2:38pm
The H&S that we have on the 5 minute SPY is breaking apart right now, with a target of at least 102.50-102.60… oil has somewhat bottomed but boy did it fall hard today, in anticipation for tomorrow’s inventory numbers…
1:15pm
The market seems a little toppy here. i’m surprised we were able to rally beyond yesterday’s high, but we never closed above it on the 10 minute candles… the energy and commodities are selling off quite sigfniciantly, and financials seem to be weaker than the overall market today, especially if you take into consideration that a lot of the individual stocks are forming H&S formations and todays rally is the right shoulder of the H&S.
12:00am
Markets are slightly down. I am on a business trip to NC and NYC, and so i’m sort of in and out at this point. I do believe we have put in a short term top yesterday, but we might just being a consolidation pattern again for another move higher. The volume yesterday was unimpressive, but after hitting the resistance line of the megaphone formation or the wedge formation, depending how far back you look at it, then the likelyhood scenario is another sell off..
taking part of SCO off.
Double top on SPY, around 103.90′ish.
USO fell nicely off those levels I gave earlier.
going to enter a small fas position – crossing over on stocktiger.
http://stocktiger.com/live/faz15.php
FRE-Z (Freddie Mac Preferred) once traded at its low of 0.001 (one-tenth of a cent) back in March, now trades at 2.29. No, it has no equity value and the gov’t has halted all payments with very strong wording that this preferred will most likely never ever recover. That just goes to show you how juiced this market is. Even Cramer called this market frothy yesterday.
General Motors (MTLQQ) is up 9%. This stock, selling for around 80 cents is absolutely worthless, literally. I would think even the sheeple or the alledged PPT wouldn’t touch this one. I think watching this stock is a good indicator of the irrationality and toxicity in this market. It also proves that it doesn’t take a PPT to make lemmings wealthy and send otherwise rational people for their Prozac and Valium.
Yep, see Post #5.
GM also came out and made a strongly-worded public statement that indeed all common shares have been canceled and will NOT be returned to the NYSE in its current listing. It only trades on the OTCBB for novelty’s sake.
Doesn’t it have some sort of tax benefit.. not sure how it works out though.
Bear flags SPY/RIFIN
103.50 is key going forward today on a 1 min bar basis.
Bottom support is 103.20 on the SPY. If we break below, then I think we can see a moderate amount of profit taking…
When this thing ends, it’s gonna end horribly for everybody.
What did I miss with oil? The inventory #’s aren’t due out until EOD. Went ooutdoors for a few and oil’s down 2 buckaroos in 10 minutes. Something happen overseas? thnx.
double bottom buying opportunity.
Just going to post that same thing…if it falls through that though a quick retrace to todays open is most probable.
double bottom opp happened this morning already, this would be a triple bottome and that is less likely, imo. – you guys if we make new lows today we will be right above yesterdays lows and that will be widely watched and possibly bought up so that is more key than todays low, imo.
Doesn’t matter, we have had a breakout out of 1016. Any supports must be bought until 1016 is broken, the risk is negligible.
Wow, I just walked into my office after teaching a class and SCO is rocking!
Yeah. My question exactly. Inventory #’s not out until the market closes. Someone must know something we do not.
the dollar.
I said last week that oil was a clear short but that it might take a bit to play out. I have 3000 shares at an average of 15.50 so I am very pleased!
5,000 shares @15.27. Sold 1,000 @ $16.01 (gap). Will also sell some more @ $17 ish, if gets there.
We might see 17 today.
UUP made new HOD . That along with oil cracking down, along with a potential hard reversal from this mornings highs give the bears a great opportunity to take charge here, imo. If they don’t that says somehting about there strength at this point and we may be headed higher once again.
my thoughts also
I have UUP resistance at 23.31, and of course yesterday’s highs of 23.30. Let’s see if it gets there today.
Exactly, I had 23.30 as a key level on my charts aswell..
Used today’s bump up to double my oct 31 call position in FAZ. Have some funds left that I will put into DECK and ARLP should they finally break out of their triangle formations.
Anyone else see the large inverse H&S pattern from Nov ’08 toJuly ’09 completing before we get any substantial correction?? I have the spx reaching around 1220 based on then neckline ave. of 940 and the head max of 666 = 274 . 274 + 940 = 1214??? or thereabouts, which is opposite most of the “investor/trader” sentiment all looking fo the pull back to begin now. Any one see this as a possible scenario???
Could it happen? of course, it could happen. I don’t care for the shape or volume patterns to much but it certainly seems possible. Would also line up with some retracements I believe.
