4:04pm
Well the end of the day was a little bearish, we have hit another resistance, it’s not the 1067 resistance, but the 1054 still sort of held.
3:44pm
Dow Hits Wedge Resistance once more, (financials now breaking down) hence we are forming a reversal candle here (60 minute):
3:22pm
Stopped out from SRS, and for a good reason, this market is ready to hit new highs.
3:10pm
SRS is consolidating on the 10 minute, this could be the trigger to go long. WENT long 9.83, stop at 9.75 (taking my chances slightly).
2:54pm
If the SRS can do the following (break the descending resistances, i’ll be bullish, till then there is a possibility for another strong dump of the order of 10%-20%) SRS 30 minute chart:
2:40pm
Notice futures hit significant levels, (ES at 1050, NAS at 1700 – Thanks Mark for the update), this does put pressure as resistance on the market. This is the S&P 1053-1054 level.. and this could be a top although a move to 1068 is still likely. JPM lagging this market yet again, after it seemed like it was ready to break out, it’s going back into a breaking down pattern. H&S now forming on JPM 10 minutes.
1:57pm
Sorry I had to leave for an emergency today, but i’m back and i see that the USO has bounced off it’s strong support… meaning we might still get another move higher. SPX hit 10531054, a little above it already, we will have to see what happens around 1068.
11:41am
The market hit 1050 and fell, and then rose again. 1050 on my charts is not technically a signficant level (though it can be psychological) we are more likely to see 1053 and 1068 than just stop at 1050. Take a look at USO as it might be collapsing sooooooon.
12:34am
By making a new high yesterday, this market is potentially eyeing what we call an exhaustion top , where the market would rally 2-3% in one day and then this whole rally will be over as the bears pile in and form a potential reversal candle or pile in as soon as we hit the close. My target is around 1067-1068 to get short again. A possible top still lies at 1053, which is 50% from the fall of 1444 to 666. Exhaustion tops are very similar to capitulation bottoms, where the volume is incredibly strong and a sharp reversal occurs the next day. That’s when I plan to bring in the big percentages in my portfolio short. Until then, play the market from both sides. WYNN i’m short, AMZN I want to be short at 88$/share, i want to be short AAPl at around 178, and short uso upon break of it’s triangle formation to the downside (if it happens). Take a look, the first signs of this market topping is if oil collapses:
USO 4 hour candles triangle formation (held by bearmarket rally support):
In addition, SRS is showing the signs of a start of capitulation, wait for one more day of a shove lower, and that’s when I’d be thinking of adding a position.
stopped out and sold. locked in about 25% profit on today’s calls.
sold around the 1052.15 level. possible gap down here, and RSI is too high. need some drop and consolidation for more rising to occur. will play another day trade later when the stars are more aligned.
could gap down another 2 points if not careful.
woo, since you are master in elliott wave, I was wondering how you count waves in any short term. I mean can you count 5 waves up on the move that we had just today, and then expecta 3 wave correction at this point to come?
you CAN, but it’s not as solid as longer term waves. i take intraday and short term waves very lightly. i’m a strong believer in long term EW, but not so much in counting waves for short term. Fibs still play a very significant role in intraday, but it’s hard to call peaks and valleys until after they are finished.
so i use intraday counts, but am never surprised if you have to end up changing your intraday count based on a move that offsets your counts. tread lightly.
Idan, at what price point will you consider getting into SRS? Right now it’s sitting at $9.70
I want to see it form an inverse H&S… it might be starting to… There is still a chance for one more dump though.
bought 4000
robert, did you buy 4000 of SRS?
no I bought 4000 tza, Nasdaq might touch 2108 or 2109 , but I can take the risk here. I am gambling the wave 5 will be truncated. I bought at 12.25
on the 60 minute, the 1053 retrace that idan was talking about has held.
from where we currently are, there’s a 2 point gap up, or a 2 point gap down. have no idea where it’s headed short term. if it drops, i’ll consider buying back in for a small position to hold into tomorrow.
We are strong support on 10 min – 20 MA … also if you draw a trendline on lows from yesterdays gap down to today’s low … we are right on it right now …
yeah, we’re above a 20 day trend line, bounced right off of it.
however, that 1053 area might not give in without more of a fight. whether we break north, or stay under, i won’t be surprised either way. i’m actually leaning towards under 1053 into closing. i don’t think we have the steam to get it done today.
Tough call… 1053/1054 is pretty stiff resistance, all the same though can we thwart the late day push that we seem to be seeing continuously lately?
looks like it might just gap back up.
maybe i sold too early haha.
