3:51pm
Unless we close under 102.85 i’m not holding my TZA position into tomorrow..
3:42pm
So much indecision into the close… it looks like the market will fall though.. we are forming a bear flag.. but wow we are having tons of topping and bottoming candles right next to each other…
3:17pm
XLF has a nice triangle formation on the day, a break below 14.50 would be bearish a break above 14.57 would be bullish..
3:10pm
TZA at 13.95..
2:45pm
After being stopped out at this high volume bar at 103.20 with small profits on TZA.. i’m looking to go back into the position if we reacht eh 103.50 with a stop around 103.70 OR if market drops below 103 for more than 5 minutes again…
1:10pm
I have added to my shorts with a TZA position over the course of the day, my guess is that yesterday’s high was the high, I will put a stop on the TZA if 103.20-103.30 on the SPY is violated… That would give me still about a 0.2% profit so that way I can place it higher..
11:48am
Even though there’s a clear h&S on the 10 minute and the last two days on the daily were clear topping candles, you have to see that the market could just be consolidating in a slightly descending channel formation, the question is do we break to the downside or upside?
11:12am
There’s a clear H&S on the SPY 10 minute so far to the downside the volume has not been strong enough.. the neckline is at 102.40$
12:00am
Here’s my updated SPX chart even though i’m incredibly busy. As you can see, we’ve traded two days in a row above the SPX wedge or megaphone resistance, but we formed topping candles both days…. with oil showing bearishness now, we might be likely to move down, BUT two consecutive closes above the wedge would turn me very bullish in the short term AND longer term.
theres normaly strong volume on tops and bottoms and the volume been to light for this to b a top
I agree- there are too many reasons why this doesn’t feel like a top yet. I’m slooowly scaling into a short position though. I wont have my entire position at in at the top, but I’ll be averaging in close to it I think.
It would be interesting to know the margin exposure of longs in this market. I remember well the winter of 2000 when everybody and his brother was buying on margin when the NASDAQ was rising parabolically.
i’m still long, at least that’s what my gf tells me.
lol
I am getting a feel of consolidation. We came close to my upside target but did not touch it so I am thinking we could still push higher. I am up with all my short trades. I will sell EOD and see what happens tomorrow. If we finally get to 7675 7725 I will pile in again.
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today’s consolidation brought down the MACD and RSI a lot. more room to go up now.
1025 was defended. it’s a fib forecast towards 1045.
1045 is my short term target. hopefully it will hit before the end of the week so i don’t have to wait so long.
Interesting. Thnx (as always).
Thanks Woo – making me confident of holding my calls
Job numbers are bullish whether good or bad, so I am with Anjali, probably get it tomorrow, but would like your thoughts on the 13th impulsive possibly having been set at today’s high?
Thanks in advance Woo,
Ox
i know some might define it as impulsive, but i simply view it as an optimal way to get as high or as low a price as possible, while keeping the longer term avgs within a support or resistance level.
let me give you an example. if there is a long term resistance (which there is) at 1033 on the 60 minute chart, then there are different ways of reaching that average. 2 examples:
1) 1033, 1033, 1033 over a 60 minute span
2) 1030, 1036, 1034, 1032 over a 60 minute span
one is consolidation to form a support resistance point, another is larger spike/volatility moves that are averaged.
if you are a hedge fund, or market manipulator, or whoever you are that has a large amount of money to move a stock in a certain direction, it is much more advantageous to buy a stock and sell it at 1036, than 1033, while still having the long term avgs look nice on a longer avg time frame chart to disrupt anything.
i don’t look into theories of who drives the market, don’t really care whether it’s impulsive buying or not. don’t mind if it’s on high volume or low volume. i have seen too many markets rally huge percentages on low volume (people will say, because the low volume, it’s easier to drive the market), and i’ve seen too many markets rally huge percentages on high volume (people will say there is strong support). some people are good at using this information, i just don’t trade with it. i just look for trend lines, fib points, and EW. it’s all mathematical.
news is always spun. charts don’t lie.
i’m still trying to debate if high 1080s is still in the works. won’t know until 1045 is broken solid. i’m still going to keep with the gameplan to get out and sit in cash, or buy a very small put/short position at the 1045 area, and watch the market.
market can drop more if it wants to though.
1019-1020 is also a pretty strong support level and fib.
Explanation understood and appreciated.
Now, how about thoughts on tweezer top or what could be called an evening tri star formation (SPY and Q’s) lol
Thanks,
Ox
i know of japanese candlestick patterns, but am not really an expert on them. for that i defer to somebody else haha.
if in fact this could be called an evening tristar…look out below!
Does need confirmation
Woo – if it makes you feel any better – another person I have been following – with almost similar calls … today he upped his projection from 1044 to 1066 and possibly slightly higher …
He has been right for quite a few days and you both seem to be playing what the charts are saying vs personal bias of overbought / oversold coming into the picture … good perspective to balance things out ..
Check it out :
MortiES’ EOD Analysis 25Aug2009 ~ Building Strength?!
In GS 165.11 Out 165.77
OK scalp.
Woo may hit your target tomorrow
Two things that make me lean towards being bearish..
1) the rise in the VXX over the past 3 days is pretty compelling at around 4% (granted it could have just been oversold and forming a bear flag, but today’s volume was decent).
2) the last 15-30-60 min candles today on the SPX, SPY, XLF, etc did not close above the triangle resistance line forming over the last few days. It touched the resistance and backed off..
Anyway, obviously could go either way at this point, but I thought it would have been much more bullish if that last candle closed higher into tomorrow.
I understand what you’re saying, but the MACD and Stochastics on the hourly chart look as if the market wants to make another run up. I’m 5% short and 95% in cash, so if I have any bias it is to the downside.
The end of the day rally makes me think that we have at least one more 5 wave rally at the minute level taking us into the 1040′s. But, as you said, we are still within that triangle, and the market seems to become more sluggish as the days pass.
I agree we have room to run (up). Money is not yet moving out of this market. Buyers are getting reluctant (lk at volumn) but sellers are not yet throwing in the towel. I look for us to be in the green by mid morning tomorrow or earlier – as Ox said :
“….Job numbers are bullish whether good or bad…”
Just curious but why is Woo’s stocktock icon not there?
sometimes i don’t log in and just post by adding my name and email haha. sorry, i’ll try and log in so that random people can’t say things pretending to be me.
Thanks Woo Man!! You are the best as always!! Miss you more and more here. Please devote some time here….
errr…i could be totally wrong and my counts could be off. haha. hopefully things go well. i’ll let you guys know if my charts change drastically.
i think most people aren’t too heavily invested in this area anyway and are taking precautions, which they should.
I could not make up my mind whether to go long or short for tomorrow’s GDP/jobless claims
market was about to close and I rushed to buy some SSO to go long.
I have a bad feeling that tomorrow’s GDP numbers will push us to new highs. All the numbers this week were good, I don’t see why not for GDPs.
I’m still holding onto my puts.
Ideally, this will cause that blow off top as Idan was talking about.
Playing any position so close to the 1040′s is unnecessary risk.. Unless your playing technical breakouts of small caps
.. I’m all cash at EOD,, waiting for this thing to pick a trend longer than 3 days..
That’s probably would’ve been the right way to play this uncertainty. I just wanted to get in whichever way it goes and ended up carrying both long/short =P
Pure gambling. Enjoy the rush, I guess.