4:00pm
Another incredibly low volume day, but the price action was bullish yet again, i will have a video out tonight.
3:53pm
Ascending wedge formation on the 5 minute SPY.. that could be bearish if we break down the 102.80 level again… or the 1002.50 level on the ES.
3:37pm
ES 5 minute has a beter picture of the market.. we have been trading in a triangle, we are potentially breaking out of it.. lets see where we end the day.
2:16pm
The Dollar looks like it might be bottoming out here.. with an inverse H&S on the 5 minute, with it going up, oil should lose ground and we might see the sell off begin, but we need the UUP to be up above 23$
2:10pm
We keep failing to break the 61.8% retracement back to the downside… we find support and bounce.. we do have an inverse H&S on the 1 minute SPY, and one potentially on the 10 minute…
1:49pm
AAPL breaking down it’s 5 minute H&S intraday. The USO closing for the first time (2 consecutive closes) under it’s 20 SMA. Financials weak now, JPM forming a topping candle after hitting the 38.2% retracement of todays sell off…. we could see a sell off here. Be at the look out for the 102.40-102.50 level on the SPY.. a break of that, means reversal.
11:26pm
We are back in an ascending channel, the question is where do we top out? SPX 60minute:
11:23pm
We’ve had a nice rally in the AMED calls that we bought a few days ago… taking them off for a hefty profit. Another position that we have on that is up today is the October PUTS on STEC… i will be holding them a little longer.
10:47am
Financials on the 60 minute could be forming the right shoulder of the H&S now… they can technically go up until the 14.70 level before they decide to fall, but now is a good time to start thinking about the downside potential.
10:44am
Market is remaining resilient, but the financials are weaker in perspective. Again, I don’t have puts on JPM, I have a very good hedge that’s working out very well. I am short JPM, with an equivalent amount of way out of the money calls + selling the 39$ puts. That way I make money as long as JPM falls to around the 39$ level or holds its ground, or gains ever so slightly. Any huge rally of more than 5-10% will make me lose money in JPM, but that is ALSO hedged by my calls and the fact that i sold puts. That said, my profits are capped if JPM falls to 39$ by september.
10:02am
This is a commodities driven rally, not a financial driven rally… I wonder how sustainable it is. But that said, I want you guys to notice how the sell offs in the past have been quick with no follow through, and the buying has been slow but eventually takes us to new highs… we need a bunch of down days that aren’t quick and just lead to more follow through for me to get more bearish here.
1:01am Here’s a 30 minute SPY (I am having difficulties posting it for some reason):
VIX up, SPY up…Cobra says this means high chance markets continue up tomorrow no?
Actually if we finish green on both, higher chance red close tomorrow
Financials startig to participate .
I was thinking that the triangle on the 5 minute chart would take us higher by a bit to 1028.
it could very well!
you have a good sense of humor woo, personally i have profited very much from your guidance,
Master WOO!! we miss your updated charts. Please post a link !!!
Thanks much!!
i keep forgetting to do this.
was out all weekend for a friend’s bachelor party.
i can’t do it at work because coworkers and bosses are walking by, and doodling on a screen long term won’t be good for my quarterly review. and at home the misses nags and wants attention.
i’ll try and get an update up tonight. wish me luck.
good luck with the misses
Besides, if I knew, do you think I would share it with you people? =)
lol
More and more of us are taking the Cramer approach to calling the market. Make short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term calls on the direction of the market everyday, sometimes bullish, sometime bearish, and you would be able to claim you have called the market correctly regardless of outcome.
I just continually roll the dice a get lucky.
sooooo….
ended at 1025 which is the 50 fib towards 1045.
strong support and consolidation above the 1020 level.
fibs to watch:
if we dip, we could h&s towards 1016
if we rise
1029-1030 – fib projection to 1045
1033 – long term retrace from P1
1040 – there is a long term trend line sitting around here right now
1045 – short term fib projection completion, last fib projection towards 1088
nap time.
Nap time? Oh, you’re west coast like me.
If the 1016 works out, it could form the handle on the cup and handle formation, which in elliott wave speak would be a wave 2.
yeah i’m on the west coast. 6 am mornings kill me…
Anybody ever hear of the term ‘bearish railroad tracks pattern”? It’s a new one on me.
That’s an ominous Doji posted on the SPY daily today. A gap down tomorrow or black candle could create an abandoned baby/evening doji star which are both pretty strong bearish reversal patterns.
Also, interestingly if you draw a trendline on SPY chart from the high in early January to the high on Aug. 7, that line runs right into the high we posted today on the SPY. Should serve as restance, and could bounce off of it pretty hard to downside if we don’t get through it…maybe it’s the right shoulder of the H&S.
Anyway, all speculation obviously. ALSO…anyone have an explanation for why the VXX collapsed today and created a new 52wk low while the VIX saw a 1.5% gain!?