We’ve tried twice to recapture that ascending line and failed….I’m sure we see 106 today but it won’t hold.
if it hit 106 today that would not be fair because i already got out.
it’s starting to look like a 3 wave intraday has finished, and it could be starting the 5 wave up. i rather see that 3 wave down complete into a 5 wave down, and give me a better chance to get back in for a rise later.
i also don’t really like where RSI is sitting for where this market needs to go. in cash for now.
Woo:
What do you have for RSI ?
Thanks
70
Why is GS lagging this rally?
Ummm cause they are at the top of this rally…..printed a new 52wk high today.
just thought they would have made a bigger move based on the market move that’s all
That was just me in deep thought not sarcasm….looks bad in print? Sorry.
no worries, thanks for responding
add 1000 shares SRS
Everything over valued, over bought and at 52 wk highs. Buy buy buy.
That IHS on the RIFIN will not stop until res of 816.76!!! Unreal. 111 on the SPY!
looks like the wave played out to the north. not sure if there will be another chance to buy back in, i’m hoping for a drop back to the 1053 level into closing, before the rise to 1059.
back to lunch.
Woo – if this drops to 1053 … will you be buying calls again … asking as I can only swing trade with at least overnight trade… so wanted your thoughts …
Also, what calls would you be looking to buy ? Sept ?
on the 60 minute we haven’t really broken solidly north of the 1033-1034 area.
i dunno if u want to take a sept position right now on calls because of the high risk of a retrace.
i took a very small october position into closing in case any drops occur, i can buy back in or hold a while.
i wouldn’t buy a sept position just yet because the market could just as easily keep dropping into the EOW and then take of beginning of next week. but there may be points where it’s worth the risk. i’ll let you know if i decide to grab a sept call position this week.
Woo – I bought Oct calls near the close on seeing a bounce off your 1053 level …
Pulled the trigger on my Oct LVS 20 calls … … my tgt is still 21 … chart bullish as hell …
it could dip into tomorrow, but having the october options is a fairly safe bet and should mitigate any large risk. not sure how much resistance this 1053-1054 will be on the 60 minute, but i don’t think we’re at the peak just yet.
if there’s a significant drop into tomorrow, i may consider calls, but i’ll have to see what level it drops to first.
good luck on LVS. i generally stay away from LVS and MGM options because they can have some crazy volatility days. could be a lot of money to be made though.
Question for you is where you do think this could drop to – when you say significant drop
Also, at what point do we say – ok – get out of longs ?
Apparently Danny has calling today the top …
I actually now hold Oct 12 MGM calls ITM and just bought the Oct 20 LVS calls at the close – if we reach 21 tomm I get out
I closed my EMC calls today for a 20% profit
Can anyone explain the difference between negative divergence (bearish) and indicators merely “resetting” by coming off from overbought territory to less/non-overbought (bullish)? Thanks.
Holding GS 160 p Sept&Oct. It will come in.
Today’s high hit the multi-year trendline connecting 1994 lows to the 2002 lows It was exact..
Nasdaq 2107 could be the high for this wave.
If the S&P 500 cash index closes below 1049, it will paint a red candle. It could be the top. Who knows? Percentage of bears is VERY low (4%).
I guess nasdaq will close at 2100
Just popped into ask, whats going on with C? Does someone know something? Potentially some bad news coming out?
Gov plans to sell C shares, and C might issue another 5 billion stock
S$it was crazy today.
Filled on ATK nov. 70 puts at 1.15 each
POT Dec 100 calls 5.95, sold oct 105 calls at 1.20
Thor Jan 30 calls 2.10
adbe down AH after earning
It seems as if the daily chart for the S&P 500 cash index could give us a bearish cross tomorrow.
The last big move on SPY was from 103.38-105.30 or 1.92
1.92 x 1.382 = 106.03
1.92 x 1.500 = 106.26
Today’s high 106.11 = Close enough?
I closed out all my longs and nibbled a couple of shorts. I have my turn date as tomorrow, so thought I may as well hold and see if it works out. If not, up we go…..
Good Luck,
Ox
VERY CLOSE INDEED!
This has satisfied my targets for the most part..I was in mid 1050′s to 1078 camp. I am still concerned with it being an end of the quarter ending month however. Upside targets should not be ignored for this reason. The shorts I am currently holding are not for position or long term. Just hoping to capitalize on some downside movement in anticipation of more upside.
A short-term 11-day high will be made on September 17th (plus or minus 3 days–with a standard deviation so big. it is almost a certainty).
Good luck.