2:46pm
I see tons of H&S on the 10 minutes of the financials here.. we might get a little bit of a breather today and maybe early tomorrow. 1029 is going to be strong support though.
2:22pm
My belief is that we still move one shove higher between 1046-1090 at the top of the rising wedge. With that in mind, i’ll be waiting for this short term sell off to continue and add bullish positions at the 103 , and 102.35 levels . Theses are 23.6% and 38.2% retraces of the last 4 day rally. Financials sold off a little bit, but nothing dramatic.
2:08pm
2 pm reversal time here, and we are getting a little bit of sell off, as we form a double top area. The Nasdaq having a hard time breaking through the 50% retracement after 4 straight days of green. Beige book..
1:08pm
For those who trade consantly, i really recommend using options to hedge yourself, because you can still make money when you’re wrong. For example, I’m short JPM at 41.8$, but since I bought calls to hedge myself on the upside, i’m only down 0.2%, and if you include the fact that i also sold puts at 39$ (capping my upside until september at the 39$ mark), I’m actually up 0.4%.
11:40am
Some things to keep in mind: As most of you know, options have an expiration date, and the time value in each option decreases faster and faster as we get closer to that date. The weekends count as well, so options lose their value over the weekend. But what you may not know, is that the options actually discount for that as the week progresses (i.e. the closer you are to the end of the week, the faster the decline of time value to account for the weekend). Therefore, if you’re a seller of options, do it before thursday, if you’re a buyer of options do it either monday/tuesday or in the last few minutes on friday (if you’re okay with holding over the weekend).
11:30am
With financials on top this market can rally to new highs… i have bought a nice call spread in the last 20 minutes of trading… and sold some really far out puts for september, and sold some far out calls for october. My JPM shorts has a 44$ calls that have gained value and sold 39$ puts. With that in mind, i might think of taking profits on the calls very soon, they have helped cut my loses substantially by about 95%.
11:15am
A little help with people with options. If you have an option that has gone bust. Say you bought SPY 100 strike puts.. and you feel that this market is going to keep going higher and your puts are almost worthless now. Don’t just cover them. Use them as leverage, to Sell to open a 99 strike put, so you can at least make a few cents on premium and you can hedge yourself, just in case the market shoots down.
11:02am
SPX60 minute channel formations:
11:00am
The market is up again, but JPM is still red… and financials are not enjoying themselves. Is today potentially another reversal day? Maybe the beige book has something to say about that.
1:21am
A lot of data comes out before market open, even though this data tends not to be market moving, any bad news will help this market form a gap lower, which means we will be forming an island gap (where yesterday’s trading day was has a gap before it and after it) and that’s very bearish. Any really good news, will send the market above the 103 SPY and then we’re due for new highs. Interesting day up ahead. We also have the beige book at 2pm (that will be a market mover).
anyone play DRYS too? should see 7 today or tomorrow
this current 1035 high isn’t going to hold.
market still needs more consolidation to bring the indicators lower though.
maybe a day’s worth. maybe i’ll sell calls at the 1040 level, try to buy back in on a small dip, and sell off again at 1046.
What are you looking at to say that? Volumn?
macd, rsi, couple other indicators.
So you are still expecting to reach 1040 before a pull down … right Woo ?
yeah, maybe a little above 1040 now.
but there are retraces all around here…
1029, and a little below. might even see 1026.
stop using those. Volitile times….they are no good right now. Watch volume.
my res line shows 1043, but I am not suprised that we sold off before – the early bird catches the worm.
Not sure where the RIFIN keeps getting it’s fuel? Unreal…..JPM just upgraded GS while GS is pennies off its 52 week high?
Yeah, I’ve been watching that.
Didn’t GS just upgrade JPM.
You scratch my back….
Oh your itchy?
“You’re” sorry….
grin.
Not too bad. Skitters up here got frostbitten a week ago.
I am thinking of averaging down my SDS shares… do you think it’s good time to add SDS @ 42.2- 42.3 range?
Thanks!
if you plan on covering them today or early tomorrow, maybe it is a good time.. but i do think we move to new highs.
So you think it’s time to unload. vs loading them.
Huh… pretty big ouch here!
I think it’s an intraday trade not a 1 week trade.
That’s how the financials play it. We used to call that a circle jerk… But it’s the taxpayers that will be left holding the rag.
Please excuse the vulgarity, but this whole turn around in financials is as disgusting as it is offensive.
PS…Beige Book. 9MINS!
3m
Wow, 2 pm reversal is in GLD and SLV as well !
I am happy to have shorted the S&P right after the beige book. It looks like we might get a bit of a selloff, but I’m not sure it will last or may not be good for more than a few points. I have seen this story before. The beige book itself was overall bullish, so that is not why we might get a selloff. We might get a selloff because a selloff is overdue, way overdue. It would make a nice double top.
If we end the day red, then I will strongly believe we will see a selloff in the coming days. If not I will probably cover my short and wait for a confirmation.
