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4:03pm
Market close on a bullish note, even though it can retrace back due to double top area, my guess is that it shoots up towards the 1055 and then 1067-68 areas, and topps around there. When the Dow hits 9750-9800.
3:07pm
For those who haven’t been watching, JPM broke out of the descending resistance, i covered everything and got out.. the selling of the puts and buying of the calls made the trade profitable nonetheless.
2:35pm
This market is now at a double top… we might break to new highs (even though we have the wedge resistance pretty close above somwhere in between 1047-1055), rememeber that the 1067-1068 level is really really strong and so is 1088… my guess is one of these two holds.
2:15pm
Well the market broke up to the upside (which is what i favored based on the short/long dillemma we had 2 hours ago), and with that we get another bull flag, which can take us to the upside again. JPM will find strong descending resistance at 43.35, a break of that will make me cover my short (which has been slightly down, but if you include my selling of the puts, i am up).
1:17pm
The people who went short the SPY today with a stop did NOT get stopped out, the peak since has only been 104.74… so you guys are sitting pretty still. I’m going to go for an hour but will be back for the afternoon trading. I went short WYNN at 66.90, 67.40 with a hedge of sell to open 65$ september puts for 1.15 a contract. That means that my cost basis is actually as if i shorted it at 68.40+
12:40pm
In my opinion AMZN has already peaked the day before earnings, and is now starting it’s move lower, with a H&S formation as a top.
12:34pm
WYNN is one of those stocks on the daily, that you can definetly see a 5 wave move already, I think it’s a short due to overbougthness, this stock is hitting up against some resistance. It might go another 1-3% higher but I think ultimately this one is going to be sitting very soon in the upper 50s.
12:28pm
STEC 60 minute, shows you a little bit of a wedge, might be worth thinking about a short on this on a bear flag:
12:18pm
Yes we do have a bear flag on the 5 minute SPY over the last 20 minutes, but we also have a bull flag over the last 1 hour, so how do you play this? Choose a side, and keep a 0.15% tight stop, and make it trail. Example: if you are a shorter, go short here put a stop at around 104.75. If you want to go long put a stop at 104.42 (under 5 minute 200 SMA). I might favor more the upside here, but it’s better not to judge and let stops do the work for you.
11:45am
The Dollar just strengthened slightly putting it back into positive territory. This has dampened the rally somewhat. 104.40 on the SPY is a possible ascending support line (drawn blue on my chart).
11:35am
The max pain/current pain for september options of most stocks are at least 4-5% below where we are trading… is that sigfnicant? not necessarily, it depends where the big money is that. But usually we see stocks correct to reflect wagered option positions late tuesday-thursday.
11:30am
Most stocks are either at a double top right now, or they are at a head and shoulders top, the way to play this, is if you see stocks break through the double top formation, you should get long the stocks that are still in a H&S formation because they are likely to break out of it, and move higher. So far ETFs like IYR are well held by this double top, and JPM and XLF are on the head and shoulders. The last candle was not ncessarily a topping candle (we closed at 104.77).
11:26am
The market might be putting in a topping candle here… depends where we end at 11:30.. but if we close this candle below 104.75 it will be considered a hammer.
11:04am
If we break to new highs, my next level of positioning short will be the 1067-1068, this level is one of the most improtant levels yet as it presents a lot of key fibonacci retracements along this rally. If we break however the 23.6% retrace that was found as support today and the 38.2% retracemenet, we can then see a strong sell off resume. These two fib retracements have been held by bulls all along, everytime those two break, the bears get a nice 4-5% sell off, before the bigger 23.6% retracement is hit.
10:48am
Sorry I was gone for an hour, but I want people to see that we opened right at the 23.6% retrace and just bounced right off. That’s been happening in the market every single time we sell off… The XLF might be forming a H&S on the 10 minute now.
12:21am
Well the futures are down about 1%… that’s relatively significant, but we’ve seen this happen before. If you have watched my videos, you would know that we have expected that friday would be a reversal day, and that a significantly lower open on monday was likely. I highly advise people who are short to keep a trailing stop on their shorts, and when we hit fibonacci retracements, to hedge themselves with a long of some sort.
Here’s the SPY 10 minutes on the right, and a temporary descending channel on the ES 5 minute on the left:
That Bull flag is going to fail!!