But lets dispense with the investor/trader sentiment. Just because some posters are bearish on a blog doesn’t mean anything. Actual bullish sentiment is at higher levels right now then it was in 2007 in the “good ol days” before the drop when the crowd thought the market was still going to the moon.
Also, unlike the “failed” h&S, we have traded more then 3% above the neckline on this IH&S which is considered confirmation for the more strict pattern traders. I put failed in quotations because I have seen arguments it never failed because it never confirme with the above rule.
Yes but unfortunately i also see this one:
http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/08/secular-bear-market-rules-apply.html
And for the record i still think the Dow is going to the moon….just taking a detour through the middle of the earth first.
Yep, I’ve also been screaming for a 1220 “top” to the market. It’s also the 50% retracement.
Want to get an opinion on SNDK as a long … broke 17.75 and consolidating – tgt 19 ?
Yea that would be my target. Depending on how long you plan on holding, 1.25 may or may not be a good profit.
I just entered Sept 17 calls @ 1.45 … if it reaches 19 should be a good return … are you in this too?
It was on my watch list but i passed it up for more favorable returns. Im currently in mostly put positions or inverse ETFs with a few calls in APC.
1027 is key. It’s held all day, and has been a key S/R level for the last few days.
Bulls are doing a nice job of building support, first that spx 1022 and now spx 1028
do you think this is the ppt building support also
So….Just staring into the screen I noticed that on the RIFIN (one could argue that it starts mid July) but prob more believable from the three days of sideways movement starting July 27th a M pattern has formed with the second peak a little higher (where we are now) it would bring it down to around the 50ma or just below to 666! ONLY an observation. Daily chart of coarse. The RSI has neg divergence and the SS back in overbought conditions. Once again not calling a top just what I see.
bounced off of trendline support from Firday’s lows. I think we may be forming a triangle with the upwards boundary at about 1034
OK, forget the triangle pattern!
Finally, took them forever to go after that gap fill
seems to me that the level to watch now is yesterdays lows. they are within striking distance for the bears and if we take them out and close below them it would give them great opportunity going into tomorrow. – My QQQQ’s (which has been leading the market) weekly chart has long term converging resistance lines that I do not think will break yet, so far this week we are barely above them but that could turn into a wick if the bears take it down.
the potential for a bull trap becoming set (mon and tues) is becoming more and more of a possibilty. and with all the bear traps happening nobody is even expecting a bull trap. Not saying it will happen but am saying it is a possiblity
man the financials are not even being phased by the selloff.
Nice bear flag right into the 20ma 10m on the RIFIN. Could get interesting the last hour. Prob to the upside of course!!
We did get a touch of the double bottom to form that flag.
ppt time
This would be what, 7 straight up days for the Dow? Pretty much the same for the S&P (the 0.05 point loss yesterday doesn’t even count)
do you ever think that one day the ppt will turn around and sell
Into every rally!
Fakeout double bottom. Bears are trapped again! We will soar into the close.
It won’t soar today but if the market stay up for a few more days then we will see yet another short squeeze fueled big upday. Favorable market news just keep streaming along.
Duno. If it broke below I would say that.
Sorry still following the financials just looked at the SPY. They were the same before I started laundry!!
hmm this looks like the second consolidation day. We will have another mega upday soon.
Check out TBT. A lot of people sneaking into bonds…
JPM Puts that Idan was touting friday at 1.30 is now 1.20 with JPM around the same price at 43.60. So 2 days in the market and the puts fall about 10%.
This action the last 2 days seems very bearish to me. XLF and JPM virtually hasn’t done much. When it had aevery reason to get over 15 on XLF. I think we see 14 before 15 on xlf.
Time decay, it happens.
Theta is something you sell, not buy. If you are going to get out of the money options you need to watch this carefully, or go further out so Decay / Theta doesn’t hurt as much. At the money or In the money is the only way to play these when the volatility is so low. if you are going to swing them or use them as a position trade, I suggest you purchase further out than front month.
IVN +21% on the day seems to be proceeding to possibly blow its top into the close after the Mongolian government is changing laws to permet Ivanhoe to mine 1000 tons of gold, and copper and coal in the South Gobi region.
That is such a touchy stock. To much political BS.
Sell off!!!!
There is a nice little treat starting at 4am this morn on the EUR/JPY 10m for those who are interested.
Aapl hitting LOD, I predict tomorrow a red day. JPM to 42.5 tomorrow.
FL GUY, PAUL, Ckeltler, Bulls, Bears whoever…
This is MO, I used to participate here a lot however have started a live trading discussion @ http://www.livestream.com/stocktrades
Come over and share your opinions and charts as we are trading live on the site and post links to charts etc.
We would love to have educated traders participate.
MO
what do you all think of XLF puts.. too soon?
