10:45am
Nice little sell off so far, I don’t think today will be a disaster day for the markets, but the most likely scenario that shows that we are starting WAVE 3 or Wave 5 (if you count 2000 as the high) of the bear market is if we get 3-5 consecutive down days.
12:00am
For the first week, we have had good news pretty much all around, and the market hasn’t moved one way or the other, this could be a hint that a lot of the information is already priced in. In january when subwave 4 of wave 1 ended, the market didn’t crash, it fell very slowly and continuously, I wonder if we can get that thing going into september expiration. We had 2 doji candles then, we have 3 doji candles now… This market still remains though in a possible bull flag channel or a H&S formation.. on the 10 minute SPY . I like GLD short and JPM short.. GLD forming a triangle consolidation for another bull shoot higher will probably get a fakeout downwards first, and JPM is just incredibly overbought.
SPX daily showing some resemblence:
Today
8:30 – GDP
8:30 – Jobless Claims
10:30 – EIA Natural Gas Report
Friday
8:30 – Personal Income and Outlays
9:55 – Consumer Sentiment
Once again the correction/pullback took place outside regular US market hours.
Can you elaborate on this?
Futures market – notice how the futures go into red after closing and then back to green one hour prior to opening? It’s been like that for the past few weeks, except for very few red days that made remaining bears salivate.
Asian markets are doing the correction for the US cash market.
It won’t matter once job and GDP numbers are out. We’ll be psuhed one way or another pretty hard at least at the beginning of the day
More likely up than down though. And since they are released one hour prior to markets open, they won’t determine the market direction necessarily. The first 30 minutes of market action is a sweeping swing to hit those stop-loss orders both ways.
no big surprise, another quiet day
That’s why I’m waiting for Labour Day long weekend to start trading again. This is probably going to be an up early, down mid-day, and doji at EOD, and perhaps same thing tomorrow.
Anyone know why solar stocks got killed last few weeks other than they are POS?
The whole sector was downgraded. I think it was Jefco that did the downgrading.
Market analysts at investment bank Piper Jaffray said the cost of solar panels has plunged in the past year due to increased supply and decreased demand.
So, are we heading towards gap fill at 1016?
OK, gap filled but so far the bounce is muted.
It’s the “doldrums of August”. A ton of people are on vacation. Notice the light trading volume on the exchanges the last few weeks?
I still have 3000 shares of SCO and 2000 shares of TZA (at averages of 15.50 and 14.50 respectively). Up almost 5k on the SCO trade now.
got back in on the retrace–good call.
Sold all @17.30 (bought 200 shares @15.57 & 400 shares @15.30.)
I’m happy I have followed you to add more @15.30. Made some profits.
Thanks, Morris.
Nice job!
Awesom !!
The normal crowd here is very bearish and they haven’t had much to be excited about lately.
Q’s and the small caps (IWM) look the weakest this morning (no surprise).. we cracked the 102.50 on the SPY. The volume yesterday came at 10,, let’s see what happens now..
Does anyone know of an EFT to short the TSX?
Cdn profits reported and now all are selling on the good news.
try the horizon beta pro ETF’s HSD, HFD
Woo / Ox – what are you seeing here?
After GDP release bought 3000 EDZ @9.06. Target move down 9050.
seems like the A team of stocktock is working today..
are we playing bullish again so the pomo can see.
wow, this place is dead. still holding the SCO and TZA positions.
Any other recommended sites like this one?
Morris – let us know if you liquidate TZA and SCO. I am in TZA avg about 16, and maybe reducing my position at a loss if this uptrend continues.
I will. My initial target for SCO was 17.05 (up 10% from my average of 15.50) and we are past that right now so I might close that one pretty soon. I’ll be out for the next hour so the earliest I will do anything will be this afternoon. Good luck!
http://images.google.com/images?q=mandy%20cnbc
Bought puts in C at $5.00.. seems like a major resistance.
Switched over to calls since it broke $5
CIT–another AIG?
Market is going more up today… C@5 is double Top….
C broke 5 now it is support…
what a run
HS on 1 min at C
this market never goes down
The drop this morning was a headfake and a bad one at that…
AIG will go to $450 and dow 16000 by years end. Face it, the PPT wants inflation, weak dollar,
low interest rates. DON’T BITE THE FED !!!!!