I’m going to get some flak from this here, but I must say, I experiment with Jim Cramer’s $295/year account about two week ago, and now I am up about $40K on his calls. I only used a small portion of my IRA portfolio as it made sense for long term planing just in case his calls were crap. I just wish I double up on my experiment.
Sometimes, if you can’t beat them, just join them…. to some extent.
Cramer picks I own: HON, ABT, VALE, GILD, HD, JCI, WFC, CBE, MO.
whoops…only $28K.
I remember, some “very good” picks from Cramer, on 2008, like: JSDA and CROX.
If you followed him, probably you would lost almost 100% of you investiment.
Stay with him!!!
No flak from me Cramer has been bang on with this bull market.
It is his whole methodogy that works well with IRA money. His entries are good but not perfect and his following is pretty powerful. I am a believer now – but alway cautious. I have seen his moves out of JPM before it was discussed here and his research team is obvioulsy very good. I am still trying to find ways to not be too big a fan.
Wow. Interesting. Maybe I’m too busy hating Cramer.
Valerie, I’m not kidding. My greatest pain right now is that I lost great opportunity hating him for a long time. His show is pretty much crap, but his Action Alerts Plus is awesome for the money. A no-branier in my opinion.
Again, IRA is best in my oppinion.
Next time you get the picks post them here
Curious to see how he performed when the market was selling off or if his picks are only good during a bull move.
The reason I wonder that is because as long as you picked something, anything long during this move from March to now you made money long.
double top … Sell
Im numb. At this rate well be at 14,000 in no time.
you mean 1400.
oops, thanks.
Broke north out of the bull flag.
Anyone have any thoughts on PLD?
To those that trust the charts and not opinions this is one of the most bullish charts I have ever seen.
Which?
I agree … sold my Dec XLF puts – 50% …
Idan – any thoughts on how you hedge for small positions ? I usually buy 2-3 contracts at a time …
well what small position do you have on? be clear on if it is a buy to open or a sell to open position.
Idan – I had a XLF Dec 14 puts @ 1.32 … 3 contracts … bought at XLF =13.95 – sold at 0.84
What would have been the right way to hedge this position – since I had 3 contracts (buy to open) …. also, I have not experimented with sell to open at all except in put spreads (paper trading) …
Is there any way I could have played this better ?
in order to sell to open for options i believe you need level 4 clearance. a majority of options traders don’t short options, although it’s not a bad idea during opex week with all the decay.
you only need level 4 clearnance for a sell to open that is uncovered.
I would have bought 3 contracts of december of a strong finnaicla like GS, or sold some puts to open at 12 on the XLF.
add 1000 SDS
1000 TZA
like i said 1060ish here we come… mess wit the bull get the horns
so we’ve broken out of the fib projection previous high. we could just skyrocket from here towards 1088-1090.
however, because of all the significant rising, i’m going to wait for a possible dip first, and then buy in at that dip. we could open a LOT higher, but since it’s opex week i’m going to risk missing out on the initial pop, for the chance to get in on a better position.
anyone who got in near the 1044 break are sitting really pretty going into tomorrow. hopefully i’ll have a chance to get back into this rally.
ended up taking a very small call position, just for a test run.
Should get a gap up in the morning
Woo – what calls are you playing ?
ITM sept 105 strike.
I graded your Test and it passed with flying colors Woo….LOL I am currently holding 420 contracts long the market, the majority since Friday as I stated then. I added TRV and BEN today with nice success. I also added GLW which looks like it may break above the 200 sma on an hourly tomorrow, so this was a bit of a gamble. I got the TRV at that same area today when it tested. BEN was on the break out. I have SPG from Friday on the break out. SPY 108′s at a cost of 1.13 without having to add today with a hedge. Gambled on some UCO but those are flat. Underwater on MON GFI APA from Friday but will hold because the positions aren’t that large and I think they all hold their 38.2 at worst. I will add to these when and if appropriate. Also holding MHS (from last week at 200 simple test on hourly) which is my best trade so far even without much volume, and NFLX which is flat. My intention is to sell most or all of these tomorrow and then sit on my hands and wait for the market action on Wednesday to give me new direction.
