Follow Idan on Twitter: korenidan87
12:36pm
I think if UNG breaks the 12$ resistance, it may be forming a bottom. There’s a chance that UNG will outperform the market even during a pull back, due to it’s oversold nature. Some of you might want to be more conservative and go long only after the 20 SMA weekly at 12.80 is broken to the upside:
12:21pm
Small potential inverse H&S on the 10 minute with a neckline of 106.26 (20+50 SMA necktie), target of 106.60. AND bigger H&S with a descending neckline around 105.70 and a target of 104.40 ish.
12:16pm
One other stock that I’m looking at shorting soon is Starbucks (SBUX).
12:11pm
One position that the hedge fund took short a week ago was LNCR, today the 2nd half of the short position was added, since it looks like this stock could fall off a cliff (as buyers aren’t stepping in). Remember we believe that these stocks will under perform the market over the 1-4 week time span, and if you want to hedge yourself, you should short and go long SPY. I bought october right out of the money puts on this one. Even though technically our target was met already, I think there is more downside to this name.
11:50am
Well all it took was one bad number from consumer confidence to set the tone down again, in order for the market to really do damage today it has to fall below 105.40 on the SPY. I really like the fact that AAPL and AMZN are down more than the market… GYMB with some weakness as well. The only outlier today is WYNN and so I’ll be adding some shorts on this one.
9:50am
Nice reversal candle on the 10 minute SPX or SPY… right at the 1067 resistance. Consumer confidence will be key…
SPX 60 minute:
Volume will be stronger these next 4 days. Bears, need to push market down below 1040 before you get bearish. Now stay neutral/bullish. Some charts forming H&S formations such as AAPL 60 minute.
The next two days are going to be important to see whether we close the month as a DOJI candle (under 1067) or as a bullish continuation candle up next to the highs. We have consumer confidence today at 10 am, and a lot of different less important economic data. Tomorrow however we have GDP, which will be a market mover. If we close the month above 1067-1068 levels, there will be no reason for the market to sell off 10-15% next month. If we close under 1067-1068, we would have a nice DOJI candle for a potential reversal.
The dollar held and bonds rallied yesterday despite the massive rally in the markets, which is somewhat bearish BUT like I said, the 1035-1040 level has to break before i become bearish, now the bulls have a reason to rally this market back up.
SPY hourly chart and SPX Daily chart……My take on the situation
SPY posted only for fibs from last high to low and what we got out of it Monday
SPX Daily: http://i399.photobucket.com/albums/pp80/cnest/92809.gif
SPY Hourly: http://i399.photobucket.com/albums/pp80/cnest/Hourly.gif
Hope they are big enough, and I am sure Idan will have his up if not too busy….
P.S. The VIX pull back was only near the 38.2% ( I see room for lower on the VIX) vs the SPY bounce of 61.8%
Gold Bug and UUP Daily Charts
http://i399.photobucket.com/albums/pp80/cnest/HUI.gif
http://i399.photobucket.com/albums/pp80/cnest/UUPDaily.gif
Downtrend channel has been working yesterday.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p89643231254&a=178830232&listNum=1
The VIX pull back only near the 38.2% vs the SPY bounce of 61.8% maybe is a negative divergence. Let see…
do you think they will let this market drop going into holiday season after all the work and $$ they put into it to convince the consumer everything is a.o.k.?
If JPM had two consecutive closes below $44.15 it will get me bearish on this stock, and I would finally bet against it.
JPM is the first of the four financial stock in the DOW 30 to touch the uptrend line (of the entire rally) last week and bounced off it yesterday. If it breaks, AXP, TRV, and BAC should follow.
KFT was the first of the DOW 30 to break, and it took place on September 8.
JPM is forming a beautiful H&S on 60 min chart over past 2-3 weeks. Rt shoulder may be ready by friday.
Same with AXP, and the volume criteria is met as well.
GS looks like it will swing back to try testing the 188 mark again where I’ll be ready with the anchor….
Unless it closes below 183.31 today.
idmcq has had 100% moves three times this stock is fun
09/29/2009 Filed under: Market Stats — daytrend @ 8:46 am
Market Stats at 9:45 am ET http://daytrend.wordpress.com/category/market-stats/ $$
by daytrend on 20090929.
CAUTION: Some browsers cache and sometimes display stale data. Refresh the browser if the time on the top line of this post is not current.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY’S RANGE
36.8% of stocks are above yesterday’s high.
85.0% are above yesterday’s midpoint. (15.0% are below.)
