Today we look at the alternate views of the longer term market based on Elliott wave analysis. Some other things to keep in mind is that this market needs to retrace very very soon. We managed to call the top around 1044-1046 today, and we expect some sort of selling pressure into monday. We look at SPX, Dow Jones, JPM and XLF (which are both forming H&S formations).
Idan,
This video Update Sep 11 – alternate views has sound track problem. Your voice being cut on and off.
i played it on multiple computers and it works fine…maybe something is wrong with your computer? or the browser you are using.
I think you are using the thinkorswim from TD, now….had probs with it. How do you like it?
I went long at the bottom today on selected stocks with about 25%. Shorting the Russel was suppose to me a hedge but never got to where I wanted it. I hope we get a drop on Monday so that I can pick up the rest of the longs I am looking at. There is not reason to get over bullish or bearish at this point. We drifted higher like I said we would and next week will be a good week to see how the market really feels.
It is not the time to be all in.
very very true. I use TOS, TD and Etrade .. ithey are all good at different things.
Fedex brings good news
Some bullish folks are telling me this is good news for the economy as a whole.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=akMK4d.12zew
Article says that growth will be outside the US. It will mostly be between Asian countries (India-China, SEA, etc) In addition, profit is still 50+% down from last year. Most companies are really trading on the “hope of a brighter tomorrow” and not the reality of “how it will be tomorrow”.
Stocks ALWAYS trade at hope
its is speculative. The march lows were also speculative as the majority were thinking Armageddon.
If any knows “how it will be tomorrow” then what I can I say
Updated S&P daily chart after close with all windows in sync:
http://i25.tinypic.com/ad14cy.png
Link to live chart (requires subscription):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p53740951187&a=175424283&listNum=2
A dip here would likely find support near 1014-1020, with serious downside possible if the green uptrend breaks.
Thanks, Unersaettlich, for the updated chart. This captures in one place the multiple indicators that people are discussing in financial blogs. Just hope that we don’t get fooled again. Good luck!
Up day Monday cause they won’t let it fall because bama will be yummering about the recovery.If we break 1050 next stop would be 1150 which would be a a shorting opportunity on a golden platter for bears
Not true, there are so many more stops between 1050 and 1150. First of all the 50% retrace of the whole bear market is at 1120.
But there is also 1153, 1165, 1188 which are strong fib retracements and gap fills.. which could cause reversals.
True but if we break 1050 next major resistance is 1153 ,lot of squiggles in between. will be slowly scaling in shorts on the way there and going in heavy after 1125.Not playing for 20,30 point moves playing for the retest of March lows
No i’m saying that all of the resistances from 1046 to 1120 are all possible at reversing us to a strong consolidation at least (of 20-25%)
I think we retest March lows, then bounce to 1200 next year and break S&P 600. Either way, there is huge opportunity for profit. Been sitting on my hands since July, so a few weeks more I will be able to handle.Timing is everything with options
Shady… are you buying spy puts and if so which month you going out till?? How you getting short?
I think if we retest the lows, we will more likely break down.. I think the likelyhood is that we either reverse around the 7900 level or 800 level on the SPX higher to the 1220 level.. or we break down completely.
I will be buying IWM puts. 1st i will buy puts about 5-10% out of the money to hedge a big position of puts way out of money. Say we hit $65 i will buy 60 puts to hedge a big position of $40 puts if we only end up correcting 10% or less.
Not sure on month have to see how this plays out in the next couple of weeks but most likely December
Excuse typo errors,just got back from rotor cuff surgrey.We need an edit button
I have one. How’d I do?
One thing that made 0 sense in Friday’s market… OIH! Explained by GS upgrades in the oil services sector, but if oil continues to fall Monday or for a few more days those upgrades are going up in smoke next week.
US punitive tarriffs that Obama just thrown on Chinese tires could cause a real US-China rift… watch out for that Monday. China could easily f*ck over the US by simply not participating actively in an upcoming treasury auction.
There is also the Fed’s appeal of their forced disclosure looming by end of Sept.I think they will win (and that will rally market) but if they lose, the entire curtain may be pulled back. Either we will see that some big banks are in serious trouble or that a serious scam has been ongoing if GS and JPM etc are on the list. That would be a black swan dropping a huge deuce.
I agree with Idan, because dollar should rebound soon, because DSI (daily sentiment Index) on bull side is just 4%. At present USD/EUR is around 1.459, and next major support is around 1.49.
I was wondering if there is any chance that the 20years H&S fail and we would never see a new low in coming years?
I am told that long term HS are meaningful and manifest. Is it 100%, 90% or 75% – thats the question………..
It’s about 90% breakdown.. but even if we don’t break down.. we still have to test the necklines first, and that would mean, form a lower low.. since the neckline is descending.
Idan,
I appreciate your update, and I believe Elliott wave analysis has its great value and logic. But this time our trading world has a problem: no place for that excess liquidity to go except put in the market .Therefore, this strong force can not let market has big reversal. I will be glad to see this market go down to the level as you mentioned.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3beae6c2-9efc-11de-80...
Idan, How did you setup your chart on TOS to show the 20 years data. I have account on TOS and it just shows upto 2006 not before that? I also wanted to ask you about ETRADE and the value it has for you compare to TOS?
In order to see 20 year data, you need to go the style tab on the right top part of your screen, and select a 20 yr chart.
I like Etrade better due to it’s option chains… it’s just clearer for me, and very cheap. Since I make tons of trades, it’s 6.99 $ + 0.75 cents a contract.
I just put up a blog that ends with a 20-year chart showing two views of the market:
http://www.stocktock.com/2009/09/13/speaking-of-20-year-and-other-longer-term-charts/