MY LONGS: AXL FRE WAVE ETFC C TSDC AIG ABK CIT
In real life i run a scrap yard. Good money in scrap stocks, stuff others throw way. I eat out of
garbage cans and invest into them with good results. Always set stops 8.5% under trailing close
price.
BOOOOOOO-YAHHHHHHH, cramer rulez!!!!!
http://www.evilspeculator.com posted an interesting comment about this next week making a new high in the market. So, if that’s the case, I have several upside targets, but I am not going long: 1046.75 and 1054-1055. However, I know that the top could have already been put in at 1037 because that was the 38.2% price projection from Aug 18th. That’s compared to the rally from July 10 to Aug 7th.
Keep in mind that on the monthly charts, we have the 20 period MA and the middle of the bollinger band just overhead.
I had to change my name, because someone else here shares my name.
Actually per a more bullish site I also follow, we bounced off the bottom of a trend line I believe. At
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
But he doesn’t use elliottwave analysis and has a bullish bias over 90 percent of the time. He’s good when market is going up though.
Thanks! Looks like good analysis.
Rick, Do you have some more blog. The one that you give the link is good, so please give us some more link if you have any. Thanks
Yes, there are probably some other good ones which you can find on daneric site but I haven’t even looked at all of them. Some I have been checking usually at least once a day are.
http://evilspeculator.com/
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
http:/kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/
The S&P just bounced off the bottom like Mandy.
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://img378.imageshack.us/img378/6607/mandy4em5.jpg&imgrefurl=http://dealbreaker.com/2009/07/something-feels-different-here.php&usg=__Rg692tI8vXrsXn06rmeXEt3fwmk=&h=576&w=720&sz=44&hl=en&start=15&tbnid=LXQw2en1MX3EJM:&tbnh=112&tbnw=140&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmandy%2Bcnbc%26hl%3Den
north of 1025 again. not completely solid on the 60 minute though.
Needs to stay up here a bit, or rise a lot more, for the mark to be sustained. then the bulls will probably have it for the day.
1045 might hit before the week is over. trend line will allow for it very soon.
some people are calling for the 7th to be a turn date could that be a possibility.
if it goes to the 7th, we’re going to end up heading higher than 1045…
looking at the current chart, a break out of 1030 seems like the next step to come.
i might be out and in cash by friday.
There it happens as we speak …. pls do post when you get out into cash Woo …
will let you know!
yeah, saw that one coming.
1033 is the long term fib, so it’ll create a little resistance. not sure how much though. since it’s already created a good amount of resistance on the 60 minute chart twice in the past, we might just blow past it after a small hesitation.
this would make it a lot easier to go 10 points to the 1045 area for tomorrow.
1045 hits, and i’m out. might buy a REALLY small put position and play a bounce down into the next day. but i’ll be mostly in cash to watch if that area breaks or not to the north.
There’s the hesitation
God you are amazing … this is something I just have to learn … will be going through your past posts on the long weekend 
What puts would you be looking to buy – which month ?
i get long term calls right for the most part. i’m still working on getting better at reading short term calls. these days i trade more long term, and it’s been better.
currently thinking 1033 will break before the day is over.
Paul, Where did you see that some people call 7th to be a turn date? Please link.
What selloff?
The Chieftain has spoken.
I got stopped out of SCO at 17.05 while I was out. I should have sold earlier in the day around 17.30; poor discipline on my part. Ended up with 10% on the trade so I am pleased overall (about 4600 in profit). Still holding 2000 shares of TZA at an average of 14.50 so I am down about 1k on that one right now (ugh).
I will get right back into SCO again if it drops under 16.00.
Great trade morris … will be on the lookout next time
Thanks. I’m annoyed that I did not follow my normal strategy of closing the trade immediately upon any overshoot of my target but it still turned out ok.
Good job!
I always have the selling-too-soon problem, let the profits go away. How lucky I exit at the perfect time this time.
Pls let us know if you enter the SCO trade again. Good Luck!!
Yep, you nailed the exit point on this trade!
Me too, Morris, I’d like to piggyback on that trade next time!
This market refuses to go down! amazing. No sell on the news.
