3:40pm
And the bearl flag turns into a full on rally again haha.. we can technically rally up until the 1046 level before hitting the resistance of the ascending wedge again…
3:25pm
Bear flag on AAPL and other stocks on the 1 minute.
3:08pm
Reversal, like predicted.. this is not necessarily a sustainable sell off.. but I would keep shorting with a tight stop.. and go long on a fib retracement if you want. I love calling the top, feels good.
2:00pm
I’m taking profits on ALL calls and longs that I had into today… I don’t feel comfortable going long here.. with the fact that we are bumping up against the resistance of the wedge (6 month timeframe). I’ll be taking the rest of the day off.. I believe now 1044-1046 is the time to short intraday… we might still go higher but this is a possible target that both woo and I agree on.
1:37pm
I am trading AAPL the way i’m playing it is the following, calander spread: (right now aapl is shooting back up as the market is hitting new highs).
SOLD 165 september puts,
Bought 165 october puts. This means I’m assuming that AAPL holds it’s ground or rally above 165 until september 18th, and then can start falling before october 16th.
1:30pm
I would like to correct myself, on the 23.6% retracement target it comes out to 104.80 NOT 104.58… (i was off by a little), that’s about 1045 on the SPX.
1:23pm
AAPL breaking down, SPY holding ground to the upside.
1:00pm
AAPL 10 minute with a very obvious triangle formation, that will break out one way or another very very soon:
12:45pm
Possible targets for this rally on the SPY 60 minute based on fibs, first one at 1044.50-1046, second in the 1060s. (notice i aligned the 61.8% retrace with the 1014, 38.2% bear market retrace).
12:28pm
We got a little fake out on a lot of stocks below support levels, but right now we look to be forming bottoming candles… UUP (dollar) now red. This market remains resilient and ready to make new highs even if it needs to correct a little bit to lower the overboughtness indicators on the 60 minute time scheme.
12:11pm
USO sitting close to support at around 36.80 with a H&S formation… with that in mind, I do believe we could get a sell off before we hit new highs.. might take a few hours. AAPL forming a bear flag on the 1 minute.
12:09pm
The market is having a hard time breaking through the double top area because the financials and the commodities are not rallying, we would need to see the financials rally a little before this market gets the umph to break to new highs.
11:58am
Ever since steve jobs took the stage yesterday, AAPL has lagged the market, right now it’s been forming a bear triangle with decreasing highs and a flat support at 171.25.. it might breakdown… I would short AAPL and go long SPY as a hedge.
11:23am
Getting a sell off here prompted by a double top formation… if the market want’s to bust through (which it might today) it’ll pick up around 103.60-103.86 range.
10:56am
And here we go.. new highs for the day, we’re eyeing the year highs, just a few points away… Yesterday’s first hour of action gave it away that we were moving much higher to at least the 1044 level.
9:52am
Notice the SPY 10 minute shows a fib 23.6% retrace at 103.. that’s in important level:
9:50am
There is a constant theme in this market. If the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements don’t hold, then we’re probably in for a short term selloff until a bigger 38.2% retracements holds. We keep being held by 38.2% retracements, take a look at JPM 15min:
9:45am
My JPM trade is amazing right now, there’s no doubt it’s one of the weakest financial there, and as long as it stays around the 42 area,i capitalize on a lot of put selling. Basic metals (UYM) falling down here. Remember oil inventories are today.
9:41am
First day that the market is actually flat at the open and is showing a little bit of weakness.. especially from financials. This market will have support on the 1029 and 1025.5 levels. I would be a buyer around the 1025.5 if it ever dips that low. If you have shorts, you may want to be selling some puts once we reach 1025.5 just to hedge yourself into options exp.
12:00am
As show in the video, even though in a regular market today should be a pause day (at least for the start of the day) due to the fact that the red candles are very impulsive and of strong price action downwards with no follow through, that allows the overboughtness indicators (RSI, Stochastic, MACD) to fall away from overbought territory, so that the market can rally to new highs after a few green candles. With that in mind, the market can shove upwards yet again to new highs if it wishes. The next level of horizontal resistance will be the 1044-1046 level, but the top of the ascending wedge is shown as the blue line in our SPX 60 channel:
BOOYAH. new highs.
come on 1045.
I had thought that once new highs were hit, the market would scream higher right away. We have the highs in the NASDAQ and the S&P. All thats left is the emotional indicator, aka the Dow.
there’s a few strong trend lines around here that have been around a while. i think it will scream higher, but it needs to deal with these first.
like i’ve been saying the indicators are still a little higher than i would like and so there could be more consolidation.
1045 could very well hit today.
New highs… I hope it goes up even further tomorrow. (Note: I have not taken any positions yet.)
hit the first trend line.
other trend line is higher at 1044 or so.
now is the best time to short, spx 1042
if 1042 is passed, it’ll go straight to 1045…
I don’t mind for 3 point loss
Are you shorting 1045 for a bonce, or still have 1080′s target?
still have the 1080s target.
but am considering selling at the 1045 area for a possible short term bounce.
after 1045 it gets a little bit more dangerous. even though i would love to see 1088 right away, i don’t nkow if i’ll risk it. i might consider placing a stop or just selling half at the 1045 point. since the avg is around 1044-1046 on the 60 minute, it might overextend it as well (maybe to 1048 or so) while still holding the avg.
we need to get passed this current trend line though at 1042.7 area first though.
