PART 1
PART 2
Today was the last day of the month and quarter, and therefore it held quite a bit of significance. While most people expected a nice rally due to the window dressing theory, we ended up getting a strong sell off on bad news followed by bulls buying the dips. My theory is that today is probably going to be the last time the bulls will buy the dip. More specifically, if tomorrow’s jobs numbers shoves the markets down, we will not see the bulls buy back in, the bulls that bought today will be trapped and probably sell in panic. For me to be a full on bear though, I have to see a break of the 1035-1040 buffer zone. We also look at the monthly candle and how it closed below the 20 SMA monthly as resistance. Last time we hit the 20 SMA monthly we fell significantly lower. In addition i talk about shorting a basket of individual stocks VS the SPY: WYNN, LVS, SBUX, AMZN, AAPL, GYMB, USO, VIX, UUP
I think you’re a little too focused on the jobless numbers tomorrow. It’s a weekly number and doesn’t hold much significance as the MONTHLY numbers, which come out on Friday. If anything I expect tomorrow to be a sideways market in preparation for Friday’s jobs number.
That’s true but tomorrow jobless claims sets up for so much more, it sets up for ISM it sets up for housing it sets up for a lot of things.. it’ll be more interesting than friday.
Really great technical analysis. Thanks a lot Idan.
The number tomorrow is NOT jobs, nor is it the personal income and spending, nor is it even pending home sales… the number to more IS ISM at 10AM. ISM <50 and we sell-off hard.
market will break on the upside, trust my guts more than charts
Ken Lewis from BAC resigned today…
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ken-lewis-gone
What is the unemployment # the market is looking for tomorrow?
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
Click on the Consensus box by Jobless Claims to see the estimates.
It’s all about jobs now to us bulls. I’m not an Idan fan, but he is right about this one. I bought on the dip and made a bundle today. Sold all but 25% into the rally. I will sell it all if jobs suck and look to re-enter in a couple weeks or 980, whichever comes first.
Still see 1100 by year end for sure.
By the way, rarely is window dressing done on the last day of the month.
ISM is enormously important. If manufacturing starts dropping again even if you have an improvement in jobs it won’t last. You saw the reaction to Chicago PMI today… ISM is like Chicago PMI, but for the whole country. I saw Joe Terranova (big bull) on FastMoney today… What did he say? “Chicago PMI was bad, but I want more confirmation, I want to see ISM tomorrow.” I’d actually think it would be funny to see the bulls lulled into a false sense of security with an ok weekly claims number buy up the market only to get crushed by ISM at 10AM.