I’ve said not to short before Labour Day, today is a prime example of why the risk is too high.
What’s so special about Labor Day?
Bailout 1.0 – 25% crash in 6 trading sessions, October 3, 2008
Bailout 2.0 – 22% decline in four weeks, February 10, 2009
Health Care Bill (Bailout 3.0) – God knows, sometime after Labour Day
Dumped my shorts first 15 minutes…opened down too far too fast!
counting my lucky stars!!!
Be Careful Out there. (pigs get slaughtered)
there isn’t much to stop the market north of 1033 except for maybe a trend line hit around 1040ish?
if 1033 breaks solidly, there might not be much stopping this till 1040s…
i just repeated myself. sorry i’m eating lunch and a little unfocused…
I am shorting right here, if it breaks will cover but don’t think it will.
Will hold into tommorow.
backtesting 1030 on 60 minute. don’t think we’ll go south of 1029.
We will.
Last 10 min ??
consolidation right now above the 1029-1030 area is bad news for short term bears…
woo, why is 1029-1030 important in your view?
1020, 1025, 1030 are all fib projections towards a 1045 number.
we’ve played around enough between these fibs, usually after you break out of it like this after testing previously, you just keep heading higher.
1033 was a LONG term fib retrace and created good resistance, but that won’t last much longer because we’ve tested it so many times.
consolidation above the last fib projection over 1030 means that it’s setting up for a stronger move upward.
if 1040 hits in the morning tomorrow, i am going to sell my longs and wait, because the trend line is right around there. i still think 1045 minimum will hit, but since that trend line is strong, i’m expecting at least a bounce.
if we break north of 1045 and north of that 1040 trend line, i might just buy long and wait for the next higher targets to hit.
another day with little change on market
there was still a 15 point spread throughout the day. anyone who got calls at 1017 is up a pretty penny on options. my friend got in and is sitting pretty.
i’ve been holding more long term though…and yes…i am also pretty bored and not liking the last couple days of no movement haha.
I guess labor day comments makes sense (#28)
just like a tennis match!
back in SCO; 1000 shares at 16.10
will add to the position if it goes under 16.00
Morris, I jumped in too…hope to scalp a bit! Let me know what your target is will you? Thanks!
Too bad, my order didn’t fill. Will get back in tomorrow. GL.
bears need to push below 1029 into close. if not we could end up with a 10 point rise into tomorrow…
Still holding short from 1033, will hold into tommorow.
might not be a bad play. that 1033 is definitely a significant point. and even if it hits to 1040s, it might dip after. good luck!
Thanks, thats what I am looking for.
Good play.
Chris (channel guy) said 1028 so you two agree. Looks like we closed bull-ish. Anyone getting light-headed with the thin air up here?
Good trade day on this front. Tried GS early (long) and it was stagnent so rode TNA and FCX north.
Wanted to get trigger-happy with AIG each time it got into the low 48′s…but learned those lessons back in the tech bubble days so stayed out.
Anyone trade AIG or is this board too sophisticated to trade the low-lifes?
Dell earning tonight.
Won’t matter, the market has already decided to kill the remaining bears.
lol
I am a new bear, not one of those trying to short since March : )
I have been bullish, & I can go bullish again.
No permabull or permabear here.
Woo, thanks for posting…you’re thinking 1040 in the a.m. and then lower in the afternoon? Any predictions of the range lower? Thanks in advance!
i’ll try and post an update today. there’s a trend line at the 1040 area. 1033 needs to break first and i’m not sure if that will break AH and PM, if it does, it could very quickly rise to 1040 into open, or early morning.
i have no idea how much it will bounce south after 1040, might backtest the 1033 area to let it know that it’s important and not hurt its feelings.
i’m still leaning towards a minimum 1045, but the trend line might not extend that far till end of day tomorrow.
if we extend above 1045 too early, we might get a trend line break, which could mean a lot more rising to come. if it just hits it and dips south, we could just keep dipping south from there. i won’t even begin to guess what will happen once 1045 hits. i’ll be in cash for a day or two at least to see what the market has in store.
Thanks Woo..
I’ll be watching for your updates and your posts too! Take care!
