3:46pm
Or not.. this market is more resilient… it looks a lot like 2 weeks ago when the market reversed it’s 3.5% losses and rallied to new highs.. i’m too anxious holding all shorts here.. JPM i’m still good for, but not SPY.
3:12pm
My intuition is that we sell off very very strongly into the close… but hey, i have my stops… i either lose about 1.5-2% total since my shorts yesterday or I make money, but at least i know that i can’t lose more than that.
2:41pm
Despite the last 10 minute sell off, this market is still not convinced to go lower… i suggest moving stops (if you can) to winning positions wherever possible. We hit the 20 SMA 10 minute..
2:27pm
The USO was very close to breaking out and got shoved back in with a huge red candle right at the end. USO should sell off with this… and hopefully the SPY.
2:10pm
The bigger financials have been breaking down somewhat.. looking at GS and JPM here.. USO in red, but no conviction selling on the SPY yet… even if we do get it, in order for me to feel comfortable holding S&P short into this weekend i want to see us below 101.20.
2:02pm
We are at the 2 pm reversal territory, I think everyone can see the H&S that is forming on the SPY 5 or 10 minute… but you have to keep your stops close, this H&S can actually go bust due to the fact that shorters don’t want to be short into the 3 day weekend. IF, the market does sell off in the last 30 minutes of the session, there could be grim ramifications for Tuesday’s trading day.
12:51pm
101.90 is my last short with stops above 102.20.. and then i’m out of the trade. Again rememeber we started shorting in the 1030s, we’re playing this move down to its fullest extent.
12:48pm
AAPL is a great short right now, not because you would necessarily be making money but because it’s so clear where your stops need to be, above the red line:
AAPL 30 H&S:
12:40pm
Technicaly the SPY 30 minute is showing us that we can still move higher and be “safe” as bears, but I don’t think you want to wait that long. I do expect to go short if we ever reach the upper bound of my descending channel but I have stops in different places just in case. I want to also point out that this is a tech rally not a financial or energy rally:
12:33pm
Let’s not forget that there still is a chance that the market has not topped out yet and that we might be forming an bullish channel, take a look at SPY 60 min:
12:30pm
Here we go, i’m adding to shorts hoping this is the top right now.. 61.8% retrace on the SPY, adding to JPM as well here.
10:25am
Possible topping target for today is 101.30-101.35 which is the 50% retrace of the last big move lower and the 10 minute 200 SMA.
10:23am
In my opinion the market can be topping out very soon, today migth be the last up day:
XLF daily showing H&S
2:53am
Hey guys,
The market mover is going to be simply the jobs number, what happens in the futures now is of no importance. My estimate of the jobs number for august is a little better than the street.
I believe august will be the last time, in a while, that the jobs number actually improves, but I think that we will see between 205-210 K lost jobs, compared to the 225 K consensus. What i’m not sure, is how the market will react to these jobs numbers at all. We did have a rally at the end of the day so a better than expected number will not necessarily yield a rally. My guess is that we could dip initially on these numbers in the futures, and then recover as the market trades throughout the day before a 3 day weekend. However, if we break 99.60 on the SPY, be very very careful, this market can surprise to the downside. If the jobs number comes below 200K we will probably see an extension of today’s rally.
Market going up hard in a few mins!!!!
Define hard? Looks like good resistance at 102.60. and 9500. It rallied +90 on benign jobless. Do you thing it breaks out of those limits.
If we break this 102 level 103.25 is next…as I type I see the bull flag that was….having trouble. EUR/JPY was killing it at the time the bull flag broke out.. just my thoughts…..
Wow, QID is less than a buck away from its 52-week low.
Perfect! I’d like to see this tape running completely parabolic towards EOD.
martin, still short at 1018?
EvilSpeculator’s new chart:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/2009-09-04_puts.png
make sure to place stops above that last retrace. with all the swiftness of the market these days, if the market decides to just overshoot that last 61 retrace and take off, it’s going to be a rough ride. listen to idan’s recommendation of having stops above 1022 if your are buying puts.
That’s exactly what I did- stops at SPX 1022. Out to run errands. Let the market decide my fate.
Good advice to be safe. I’m not buying options, although that’s what EvilSpeculator does.
I’m trying to figure out if the last two days made a cup and now we need to form a handle. Also if the drop from 1039 was too sharp for the cup and handle formation to be valid.
Chart pattern? Are you scoffing or serious. I watched him for the last time.
Ok Idan, I’m with you… SPY at 101.9. Bought another 2000 SDS. stops in.
Bull flag GS…10m
VIX target?
24??
50 ma at 1012.98
does that signify resistance?
support
Got to go to work…..hold it under 101.8 while I’m gone!
bears need to bring this down fast because we’ve had 2 hours of consolidation above the 50ma. have to put up a fight.
bulls are holding the line…
Idan, why would a sell off in the last 30 minutes be grim for Tuesday? By grim, do you mean the market will get into the 976-987 range?
Yeah, it would justify a new sell off.. that’s because it means that the shorts are confident in holding positions over a 3 day weekend… but i’m not sure that’s goign to happen..
A lesser sell-off into EOD would simply be day longs getting out of their position for the long weekend aka profit taking and would signify nothing going into next week. concur?
SPY sell off started… let’s see if it will close in 101.2-101.3 range.
