Yes, I am posting a mini rant here that has been a little cleaned up for ST readers (to feel a full rant read Tom Brokaw Can Kiss My Butt). IMO this is a really tough point in the market right now. You have the bears all (rightfully) screaming how bad things are and then you have GS throwing out upgrades like candy. Is this the end of 2 of 1 of P3 and we have a 3 of 1 in our sights? Is this 2 of C of P2 up? What is an investor to do? Really tough point right here. One thing for sure, nut cuttin time is uppon us and we’ll know for sure in a week or so which count is right.
A simple glance at the weekly indicators combined with the P/E multiples of the SPX (and the plethora of other financial and economic issues) and you get that dizzy feeling like you are standing on a girder about 1,000 feet up with no safety rope or net. All it will take is one stiff wind and you are toast.
So Shanky, what’s the problem? Why can’t you figure out which way we should go? Well, GS and the Fed and the Treasury and our government are the problem. You see the reflation trade has been blowing smoke up this economy’s butt for over a year now and has created nothing but optimism of a V shaped recovery. This is what you firmly believe if you are a CNBS disciple., yet that is not reality IMO.The TARP funds have been nothing but a prop for the still IMO insolvent banks. The TARP funds were a waste of good money being thrown down the rabbit hole of economic fantasy.
Why bother to reflate the bubble that got you all of the problems in the first place? So the insolvent banks can put on a pump and dump and take all your money so they can survive. Who gives a shit about you or your future, you little worm undisciplined ignorant investor? The banks are the big boys and they need to survive. You dear investor are an expendable asset in this shell game.
IMO America has been taken to the bank by first Paulson and his fear mongering and second Bernanke, Timmay and the administration. Here is the deal and Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker loves to harp on this. The banks made the bad loans and are not having to pay the price – YOU ARE. You can’t have it both ways. You can’t take from the poor and give to the rich and make it work. You see the consumer is 70% of GDP and without the consumer having jobs, credit, savings and some sort of manageable debt ratio, it all fails. You see, they sucked us all in (well most of us) to the cheap credit must own a home inflated bullshit rape of American wealth. Did they give a shit about you or me. Hell no! This is where fractional reserve lending comes in.
In Ron Paul’s absolutely must read End The Fed you get to know the history of the Fed, fractional reserve lending and how and why we got where we are today. You see those greedy mofo’s wanted it all. They wanted to die with the most toys and win the game. Problem is the game is still going. They screwed the game for everyone and now YOUR government is basically siding with the banksters and saving their collective asses and leaving us out to dry.
This is bullshit and leads us back to why P3 will happen and any other count is a bunch of crap. The pump and dump is nearing an end. P/E multiples are exponentially high. Insider sells are at a 95 to 5 ratio. 40% of mortgages are underwater, CRE will crash, unemployment will continue to grow and is not being factually reported, the consumer is dead, blah, blah, blah and CNBS will lead you to believe the Haynes bottom is in and a V shaped recovery is all but guaranteed. WAKE UP SHEEPLE! You dear reader/investor have to make a choice here and soon. Do you feel lucky? Will the manipulators carry out the scam of 1,000 years and continue the HFT front running and market prop to even further unsustainable heights or does it turn here? Is this P3 or P2? We’ll know in a week or so which count is right.
Sorry I can’t answer the question for you, but I have done really well siding with the manipulators. I still believe we are in P2 and have one more leg up to C. Maybe the mutual funds have enough in them to get one more good QE statement out of the market. Maybe there are a few more upgrades left or GS will create a new “super buy” recommendation to garner a little more room for further upgrades. Maybe Ben will trump the dollar down to complete its wave count one last time. I have wanted a 1050 to 1121 top in early October, so I will stick to the call. BUT I will also be playing it as the market top is in. I am not playing this or any speculated run up. I am short in SDS at this time and looking to add to shorts. I do have a plan and stops in place if the trade should go bad, but I will not chase this move any higher at this time.
GL trading,
Shanky
Please visit my blog if you like. Click here to go to Shanky’s blog
Appreciate the rant (although I prefer the unadulterated version) which summarizes well the many problems we as investors face. While it is obviously frustrating to be so absolutely powerless in any individual effort to fight the Bezzle, I have confidence that foreign investors with much bigger pockets than mine are beginning to see the shell game for what it is and are starting to take action. Ben & Company simply don’t have the resources to maintain this fiction for much longer.
“we’ll know for sure in a week or so which count is right. ”
I am so sick and tired of hearing this.
This is a saying I have heard for the past 6months!
And we be hearing the same crap next week, “we’ll know for sure in a week or so which count is right. “
No Uszly, this time is different. We will know this time, as described above, the counts here are very clear and the P3ers will be back to the drawing boards and the ABC P2 count will remain intact about 7 points from now. I get your frustration dude. Thus, I rely on TA first (Trust The Charts) and EWT as a backup.
Shut up, market is wrong and u r right?
get long and admit u r broke and wrong.
Yes! He is saying the market is wrong and he is right! In fact that is what you yourself are intrinsically saying every time you make a trade! If you truely do believe in the efficient market hypothesis then making any claim to know the future movement of the market is a fools errand – including longs! If all availible information is already priced into the market then there is no point to speculating. Get out of our trading blog and find one for value investors, TA is based on tge idea that the market is wrong sometimes.
Bottom line, EWT is no more useful than astrology. You cannot predict future price movement using EWT. It did not work for Ralph Nelson Elliott or anybody else. Most EWT devotees don’t even agree which wave we are currently in.
Thus- trust the charts as Craig always taught us to do. TA first.
A Voice From The Choir
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-citizens-starting-rebel-against-wall-street
The problem with trusting the charts is that the TA/charting can be biased. There are people who posted chart after chart here for months since early March showing why the market was on the brink of a collapse. After the charts were posted, people would oooo and ahhh over how beautiful they were yet they turned out to be consistently wrong. In fact, they were so consistently wrong that one could trade very successfully by doing the exact opposite of what they suggested (and I did).
To be clear, I absolutely appreciate the effort that anyone makes to help other people here, even if the effort turns out to be of no help at all. However, trusting the majority of the charts that were posted here over the past 6 months would have caused one to miss an incredibly huge opportunity to make money on the long side.
So, the real question is whose charts should we trust? At the end of any given market day, you can surf the net and find both bullish and bearish charts drawn up on the same data. The only answer i can give with any certainty is that one should be VERY wary of a bearish chart created by someone who is openly bearish. Likewise, one should be VERY wary of a bullish chart created by someone who is openly bullish.
Best of luck to all!
My charts of course! As of yesterday I am the only one left standing (or the local circle of sites we all tend to visit) that has not called a top. I even took down EWI.
I agree. Tech charts and the like (AAPL esp) have formed wedge after rising wedge and faked out everyone. My secret – never bet against the house playing with a loaded boot. Buying into manipulation theme and not the hype has been a winner for me.