61.7% are inside yesterday’s range.
1.5% are below yesterday’s low.
EVIDENCE OF INTRADAY TREND
59.0% of stocks are above today’s open and yesterday’s close.
22.4% are below both.
COMPARED TO TODAY’S RANGE
11.3% of stocks are in the top 10% of today’s range.
28.2% are in the top 20%.
71.0% are in the top half. (29.0% are in bottom half.)
11.0% are in the bottom 20%.
6.2% are in the bottom 10%.
GAIN
72.4% of stocks are above breakeven. (27.6% are below b/e.)
0.7% are up 4.5% or more. 0.2% are down 4.5% or more.
1.5% are up 3.5% or more. 0.3% are down 3.5% or more.
71.0% are between +1% and -1%.
2-DAY RSI
7.2%….>=90. 26.4%…>=80. 82.0%…>=50. 2.2%…<20. 0.8%…<10.
LAST PRICE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAILY HIGHS AND LOWS
36.8% above previous 1 highs, 1.5% below previous 1 lows
33.6% above previous 2 highs, 0.8% below previous 2 lows
17.2% above previous 3 highs, 0.7% below previous 3 lows
7.2% above previous 4 highs, 0.7% below previous 4 lows
5.8% above previous 5 highs, 0.6% below previous 5 lows
5.8% above previous 6 highs, 0.5% below previous 6 lows
4.3% above previous 10 highs, 0.2% below previous 10 lows
NEW HIGHS/LOWS USING TODAY’S HIGH/LOW
21d: 5.0% new highs, 0.2% new lows
42d: 4.3% new highs, 0.1% new lows
63d: 4.2% new highs, 0.0% new lows
126d: 4.0% new highs, 0.0% new lows
COMPARED TO SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES
2-day: 71.0% above, 29.0% below
3-day: 91.6% above, 8.4% below
4-day: 90.1% above, 9.9% below
5-day: 80.2% above, 19.8% below
8-day: 56.5% above, 43.5% below
10-day: 50.3% above, 49.7% below
20-day: 75.6% above, 24.4% below
50-day: 83.4% above, 16.6% below
NOTES:
Only liquid stocks are considered, now 865.
If you have ideas to improve these stats, contact me on twitter (@daytrend) or daytrend @ gmail . com (no spaces) Thanks.
Each Saturday I purge the oldest Market Stats posts from the blog, leaving only those from the previous week. All of the data is saved automatically in a spreadsheet, however.
Taken from the above mentioned website…
GOOD stats. HOw did you get this data? is it reliable?
be careful here
Hard to say what the RIFIN will do today as it’s hitting the 800 mark. Seems there is only sup on this chart and rarely res…….however backing off the 800 right now prob to take another run at it later….
UUP spiking up
From post above about JPM and getting bearish…..if it gets tied to the Fed Audit…..look out.
Seems CC came in good? Must of sold a ton of KFC?
Wow that last move caught a few people with their pants down……
Someone will buy it back up over the 20ma in the next few mins…..
To front-run or not to front-run JPM uptrend break…?
remember last yr on this date the market drop 750 points
Consumer confidence down – but investor/trader confidence is back up again
I picked up 4000 UCO @ 10.05 a little while ago. I now have 8000 shares at an average of 10.40. Good luck to all today!
That’s a big position. You must be pretty confident.
or pretty crazy!
I’m sure you’ll do great…Go Morris, Go!
ppick up uco
Now that was some crazy moves right there. Slam it up and take out bear stops right over 1064 and then slam it down and take out bull stops.
Some nice bear flags laying around….last day in the sky for a few months. Enjoy your day and paint the walls red while I’m gone!!
Woo,
where are you? and what are your thoughts…
Let’s remember that Case-Schiller is lagged by 2 months, the report was for July. We already knew that home sales for July were great. Home sales for Aug were not stellar and declined from July. It is well likely that Case-Schiller for Aug will decline. Aug does not seem to be the banner month that was July.
Idan, AMZN was intiated at Standpoint research with a sell and target under $75.00.
That happens often with my shorts.. cuz they are so overbought.
Nice call… you really won with STEC.
well AMZN and WYNN and LVS are on my list as well to do something similar to STEC.. maybe not as fast though.
WYNN/LVS… if they dropped that much it could be easily swallowed by the market, but for a drop of that magnitude in AMZN, I think you would have to see a good hit in the NDX too. That being said, I don’t think it is an outlandish thing to think… since that trip to 991 in beginning of Sept, the Q’s have really moved to the upside, but seem a little weary since the RIMM news. Q’s underperforming SPY today.