60 min is owned by neither bear or bull….
avg wise, we’re still above the 50ma, but they’re keeping it below 50ma currently.
could go either way, and might move really fast once it starts…
1013.4 is the 38 retrace of the whole rise, and we’re above that too.
we have solid marks above the 50ma.
this might take off into closing…
yep
1014 is the 38 retrace of the whole plunge from 1576 to 667 and we’re currently below that, so it will not be easy to decide what might happen here.
http://i31.tinypic.com/1z36vpt.png
0.0% 667
11.8% 774
23.6% 882
38.2% 1014 <==***
50.0% 1122
61.8% 1229
76.4% 1361
88.2% 1469
100.0% 1576
1012.65 50ma
bears are finally putting up a fight.
H&S time?
I’ll be surprised if we close under 1010.
60 min is bull still…
how much money is truely on the sidelines both personal and corporate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9buIYsYzsQ
InTheMoneyStocks video.
volume is dead.
that’s the scariest time…
i agree with idan’s post.
if you’re long, place stops around 1012,
if you’re short, you might want to consider locking in at least half your profits soon, that support above the 50ma is not good, especially if it stays there going into the weekend.
I just loaded up on some VXX….I’m not good enough to bet on which way this is going, but I do know we will have volitility
byebye h&s yet again…
Bad place to enter shorts if we’re not already short?
One hour to go to pick up long term puts for cheap. I’m entering at 3:55 PM, 10% in long term puts.
Any thoughts on taking a position in VXX, with traders returning to the market in full force next week.
Dallas Fed chief sees ‘deflationary risk’ as pre-eminent
i say 1013.4 area holds.
looks like it cracked a little hehe. but it’s ok. won’t break on the 60 minute avg.
anybody believe when i say we’ll c 918 first
I say 912.
we’ll see 918 (or 912) before we see what?
I think we see 912, then 950 then head back south.
I haven’t covered any shorts. I just don’t think this rally is the real deal. The volume is about half of a normal day on the S&P. My bet is that Tuesday we selloff, maybe into close.
great day for a short covering due to long weekend. would not be surprised to see a gap up at the open on tuesday.
i think the pullback will be a 1 day event.
Just opened two positiions – 500 shares of VXX and 1000 shares SDS.
if we are going to 1080s…this could be the backtest of the fib projection area, before taking off…
even though we’re above supports of 50ma and the 1013.4 fib,
doesn’t mean anything.
we really won’t know anything till next week.
TA without volume always is difficult and lacks conviction.
918 b4 we find out if its going to hold or come crashing down and forming the right shoulder
on a hs ima short at 918 cover if it forms and then go long AGIAN ANTICIPATING ANOTHERR
FAKE OUT hs
918 seems like a very long way from here at this point.
I think we might be the only ones trading. This thing has flat lined.
agreed….3:30 here we go
I am looking at daily charts for NGD,EGO,NG and GDX (all gold plays). RSI is pretty high on them, but relative to equities running up again gold as a “safety play ” is not showing too much weekness. I would like to know if any of you are holding gold plays longer term swing trend, or if you think that the $1,000 level is still going to be too tough to break through. thnx
bull flag?
1013.4 held again.
bears giving up a bit?
watching for 1016.8 area
Woo, it looks like we may get that level on Tuesday. Let’s see in the last few minutes here.
1016.4 … close…almost…hehe
They’ll probably close it right below my stop so they can gap up tuesday and ram me right in the ass
lol. i’ve also had times when they hit my stop, and then decided to take off from there so i miss out on all the profit. bastards.
Anyone know much about a 71 or 72 trading day pattern peak in the gold market? I remember seeing a chart showing peaks and reading it was speculative that the pattern would repeat. If it did, I’m thinking gold high around 9-9-09 plus or minus a day, stock high same day, dollar low the same day, then stocks drop. Of course this would be assuming there is something to that gold peak pattern.
EWI short term recently showed it with 9/10 as the drop day.
looks like this is B wave up, Monday might continue up , next week should see C wave down
I have a feeling that Moday will be a flat day in the markets.
I think we get a move up at close. Market seems quite bullish today
Ok. 100% in Cash!
Best wishes to all.
Have a good holiday weekend!
Thanks, you too. Being in Cash will help it to be relaxing. The market should be flat of gap down on Monday so it felt right to go to cash too. Still, Monday is a long way from now.
The deep details of the jobs report today were not good and will be discussed over the weekend. That combined with Sept tell me to only go long after we drop hard again. I really want to see 979 to go heavy long.
I took a beating on Tuesday but got it all back with a little more. The Chinese goverment really needs to keep their mouths shut. They are unpredictable and really pissing me off.
3:56. I’m ready for that sell of annny time! Haha I was thinking the exact same thing Idan. I guess we underestimated people’s lazyness. No one is working thus there is no volume.
My long term put orders didn’t get filled today
Oh well, what have I got to lose for not getting the fills? Nothing.
We shall see what happens on Tuesday.
Zee;
Looks like you were right on with your cycle theory.
turn date on 7th?
Zee was warning that we may have put in a short term bottom 2 days ago … based on cycle theory – be careful
have a good weekend everyone =) time for drinking!
Today’s Volume: 2.8 Million
Last time volume was lower December 28, 2008.
That is suppose to be 2.8 Billion.
volume should alway be super low friday before holiday weekend
Held my Sept / Oct calls over … and my XLF puts as XLF behaved very weak today … my line in the sand for XF puts is 14.24 … if it gets above that I am out …
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/04/mann.george.w.bush/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
I see a lot of people on here bought the VXX today. I did as well. I posted earlier about the VXX backtesting resistance as support today. Also am seeing a really clear Inverse H&S on the VXX with left shoulder on 8/13, head on 8/24, and right shoulder probably formed today. Slightly ascending neckline should hit around $63-$63.50, so if that breaks, this should shoot up to $70 level.
Good luck.
VIX goes down on average is SEPT. Except for last year.