Today we look at the rally and show how it fits in with the notion that we are in the last stretch before the top. This type of action where the whole stock market doesn’t seem to care anymore what the bonds and other assets are doing is very unsustainable, and we will probably get hit by reality very soon and shoot down. The resistance of 1067-1068 still technically holds, we will have to see what happens tomorrow. Since we hit the wedge resistance on the Dow, and are maybe 20-30 points from hitting it again, I do expect some consolidation of some sort into tomorrow, but a market that has no boundaries and is topping sometimes overlooks these levels especially on options expiration week. In this video i provide some strong technical resistances to look out for, and show you that the overbought stocks have begun to reverse. I look at SPX, SPY, Dow, Nasdaq, AAPL, MGM, STEC, WYNN, and LVS.
For those new wannabe traders like me, that are losing being short, and looking someone to blame (i.e. Idan, cnbc etc.) , view this guy. He says if you are trapped in the shorts that means that you do not know what you are doing. it’s all about the rght education, also there is no reason for the mkt should not to go higher….
http://www.thestockmentor.com/index-2.html
Oct, did you even watch Idan’s video? He said we can still move higher from here but 1068 is still resistance. He said the Dow is hitting it’s wedge resistance but this type of market can fakeout above it. The way I read this video is not that this market is necessarily at a top but that this market is in a topping process and that the overbought stocks he mentioned are showing weakness already. Misreading idan’s videos is what is getting you confused, maybe you don’t listen exactly to what he’s saying of maybe you don’t use stops and lose money…
Respectfully man, in a bull mrkt u don’t talk short, fakeouts, tops, resist. . .
this is a bull. the fed has spent trillions to trap shorts and elevate prices
into new territory.
There may be a black swan event, ride that out, stay long, buy calls on the
SSO or IYR, don’t think about SRS. . . . that POS has cost more wealth to traders
than cancer.
You might mistime and need an additional 7 months to recover, tell that to the
dumb-dumbs holding SRS from 225.
Rally? Recovery?????
This surge has been brought to you buy your shorts and SDS covers.
Again, i plead, if u have to be an ass. . . and need the short side, buy gold
or oil.
There will be a time for shorts, years from now.
Mike, did not mean to imply that I blame Idan for my mistakes. I tried to follow the site as it is , but it seems that the targets are more so dynamic than a sucker like me can follow. there is no free lunches , I assumed it was easy ( follow these guys and you’ll make money). I guess, some of us are novices and should go through this type of lessons. BTW I did not have stops (another good lesson)
The short-term top is likely in. This does not mean we fall, but that we are statistically, more likely to stick in a trading range and go down until October 2nd.
Statistically we have topped and should float around this level until October 2nd.
Here are the key cycle dates:
How can you play them? Well if on september 18th, the market is up 30 points, you know its a good short opportunity. On october 3rd if suddenly we fall 50 points, you know you should be going long because statistically the low will be in place on that date.
Obviously go short on september 17th, and go long on october 2nd
September 17th High (plus or minus 2 trading days)
October 2nd low (plus or minus 2 days)
The thing is, the main trading day cycle ended september 3rd, which was a time to be long since we bottomed. These ‘smaller cycles’ [on september 17th and october 2nd] are very inaccurate [with much less certainty], however you can still play them, guaranteed you have stops. Keep these dates in the back of your mind [with the standard deviaiton of 2 days].
The next bigger cycle which will make the market bottom out is on October 30th (plus or minus 3 trading days to account for all statistical possibilities). If you are looking to go long, I’d be long 50% during the first week of october and the other 50% at the first week of november.
Zee… are you the cycle guy who told us to go long on Sept 3rd as a result of a 41 day cycle?
Yes – he is …
September 3rd was the end of a 6-month cycle and a 41-trading day cycle coincidently ..
September 15th, 2008
March 9th, 2009
September 3rd, 2009:
See how the market is so congruent in its cycles?
zee thanks for the break down and well descriptive thoughts. I’ll keep these dates in mind.
NP.
For those looking for a top, there’s one more possibility–**I don’t expect it to happen**, but today, tomorrow or sometime next week is the top.
Technically, It would fit with the dates since 6-month cycles have a much bigger standard deviation of where tops/bottoms could occur so I do want the mention the other possbility [of the markets topping]..
There’s a trillion possbilities I can make-up. Let’s just keep it simple cause I’m confusing myself and others. I’ll post any significant update if it occurs.
HNU-TO has run up 95.7% since Sept. 3rd. looks like a temporary top today. Can anyone suggest what the anticipated fallback should be before it gathers more steam?
The best thing you can do is to consider this site like a coffee shop….where you provide bs to folks you don’t know. I’m sold most of my longs only because the rally is a bit ridiculous at this point.
Holding PEP and FXI like I said I bought two days ago (that typhoon was a slow down). Ultra bears say stuff like, “we are on the final stretch…or ooooh 1067 can go much higher because of EW!..”. What a bunch of ignorance. Keep calling the top and then say, “told ya” when it finally is.
Barf!
thanks for keeping it real. I guess if the market is really efficient and everyone knows that everyone knows all these levels, then it’ll screw you.
It is not that. It is about big long term money screwing short term small money. It is about uninvested mid term money managers getting back in the game on drop, while daytraders try to scalp a short.
Know your ‘money mind’ and be wise…..and don’t listen to others that you don’t know just because it ‘feels’ right.
I’m a joke, Idan is a joke…..becuase you don’t know us. The ultimate joke is on….hmmm….guess?
Even though I somewhat agree, how about looking at it this way: what about every-time a person calls for a rally to a certain level, say 10300 or 10400 on the dow, and it doesn’t happen? Guess what, that person is not going to get grilled like Idan does, although he is equally as wrong.
What Idan provides, are levels that reversal can occur, he went short at 1046, covered at 1035, and stayed out of the market till a day before yesterday, where he went short various overbought stocks. I think getting Idan’s perspective on the market, as he compared it to past rallies that he’s seen is important, for both the bulls and the bears to listen to. But check out today’s action, the market rallied 1 or 1.5% today, but Idan probably made a fortune as each of the stocks he went short fell from top to bottom 8%.