“now is the best time to short, spx 1042″
based on what?
Oh let me just regain that trend line in one quick move……..shaking head.
1043 is my resistance line.
yeah the resistance line held.
might not be a bad idea to lock in profits, but i don’t think there’s TOO much to worry about just yet. need to break under the ascending lower trend line first.
it was more 1044… but yeah.. either way.. it’s held now time for a small sell off or a reversal.. one of the two.
still room for a slight up movement.
but it’s definitely a great area to get out and lock in profits.
if it consolidates before rising, it will just decay the options, especially since it’s thursday before opex week.
i’m going to hold a little bit longer to see if that trend line has a chance of breaking, and i’ll stop out if it dips much more.
good job to any that held on to calls since 990s.
Keep us posted – I am still holding with you
it’s going to be an interesting balance anjali because if the rise is very slow, then the decay might eat up any profits from any rises that take forever.
i’m hoping for a nice sudden peak to come after a bit of consolidation to maximize profit, but it’s not a bad idea to lock anything in just in case, it drops a bit first.
so far nothing big to worry about in terms of a fall, but once it starts, it could go to 1033 if it wants.
SPY consolidating since 2 pm …. where can the spike go till ?
I have lots of resistances crossing at 1050-1060 ..
i don’t think it has what it takes to head there by today.
Nice job woo
We’ve hit 99.11 on the SS for GS today…..waaayyyyy Overbought!
there’s a chance that if we dip from this area, that we gap right down to the 1033 area again. just a word of caution.
however, the last rise from 1020 was 16 points, so i think this current rise needs to be 16 points which puts us at 1044 minimum.
got 4000 TZA , average 13.1,
Top 1576.09
Bottom 666.79
1576.09 – 666.79 = 909.3
909.3 x 41.4% = 376.45
666.79 + 376.45 = 1043.24
Still learning about fibonacci %… Isn’t 41.4% an important one?
38.2 is
I can see that the market needs to retrace before the next leg up.
And I think that the next leg up will rally quite strong.
Ok. So are we there yet??? VIX gap filled now and does 1043.56 satisfy the 1044 requirement?? also, today is 43 day of up cycle.
Many indicators i follow tells me we are finally at the end of P2 and P3 starts tomorrow.
Other opinions???
Do you have any range targets on p3?
Are you asking me about P3?
I have a weekly chart that shows two possiblities. One would be a drop to perhaps the high 200′s by the end of 2012 in the same way the market dropped in the 1930′s. The other chart shows a more complex P3 that would bounce probably in the mid 600′s to 700′s. The target would be about the same, but it would take nearly a decade to get there. That would be the Japanese depression parallel. Bottom line is that I am not really thinking about P3 too much for now. Gotta complete P2.
1st leg – ~880
3rd leg ~ 670
5th leg ~ 580
The last target is a wild card at this point.
It could also be as low as 400.But that’s a pretty gloomy scenario and even if i were a bear into that abyss, it wouldn’t be a very “happy ending”.
I don’t think that P2 is complete yet just because it reached 1044. The wave structure points to quite a bit more upside, although we may be due for a small drop here. The next rally should be a third wave of the final wave C up. That third wave should be at least 50 points from wherever it starts (1016?).
could gap down to 1038
Reached 1039 … 20 Ma on 10 min … doji on support … lets see if ths forms a reversal pattern …
Even though we broke out above the most recent high, and out of an ascending triangle formation, I think it’s a bull trap. I’m guessing we correct very soon. We would need a break below 1032 to confirm that. It looks miles away, but these things can turn on a dime.
Even after the breakout, the Decline Volume on the DOW is greater than the Advance Volume. The BKX will end the day in the red, even if just barely.
Hats off to woo for calling the rally.
I won’t be surprised if market close red
It would be hard to drop much below 1035.75 today. Even 1038 has good decent.
decent support, I meant.
it could just as easily gap back up.
fun times.
seems to be forming an H & S though. really anyone’s guess short term.
We have 5 up days.
Friday might be down day?
if 9/11 is a down day, you are letting the terrorists win.
hahaha
If I see one more HS or Bear flag fail I think I’m going to cry!!!!
gap back up…WATCH OUT =O
If at 3:55 PM we’re nearHOD, I’m going 1/2 short.
I get new offerings through my bank Acc e-mailed to me and there are lots of new real estate (commercial) offerings REITS etc etc….??
add 1000 shares sds,
1000 shares dxd
new highs =)
Woo -still holding – what are you planning to do ?
going to bail before closing.
might bail really soon.
no idea what tomorrow morning will bring and rather not risk it.
sold at the very end at the peak.
we’ll see what tomorrow brings.
