1:14pm
The VIX has bottomed for the first time on the weekly, this looks very promising for the bears! You want to see it break the 27-28 level though (20 SMA weekly)
1:00pm
Market has been forming a bear flag for about an hour now… the likelihood is that after breaking the 1044 level, we will see 1035. That’s where i’ll become a cautious bear.
10:03am
The retracements of the sell off remain at: 23.6 = 105.38, 38.2 = 105.88, 50 = 106.29 for the SPY…
9:59am
I got stopped out of AAPL at 183.50.. (about 1% gain)… We are seeing home sales… beat expectations… but market is selling off on GOOD NEWS.
9:06am
Poor Durable goods number shoves futures into negative territory. If we open below the 1044-1045 level… the next very very strong level to watch is 1036 (50% retrace) + prior resistance.
SPX 60 minute:
Ahmadinejad to respond to Obama’s threat within the hour. May be a market mover!
Ahmedinejad’s slap at O’B may be the mm. A’jad seems to be baiting O’B to see what backbone exists.
link ?
The http://carlfutia.blogspot.com blog has been calling for a drop to 1035 for several days now and then a rise up to 1020. He has a strong bullish bias but he’s been correct a lot in his daily calls during this rally.
meant to say a rise to 1120
FWIW, Carl’s been right since March 2009 and was from May 2008 to Feb 2009. The 1035 call is one of the few times when both Idan and Carl agree on a potential reversal.
I meant to say:
…and was wrong on market directions from May 2008 to Feb 2009.
morris, how come you don’t use stops….that is just not sound based on any profitable trader. and yes, you have been so far, but trust me, not using stops will end your trading career someday. GL holding RImm and UCO.
I do use stops in some trades and not in others. Everyone has different ways of trading and varying levels of risk they are willing to take. I trade more or less aggressively depending on how my account is doing overall for the week/month/year. My basic trading target is 1k per week. If I exceed that, I often trade more aggressively since I then have more room for error. At this point, I am so far past my 1k a week target for the year that I can afford to be much more aggressive with my trades without any real fear of missing my bigger picture target for my account.
I didn’t close my QID position (4000 shares @ an average of 25.00) because I absolutely believe it will be profitable at some point in the near future and I don’t need the funds for anything else right now. As for UCO, oil is very volatile and it can turn on a dime. I think it will turn my way but I could end up being wrong. If I do end up with a loss on that trade, it will be the first in quite a number of VERY successful trades in the UCO/SCO pair.
The RIMM position that I took today is only about 5% of my portfolio. We’ll see how it goes.
For example, if I closed all three open trades right now (QID, UCO, and RIMM), I would lose $9168.00. However, on trades that were initiated and subsequently closed since August 1, I have a profit of $27590.00. This does not even include profits on trades that were closed in early to mid-August that were initiated before August 1. So, I would still be up $18422.00 in about 7 weeks which is WAY above the target for my account.
The break of the long term support line on USO suggests more downside ahead. I am seeing the target of $59 in the near future. This morning the bounce of oil was very weak ; it has met with tremendous selling pressure. Why not sell half of your position or hedge with SCO? Just my 2 cents.
Best of luck to you!
Thanks for the advice. I believe that there could be more downside ahead for oil but I don’t believe that it has anything at all to do with lines drawn on a graph. I have 4000 shares of QID so if nothing else, the UCO can serve as a hedge for that position (which is my largest by far). Cheers!
Good luck! My friend.
Thanks man! We made a lot of money over the past few weeks in the UCO/SCO game so all is well!
Yes, I am sure we can make more money on SCO/UCO trades in the future.
Thanks again for your guidance!
GS just tested its 170.70 low and held.
Drats. 177.70 low. Not 170.
I’m long GS now. Between 177.84 and 178.
178.59 was good sup on the daily.
Careful though 20ma coming in hot! 60m bear flag with the 10ma sitting at the top of the flag.
there’s the move to try and recover spx 1043.16 on 60 minute.
Valerie….It would have been hard to call the top on this but it looks to me like 158.50 is going to be hit over the next little while. Haven’t had a chance to catch up on all the news but there is a big gap to be filled in the 165 to 163 level and if the news continues with the FED etc another gap in the 158.50 level which would start a right shoulder. As for being oversold GS just crossed the 80 mark yesterday on the SS so there’s lots of room left to the downside. I think the big money will be selling to at least 174.55ish. All this is just with a quick look….if it changes I’m sure I’ll spout it out!! Enjoy!
