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9:56pm (sunday)
Futures hitting new short term lows… we are only 3-4 points away from the SPX equivalent of 1035.
8:40pm (sunday)
SPX 10 minute
7:03pm (sunday)
Yom Kippur Holiday will mean low volume in the markets tomorrow, as the majority of wall street traders/investors are jewish haha.
6:30pm (sunday)
Lastly I wanted to show you that the SPX 60 minute has the levels of 1060 as very very strong resistance, that if the bulls can overcome it, will send us to the 1067-1068 level. On the other hand 1040 is strong support, that if overcome will send us to 1035 (50% retrace), if broken, sends us down to 1014.. and lower and lower. Notice how supports after 1035 tend to be further spread apart.
6:24pm (sunday)
Here’s the SPX daily. Like I’ve said over the last week, in order for October to be bearish as we form at least a DOJI candle on the monthly chart, the bears must hold below 1067-1068, and whatever happened between then and Wednesday didn’t matter. Some of you said, it was impossible, but here we are, sitting below it. That said, as you can see there are two prevalent wedge formations, and right now we’re sitting on the support of one of them.. 1040 is going to be tough to break, and i do expect some push higher unless bad news comes out. A break under 1035, would be very bearish into October.
I got this from woo… you guys can see the resemblance of the last 2 years Vs 1929.
This market looks like will drop like a rock. I am taking a small TZA position of 1000 shares@11.50.
Soft landing will be acceptable.
i’m adding TZA aswell. market looks very toppy
“market looks very toppy”
I think that’s been the phrase used here since March.
Yes, it has. But seriously, exact 61.8 retrace and then nothing? Forget the conspiracy theories (if you so desire), I think we can all agree the HFT/momentum traders are setting up for a big fall here.
High frequency traders do not hold positions overnight… so I’m not sure how they are the losers in this situation.
If you read carefully, I didn’t assign overnight ownership to anybody. I didn’t say HFT were the losers. I said they are setting up for a big fall here. The bagholders, whoever they may be, will be the losers. Fundamentals hardly support S&P 800, yet we are at 1050. Not that I was around in ’87, but I get the sense that a big dislocation is coming.
Honestly, I doubt it since the Fed/PPT won’t allow such a thing. There is too much frothy money floating around.
BGZ @ 21.1 for a scalp. Undecided whether I will hold this overnight or not.
In hindsight, today’s rally was expected. S&P hit the lower end of the channel and bounced from there. Actually, the reversal started on Friday.
The thing that concerns me about this rally is low volume !! The last few hours, S&P has also been making lower highs.
The whole “rally” from March has been on low volume. Today is Yom Kippur. Short covering, Karma, whatever you want to call it. Being short is the quickest way to lose the most money.
I think a few money managers stepped in and bought the dips from Friday while they could.
I’m personally positioning myself for a delta neutral position for tomorrow. Lots of economic reports coming out.
I would not hold any unhedged longs into tomorrow.
I would not hold any unhedged shorts into tomorrow, unless it is less than 5% of our portfolio.
Bullish scenario still in play, DOW 9650 was never touched. Bearish scenario still in play, DOW 9825 was never breached.
ditto looking for a break of 1165-1168
Near end of day I moved to nearly delta neutral. My delta is -0.4% of my entire portolio, but my theta is also about the same amount. So net-net, I should be able to stay neutral until after the consumer confidence numbers tomorrow at 9am when I can make a trade.
This prevents any damage from gaps at the open (whether its a gap up or a gap down).
Nice charts and well done Idan. I bought quite a bit on Friday looking to test at least the 1061 area today or tomorrow (happened today) where I covered half of my positions, then took the rest at or near the top. Immediately went to short for 1057-1058 I can see happening now tomorrow. I didn’t necessarily like the consolidation as high as it was today, but notice the UUP rounding bottom (Many of my charts are looking like Inverse H&S on UUP) and decided to hold. For end of quarter window dressing, the volume seemed pretty light. XLF also found 61.8 near end of day. I hope some of the others took advantage of a few of the metals and miners on the dip today from the mention on Friday.
Keep up the good work StockTock !!
Ox
I covered my shorts at about 1047 last week..
I reloaded them today [however, the way they are looking like today.. I am NOT pleased with my position]…
The market is acting really ***. Is it making a bottom, or is it making an inversion (which happens when it should be bottoming but puts in a top instead..)..
Grr.. the uncertainty is killing me..
Sorry guys, but if we truly are topping [as opposed to my previous views of us BOTTOMING by early october...] the shorts won’t be rewarded until after the first week of October when we’ve topped.