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12:02pm
There’s something bullish about today’s sell off, it strengthens the potential for a megaphone sell off.. as can be seen in the daily picture below bounded by the 2 blue rays. BUT today we broke the first ascending wedge, which is bearish. Bears have to break support of megaphone after a small retracement in order for me to get more bearish.
SPX daily:
11:59am
SRS break of 10.40 would get me bullish on the stock as it shows that it has formed a double bottom formation and has finally bottomed! The 10.20-10.40 resistances, after they break can form support on a retest too.
here’s a 60 minute SRS:
11:56am
Moving FAZ stops UP to under 21.40 , and TZA to under 12.50. Rememeber our entries were 20.05 on FAZ and 11.57 on TZA.. looking good.
11:51am
RSI incredibly oversold here in the mid 20s.. we might need a few candles of consolidation or more before we can get another dump.
11:45am
Oil is being controlled right now by the talks with iran… anything can happen, but i rather be on the short side based on technicals, with stops, if fundamentals change.
11:41am
Last glimmer of hope for the bulls lies at 1035-1036.. then it’s a shot down to 1014-1018… oil falling down strongly now, like we said, an amazing entry point on the USO to short was at 36.05, and a stop at 35.80 . With that the dollar is bouncing up nicely, and a break of 1035, would mean the bulls are done for. We will need confirmation of the break tomorrow assuming jobs numbers aren’t too bullish.
11:23am
My target for wynn is around 62.30ish.
11:22am
TRADE: Taking profits on LVS shorts today.. at 15.95$.. wow we had a nice 20% move here… Just like STEC 2 weeks ago. People can hold this short with a stop, i’m taking profits because I want to allocate money elsewhere.
11:07am
The USO break of 36.05 would mean that oil has failed to rally back into the triangle and we move lower from here. I would short it there.
11.00am
After the SPX hit the 1040 level we got a nice bounce, ever since we’ve formed a bear flag formation.. can we get more downside today? My guess is yes, because the buyers are stock, and will panic soon.
10.00am
The news was not bad… but the market sold off. S&P new lows… 1035-1040 will be the support to break.
9:46am
XLF is at the lows from yesterday… a great indicator would be if the XLF breaks to new lows.. that to me would suggest a potential new trend. Oil, however, (USO) is breaking back into the triangle, lets see if it can hold its gains or fall back down. Dollar remains relatively strong though.
9:37am
Wow jobs completely crushed the market. We will have a lot of news at 10 am, but if this news does not raise the market, there will be NO FLOOR in the market today, as bulls are trapped. All the stocks on my short list are down, some are down more than 3%.
Wynn has a nice H&S with a neckline at 68$, LVS is confirming a daily break of it’s 20 SMA, very very bearish….AAPL is the only stock that’s holding up out of the bunch…
Today is going to be big no matter how you slice it from 8:30 am to 10 am we have a lot of information. I recommend not trading until all of it is out, or you might be in for a surprise or two. I plan to short some AMZN if we get to a double top area at around 95$, I plan to also go short some more SBUX around the 21 level.
Important news to watch out for:
Personal Income at 8:30am (BIG market mover)
Jobless Claims at 8:30am (BIG market mover)
Ben Bernanke speaking at around at 9 am (market mover)
30 Yr Bond Announcement at 9 am (relatively big market mover this year due to the investor worries that the US won’t be able to finance it’s debt).
ISM data (Big Market mover) at 10am
Construction Spending (Now a days has become a big market mover) at 10 am
Pending Home Sales (Big market mover) at 10 am
Nat Gas Report 10.30 am (small market mover)
Bond auctions at 11 am (market movers these days)
We also have the fed balance sheet at 4:30pm , last time it moved the market slightly afterhours.
word of caution for bulls, this will probably have to eventually come back down to that 1034 area to create a solid resistance or support there. i would consider raising stops just in case, to lock in profits, even though it’s a small scalp, i wouldn’t recommend adding positions here at the moment to anything long.
Dow and SP down and oil even! something is going to give.
Still holding my UCO
I know, this is very surprising. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
I cleared off my oil trade for a small loss. I felt like I was chasing it and didnt feel comfortable in this one. I’m going to keep my powder dry for what I expect to be a longer term sell signal early next week. The bears seem to be following through on the short side which makes me think we have started P3. Will know soon enough.
Hi Morris,
Are you still holding your SCO shares? I sold about half of my position @16.83. Still holding 480 shares. What are your plan on this trade?
I may be biased but this is pure profit taking in the eq market.
Still holding the full position with no plans to bail at this point.