I hate it when my trades that I use as insurance gets stopped out on a flare.
Idan, what are the things you look at to determine if a stock is overbought?
There are various indicators that we look at… MACD, Stochastics, RSI, fibonnaci’s, Bullinger bands and the deviations from it’s sector.
hey Idan
would you say that UNG is a buy if it pass 12 – 12,1 $ ????
In my book it is, if it can hold it on a daily.
I have a decending line on my chart from the 3 previus top on the 60min. with resistenc at 12,15 give an take, i will see that break first….
UNG falling under the 12 $ mark after hitting the resistence line.
Wynn is pushing higher and higher.. holding some shorts.. tempted to cover
75.60 is the 38.2% retrace.. we haven’t hit it yet.. we might want to get there.
Idan – on SBUX – what enty point are you looking for ?
This is a 2-4 weeks trade… so the entry right now doesn’t matter too much as long as it’s above the 20.25 mark..
we might get one last push higher to the upper bulliger band in the low 21s.
My resistance on SBUX is at 21 …
Fritz,
Obviously based on market action today both of your bullish and bearish cases still hold. Just wanted to know if from timing-wise you may be refining your analysis.
No.
Bought HND.TO @4.94. Stop loss @4.85.
what is the US equivalent ultrashort?
sco/dto or?
Sorry, I don’t know.
ultrashort oil is SCO (Proshares ETF) or DTO (Powershares ETN)
ultralong oil is UCO (Proshares ETF) or DXO (Powershares ETN)
oops, you are interested in natural gas, not oil.
Sold all HND.TO @5.13.
EW analysis from this morning
http://www.dcradio700.com/schedule.html
He is putting me to sleep
anyone with any ideas of banks to go bankrupt
Limited to small regionals and doesn’t seem to phase the XLF. FDIC just has to ask Ben to keep the printers running.
Idan, what’s your target on LNCR?
Well LNCR fell about 7% from the time we shorted it.. we bought puts… we expect it to potentially see 28$.
Anyone care to speculate on GDP tomorrow?
I honestly don’t think GDP, the 3rd revision of the Q2 number, will be that important. I’d place more weight on ADP and Chicago PMI.
Do you know the approximate date the 3rd quarter GDP number comes out ?
Don’t know about that con. sen. came in couple point lower a market dropped 70 points in 5 minutes and has not brecovered since
tomorrow
Tomorrow is the revised 2nd quarter number. The 2rd quarter is not over yet.
3rd qtr not over yet
Bitch slap me good it is second quarter,I believe the 2nd quarter will be up on a slight rebound on light inventories.3rd quarter i think will tank
Anyone follows/invests in FAZ?
Do you think it will ever see 50-60 again? TIA
Yes if RIFIn goes below 600 ( and S&P around 800-830)
And S&P projection of around 800 has been made by EW specialists posting on this board.
it’s funny to see the words “FAZ” and “invest” in the same sentence
trade,trade!!! Market starting to lose its upward trend we will finish down 4 out of 5 days
Thank you all for your opinions…..
I can’t beleive I ruined such a good year trading by holding FAZ.
If it wasnt for my other positions i would have been BK right now…
I need to be more assertive as far as implementing stoplosses like you guys but it seems so hard …
I get really emotional when i have to take a loss—– childish and stupid…
Hold it if you can until Nov end!! It is in 19-20 area right now.
Hi Shar,
You say that FAZ would require S&P 800-830 to get it back up to $50/$60. That is only a 21% correction, but the FAZ would almost triple to that range. How does FAZ move like that? I am novice and been following this site to try and learn the market from a different perspective. My first post, so thank you.
Cheers!
-Mo
Mo,
I was just trolling late and noticed Shar didn’t respond. FAZ is the devil’s child. it is one of a series of Direxion ETF’s that try to replicate 3x the INVERSE of the RIFIN index. Now, a particular sector, like financials, can move much more than a larger index. So, if RIFIN could get back down to the 600 range, yeah, the price of FAZ could maybe rise that high. The problem with these leveraged ETF’s is that they are extremely volatile and a choppy market eats up the returns. if you are a novice, you should stay away. If you want short financials without a margin account and without leverage, check out SEF.
never ever average down on a falling equity .There is aton of bears out there that lost there ass on FAZ.After that reverse split should of heard the cheering,that should have been the 1st warning
Bought FAS at $40 on reverse split!
oh oh market close is ugly cant hold 1060 or 9750 down day tomorrow and we may have major trend change
FRITZ-still looks for 10k by end of week.
