Part 1:
Part 2:
Today we look at how the market is forming a possible top and end to the rally for the short and short/medium terms. We see that many short ETFS are forming capitulation bottoms, and that many stocks are rallying beyond sustainable levels. With that in mind, we believe that one of the targets for this rally will form the last resistance, and we will begin at least a 20-25% consolidation. While we do have still a potential 1-3% more upside from here, going short today was smarter than going long. This market in the near term (1-2days) could consolidate once more, if not reverse. Our targets are 1053-1055, or 1067-1068 and finally 1088 (if it ever reaches it), based on fib retracement targets. In these videos we show you the Dow and how it hits resistance, the S&P and how that hits resistance of the wedge and horizontal price resistance. We show you individual stocks such as the USO, XLF, SRS, JPM, SPY, WYNN and MGM.
keep calling a top… eventually you’ll be right
i’m saying we are between 1-3% away from it.
yeah, u can always change your mind, say u went long as you have been doing
all along.
U must be broke by NOW?
Could i plse speak to Woooo ? He seems to have a grip on realty.
we went long from 1030ish to 1046, went short at 1046, covered short at 1035.. said that we can get a bounce there… now we’re saying it’s time to get short again.
Those that called the bottom at 800, and kept adding as they went down, are sitting at more than 30% +… i believe doing the same thing will provide me with similar returns.
Good luck danny, one of us has to be right!!!
I thought u were calling a head and shoulders top in 802 ??? I know you stayed
way too bearish from the 667 bottom but many of us made that error.
Woooo has been nearly stop on. A real asset with a great nack for market timer
that wooooo is.
My wife now hates Wooooo. Every time he makes me money i run around the
house screeching Wooooooo-woooooooo-wooooo. Been doing lots of that!!!
Woo and I talk about these things every single day.
Yes we went short at 920-950s hoping for a push lower, we did get that… yes we hoped for a push lower at 875, didn’t come.. we were forced to cover at 930s.. some with losses some with profits.
I was the first one to call a bottom at 670.. and i stayed long until the 740s… i made the mistake of thinking the correction was very small.
But i trade mostly individual sectors or stocks and not the SPY… i just try and make sense of what happens in the SPY. And the hedge fund only looks at individual very very overbought stocks vs very very oversold stocks. and those move very irregularly in comparison to the market.
I let myself get stopped out, I can be on the wrong side of the trade, and only lose a small amount, and once it turns my way make five-ten times the amount that i lost in each of my losing trades.
Woo uses fibs, and I bet you he and I agree that somewhere in the next 3 % there’s a strong chance of a top for at least a 20% downshoot.
Least you can dooooo is spell Woo’s name right … also, if you tone down your language you may not turn so many people off .. it’s not just what you say but HOW you say it !!
Idan – I agree with you. The market is very close to its top. Going long is a risky strategy.
I find that when markets are going up, traders who are buying the dips make money. As it continues to go up, they get bolder. Also, “dumb money” traders jump in and they too start buying the dips. I think we are in this “greed” phase.
The best signal that the market is reaching its top is when sellers who are holding long positions start selling. Volume picks up. The market does not move up much. This is exactly what we saw today. Volume was 20% over average volume.
I believe that the buy the dip crowd has less commitment to hold shares once the market turns. I think a 3% to 5% correction is coming soon.
Today Kroger warned that some of its consumers are running out of cash by the end of the month. More people are using food stamps.
The market will quit going up when it starts coming down.
I certainly hope that Idan is right, I give credit to Idan for some good calls, 1046-1035, 1030s back to 990. But I definately see some mistakes made that seem to be the result of a somewhat dogmatic view to the short side. That 875 taking losses at 930 was an unfortunate example of such bias. Once the neckline was strongly broken to the upside the head and shoulders was nullified. Additionally the enthusasim that was generated from Whitney’s “trading call” and better than expected Q2 earnings made this call rather unrealistic. Thinking the gusto of this rally myself was too much I questioned those like Steve Grasso calling for 1000 and now 1100. So far those who many speak of with distain who appear on CNBC all bullish are looking alot smarter than many of us. I hope that will not continue to be the case, but it is feeling like it might be just that.