RIFIN is looking like it’s going to bounce…….so does GS
wud u believe? if mkt gains it all back and then some tomrw? why? because 1031~1034 region is holding….it’s very telling!
just dont give up do you,yesterday weren’t you talking 1090
actually bullish bear has a good point. this 1031-1034 area has some significant fibs and trend lines. i know i’ll be grabbing calls until the 1031 break.
FRITZ-in comment 16 you mention a 40% decline,are you looking for a 40% decline in the indices in the next 60 days?? In case you missed thisquestion earlier
40% from top to bottom before year end (should be before Black Friday). There are two other major declines to come in 2010 (which I will try to front-run again), and March 2010 will not likely be another bottom like March 2009 (i.e. no big rally starting in March 2010). Another good sized bear market rally should take place in very late 2010.
I acutally don’t care about the magnitude of the decline, I am trying to make good stock picks to make more than 4000% during the upcoming decline.
Thanks Fritz i follow McHugh and he is calling for the same.
That doesn’t make me very comfortable if he is calling for the same
well not to many calling for 40% and last year he was right on.In fact at one point his projections seemed so far fetched they were laughable but they all hit.
sold all my TZA shares
oil not co-operate
1039.8 = 200 ma
transform to woo of the waves with admin privileges!
60 minute 1074 chart, which shows you all the retraces of the current movement.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p69087813079&a=177711272
1090 chart projections:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p14877449821&a=160222837
beautiful hold on the 1034.6 area as expected on the 60 minute chart.
wooaaah transformer !!!
thanks for keeping us updated.
Congrats wooo nice to see the jews farming out work to china.
I would like to extend my warm welcome to XOM & BAC for joining my club.
Current members of the club: KFT, JPM, JNJ, XOM, BAC.
Watching YGE and YRCW…
YGE is a fun one. i made a ton of money off yge options back in the china boom/bubble
Woo,, yeah YGE has been a great money maker,, if you catch it right
xx.. Good idea about the popcorn.. actually got my self some..
Got in YRCW at 4.48.. stop at 4.40
I’m playing only 500 shares btw,, so max loss is around $50
$104 on the SPY looks like clean resistance. Bounced from it twice already today.
Financials spending a lot of time here rolling out the bottom for a right shoulder. EOD push up 763 is holding nicely. Looking for 777 or so. FAZ has done well past two days time for a break?!! I expect a bounce to 181.5 182 on GS as well. This will see 165 again soon….
Also think if we see GS above 182……185.5 186 is next.
I am kicking myself hard on shorting natural gas trade. I bought HND.TO @4.94 (almost at the bottom), sold @5.15. It is @5.91 as I type this.
Woo possible to upload your charts here or give us another link . I m not a member of stockcharts.
thanks.
1090
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/wooew6-month-14?context=user
1074
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/wooew6-monthoption-2-1?context=user
thank you very much
XLF just broke its uptrend as well.
i would LOVE to see 1031.9 area tomorrow
You got it now
got even more than i asked lol.
Woo, so are we in a confirmed down trend or do we need to fall a bit more to go short?
lol, and then some. Futures up 3 pts.
optionmonster has a guy from the S&P futures pit saying they are looking to sell the S&P futures down to the 1020s… Probably roughly correspond to high 1020s-low 1030s in cash.
1024ish got hit at the close there.
He was right on.
The fact that JPM shot down this much this quickly makes me wonder if the back test will happen tomorrow…
VIX 26.18 has become support for tomorrow.
be careful
I personally am not shorting this market until 1025 breaks..
I am expecting a 1% pop at some point in the trading session tomorrow. I will use the pop to short BAC, JPM, and JNJ.
What you gonna do if the pop doesn’t come, and there’s a 100 pt loss?
There will be. They don’t go down in a straight line. In order for there not to be a pop tomorrow there needs to be a 400+ points loss on the DOW, and 9415 must be broken. I’m sure the bulls won’t give up 9415 that easily, so odds favor a pop which I can use to short.
I hope so too, so I can add some more to my shorts. I just try to work out in my mind for the possibilities, not just what I think.
Plus I was already short XOM from last month.
I don’t think It’s too late to short FDS yet, there is a gap between 62 and 63 that ‘ll need to fill soon.
wtf is going on with oil?
It never gave up..tomorrow should be interesting
Friday morning Bear-B-Q. Yum
Yeah, but beefsteak now is way too good to pass up.
Ok once again. 3min, what are you buying
a couple hours ago, I bought AIPC, CBE, CHU, SWKS, CSCO, SWHC, MO, FEED, and JCI
Mostly in cash…still.