Mine are already on!
September??
We have nothing but positive news today and all we got is a 0.3% move up. Looks like everybody is waiting for a decent 2+ % drop to start buying again.
that would coincide with the URE gap fill. Still holding SRS.
I am not sure why anybody wants to be the first in or out of a trade. I personally am very bearish, but I have to see the right signs to go short (or long for that matter). There has been plenty of talk about the UUP in here. Why not wait for the trendline breach to get bearish the market? This upper line has been intact since the March lows. (Daily) The hourly has been intact since the 17th of this month. Run up touch it…..come back down…….rinse…repeat…. The lower line is still down there a ways. (Daily again) And let’s face it, job numbers regardless of direction have turned out to be bullish for the most part. What does that mean for Thursday? (Maybe contrarian this time……MAYBE) The megaphone top is in play and will be until it isn’t. Use it for your portfolio gains and NOT the losses.
I was over 440 contracts short this market on Friday. I played both sides intraday to hedge. This worked fine for a bit, but I had to decide to take my lumps on Friday (about 2% all said and done) and admit I was wrong. In the 2 days since I have more than made up for the smaller loss I took, which could have proven very harmful, as some of you have experienced. Like the saying goes ” Know when to say when”. Emotions need to be checked before you sit down, if you can’t do that, you shouldn’t be attempting to trade. I am personally finding it easiest right now to narrow my choices down to a few stocks a day right now and letting the rest of them go about their business as usual. It keeps me from having to guess what the neighbors are doing, and just taking care of my little family. I am in agreement we are nearing or possibly hit an intermediate term top, but I rather keep things green instead of worrying about hitting the whole move. There is always another trade out there waiting to be managed.
As in life……KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) <— not directed at anybody but myself.
Happy Trading,
Ox
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Froth of the Day:
FRE Up over 200% in the past 3 weeks…
NEW YORK, Aug 25 (Reuters) – Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. home funding company, on Tuesday said its mortgage investment portfolio shrank by an annualized 44.5 percent rate in July, while delinquencies on loans it guarantees accelerated.
The portfolio decreased to $799.1 billion, for an annualized 1.2 percent decrease year-to-date, the McLean, Virginia-based company said in its monthly volume summary.
Freddie Mac earlier this month reported a surprising profit in the second quarter and indicated that it may not need additional federal aid, at least for now.
Delinquencies, which increase stress on the company’s capital, jumped to 2.95 percent of its book of business in July from 2.78 percent in June and 1.01 percent in July 2008.
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stupid—look at charts!!!!!
does this mean we get gap fill on FAZ at $25.36, or potentially $28.65 tommorow?
Sorry, I am tired… but don’t the first and second paragraphs of that blurb contradict each other? One says the portfolio decreased by an annualized 44.5% while the first paragraph says it decreased by 1.2% annualized. What am I missing?
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Some jerk was on cnbc at the beginning of the day saying it’s very important for market to finish over 1030.. well it didn’t.. let’s see if that random guy was telling the truth.
“jerk…random guy….cnbc”….hmmm, good info thanks. Will apply to my trading strategy.
Just an FYI, I read today in the paper that 26 percent of the total volume on the New York Exchange I believe was due to only 4 stocks on Monday. Citibank, Fannie, Freddie, and BAC. That is not a healthy market. However I’m going to make my bets in the direction of the trend until I confirm that the trend has changed.
Per Cobra at
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/2009/08/08252009-after-bell-quick-summary.html#comments
“Seasonality wise, tomorrow is the 2nd most bullish day in Aug”
If I had to guess, I was thinking what if tomorrow was it? P2 Peak. People start selling afterwards since we are getting so close to September and way overbought. Plus tomorrow is one of the POMO days if you’ve been following the comments at
http://evilspeculator.com/
which tends to be a day that magically rises up no matter what the news is.
I’m waiting in cash to have more than just a tiny little drop before I believe P3 is here. I would have actually gone long today if the market had dropped to a certain point. Now I’ll just wait and see. If the insiders have already sold and mom and pop are driving this market up, it appears they are running out of steam in my opinion.
Car sales should be pretty much dead in my opinion from this point forward through winter. Home sales will continue positive with the $8000 credit through the end of November for first time home buyers if they are employed and feel confident enough with good credit if there are people around like that in November. Then home sales will get worse. I’m debating whether or not these bad numbers suddenly show up in another month or two or we start a slow descent sooner. If we have a cash for appliances program, it will have to be a very substantial credit to make me want to spend the money on a new appliance. That could potentially drag out P2 longer in my opinion though.
Just posting my thoughts afterhours.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
Too many people try to predict the tops.
Seen it 1000s of times since March 9th.
hello?