Nice Woo, pretty much the same thing…..was a lil early on exit 1043.94 (kicking self lol) and bought Oct 103 puts at 2.25 (100 contracts) This may or may not have been smart, but lots of time to work. I see the 1060-1078 area fairly clear now and have a turn date of Sept 16th. Time will tell!
Nice calls and charts thus far
Ox
i think that’s a good move. if 1060s-1080s hits, it’s going to be fairly fast, and then there should be a drop into october.
technically, it might just even drop now. i’m not going to hold calls and find out. all cash for now.
Hey – just saw this …. I sold my Sept calls at the close too
for a nice 85% profit
What are you seeing for tomorrow now ? If we move down – what should we be watching for ?
I am very much watching the weekly chart I posted, but upon narrowing it down my targets aren’t that high for this move. Looking at my daily SPY I expect some movement upwards with a turn around the 16th (Wednesday). Options Expiration coming right after, so am giving myself some leeway of 2-3 days on this turn. We could push up as far as Woo’s 1080′s but daily is showing me that it’s not quite that high but close. I will hold my 103 puts and add when feasible, and if necessary.
Today has been like every other Thursday with job numbers…Bullish! Regardless of the outcome, with this rally, you can pretty much count on that. The B move (I think this is A of ABC correction personally) will trap just enough bears for the next push higher, to allow the adoration of America and the press. Once the holiday season is over, it will more than likely be back to business as usual and what every bear out there is expecting (to some degree anyway).
Good luck and keep it GREEN,
Ox
haha you owe me a beer anjali! =) glad to hear you got in on that NICE profit.
I’m going to sit in cash a bit. the market actually could dip a significant amount depending on which gaps it hits and which H&S formations play out. it could take us down to the bottom of the channel again. It could just as likely head back higher.
I’m going to wait for a bit more market direction, and consider getting back into calls on a solid 1046 break, or on a huge dip, take a small call position with tight stops.
Absolutely !!!
Even though it was 3 contracts … tiny account like I said
… however it was the first time I made so much on my options… in the past 10% or breakeven with bigger losses (50%+) … so am thrilled …. also stuck to my analysis and in the background was “Woo is still bullish” 
How can I buy you your beer – in Atlanta any time soon ???
If there is no selloff and market ends in the green tomorrow, we’re heading much higher.
With opex week coming up, odds favor a pullback tomorrow, though.
Is 9/11 generally an up day in the mkts?
Last year it went up.
*fireworks*
I think we’ll get 1046 tomorrow, and then a fib retrace of this rally from Sept 3rd.
In TZA by EOD at 12.96.. Stops above SPX 1046 equivalent..
Bought SPY 103 OCT puts since market had already closed by the time I saw that we are in the 1044 range.
If we go up higher tomorrow at opening to 1046.. I’ll load up on some SDS.
if you look at today’s chart for AAPL and GS, there is huge sell volume before market close. Even today is not the top, I believe the top is very close
http://quicktakespro.blogspot.com/2009/09/i-can-make-it-say-whatever-i-want.html
Please do not fight this scam government, as the Fed along with Goldmansucks et al will put another $11 trillion into the banksters which will find its way into the market. This will continue through the elections in Nov. 2010 and beyond. Until the sheeples wake up which I don’t think they will, this market is going to a minimum of 1200 S&P and 11,500 Dow. That’s the minimum and probably up to the all time highs set in Nov. 2007 by Nov. 2010. Bottom line is the banksters own this country and the government e.g Congress et al is owned by the banksters.
Unfortunately, you are correct. The dollar will be proportionately less now when the dow is at 12k. Hedge with other currencies, because if the Dow goes to 12k, the MSCI is going to be huge.
I think the H&S on the financials still looks decent.
In RWM if market gaps up in the AM.
Besides being on the the top portion of the bearish rising wedge in the indicies, we just hit 1044. We have not taken out this number yet. Closed right on it. 1044 is the worst case number for the 4th wave of the 3rd wave interpretation. Plus Woo has explained the 1044-46 importance.
We also closed on the the early october resistance line:
http://chart.ly/nyfknm
The UUP closed right above a descending trendline support and a previous low support:
http://fsc.bz/XP
Besides that,, how about taking the markets down Sep 11th.. No one expects that,, specially after making new highs…
Nonetheless,, if we take out 1046 on the 60 min,, I’m covering my TZA
So much for the dollar overnight here, futures however still managing to hold down despite both $$ breakdown and rise in Asia. Japan GDP revision not that good. I would note on the side of the nay-sayers on this whole correction hypothesis, and believe me I am a bear and want to be bearish here, it seems like we have had a continual increase in the “top” around here. Since I have been here I have seen an unwillingness to acknowledge the H&S was busted when it was busted at around 900, then the interpertation that 950/955 was going to halt this, then 1000 top, then 1014 and the 38.2% retrace, then 1034…. so while I want to believe this 1044/1046 thing, it does seem as though we have heard this tale before.
That is usually,, when it tops…
… lol
You are right though.. picking tops is for fools… I’m merely playing the 1044/46 bounce… 2 S&P points is nothing.. I will cut my losses very quickly..
Especially when its almost 400 points ago….