The bears stretched this rubber band to far to the downside, I will not hold any short term unhedged shorts into tomorrow.
*too far
Yep, risk/reward is now down here on the bulls side for a nice bounce
Wow. What a day of trading. I got up big with riding those bears on the 3x’s through the mid-day, then got stopped out of Oct 105 calls at 1.43. At the end, with that tank I was re-buying them all below 1.30. Got a boatl;oad with an average of 1.29. It looked to nail (the SPX) there at the close at 1030ish. I gotta think the mkt gaps up tomorrow (I’m hoping), though it could gap down too (I get screwed). Futures headed up slightly after the close now.
Oh, I also picked up SCO again at 16.60, as CL looks like it wants to go back down to 70 or below? That was a heck of a zigzag there the last few days, as it went up to backtest the channel. Should drop now to continue trend lower is the thinking.
Amateurish action at the close. Gap up tomorrow?
Wow we sold off hard into the close…
I think everybody was taking some off the table in anticipation of a -250k print on the jobs number tomorrow.
I positioned myself slightly bearish for tomorrow. I am hoping to remove my hedges tomorrow if we gap up.
I’m starting to think Goldman revised their numbers higher so they can say that the real number “beat” their estimates…
Feels like P3 to me. Small short positions doing well. Need follow through to pile in. Keep it up bears.
Tomorrow should let us see a bounce up for a bit then some more afternoon selling in my opinion. I said yesterday we may not see 1060 again, but have yet to set up targets in either direction. Today was just too fun to be actively chatting. Our little room did an awesome job of capitalizing on numerous stocks, even long TLT and KR on da bulls side of things. I am still holding or added to all the short positions I put on yesterday. Sold a couple only to buy back in November which was what I meant to do yesterday. Need to pay more attention. I know metals and miners got to some important areas today that I think most held, at least for now. Need to go study some charts, but hope all of you made money today
.
I am staying short. Do I think we could move up tomorrow? Sure! Dramatically so? I HIGHLY doubt it.
1. Jobs tomorrow. If GS is right they will miss consensus of -170 by a mile. If we miss by 80k like GS thinks we may not have priced that in. We could see more downside even so.
2. Massive technical damage done.
3. Possible serious downside for international markets tonight.
Could we get an oversold bounce tomorrow? Possibly. If it does will it be by much… doubt it unless jobs are really strong which they will likely not be.
Larry Fink on CNBC saying we went to far to the upside.
There is strong support at 102.13 on SPY. So we could drop another 1% before the bounce. Resistance is now at 104.62. The e-minis in the AH will tell us what to expect tomorrow. I’m cautiously bullish but if it it crashes below 102.13 decisively I will lighten up.
I think GS just wants the numbers to beat better-than-expected tomorrow, so they raise the bar.
I don’t think Goldman would put out a number of -250k unless they thought the consensus was way too high at -170.
The uncertainty in the market is huge right now because of the 1 possibility that this is it–we have topped. I would definetely NOT discount this opinion.
However, if we stay above the numbers in my chart (1027 and 985 on the SPX), I am certainly buying equities.
IMO, This just looks like a buying opportunity as long as we hold above 985– long is good!! If we drop below that, you better get out fast
Morris.
Am new to StockTalk but really like Idan and your stuff. Iran is allowing the nuclear inspectors. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alzY9x2wVGos
This should bring dwon crude and hel SCO.
I meant crude will go down and will help SCO to go up. thanks.
It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow with oil. The fact that it held up so well today is a little worrisome. Best of luck to you!
Thanks Morris. Good luck to u as well.
Reasons why a pop tomorrow is highly probable:
-The sell-off near the close was on momentum and smelled amateurish
-The bulls will not give up DOW 9450 and DOW 9415 without a fight of their lives
-The DOW ended with a divergence of -150 points from its normal (expected) level, 90% of the time it tries to wipe out at least 61.8% of the divergence at some point during the next trading session
-There needs to be a back test on stocks that just broke their uptrend with conviction today
-It’s Friday
-The market is not yet supposed to sell off hard
-Volume in the final minutes smelled more like accumulation
-The market is not yet supposed to sell off hard
says who..you?..
His opinion— and posts are appreciated from someone who does a lot of homework (unlike some here, who just wing it). Appreciate your stance also–would like both of you to be ultimately correct.
I asked him a question about his statement..
the market is not yet supposed to sell off..
okay ..why?
Just my opinion, but think that the sell off was more than anticipated, not allowing bears to create further momentum for the final push downward. Would expect many retail investors (including me) to take long positions for potential scalp, with the possibility of going to higher levels (megaphone). Will see tomorrow.
