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10:08am
I have to get on a flight, but lets hope this market can break 1040 today.. again notice how a lot of my stocks are underperforming the SPY. WYNN, SBUX, AAPL, AMZN, LVS, GYMB (those are my favorite shorts).
9:55am
PMI numbers were horrible… that’s what caused the sudden shock in the markets to the downside. Closing around these levels will give the bears an opportunity to take the market down in october… any level under 1040 will be regarded very bearish.
9:46am
Just as i spoke AMZN fell 1%, and AAPL is now negative.. amazing. That’s why i’m telling you to be selective with your shorts!
9:41am
The fact that the SPY cannot hold gains, despite the great GDP news, should be viewed as somewhat bearish. Again the bears need to sell this market off dramatically today in order for me to be convinced in a bloody october… I recommend sticking to shorting individual stocks. I took another Short in AMZN today upon strength. AAPL is up slightly. But my other stocks: WYNN, LVS, SBUX etc. are down way more than the SPY.
9:20am
CIT is weighing down on the market, the bankruptcy of this company could mean retail will suffer. Nonetheless with improving economic indicators, bigger banks might be willing to lend.. once the economy turns sour, the reluctancy of lending could cause this bank to go under.
9:00am
GDP at -0.7% MUCH better than expected, ADP report showed losses of jobs that were worse than expected. As the GDP report came out, we had a nice boost in futures, and then we came back down. I expected a GDP that was at/slightly better than consensus but didn’t think it would be that good because the depletion of inventories should have pushed GDP down a bit. Apparenlty not.. haha.
SPX Resistances to break:
1065 is the boost break (if this breaks we might get a shot up to the next resistance)
1068 (daily resistance/monthly 20 SMA)
1075 (triple top potential)
1090 (our final possible target for this rally)
SPX Supports:
1059 support for H&S on the 10 minute neckline
1053
1035-1040 range (a break of this would make me bearish)
Today is the last day of the quarter and month, any close below 1040 is going to be interpreted very very bearish, any close above 1075 would leave room for a continuation in the rally next month.
Today we will see the revision number for GDP. Even though the economist consensus is between -1% to -1.5% (at -1.2%) i think that might be too bearish. We revised it down from -0.8% last time. And most importantly the reason why it would be in that -1% to -1.5% is because deplition of inventories. I think the GDP results could come in around the consensus but the inventories depliting will be a good sign for the economy. I’m really unsure how the market will react to such news.
We also have an ADP report today, and jobless claims for september tomorrow.
we are still on the move up to 1075 again….maybe we reach target tomorrow at the start.
a little above short term trend line and above the 50ma.
bears need to be careful.
i’m going to stop out soon of my puts
long term green trend line is holding.
fib here holding.
bears need to keep it down. almost hit my stop.
if 1054 breaks, we could see 1031.9 area. bottom of channel. also a fib.
Hi woo. I hope u shorted over the Jewish Holidays.
Do u like RINO as a china payoff????????
Follow the trend into the close
Here we go down 2:00 sell just like the last 4 out of 5 days.
Has anyone see JPM H&S on 60 min? neck line is 43.45?
JPM new low today
I don’t see a H&S on 60 min, I see a potential break of a 7-month long rising wedge (juicy).
I said I was going to stay out for a bit but I just couldn’t do it. Easing into SCO now with 500 shares @ 16.70.
Same as you, I couldn’t stop myself from pulling the trigger. Re-enter @16.71. GL!
No No No
Do not do this to me morris
GLTA
Wow really?
1054.33, let’s see if this is significant on the 60 minute chart.
possible retrace to 1058 area.
guess it doesn’t feel like it.
other areas to watch:
1047.84
1043.16
1034.66
1031.99
the 1031.99 is also the bottom of a channel. Could form a 3 wave down to that area.
my puts are doing rather nicely from 1061. debating where to set my stops.
Very nice day Woo. Came into it short, trailed stopped my puts out very close to lows for very nice profits. Trailed bought puts back around 106 spy (the spike got me or I would have got a better price) and will ride these bad boys down again. 1035 es needs to be tested during trading hours, not just a/h if bulls want their push up. Trail stop in at B/E, will move up the closer we get to the target area.
So what do you think, quarter opex pin at 1050 spx
actually that estimate is very possible. if we see a bottom channel hit and 3 wave finish to 1030s, we could see a bounce and support there, and 1050 could easily come up. not exactly sure how this timeline is going to work out though. opex week comes quickly this time around. only 12 trading days in october.
this sucker could backtest to the 1054 area. i don’t want to see a huge 1054 break, it could easily bring up the avg on the 60 minute and leave the mark above there and take off short term. my stop will be around 1055 i think.
A W V might be playing out on AAPL
100 pts difference swing, perhaps vix is a better hedge.
ya nuts
Shady;
You may be right ! but lets see we have 40 min to go still
What a fakeout to the upside to trap the last lost sheep. Now we close down 322 points.
Woo – what are you thinking of buying here …. calls / puts into tomorrow ?
u don’t want to see a strong 1054.3 break to the north. you want to see it dip south from that area.
a quick rise is deadly here for bears. my stops are sitting at mid to high 1055s. lock in my profits and wait if that area happens.
Woo I am not sure but I see a Symettric triangle playing out on the 60 minute spy. This thing could just as easily turn back up and breakout in the next couple of days.
totally agree. that’s why my stops were set to 1055 area.
if 1054.3 breaks on the 60 minute, it’s bad news.
i’m fine with locking in profits there, and fine with consolidation here. it could easily break into new highs, but there’s a good chance of a solid drop to 1031.9 to the bottom of the channel as well. i’ll be playing each trade by the day, i’m not bull or bear.
right now we’re leaning south and consolidating a bit below 1054.
