– September 7, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

12:00am
The market is closed today for labor day, but you guys are welcome to share your thoughts below.

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Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.

13 Comments

kenjisan

Posted September 7, 2009 at 8:28 AM

wha~t? huu~h? how come the dow future is unchanged, the market is undecided.

ok sorry just kidding, just wanted to be the first to post.
Lan P

Posted September 7, 2009 at 8:44 AM

Idan, where do you see the market going this week base on Fri action?
Sam

Posted September 7, 2009 at 11:20 AM

Future is up huge, It seems we will see a huge gap up open on Tuesday. I think big boys are in the process of selling thier shares to small investors. What thay have been doing is take advantage of the low volume to take the market up after each sell off and then make another sell off. I think it would take some time for them to complete this process. In each time they may be able to sell just a small percentage of thier shares, so they need to take this market up again to sell another portion of thier stocks.
- Ed
  
  Posted September 7, 2009 at 12:04 PM
  
  have you ever considered the market goes UP because more folks are buying, than selling?
  - Bawney Fwank
    
    Posted September 7, 2009 at 2:35 PM
    
    Sure, more retail investors are buying than selling, as they were late in ’01 and ’07 before every major decline. Corporate insider selling has been at a record 30x insider buying.
- Nada
  
  Posted September 7, 2009 at 12:18 PM
  
  I agree Sam. Notice how we have one day big drops with no follow through?They don’t want to spook the sheep with a protacted decline (not yet).
  - morris
    
    Posted September 7, 2009 at 12:41 PM
    
    Who is “they”?
LewDog

Posted September 7, 2009 at 11:47 AM

I agree with your theory, Sam. They have pumped the idea of buy the dips in order to make the slow bleed happen. Plus, keep in mind that next year Cap. Gains tax will be much higher, so profits need to be taken this year.
rocky_40

Posted September 7, 2009 at 1:22 PM

Excellent interview with Bob Pretcher. Worth listening to
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0905-3a.asx
rocky_40

Posted September 7, 2009 at 1:35 PM

One of the things I watch carefully is how the market responds to news. Last Friday, the major news was unemployment. If you include the previous months revision, the numbers were worse than expected. Sure enough, the market started selling off in the morning and then reversed course and went up. This to me is a bullish sign. The Asian markets followed through with a bullish day on Monday.

In the short term, I am quite bullish. I would expect that at some point, the market will reverse directions. Will it happen at S&P 1020, 1050 or 1080? Its very hard to forecast that. I leave it to players who are much smarter than me.

Its hard to read volume numbers on a Friday before Labor day. We will get a better read on Tuesday. Based on what I am seeing, I am expecting an up day tomorrow
- ITMS
  
  Posted September 7, 2009 at 11:22 PM
  
  So why are short at ITMS?
comics/geekgod

Posted September 7, 2009 at 10:51 PM

Futures up 50 dow in asia on weaker oil and dollar. Gold flat but everyone is pumping stocks
and gold is the new anti equity trade.
Shorting this market is just feeding the quants at GS. Screw em, no more shorts, time to buy
PM’s and watch them squirm. GS & JPM are short massive amounts of gold contracts, the fed
has been lending the gold reserves for their shorting.
China has recalled its gold and sliver holdings from london and NY for storage in hong Kong,
now watch the short cover rally in gold and gold equities catch the bastards in the same game they
pulled on shorsellers in the SPY.

GS & JPM may be in need of another bail out to cover their losses in being short the GLD. bullion
and PM equities. Watch the dollar dive as peep figure out what is going on.

Lets see how long the buy equities rally continues when it high frequency vs itself and no shorts
to squeeze.
I smell another ‘no short rule’ coming down the pike to protect the high freques.
- prsel
  
  Posted September 8, 2009 at 8:29 AM
  
  Wow. Great insight. A year ago, read somewhere gold is going to 1500, didn’t say due to inflationary concerns, so like you said, it’s a short squeeze. Why does GS and JPM get away with these naked (assuming puts) on Gold? Even though
  last Friday, the SPY was up with low volume, got to trade with the trend. Going to buy some longs today if the charts work out for AGU, WYNN, CSIQ, RIMM.
  China up over 3% today, good play for SOHU and BIDU as well.