Hey blackhawk, you do know that some people do homework and still end up with a failing grade, right? Results are the only thing that matter in the end, no matter how they might be achieved.
Fritz is not in that group though and his posts are certainly appreciated.
Just as long as they don’t cheat!
Fritz, What do you mean by close was on momentum ?? Could you also your third reason when you say “The DOW ended with a divergence of -150 points from its normal (expected) level, 90% of the time it tries to wipe out at least 61.8% of the divergence at some point during the next trading session. Thanks
Wow, I didn’t know my last post would stir things up so much. Here is my clarification:
“-The market sold off on momentum into the close” & “Volume in the final minutes smelled more like accumulation”
It was a positive feedback loop in the final 30 minutes, when day traders who took longs decided not to hold positions overnight, and retails who bought at 1080 and 1069 got scared and sold. Blue chip stocks, however, mostly closed right above their support levels, and the large chunk of sell orders were absorbed. The DOW closed at 9509 after reaching a low of 9500, about 0.5% away from 9450 which is a critical support. Supports don’t usually break on the first attempt.
“-The DOW ended with a divergence of -150 points from its normal (expected) level…”
The expected level is the average value where the DOW is traded at during the past two days and the current trading session. The DOW, 90% of the time, touches this value at some point during the trading session (think laws of attraction). The greater the divergence between the expected value and the closing value, the bigger the swing in the next trading session. Generally I exit my positions when 61.8% of the divergence is wiped out. I used this to trade since September 15 2008 to June 2009 when the divergence was triple digits, I won 90% of the time, and the 10% were very negligible losses compared to the wins. I am not saying it will pop tomorrow for sure, I am saying that there is a very good chance it will do so since wiping out the divergence with a bigger divergence on the negative side requires a 400 point drop by the DOW tomorrow and closing at the lows, but that will only setup bigger snap back on Monday. Smart bears know not to mess with that.
“-The market is not yet supposed to sell off hard”
I know some of you who might be heavily short right now want to see this thing selling off like crazy, but I am just looking at the fact that we have a major support at DOW 9415 that cannot be ignored. Remember July 6 to July 10? That was when many people were heavily short and ignored DOW 8100 right beneath. Sure the market faked out below, but what followed was every short seller and bear’s nightmare.
I also mentioned previously that my analysis is timing based, and that’s how I was front running the declines on September 15 2008, October 6 2008, November 4 2008, February 10 2009, and June 15 2009. Did I pick out the January 6 2009 top? No. Did I lose any thing? No. The decline from January 6 2009 to its first bottom was roughly 1100 points, but there were lots of whipsaws towards the lower range, and market did go back up towards February 9. What happened since February 10 until early March? It was pretty much a straight line down. THAT is what I am aiming for, not the whipsaws. You can make money by entering and exiting at the right times during the whipsaws, but that’s not my style. I look for certainty in a trade, not casino.
Won’t even sell off if we hit 10% tomorrow?
Fritz, at times like this you need to stick what you know and believe in. You don’t have to make calls, or take crap from anybody. Only you know how successful you are. You have no reason to answer to anybody but yourself. It is obvious there is some trust in what you do, try to remember that. Keep that in mind, and do what you do for you, not them. There should never be pointing of a finger in any direction. Plenty have and / or will be wrong again, that’s what this entails. For me your posts are something to take into consideration, and I do. Whether I want to agree or disagree is my decision alone, but it’s something to think about for me. As I read the posts intraday or overnight, it seems somebody always needs and excuse to follow or not follow. I don’t recall a place on this site that states that you have to do what is said here. I commend you for what you do and try to point out to the rest. I find this forum to be opportunistic for those that pay attention and aren’t 1 sided.
Great job and keep up the good work (for you),
Ox
Thanks OxTrader for your support. What I try to do here is to provide an analysis that is not based on emotion but rather mathematics and probabilities (much like what Woo does). There was a time when I traded on emotion, and I’ve learned my lessons and I try to point that out here so that others don’t have to go through the same tough lessons. I will take your advice, and keep posting what my analysis reveals, providing both bullish and bearish perspectives.
Fritz great post ,really appreciate your updates please don’t ever get frustrated and quit.There is alot to be learned from you so hope the questions are not to redundant.
That is very good advice Fritz. I have gained a lot from your sharing. I am looking forward to your insights this Fall/Winter as I think large declines are in the not too distant future.
So when are you shorting Fritz?
Tomorrow, deploying 20% of my cash on BAC, JPM (for the first time in two months), and a bit on the Toronto Stock Exchange as well (TSX also broke its uptrend today).
I have already shorted XOM since late August.