Both scenarios are still in play. Based on today’s price action, it may be a quick touch and then goodbye, or how about 9999.98
?
Please note: I am not planning to go more than 100% short on October 2nd, October 5th is NOT the start date of the major decline.
Fritz:
What is your estimate of the start date of the decline ?
Thanks
It’s still within a date range, so I’d rather not post it yet and wrongly get people excited and screwed over. Like I said yesterday, as soon as I start to go on margin, I will let everyone know, and I will make sure to allow at least a couple of hours so you can still enter your trades if you choose to follow.
I am a high risk player when it comes to front-running the major declines, so this style is not for everyone. For example, I went full short and maxed out my margin on February 6 2009, and had to sit through one day of margin call. So if you can’t sit through this kind of pain it’s better to sit on 50% cash.
Fritz:
Understood. As I said previously, I appreciate your comments on this blog.
Played the intraday fibs all day and they worked out great. Holding WYNN n KFT short front month contracts, but am concerned a little bit with the consolidation over the last couple of days. 15 minute SPY H & S played out decent end of day and probably could have held it again short overnight, but I like to keep ‘em green whenever I can
. Odd day with UUP and Precious Metals both being up. Sign of a change perhaps. UUP held its gap fill support decent, but that means nothing until tomorrow.
I still think a bull trap will be set for those hoping to fill the gap from last October. Trade carefully. This could be the month mutual funds get out with profits. Tomorrow will let us know (although that has been said by a lot of others for a long time now ……LOL)
If JPM closes in the red tomorrow, and again on Thursday breaking below that $44.43 (yeah, it’s a fast rising trend line from March) level, Friday could be a (failed) back test attempt.
As soon as JPM confirms its long term uptrend break, I will be looking more aggressively shorting stocks that will soon follow.
I have a question for you guys. My plan is to do one or two quick trade each day and never hold my position over night or even throughout out each day. What indicatore and what time fram I should be looking at on my chart and how I should use them to trade ETFs like FAs/FAZ. I would appreciate if you give me some important tips or a source that I can teach how to perform my plan. Thanks
Food for thought, if you do not know how to daytrade, why start off with the most volatile etf`s out there?
As for how to trade.. since you`ll be doing discretionary trading, your going to have stop losses set in your mind…..
you shuold have a good trading platform, preferably a level 2 quote
chart of the spy futures..
have pivot points + s/r lines, oscilators + volume indicators…
The market is way too choppy to try to capitalize on an inverse ETF. Choose a stock you know, preferably a high beta stock..GOOG, CME, ICE, FSLR, AAPL, FCX or the likes. I would first suggest a paper trade on 3 or 4 time frames; 5 minute, 10 or 15 minute, hourly and perhaps a daily. Try to do a fib or as Zee suggested find your support and resistance. Keep the trade very simple and use full stochastics 14,3,3 with an 8 period ema and a 21 period ema. Look for crosses above the 20 on your stochastics and an 8 cross of the 21 on your ema’s. A 5 minute chart along with a 1 minute tick of the ES will help you get in and out faster with scalps. Always wait for confirmation of your ema cross, the first typically fails, and you don’t want to be in the wrong direction. Rule of thumb, if short get out on the first bottoming tail, if long on the first topping tail. I like to use trendlines for confirmation of direction. Support, resistance, and fibs are key to scalps. But, most important are knowing and executing your entries and exits. Don’t let emotion or greed interfere with why you made the trade. Knowing when to get in and when you want to get out are the keys to success. Never, and I mean never, add to a losing position out of hope. Pay the piper and learn from the mistakes (We all make them, it’s being able to minimize them that makes you successful). Keep it simple, the more tools you try to use, the messier things can get. Find what you need to make it work for you, and stick to it. Learn to walk before you run…blah blah blah…..If a trade goes against you, GET OUT, there is always another trade. Think of the commission like you would a tuition. You will graduate sooner, rather than later.
P.S. If you are going to use an inverse you BETTER know the sector stocks that are affiliated with it. You should also let the others know if you are stock slinger, or an options trader. With options, being directionally correct is key. Personally, I prefer options.
OxTrader > Thanks a lot, That is what I was looking for. Of course I am going to start with papaer money then trading with real money.