I’m starting to get the chart thing down. Can someone recommend a trading platform/website that is cost efficient if I do 1-2 trades per day? Any help would be great thanks.
i use stockcharts.com, it takes a while to get used to, but is consistent.
i have a friend who uses thinkorswim. you don’t need to trade with them or deposit money, you just need to sign up for an account and can start using their tools for free.
well, i need a platform to execute trades. right now, i’m using amtd and the juice (i.e. trading fees) is adding up.
Hi David.. I use tdameritrade as well..
If you sign up with this offer ( http://www.tdameritrade.com/offer/quotetracker.html?a=PFD&referrer=bullrally ) , you will get $5 trades with them for a year. As you might know,, TDAmeritrade now owns Think or Swim.. so just ask a rep there,, and they will send you a link for you to download the thinkorswim where you will be able to trade your tdameritrade account.
Oh,, & because you are an tdameritrade customer,, you also get to use the Quotetracker platform for free.. where you will also be able to place trades as well as do charting.. http://www.quotetracker.com/
So,, take our pick
I Use Interactive Brokers, i get charged on avg a dollar for trade….. check out
Wow, surprised this post wasn’t pulled….yet.
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looks like someone is on top of it. sometimes i don’t even know what’s going on and it takes me a while to realize what happened.
woo, When said the below sentencese but I can not understand them. Would you explain it in more detail. I am famalier with fib numbers and fib retrace buy can not understand the below sentences. I would appreciate if you explain it more, Thanks
————-
1020, 1025, 1030 are all fib projections towards a 1045 number.
1033 was a LONG term fib retrace and created good resistance, but that won’t last much longer because we’ve tested it so many times
fib retraces are based on existing market movement. so the market has already moved, and you draw a fib sequence for that movement, and have retraces for it. a projection or forecast is based on fibs for a potential move to a certain point.
if you look back at any completed wave, you can draw the fib sequence from beginning to end, and you will notice that the fib points of that wave also played significant roles. so we are using this information to try and predict where future movement will go by aligning possible fib projections before the wave completes.
if you draw a line up to 1045 from 1004 (last major take off), you can get some of the fib lines 1020,1025, 1030. there are a LOT of things to take into consideration when making these projections. after understanding EW and getting comfortable with it, you’ll learn to implement different reasons for why certain projections make more sense than others.
the 1033 is a retrace from the large drop last year.
Thanks Woo for all of your time and effort. After today’s posts, no wonder why others (Idan, Richard, S135, Uner, etc.) don’t spend as much time sharing their charts, etc., here. Nothing wrong with being a bull or bear, just too many stupid comments. Also, thanks to JROD, CKeltner, FLGuy, Morris, 3 min, Fritz, Bear Photo… etc. for hanging in, as you have added value. However, site is watered down. Still feel that someone should start charging dollars to be here!!!! I’m out!
richard’s been a little busy lately (miss the guy!), same with some of the others, i believe idan had a business trip. we’ve been trying to be better about monitoring the site so that we keep things positive. i think sometimes people get emotional about their decisions, whether they agree or disagree with someone’s post. it’s understandable since money and pride can be on the line, but i don’t think it’s productive. There are always nice ways of explaining things, and even gloating can be done in a fun way instead of parading in front of the loss of others who might have made a different choice.
as you know, we always promote any ideas and thoughts as long as it’s not detrimental or rude and we actually appreciate well thought out criticism and alternative interpretations of TA. I think that’s why Morris, 3min, and the other guys you listed stick around and continue to post throughout the day. We don’t want to become like a google or yahoo board. and the predominant reason for lower posts has been because the market hasn’t really moved much within the last few days. this has been the trend for the intraday posts, where increased volatility leads to increased posting (maybe we should chart it and use it as an indicator).
Thanks for the post Old Bear, let’s all try and make some money, or at least learn something along the way haha.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWIhiz9Qh9M&feature=player_embedded
I believe there was another reason for the lower number of posts today. This afternoon I noticed the site was not loading at different times of the day. I’m not sure what the problem was. The other reason may be that people are on vacation or busy working or waiting for this market to top out and start a major wave down. I did experience a problem with the site not loading though.
I had also had problems with the site’s very slow response. Moderators also deleted about half of the comments because they were from trolls or were replying to trolls.