1029 is the 38% retrace of the rise from 1020-1039.
be careful bears, this isn’t a bear sign, this is just a retrace so far. could easily just start rising from here.
1029 needs to break at the least, but it held for now.
not good for shorts at the moment. if beige book news wasn’t enough to pull it down more, the market might go back up and stay positive for the day. then they news will skew everything to reflect the market movement north.
bears need to push harder or there’s going to be buying into close.
Low volume day………
Tomorrow jobless claim data
See the MF on the 10min SPY. It tells the story. Now watch the MF on the 1min spy…as long as it is pointin down…and below 50….where not going up.
WOW, did you just see that!!! I’m all in on SPY puts now. Look out below….
Think she’s going lower
i think the last retrace is around 1025. bears need to break south of that first.
anyway the beige report confirmed weakness (in important areas!) such as corporate real estate and credit supply…the stuff about manufactoring doesn’t matter (too many gov programs).
above 1029 retrace
consolidating above the retrace. 1029 defended on the 60 minute.
bears need to be careful here.
1032 is 50% retrace of that strong move lower..looking to see if it can break that.
might just consolidate here into closing.
tomorrow should be a really interesting day.
holdin your calls ?
she’s hitting the 20 ma 15min on the upside…thus, she’s about to timbeerrrrr
i don’t think it’ll do much.
the 60 minute 20ma is 1023ish, and we’re way above that. the 20ma 15 minute will probably end up serving as support instead of resistance.
i hear you, but she’s also broken out of that weird ascending triangle/channel 15min
plus would you want to be long when obama declares universal health care tonight?
haha that’s true. if universal healthcare goes through, it could send all the health insurance stocks to hell.
we could see a good drop into tomorrow. that was a nasty double top without any clear north direction or south direction afterwards.
15 minute can be really useful because it’s not as short term as the 1,5,10 minutes, which can change at a moment’s notice, but still give you good solid trade position because it’s grounded well. also doesn’t take forever like the 60 minute.
uh ohs….
will 1033 area break yet again?…
if it does…WATCH OUT…
ok…at this point…it might be too soon to say this…and it might bite me in the ass later….
but if it consolidates above this area, or rises even more into closing, it doesn’t matter what news comes out, this sucker is going to break out…
or not…
alright the 60 minute hasn’t shown a solid 1033 break….
going to be really interesting…
ah well that sucked, i was really expecting a sell into the close….until tomorrow…
we closed above 1033, what do you think?
Woo – when you say solid break, you are looking for a 2 candle break ?
2 candle break would be nice, but generally on the 60 minute chart, it moves on avgs over the 60 minutes. if the avgs are solidly above 1033 then that’s a good sign, right now, i would say it’s almost sitting on it, which is almost the worst place for it to sit for anybody holding into tomorrow, because the 1033 long term fib retrace is neither support or resistance.
this end movement is still bullish, but it doesn’t mean there can’t be a drop before a rise. also doesn’t mean that it can’t just fall to oblivion from here either.
i say all this movement up here means that we’re heading higher. i still say 1046, and 1088 is still alive.
I just closed the FAS position (800 shares at an average of 74.50) at 76.15; +2.21% with 1320 in profit neglecting trading fees. Whew!!!!!!!
I’ve been out for most of the afternoon. My SCO buy order at 16.00 missed by a nickel.
Well done.
My FAS JAN 55 PUT order still hasn’t been filled… Even if it doesn’t get filled, I won’t lose anything, though.
Congrats … am sure that is a relief !!
It certainly is. I didn’t deserve to make money on that trade.
so…was that close bullish or bearish? heavy red 3&5 minute candles into the close, but did we close above critical support?
Never thought I would have to cover before close today. I did to break even. The bears didn’t stand a chance!
this is all i have to say:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/wooew6-monthoption-2?context=user
north of light green trend line, backtested it. I’ll post my 1088 chart also, which explains the major drop out of the channel i drew.
BULL
El maestro Woo..
Don’t know how you do it… Just know your analysis is Top notch..
Never bought into this P3 talk.. Used the drop to buy the dips ‘Oscar styleee’..
Waiting for that 1080′s.. Be sure to take a peak at the 1090′s gap..
market should go up till Friday, Friday is 911, market will not go down on Sep 11.
Question
Unable to access stockcharts.com for past 30min,
anyone else have same problem ?
Damn, 3hrs latter and still stockcharts down.
I think I figured out how to post a chart. I just sent this to a trader friend of mine, and thought I would share it here as well. This view is merely my sentiment as to where SPY could go in the short term. I found the last 3 candles to be setting up in an interesting perspective as well. I have a concern about the UUP Weekly trendline having been touched today, but then again, trendlines are meant to be broken. I always get a better perspective when starting long term and narrowing things down as my time frames get smaller. Here is what I see on the weekly:
http://tinyurl.com/nw528h
Happy Trading,
Ox
OX – this is opening up gmail … can you please link again …
Sorry about that, I re-posted on next topic. It should work fine this time.
Ox