Just a sense of direction from me. You have to stay within your means at all times. What I know is that speculation on the part of another won’t help you accomplish your goals. We all set them for ourselves. There is no expert, you have to expect the unexpected
In general, if you have a daytime job, don’t daytrade. It’s a distraction that will affect your job. But if you have the time and resource, options are the way to go. Paper trade til you get the hang of it, plan your entries and exits well. watch Options Actions for ideas. Consider using spreads, straddles, iron condors, and other hedging methods to limit losses.
if you really want to learn to daytrade, eminiaddict is the only place I’ve seen on the internet in 15 years of a trader who actually knows what the hell they are doing. Oh sure there are great sites that are good with longer term trading,,such as here. I am talking specifically daytradeing 3-5 trades a day.
You sign up there you can get 7 days free. So watch and learn from his ‘webinars/videos’. There are about 5 -90 minute ones you really need to learn. There are more tho.
Then it is a mere $30 a month after 7 days free. I would have gladly paid $5000 for what I’ve learned there. I’ve never seen another who is this good. He does a running commentary in the ‘trading room’. Sign up,,,and yes you can listen all day with the free trial, too. Sign up, choose a name, clik on ‘trading room and chat’, then (Jabbify and you can type/chat ?’s) and then click the ‘Webinar’ to get into the daily commentary. He starts talking 15 min before market opens. Does a free daily video that re-hashes the previous day and it is usually up a couple hrs. before market opens. Free, to anyone. No need to sign up. A 10 min video every day that can show all you stocktock’ers you are clueless…lol.
He is a great person, too. A really nice guy. But most importantly, he knows how to trade. He trades the emini,,,tho it all works the same. One can correctly learn ‘how to use fibs’ there, among other things. IF you have the basics of chart pattern recognition, etc, etc down-pat, then you can learn. IF you don’t know the basics,,,don’t bother until you do.
Notice I said ‘he’s the only one’ who knows how to trade?? I mean it.
Uner, Morris, Woo, Cyan, Al, Val,,,et al you old farts on here,,,ya better check it out. You can thank me later. I guarantee you most of you guys here on stocktock, you are clueless imo, when it comes to really knowing ‘how to daytrade’,,,per se. Not saying you don’t know how to longer term trade. No offense. It is different than you think is all I”m saying.
I’ve been around here a long time; a year now. You know I don’t lie. He trades the trend, until the trend ends. WTF ever direction the current trend IS. No EW or predictions, tho a little bit of econ stuff.
Go watch the free daily video in the morning an hour before market opens, and see how you REALLY are supposed to use the fibs, and learn how there are actual TARGETS of every move. Every one.
You will have your ideas changed about daytrading, once you visit and watch ONE daily video. Later, Ed
Kinda stupid to call out those who make the calls? I was actually expecting some “Pink Floyd ….Another one bites the dust” while I read this. Brag ‘em up all you want, show US the next move….(I love to fade)
0) this is one of the very very few sites I check every day
1 ) the market goes up – doesn’t follow what you say
2 ) you need to understand and recognize that us gov will do every thing to keep this maket up so long there is fear. I realized this after being a bear for a longtime. there could be dips ..dips folowed by monstrous rallies – and TA had to follow it rather than TA folowing the market.
Hence, most bears are loners in search of a herd. Whereas, most bulls belong to a herd, not having to be alone. A lesson learned by yours truly who was 2 months late to this bear market rally. One reason bears need to hibernate is my guess.
Take a few months to rest, and use the rest of the time to your best 
Must be tough to be so naive with your money. Eventually you will lose it all because you think there is some great conspiracy….but when in fact your are just playing in a pool with sharks. You will be less rich next month.
90% of all stocktock viewers are down for the year, while other are up nicely. Make a promise to yourself, if you are up within the next month based on smarts not luck, play on. Otherwise, get the hell out and don’t follow advice from people you don’t know.
belive me – there are people who want to take our money whether bull or bear. but keep in mind the additional force to keep this market up while the gyrations look normal to the eye.
I try hard to keep up with just about every post in here on a daily basis. I am finding out from all of this that there is some fear / indecision amongst the strongest of the bulls. If you read or pay attention to the bears side it’s understandable. Nobody knows what the market is about to do? Understandable, yes? So, why waste what you work so hard to earn when you don’t know? This trading stuff isn’t exactly rocket science, if you don’t know. do nothing. Protect yourself and just wait to do you what you know is right for you and yours. Everybody wants to be right on every time frame. Don’t do it! Sit and wait until it comes to you. This isn’t the early 20th century, you are in the 21st. Pay attention, and work for what you were born to do.
P.S. I have had a few but try to remember why I am an American. Fight for who YOU are, not who you think you should be.