We use a u-stream room for chatting during the day (I am hosting the room), but at this point there is no commentary. Music is available through TOS if you use that however. We have many good traders in the room that makes call outs so to say, but it is up to you to find the direction. Normal disclaimers apply in the chat room. All types of traders, from stock slingers right down to the spread option players. Most of us are day / swing traders, yet some do hold position trades. On a normal day we typically only stream the futures in the room, but pull other charts in as well. For those of us in there it is just easier to have the live chat rather than a board to post on which causes us a bit too much delay. The room is free if you want to come and watch or learn. I will only post it in a follow up here if somebody wants to know about it. I don’t believe in spamming other sites / rooms.
Happy Trading,
Ox
OX – pls do share the room info ..
The room is here:
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/shark-room-ii
Open during market hours (Usually open 15-30 minutes prior) I love some of the traders in here, and have learned most of what I know from them.
The S&P or DOW. Both the daily and the hourly and 10 minute. Look at the 10 minute. Successive bull flags all broken to the upside. A bullish hammer candle today. Not overbought, but bullish RSI. MACD looks good. MACD on daily is diverging, but MACD is given too much credit. But the averages on the daily have a bull pattern. It is above it’s trendline. Most importantly it has made a new high. It’s a bull, no matter how flawed a bull it is.
To be honest I hate going long here. I really do. Because my gut tells me it is wrong. Fundamentals do not match the market. I really believe we will have a severe correction, but I am not smart enough to pick a top. Over the years, and I have learned the hard way, I tend to trust the chart more than fundamentals.
“To be honest I hate going long here. I really do. Because my gut tells me it is wrong. Fundamentals do not match the market. I really believe we will have a severe correction, but I am not smart enough to pick a top.”
Exactly. So I sidelined all day other than a small TNA position and missed a good come back. Problem is I looked at oil and gold down; dollar not good but not tanking, no real news and figured we’d retreat. Joke’s on me MM’s. Guess it’s time to hold my nose and buy on any morning retreat. Still have no, nada, nil desire to hold overnight though.
UNREAL……Speechless really?
why?
I went long today, tomorrow BBY and ADBE earning, market could gap open, if gap open big it is time to sell long, I long on drys, I sold few days ago too early.
Good for you on drys. I’ve been tracking it but no guts to buy right now.
Bears cooked again,stay out of the way.
Keep in mind that this very bullish day was on the heals of a very bad day in Asia.
Asia is going to skyrocket tomorrow and it would be very hard for the US not to follow. I bought 1,000 shares of FXI as a swing trade at 42.43.
It is almost too obvious.
market usually will finish top on a big rally day, like 200 point rally, then down big followed
hmmm….like when and which market are you referring to?
US market not following Asian market today, why based on your logic, would it follow tomorrow.
Go to Google finance and do a yearly chart of SPY. Then add comparison to FXI. Let me know what you see.
Most of the DOW 30 stocks I analyzed last week have broken out to the upside. Very glad I took profit on my puts right at the open. If the DOW makes new highs tomorrow (I’ve mentioned previously that the DOW gives cleaner signals with less fakeouts than the SPX or Nasdaq), look out because we’re heading for 10300, fast.
I read somewhere it’s not about fundamentals, it’s all about liquidity. Last year liquidity was disappearing but now I believe there is a lot. Is there some way to track this liquidity? Maybe that’s like asking how much money in bonds the government is going to buy back this year. I don’t know.
Maybe now it’s finally time to go short now that all the bears on this board are scared sh*tless and are all convinced we’re going higher.
Why can’t today be a fake-out? it would be a pretty damn good one considering everyone was closing out of short positions once we started breaking to upside.
Anyway, there is a VERY noticeable change of moods/sentiment on this board all of a sudden, and perhaps that’s a sign.
I’m going to wait for it to trend lower before I short it. It was looking like it might start in the futures market but it never came to pass. Even though the charts tell me to, I am not going long at the moment.
I found it interesting to note that someone who is always biased strongly on the bullish side since I’ve been following him at
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
has a chart showing a possible top at roughly 1047 to 1054 and expects up to a 30 to 40 point pullback with support around 1011. I guess to remain bullish, it would help if we got out of these extreme overbought short term indicators.
Cobra is indicating on a trading day seasonality pattern, tommorrow is the most bearish day for the month for the nasdaq 100.
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/