4:12pm
The market (especially financials) saved itself from a strong sell off right at the end of the day, I do expect that sell off to take place in the futures market on monday, we might see one big swoosh lower of at least 10 points to around the 1034 level on the SPX before we can even consider moving higher.
3:00pm
If the market wants to reverse and start working it’s way lower, it will NEED to do it moderatly with no panic at first, and break the ascending wedge support, which is actually far below now a days.
2:33pm
H&S on the SPY 10 minute with a neckline around the 104.25-104.35 level. A break of 104.95 to the upside will nullify it.
2:00pm
The market is being pulled down by weakness in oil, and a little bit of financials in weakness (especially JPM), and the dollar could be forming an inverse H&S, on the 10 min.
12:12pm
JPM 60 minute H&S looks very good here, especially if the market has topped out for a day or two (I have to leave for a few hours):
12:02pm
Well there you have it.. the little push of 0.5% higher only to reverse lower.. i think we will be moving lower to at least 1035 now. You can watch how my channel worked to perfection (the resistance) SPX 60:
12:57am
The futures are slightly down but technically we still have potentially between 0.2-0.5% more upside before we reverse. We could get a lower open.. a last shot up and then a reversal. Again I don’t suggest buying tomorrow, i suggest shorting or waiting for a pull back before buying. I took profits on longs yesterday and am hedged very nicely on JPM. Rememeber we’ve rallied for 5 days straight and we are overbought on a few indicators. This might not be the ultimate top, other targets such a 1055, 1065 and 1088 remain.
WOO, how are you positioning for the next week?
i mean net long or net short in your trading account…
I was holding some SCO but Morris with this UCO made me thinking….
SCO made a big move today. Are you still holding it?
We consolidating for the next leg into EOM/1st week of Oct.S&P 1150
I agree, it looks like just consolidation for another leg up again. Decided not to buy before the weekend.
I really wanted to buy SDS…
I WAS ONE DAY OFF BUT GOLD CLOSED over a G
Got rid of my TZA.. Continuation or reversal doji?? Lets see what next week brings..
Anyone following MOT?
MOT is great if ya got it last week or earlier. I am watching it again now, but want to see it above 9.00 before I consider buying. A lot of confluence in the area its at with the current levels. It spent quite a bit of time here last spring and fall.
Yes – I was thinking of it as a quick short candidate for exact same reasons you stated. I thought it will pull back if there is a general market pull back. I may be wrong given the positive momentum in MOT from today’s Cliq news.
I kept all my longs (Options…all October nothing front month) for a hold over the weekend. Nice money to be made on both sides of the trades lately. I hope everybody is using this to their advantage. (Day traders) I am liking the idea of 1078 on SPX. The last SPY move gave me a target of 107.22 which fits in the trade nicely. I think once (and if) we take out today’s high it will skyrocket on the volume to give us that “blow off” top. My turn date is the 16th give or take due to Options Expiration.
Ox – can you share more on how you came to these targets ?
Will be good weekend learning for the rest of us
This time around it was both math and sentiment on my part. The last SPY move was 1.92. It went from 103.38-105.30. I added 105.30 and 1.92 to get 107.22. Even if I multiply it by some Fib numbers (1.618 and 1.764) I still come up a dollar short of the 109.68 October gap fill. I think if / when we make a newer high, everybody will assume the gap will be filled to suck in more bulls, so it will not. At least this time around. I could very well be wrong on this as well, but it is how I am playing it. Maybe Friday was the high, it fits well with many of the EW numbers (give or take a point or 2). I will more than likely cover quicker than my target on any kind of pop or impulse if it happens.
It just so happens that my trend lines from October high to March low converge around this same target and on or around this coming Wednesday. I am expecting the same type of topping action we saw the last week of August. However, I am not ignoring the candle that printed Friday either. When we closed Thursday at the 1044 area, I thought this could be it and took a decent sized (for my trading purposes) short position on SPY and took one in the chin. It could also happen from where my position stands now, but either right or right out, which is how I traded my short position Friday. I took my loss and moved on. I had an order in for 108 calls once the market broke 1046, which filled at 1.20 or 1.25 (I will have to check). It seems some sector rotation might already be occurring, so only time will tell at this point. It just seems time the turn is south at this point.
Many bears are assuming we can’t go higher even after a decent correction, so we should. Sentiment again prevails in my thinking.
Have a good weekend,
Ox
Last sentence in 2nd paragraph should be:
“It just seems this time the turn is south at this point.”
Monday will be telling for the following stocks (all TA based on daily chart):
MMM – fast stochastic appear to rollover along with possible MACD zero-crossover failure, resistance at $75 appear to hold very strong
AXP – fast stochastic appear to rollover, with potential MACD zero-crossover failure, and on top of that, it is hitting the V-spike important level at $34.50 (used to be support in 2008, now resistance)
XOM – fast stochastic rolled over, MACD about to cross to negative side with an apparent negative divergence
CVX – fast stochastic rolled over, with full stochastic appear to follow, possible MACD positive divergence break
JPM – fast stochastic rolled over, full stochastic appear to follow (need confirmation on Monday), possible MACD positive divergence break
CAT – same story with JPM
DD – same story with JPM with potential MACD zero-crossover failure
MCD, BAC – see above
KFT, WMT already in short term down trend.
What I have listed here are some of the big name stocks in DOW 30. I like the DOW because its signal is cleaner (much less fakeouts). It is sitting on a positive divergence infliction point, and the price action on Monday and into opex will determine the timing of P3. My DJIA road map for 2009 currently shows the DOW hitting 6500s by late October.
Do you really think the correction is going to happen on the year anniversary of the Lehman’s disaster? I am in the correction camp but think it may come into opex, IMO.
No nothing major (severe declines) should occur next week. Price action next week merely confirms whether or not a big correction is coming soon. Even in my most doom and gloom road map I even see new highs around first week of October (remember what happened October 3 – 10 last year?). We could be trading at or near DOW 9000 on October 14 and then before you know it we’re at DOW 6500 on October 30.
9000 on the 14th and 6500 on the 30th? A 2500 point drop in 2 weeks? Can you please send me some of what you are smoking this afternoon?
I was in a long meeting this afternoon and maybe my brain got short-circuited
Yeah, I know it’s crazy, but we’re living in crazy times. I hold a small short position into Monday, based on opex manipulation and technicals. I’ll start shorting on September 16 with October calls to hedge for newer highs.
What are you holding into next week Morris?
I was really busy at work this week and I didn’t get to spend much time at all trading. I have 4000 QID and 2000 UCO. I’m thinking that oil will bounce early next week after its big drop today hence the UCO play (which will be a quick scalp). I’ll probably add to the UCO position if it dips under 11.00 on Monday. I plan to hold the QID longer term since I do believe we will have a decent correction at some point in the near future. I also have 200 shares of TBT that I’ve had for months now (another longer term play).
Approximately 50% cash.
Have a great weekend!
Have a great weekend, too.
Interesting you are saying the 16th as well:
http://i399.photobucket.com/albums/pp80/cnest/SPY9.gif
Fritz how high uo does your raoadmap take the dow up before the plunge put.I think we plunge though in November,retail, dollar…
I don’t know how much higher it’ll actually go, but I think it’s not too far away.
After October I don’t know what happens from late November to year end as there are multiple scenarios. It’ll depend on October 30 close.