Once again, this nonsense about professional money managers’ bullish sentiment has possibly reached to the highest since the pre-crisis level when the market peaked in October of 2007. Who cares about these professional money managers? They are sheeps just like the masses – always wrong! How many professional money managers correctly anticipated the market collapse? I would say less than 1%. The mutual fund business is not about making the correct calls or making money for their investors. It’s all about hugging some benchmark and collect their fees.
We need to look at insiders. Why has insider selling increased to the highest level in several years? Perhaps it is for the same reason as why insider selling reached a record only four months before the market peak in 2007.
People who are chasing this rally is catching the very last bit or nothing at all. The easy money has been made and that is a clear fact. Whenever the masses begin to jump on the wagon, that is usually a sign that the party is over.
Perhaps I will re-post this short note two months from now at the end of October.
Hey Tony,
Where do you find the insider trading reports?
Thanks,
S&P
Hey,
We get our daily news feeds. But this information is publicly available.
This one is the first troubling sign of insider selling in June.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/144641-insiders-selling-heavily-what-s-up
This is the latest one after insider selling reached another record in August.
http://forex.einnews.com/article.php?nid=36787
http://www.insider-trading.net
also at
http://www.bylow.org
Right on point Tony.
I run a few funds in Switzerland and have been selling this S&P for the past few weeks. This morning on the open was the last straw for me… 100% short.
Good post,
Richard
Thanks for the comment Rich.
Did ur a/c get ratted on to madoof? Swiss banks will be toast due to fed gov’t
rulez according to Messr. Cray-mere.
Short UBS
long
RBS
Swiss Banks that operate outside of Switzerland will have a tough time. Those private banks that keep their offices and officers within the country are doing very well. Many of them saw at least parts of the 30B of outflows from UBS in Q1.
My plan is to keep my accounts relatively delta neutral till the markets figure out what they want to do. Longs include CAH, PCP(probably take profits today), ATI, and BCR(taking profits today). Shorts are GS, POT, ARLP, and HMSY. Keeping my eyes on FAZ and TWM if the market starts to drop. Longs, watching X, FCX, FDX, DRYS should the market stay strong.
Sheeps?
Jim Cramer, my personal friend and hero, says we will not see any pullback as fund managers
(bernanke & GS) so fear this market moving down that they will bail out any downmoves with
the full faith and trust of the gov’t of US.
AIG is going to $500. Cramer was considered for helicopter bennies job.
No sheeps were hurt in this posting. Sheeps are not traded outside NZ or austrailia. . . .
Sow 15,000 by end september.
Haha. We will see … I wouldn’t count on Bernanke and GS that’s for sure.
The market can only go up for so long.
Tony-good points…it seems that insiders are distributing corporate paper (equities and bonds with lots of Wall Street help) because many of the buyers are hedge funds (backed by Banks and Investment Banks) where the margin costs are now lower and the Government is indirectly taking on more of the risks and retail Mutual Funds…so in conclusion, there has been a massive debt swap enabling the higher tiers to transfer the risks to the lower tiers (retail sheep) which means more newer debt at lower rates to (refinance/recapitalize/swap-out) the old debts at higher rates…seems like an echo bubble is forming…GLT to all at ST.com…
exactly TNbear. Wall Street basically took all the profits and transferred all the risks to retail and the government. This is why this rally since March costs taxpayers (treasury/Fed) in the trillions. To me, it’s just a waste and now the nation as whole is deeper and deeper in debt. We will how this unfolds.
Why don’t you post the other half of the story – the small investor is big time bearish.
Every one of you is bearish and hoping the market will decline. We all know what happens then.
Cramer wants all stock to go up forever, a true american patriot second only to larry
‘cuddles’ kudlow. . . . you know, the guy on coke.
Wrong. Cramer sell into strength all the time.
I think it should be noted that the plural of sheep is sheep, not sheeps.
Well said, Morris.
Also, eventually Tony will be right. No one can be wrong so many times in a row(s).
Plural or not this market will not do what we all think or wish….When ‘said’ big money investors roll back into town and spend their first night in their own bed since May (highly unlikely) drive through the local burnt bean for twinkies and triple shot espresso on the way back to the office. Greeted by interns with stacks of charts of the best companies to short. The world will wake to 1280 on the S&P. There is waaayy to much bearish sentiment for after the long weekend. When you repost in Oct. Please repost comments too….the markets will rip every penny it can from the Bears and turn hard to those slow on the trigger holding long. Is the US economy fixed? Far from it but………..The markets are! ex. LEHMQ up over 200% on Fri?
Crashes are for lazy bears! The last few months are for desperate governments.
Were still in an uptrend, so I don’t know why bears are prediciting a downtrend.. heck we could just get a ABC correction of this leading diagonal and then get wave 3 up…
Totally agree. But the banks are about to go on a slide again so it will be a battle.
AKOptionTrader has a great page this weekend. Very worth taking a look. Here’s the link:
http://akoptiontrader.com/2009/08/28/i-got-a-secret/#comment-458