You are missing the mainstay of financial reporting in todays world. It is designed
to be questioned by the intelligent and accepted by the simp.
An idiot like cramer, screaming sell at bottoms and buy at improbable tops. . . and a
news story that should tank markets that causes them to take off like scalded chimps.
trading is very counter intuitive. the good traders here made six figures during the
double bottoms of nov and march. they were that predictable.
Now the key is not to hand it back. Not to feed the pig.
Having a low life like grasso or cramer cream in his pants while making moonshot
predictions and walking walls of scurry. . . . its designed to trick up the intelligent
with dumb. And in money, stupid beats smart to the punch every damn time.
That is why u ignore news, turn off the vol on cnbc, watch the charts and ignore the
farts. Its all a game for the insiders, its a joke we don’t yet get. Cramer and
his manic depressive rants, his bipolar character and crooked motives (come on,
recommend C at $5 ???? WT*?) I hope u all know he sells his ‘picks and pans’ to
the select at 3PM daily so we can load up at market and sell at an immediate 15%
profit in the after hours.
T/A baby. And real time risk reward management.
Now? I doubt serious downside will be allowed outside of a black swan event,
retail money needs to be dumpt in, drawn down and taken for a ride. I am old,
lived thru the early 80s market, the 87 crash, the 89 crash. . . the lies of parabolic being the new norm. . . . and “its different now/this time”.
Think like a crook or conman. Like a crack dealer hooking people up.
And understand, the Liesmans, the Cramers, Bernanke and the cast of this ongoing
sitcom are actors.
He actually recommended C at 3.80… Personally I think C isn’t worth much more than 0 at the moment. I predicted the bottom as well about a week in advance and did very nicely. But have given alot back trying to call the top since the 900 area. This endeavor doesn’t seem very fruitful.
Excellent Op-Ed.
No one knows less of markets and price than i. I enjoy following your comments and appreciate
the stuff u do.
These bear rallies are hard to time, they tend to have gov’t backing, always look better than the
real deal. . . and can go forever without correction . . . . till the last bear buys long ?
I suspect the current rally will not be allowed to fail as the suckers need to be drawn in and butchered
at a later date. don’t think we have the volume yet to plunge. Even the put call ratio does not
factor under these ‘suspicious’ manipulations.
Gotta go, black helicopters and flowers by mary van across street, lol.
Whitney makes an interesting point… Fed bond purchases end in Oct.
I also think it would have been more helpful to talk about the long side too… for example… when we broke down to 991 that last time, Idan stated we should take some short profits. That was right, but adding something like… “a re-break of the 1000 level could warrant a long position with a tight stop.”
Or maybe you could read into this by noticing if 991 weren’t to break this would be a nice entry to go long…..The entries and exits are there if one would just notice ‘em.
Nice that you mentioned MGM Idan…that is one of the nibbles I took near the end of the day. I happened to get some SRS today as well. I track and trade SPG pretty regularly and it hit my upside target today and reversed as I expected. Take a look at the weekly MS 2 year and see what you think of that
Ox
Ya… I should have… still learning. I pointed out MGM to Idan yesterday though, MGM is just totally out of control.
Ox – can you share your site info ….
Also, I am holding MGM calls … planning to sell @ 13.67 (already there AH due to the Cramer pump) or put a tight stop … if it breaks above 14 .. next stop is 16ish … at this point, my stops are going right below each gap up … and this is NOT A LONG TERM TRADE … don’t want anyone to buy it thinking it is one ….remember .. it could gap down too ..
Top of what?…the week, the month, the quarter?
Hope you are playing with spare change,…Forest.
Let me rephrase….we will see 1100 before EOY. So, play the short term top…but be quick. The holidays are coming!!!!
LOL
2 major fund stratagists on Bloomie came up saying any investment in the next
6 weeks will be regretted as major sell off in works.
Funny, they never say that, always optimistic. One begged investors to waitr
a month or they will be discouraged from investing forever.
Another intersting read in the comments of Danny’s blog today is by someone called Fred who is supposedly a money manager… we all need to be careful of who is who on the Net … but still an interesting read …