There you go!!
Did you get stopped out?
nope. i got out at 1054.3 area because i didn’t like the 60 minute chart for the bears.
wow qqqq’s only down .01??
Keep JPM below $43.60 and it’ll be second member to join my list (first member was KFT).
How are you playing this Morris ?
How are you playing JPM Fritz ….
I’m leaving for the day. Enjoy the close!
sure epecially after today
Can anyone confirm if there were data leaks prior to the PMI (and perhaps the jobless claims due to be released for tomorrow)?
no but cnbc said they had leaks today,thats why the futes went down from 56-34
Rendering tomorrow’s pre-market economic data a non-event…
The chicago PMI is released 3 mins early to those who subscribe to the service.
From Pisani at CNBC . . .
Was the Chicago PMI leaked? It depends on what you mean by “leaked.” Several traders furiously demanded to know why the markets had dropped several minutes before the Chicago PMI came out at 9:45. Many insisted that the information had been leaked.
Go to the Web site of Kingsbury International, the organization that compiles the Chicago PMI and you will see this blurb: “Your subscription gives you access to this market-moving data 3 minutes before public release in addition to funding the business survey.”
So for $200 a month you can get access to the info at 9:42 AM instead of 9:45 AM. Coincidentally, this was almost exactly the time the markets began dropping.
Mystery solved.
my stop hasnt hit yet.
want to see this dip lower and get back below 1054.3, consolidation above this is bad for bears.
need some sharp moves south to push the 60 minute back down.
wow…missed my stop by 1 cent…
Lower highs and higher lows today and since Last week. Still anybodys game. My only concern is I dont feel market is panicking. had a feel in the moring but that lasted only 20 minutes and after that looks like consolidation.
got out. don’t liek this market consolidation above 1054.3
if it drops i’ll get back in later. it needed one last drop to hit the line and make a mark there on 60 minute.
doesn’t need to touch much more. good luck!
Woo – so is this bullish – can we enter calls here ?
1054 was a great call position, but since i was selling my puts, i didn’t have a chance to think strongly about trying to get a good call position.
i would say to wait a bit, because we’re around the retrace of the drop, and a further drop could be in order.
and on my 60 minute chart, there is no longer a mark at 1054.3 because of this quick upward movement. so we may need to touch that 1054.3 area at least one more time and consolidate around there. it’s really 50/50 north to south for short term.
(laughing)
Please, please come back and post tomorrow. Please don’t ever go away. I’m going to love hearing what you have to say all next month. You brighten my day.
I am HIGHLY bearish going into tomorrow. We may see some lift in the morning if personal income/spending or jobs are good, but I think the market is going to get slammed at 10AM when we get an ISM that is below 50.
but if tomorrow is up …what should the bears do?
short covering again and again !!!!
You have to realize that the bulls are thinking that we are coming out of this thing… if you get contraction in manufacturing tomorrow, for the whole nation now not just midwest, that is going to really hurt the green shoots theory.
Don’t get too bearish yet, so far only one of the DOW 30 stocks has a confirmed uptrend break (will look for JPM confirmation tomorrow). The DOW has been much more accurate in terms of forecasting market moves, and the probability of an up day tomorrow is a little higher than a down day.
I like the technical stuff man, and I follow it certainly, but the fundamental stuff is important in contrast to what some folks around here seem to think. I have alot of data points now that point to a break in the recovery.
Aug new/existing home sales < July existing/new home sales
Aug durable goods orders < July durable goods orders
Chicago PMI Sept < Chicago PMI Aug, significantly in this case
China HSBC PMI Sept < China HSBC PMI Aug (slightly in this case, but we want to see increases)
Korea Aug exports < Korea July exports
Japan PMI growth Sept = Japan PMI growth Aug 0 2nd derivative increase
ADP Sept 245 < 200 expecation
Taken alone any one of these datapoints could be ignored. Together they paint a compelling picture for me. If ISM is under 50 tomorrow the markets are going to get hurt.
Sold 10,000 shares on UCO at $11.31 (bought at $9.85). Looking for another entry to scalp up to $11.96, gap fill. $10.60 looking good at this point, will see.
several blocks–not telling any on this site to buy at 10.6, just looking at 15 min. chart.
Do you think we open higher or lower tomorrow?
Penske pulls out of Saturn deal, GM to shutter Saturn… can anyone say layoffs?
Sold TZA at EOD at 12.15 bought at 11.73 2000 shares .42c/Share = 840US$ + 300+ from my small BGU play I have a good days work to go and get drunk. I have been on a roll lately. I am 100% cash going into tomorrow. The action should be late morning. Will try to post my thoughts as usual. I called the bottom and top of the day very accurately today. Hope it lasts.
Nice job!
I have a question for you guys. How should I use different time fram charts? Someone suggested me here that I should be using 5MIn, 15Min and 60 Min and Daily charts. Now I was wondering how should I use them and which one has the highest preference? For day trading based on which one I should buy and sell. Thanks
Follow the 10min and watch for crosses of the 4dma through the 20dma. Those are buy/sell signals. Use the 1 min for exectution of trade with the level 2 screen up.
Use the 3min for see short term divergence trends.
Listen to all points……….Then follow your own judgement……and be responsible for your actions !