Side note…just took a contract with Coke as an evening celebration manager for the Olympic Torch Relay across Canada and for all you Canadians on here……this relay is going to blow your mind! Honestly Blow Your Mind! Hope to see you there! If you’ve ever been a part of any team this clip will surely bring a smile and possibly a few tears!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47KF0FhSORg forgot to paste?!?
Enjoy!
Glad to see u landed the gig. I am a veneer log broker and prices are so bad
demand so weak with china a stingy buyer (that biz is non existent.) Losses for
this industry huge in the east.
Now the chinese exporters of our raw feedstock have scaled back buying to the
point of near zero/
To me it seems that all investment is going to stocks instead of hte real world.
No one is investing in basic resources. mines are mostly shuttered and the auctions
of forestry equip is the lone biz that generates cash.
Good luck bear. Promote the stuff but don’t drink it or it’ll give u diabetes.
Congrts! Sounds like a cool job. I remember you walked away from or were laid off from the air job. My survey wk lks lean this winter – I contract w/ O&G and the lumber industries so need I say more.
Thnx for the GS info. Yeah- I saw a gap on 9/4 so that may need tested.
I went long GS around 178 for a day scalp. Ready to sell if the trade looks like it wants to turn.
Val, contact Talisman in Quebec, they are doing some shale exploration in that
basin. U r a petro engineer/geo?
everyone has the wrong opinion, the basic material and commod biz is just buying
up surplus slack and soaking up inventory. The tar sands are being scaled back
in anticip of lower energy prices.
U know the old saying, your neighbor or brother in law loses his job. . . . that’s
a recession. U lose ur job, its a depression.
I have a sneaky suspicion that markets up because all of us unemployed and under
employed trying to daytrade thru this time of job famine (sorry, my english is imperfect).
Just seeing your note. Thnx for the tip. I am a wildlife biologist- do wildlife clearance specializing in carnivore and hawk survey. Any and all leads are welcome. Thnx again.
And interesting thought about # of traders increasing as the self-employed among us scrap for work. The unemplpyment stats are way off. They do not consider the self-emplyed and under-emplyed.
1043 held on the 60 minute. let’s see how this sucker holds up.
could be a backtest of 1047.8 area again.
VWAP is 104.70.
We just jumped up and hit it. Watch volume soar now.
Short already covering? or buyers coming in?
there’s 1047.8
i would be surprised to see a drop into the 1030s area from here…200ma down there 2 good fibs.
a good area for support. also fulfills an H&S with shoulder at 1048.
but we’ll see.
That would be a break of the July/Sept trendline… significant!
Very impressive analysis
should we get long or stay short going into next week?
neutral.
Anyone shorting natural gas? Bought HND.TO @4.98.
There is a trendline that runs from the July/Sept lows up to about 1040… we bounced off of that, I say we ultimately do break it to the downside, but it isn’t going to be easy.
181 I think will be GS turn point for today. Good res there.
IF it even makes it….
End of the Quarter Window dressing might pull this up. I am not sure but the drop so far has been very controlled and I dont sense a panic in the market at all…. I would say Both Bears and Bulls need to be careful here. Indicators on the 60 minute are oversold or near oversold.
We bounced off the 20 Ema on the Daily and now look like a Doji. The volume today is lower and last 2 days but that may be due to Friday…. I am taking a small SPY long only because of the factors mentioned above. I feel they just wont tank here and because of the End of the Quarter perhaps one of the most interesting quarters ever in the market they could just make one more push above. I am bearish starting October. unless we break above previous highs before that.
Is it controlled b/c the MM’s are propping it up? Preventing a bid drop before EOQ and so we get the slow bleed?
GS 180.18 EOD….
I’m out of that trade. I don’t like the long side of the market today.
InTheMoney’s mid-day vid is out and worth looking at.
Cramer is still calling for a 3-5% correction and thinks you can’t be bullish until minimum next Tues/Wed. Santelli thinks we need an ugly close in order to get much further weakness.
Action today is neutral at best, although I really like the combination of the DOW action and the VIX action as they bold well for my projection of October 2nd being the market top. I will not hold any unhedged shorts into the weekend.
Both bullish and bearish scenarios are still intact, although the bears need to convince me by closing the DOW below 9600 today.
I’d like to see the DOW closing 14 points higher than yesterday’s close, just to keep it ambiguous for both bulls and bears.
