Intraday Commentary ~ 09/03/2009

By
FocalEquity
– September 3, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

3:42pm
The market has shot up above the 23.6%… so now the likely target is the 38.2% retrace.  Or at least 100.65 ish. 

3:32pm
More conviction buying now… i’m guessing people are taking away their shorts before the jobs data number… I am somewhat optimistic on that number, but I don’t know how the market would react to it.. we haven’t reached the 1003-1004 target that i have on the SPX (38.2% retracement), that could be a turning point. 
 

3:23pm
The market managed to rebound somewhat, this is a dead day, and tomorrow after the jobs number will probably another dead day  (I’m assuming there is going to be some futures gap), I was hoping to get a sell off to sell into at the end of the day, we’ll have to see. 

2:41pm
The Dow Just popped into the red again, the financials are losing some ground here.. My JPM short is doing great for now… AMED long is doing great as well… the SPY is slowly moving towards the lows, helped by weakness in oil. But still, there is no conviction in the selling.. my guess is that this type of selling is actually relatively sustainable, I would look for support at 99.80 and 99.60 but if we break those, the last hour is going to be just a lot of longs dumping, and I think there’s a high chance of that.   
 

2:09pm
2pm reversal hasn’t really hit the market yet… AMED doing great, hitting new highs for the day, but the rest of the market has no conviction.. i’m hoping for a potential sell off. Oil has bounced a bit.. but just formed a 5 minute reversal candle.  

1:48pm
Oil really weak here.. down about 0.6% in less than 20 minutes.  AMED is the only long position that I took today and it’s up quite significantly since i took it. It’s actually rising right now as the market is selling off..

1:42pm
JPM giving away some of it’s gains here… after hitting my trendline. 2 pm reversal is soon, i wonder what we’re going to do, the market is undecided. If the market sells off hard, I will not be holding any shorts AT ALL into tomorrow.  

1:38pm
Oil falling down here… VIX hitting the 61.8% retracement since the last rally  in that index, but the SPY hasn’t given away anything.. something’s gotta give. 

1:33pm
Oil very toppy here.. depending how we close the 10 minute.. but we are back a little below the neckline.. if we hold the neckline we could still see a rally.. a close below 68.3 would be bearish… I think financials should sell off soon due to oils current action.  

1:10pm
So far the confirmation we got is not very clear we got a DOJI 5 minute candle…oil however is rallying, so therefore the likelihood of the market rallying is higher, once that rally dampens.. we could see a sell off.  The market target for a rally will be between 1000-1004 on the SPX. A sell off will hit 99.60, 99 and then 98.60 (for today). 
 

1:04pm
We could be getting a breakout to the upside here, with oil finishing its inverse H&S pattern and shooting up… the market will probably get a lift and a breakout from the triangle.   Wait for a 2 candle 5 minute confirmation. AAPL has a potential H&S on the 5 minute… 

12:55pm
Triangle formation on the SPY 3 minute intraday chart… not sure how that will play out, but it’s going one way or another and very soon:
spy3min 
 

12:38pm
Specific names in the market are starting to sell off a bit, we got oil away from the highs (although could be potentially forming an inverse H&S on the 5 minute), and we have AAPL showing a little bit more weakness, financials are off their highs but still remain strong, respectively. Notice that the last 2 days have been more like consolidation days, although the market was more flat than up. There are two views for something like that, either we sold off too hard and we get a reversal, or the market sentiment has become so bearish, that even a normal upward consolidation won’t be obtained. When the market was rallying, we got days where the market just stayed flat or rallied a little bit, and that was our consolidation… I think the reverse is possible too. 
 

12:05pm
The market remains dead.. right now it looks like it’s forming a bear flag on the 10 minute SPY… but we can still get more upside due to strength from financials. Oil has also seemed to have bottomed here…even though it’s much weaker than the rest of the market. My AAPL short is down a little and so is my JPM short, which i’ll be adding to.  

11:10am
JPM downward channel that broke down the day before yesterday, well now the support is resistance, sitting around 42.10-42.15… that will be my first short position in this name again, and I will be adding to this short as we go higher, at 42.60 and 43.30. 

10:53am
Financials are holding up, this market won’t sell off until financials give in. 
10:36am
We have reached the double bottom on the futures at 991 and bounced, there is a potential for an inverse H&S on the 2 minute SPY… that said, we are bouncing from the lows of the session and the bounce was not on high volume, today will be interesting, if the lows break, I think 980 is around the corner.  I have to leave for 2 hours i will be back for the afternoon session. 

10:09am
The only news that might actually drive us up tomorrow, is the jobs data, I’m hoping we continue falling today so that I can take away all my shorts off the table into tomorrow. I do expect a slightly better jobs number which can give the market some hope. Then again, I think that this will be the last better than expected jobs number. 
 

10:07am
Wow 2 minutes after i wrote my message the market tannnnked, we hit the double bottom at 99.81, and are bouncing a little due to 1 minute oversold conditions.  

10:01am
48.4 Vs 46.4 of last month, that’s still under 50! and just below expectations, the market is selling off a little bit. Even though the S&P held for a bit, other stocks aren’t, and i think the S&P will follow.  

9:52am
ISM non-manufacturing coming out at 10 am.. that should move the markets, the last ISM was great but we sold off.  
 

9:38am
I am adding to shorts on STEC, which was one of our short positions in the hedge fund, but we have taken profits on that yesterday morning.  I am also going short some aapl for a potential of a H&S… again I hae a lot more cash to use once we move higher but this market is just held by bears here. 

9:34am
Fibonaccis from the big sell off:
23.6% = 100.39
38.2% = 100.9
50% = 101.4 ish
61.8% = 101.74 

9:31am
Even though the market has been strong in the futures, ever since the weekly jobs number came out we have sold off. The reason we rallied was because china rallied more than 4.5% but the bad jobs number sets badly into tomorrows big jobs number.  
 

2:00am
Hey guys, so far the futures are looking like they are bouncing here… but you have to be careful, even though we are overdue for a 1 or even 2 day bounce, this market can actually surprise us to the downside yet again. As you can see on the SPY 60, XLF 60, we might have a little more to go before we fall to the neckline of the H&S… so i do expect a 1.5-2% drop from current levels very soon. Looking at GLD 60 minute, you can see that we might have a little more upside to go to the 97$ resistance top before we retrace to the breakout levels or at least form a bull flag. So these 3 charts tell me we might have some more downside to go as soon as tomorrow or friday. The JPM chart however shows that a bounce is imminent and that JPM has touched it’s potential H&S neckline, and can actually outperform the market for a few days (We took profit on this one yesterday). Finally the SPY 10 minute is right below, and shows you a possible channel that we have formed, and some technical levels. All these predictions below, are NOT accurate TIME WISE, they are more accurate price wise, and represent different scenarios. Remember that we are still in an ascending wedge, and until the support is broken (shown on the 60 minute SPY) we have not technically started P3. 

SPY 10 minute:
spy10mi 
 

SPY 60 minute:
SPY60minutes 

JPM 60 minute:
JPM60

GLD Daily:
GLD daily

XLF 60 minute:
xlf60

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.