and stupid. I think they call that foolhardy.
took a small put position into tomorrow. 1054 area held. looking good for a short scalp on the 60 minute.
————— OIL ————– looks like a bear flag…………. back in HOD.TO
—————– UUP ————- TAGGED lower bollinger and BOING … look for strength in the USD$ short term and commodities to fall. dis vat i tink.
UCO–I see it on 60 min. but if we gap down tomorrow, am a buyer on 200ma.
Also, have traded POT several times, looking for entry toward end of year (spring is best for profits). Obvious gap fill on 6 mo. chart–do you follow? If so, any thoughts?
1054.4 is the fib projection that will be fairly significant here…
fib stib stab me in the rib. im tired of you making all the right calls and helping grow my trading account. you and your 1080
lol. good to have you back rich.
still a chance we could break north to 1090, but i’m not positive yet. market is starting to get tricky.
have a very SMALL put position into tomorrow as i think this 1054 area on the 60 min will hold, and take us to the 1047 or even 1043 levels.
we’ll see from there, i’ll consider short term calls if it hits there.
Can anyone tell me how to get fib retracement tools on TD Amer. command center?
Should be a draw tab on tool bar
I don’t use command center but you can make fib retracements on TDA strategy desk under the “draw” tab … hope this helps
Apparently my stop got filled on JPM, and the market is now closed.
For the remainder short JPM shares, I have modified:
200 JPM stop buy @ $45.00 GT October 16
300 JPM limit buy @ $40.00 GT October 16
I’m sure that $45 stop is going to be hit tomorrow, and I’ll have to modify the remainder 300 JPM short shares to a stop order. $250 so far with the squeeze.
And BAC closed right on $17? I think I will release it on parole and monitor its price action over the next two days.
200 shares? what a piker! Stop posting advice to others until you trade several thousand shares at a time bro.
I believe he was referencing to post #8, where he shorted 1000 shares of JPM. He uses half limit, half stop. He calls it ‘squeeze order’, and he got stopped out at $44.50 on 500 shares, that’s why he modified the order to what he posted here.
At least he posts his trades here, and his comments are appreciated. I don’t see you posting your trades.
Think he has a game plan for the long term, with many stocks on list. Appreciate his posts, need to hear from you more often. By the way, have traded several times–most notably, faz (bought feb. 25, 7,000 shares @ $52, sold march 6, @ $90.7). As you can do the math, it is not about monies, but about learning the market!!! By the way, thanks Uner.
That kind of comment has no value to this board. It doesn’t matter how much or how many shares you trade each time. The most important factor of successful trading is accuracy on market calls and timing, not the size of your trade. We all have different budgets and we are here to share info and learn to trade better. In fact, the size of the trade posted has no meaning for me, it is not my loss or gain.
As a matter of fact, I don’t recall you posting any useful comments on this board. I’d like to see your views on the markets, perhaps you could share your insights with us.
I expect a drop sometime tomorrow and then a possible continuation of today’s rally. If we close above 1060 I’d be bullish in the short term. I’ve sold my tck.b.to call this morning for 17% gain overnight and bought puts on POT and sold them same day today for 20% gain and bought them back again before the close.
So woo… where we going tomorrow? Fritz? Zee?
I assume you missed out on buying the dip at DOW 9430 last Friday?
Sad to say but I think the market may ignore fundamentals for a while… Keep an eye on Washington, not Wall Street diversions or economic reports, and you’ll be able to pick out the start date of the next major decline. Start of the next decline is not going to be related to economics, but missed earnings and worse than expected fundamentals will likely be used as excuses to pop the bubble.
Fritz we will keep an eye on your posts for the major decline
What to do from now until OPEX?
Buy any strong, rips downwards that takes us to sub 1030 untill OPEX.
October 16/19 (OPEX) will be a top that you will not want to miss being short…
..
Zee – can you share some more info on this – is this based on your cycles charts – would be great if you could share ….
TIA
based on cycle charts.. ill post an update .. check the photos.
Uner, can you update your “megaphone” chart?