(There is a 63% probability of a short squeeze on Monday if we close at DOW 9721).
[Abusive and disruptive comment removed by moderator. Any more will vanish without explanation, along with all replies. If you want to act like a Yahooligan, do it on Yahoo.]
Contrary to what you are saying, I am happily employed, have capital in my account (just preserving capital for now), and I do know when the next major decline will take place. Like I said to you yesterday, we will revisit this again in late November. From this point on until late November, I will not respond to your post again.
Just bought EDZ
Have a great weekend
Perhaps TBT is starting to look tasty here!
Doubt it. Yields tend to decrease in a bear market, especially when there is a “sell off”.
Before buying TBT I would like to point out it broke down below an important fib today. $44.90 really needed to be held. So buyer beware on that one Cottonman.
Thanks OxMan!
No posts after 3:09
Sideways action killed the mood perhaps, perfect!
Fritz.. Bearish scenario: DOW gaps up but stay below 9775, and drop quickly through yesterday’s low of 9666.03 on stronger volume, with VIX gradually rising WITHOUT leaving any gaps. This scenario assumes P3 has begun and would then throw my projected October 2 high out of the window but I have no issues with that either as it still doesn’t change my projected date range for the major decline that I am trying to front-run.
Andrew,
Yes everything did play out like what I laid out, but one thing that kept me from confirming it is the fact that the DOW closed above 9650 AND the VIX didn’t close near the high today, also the DOW didn’t drop quick enough (I was looking for the break of 9666.03 before noon). This could be it, but I’m not willing to count out Monday’s POMO just yet.
And it doesn’t change the timing of the major decline I am trying to front-run.
Not much of a victory for either team in this close.
Key DOW levels for next week: 9995, 9900, 9850, 9800, 9775, 9700, 9650, 9600, 9575, 9500, 9450, 9415, 9100.
Both bullish and bearish cases still in play.
Fritz:
What’s your feel for Monday ?
Thanks
35% chance of a relentless short squeeze in the morning followed by a dump in the afternoon, close in the green.
30% chance a trading between 9600 and 9700 in the morning followed by a POMO rally and short-covering beginning at 1 pm, close in the green.
25% chance of a downside continuation in the morning with POMO-induced bear-shakeout beginning at 1 pm, close with a doji star or slightly green.
10% chance of dropping right through DOW 9600, this requires VIX to break through 26.35 without leaving gaps below and close above it.
JPM closed on its long term up trend line, so if it gaps up and stay above it, don’t get too bearish. If it starts breaking down, I will short it at the back test attempt (JPM will survive the whole financial collapse, but I feel more comfortable buying this stock @ $9
).
One thing everybody should remember is it’s the End of the Quarter. Window dressing is always in order. There has been NO CONFIRMATION that P2 (or whatever your label may be) is over. The UUP and DXY looks to me like a lot of short covering, and nothing more. P3 and the market will probably both be confirmed with a break of the UUP north of 23.05. I wouldn’t get too excited about being bearish until near or around that area. Don’t give away your profits! Metals and Miners held the 38.2% retrace(most of them–FCX and a couple others are near or on their 50% as I type this) and have room to move up much higher. I personally took advantage of that today on the dips. Go back and do some fibs on the $HUI and you will see what I am talking about. It was also clear to me that the lower trend line on the SPY was held. (July lows……I always use the last new low with the next new low) We could easily push up to 1090 or higher without very much effort over the next couple weeks. I don’t have any new turn dates as of today, as I need to see the next low, but my guess is we are in a sideways to slightly trending up until the October expiration.
I’m bought AMZN, GS, WYNN and FAS after market. Just so you know.
I thought you guys were short AMZN ad WYNN, or, is that just Idan’s play ?
Thanks
Changing mind frequently. Sorry.
GUYS, the turn date has changed for cycle theory.. due to uncertainty
OCTOBER 2ND to OCTOBER 9TH (yes a big standard deviation, but the fed decisions 20 point swing is unclear to me of its reliability in a time-series chart.. but I must take account of it so I increased the envelope of bottoming possibilities) WILL BE A NEW BOTTOM UNTIL EARLY NOVEMBER.
I am looking for good LONGS to ride out for october!
I say, average in on October 6th with your LONG positions!!
GOGOGOGOGOGO. There is no chart neeeded.. because theres so much uncertainty.. ill still post 1 up though.