4:03pm
Interesting close… at least now we know where the top of one of the channels is at… i’ll have a video later on… i remain 35% short the market.. hoping for maybe one more day up before a reversal to fully begin, but i’ll take a reversal back down any day. HPQ is about to report, my take is that the expectations are so high.. that even a beat will disappoint.
3:46pm
The market volume is much weaker than yesterday but this doesn’t necessarily mean that the move higher is conosolidation, we could see a huge gap up tomorrow and short squeeze like said before… but that said, usually consolidation is on low volume and that’s what we have tomorrow.
2:30pm
The market SPY just hit the 2 descending resistances that formed pretty much a necktie, i took another 10% in SPY september PUTS to my portfolio, putting me about 30-35% bearish total.
2:09pm
Market is helped by a commodity rally… the financials are not as strong as they would be in a normal rally that we’ve seen. Tech is also looking a little weaker as we move to the afternoon…
2:01pm
We still are finding buyers.. next level of resistance is 99.42-99.52. Still a possibility for a H&S on 5 min.
1:58pm
GLD showing a nice H&S on the 10 minute or 5 minute, the opposite (inverse H&S) for the dollar (though not as prominent), is this what is needed to put a top on the stock market? 2pm reversal is here.
1:53pm
BAC looks a little weak to me here.. since I want more selling exposure on the banks into this friday’s options expiration i’m taking a small PUT august position on BAC in the money (1.5% of my portfolio): 10 minute BAC has a H&S and we have been consolidating for another move down:
1:33pm
Taking in some AAPL 1 out of the money September PUTS right here for the H&S that I mentioned yesterday.. we have been moving up on lighter and lighter volume, so I bought in a 5% put position. And we are about to hit the 20 SMA 60 minutes. GS on the 60 minute scale has a similar H&S… might be my next short.
1:11pm
We are breaking down the channel, this could mean that we are done going up for today, this is the top… I am now about 15% Short the market with XLF and SPY september puts.. I will add some more on any small move to the upside on low volume. Today’s volume is not as high as yesterday, so this looks like consolidation for another move down in the daily scheme.
12:44pm
Added a 7% SPY september right at the money PUT position… right here at a double top.. will add some more around the 99.48 level which is the H&S neckline and the 38.2% retrace.
12:34pm
Market is testing support of the ascending 5 minute channel.. we might get a bounce here.. but the next time we test it higher up, we will probably break down.
12:07am
The SPY 5 minute just hit it’s 200 SMA at 99.35… we are getting really close to a lot of resistance levels and we are getting overbought on both bullinger band, stochastic and RSI. I want to start taking SPY sept put positions and have started an XLF put position. These positions are incredibly small because it’s options expiration week.
11:53am
Market might decide to hit 99.50 today.. take a look at how amazing all the resistances line up for a 2pm reversal from the 99.50 level.
1:49am
Intraday 2 minute Video:
11:35am
SPY 10 minute updated again, now we know where the resistance line is at exactly:
11:26am
Market of the SPY 5 minutes is showing a clear ascending channel, once that support breaks (due to a resistance hit), we could get that nice little push lower…
11:22am
Here we go, I am constantly updating my charts as we move forward towards the resistances, each resistance will be met with an added position of shorts in my portfoloio: SPY 10 min
10:46am
I have to leave… my stops right now for both my GLD and XLF positions (the small little bit that are left) are above the 98.85 level of the SPY.
10:26am
Here’s an updated chart.. with another descending resistance up even higher: SPY 10 minutes. We found resistance at the 23.6% retracement.
10:00am
Here’s a 10 minute SPY chart of the descending channel that we might be starting to trade in, again i’m not sure if that’s the channel yet because we need another support and resistance hit to confirm but that’s my intuition:
9:47am
Good morning everyone, the market seems to have lost it’s ground with the housing start and PPI news. We are up, but rememeber that I did call for a potential last push lower before we start a consolidation pattern
2:03am
The ES (futures) are forming an inverse H&S.. a break of 984 on the ES will give us a move higher into tomorrow… That is different from the views I have on my video… we’ll have to wait and see, if we move up from the gate tomorrow, then this is the chart to look at: On your left ES 5 minute (inverse H&S), on your right the new SPX 10 minute with a new descending support line assuming we bottomed at the end of the day.
1:47am
Two videos to help you become a better trader, and my thoughts and chart for tomorrow:
PART 1-
PART 2 -
Idan, Are you sure these are all not bear trap? If tomorrow they open the market with a gap up then we will get a short squeeze and then again same stuff that we have seen recently in short squeeze rally.
C’mon–you can never be sure about anything. Put stops in.
If market opens up with gap up way beyond your stop loss, then you have to get a huge losses. I will wait until tomorrow, since HPQ is going to report thier earnign and then the intersting story of “better than expected” rally could continue.
judge by yourself, don’t rely on anyone
good call on C–still waiting for entry.
C will go above 4.5, just be patient
Wht do you see for BAC ?
What I know is Friday is a big up day, July existing home sales already leak
looking for 3.97 or lower (entry). if not, other stocks.
I’m looking for a fall at the end of the day. in for quite a bit of SDS with stops (in case the people with money decide to push it even higher at the end of the day)
The dollar broke out of a mayor trendline a few days back.. it is right at support now.. A doubble nut support like BW would say… No way it’s going through that without a fight.. & if the dollar bounces,, the market goes down..
http://www.chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=unkira5gyff8l5ufkeo.gif
HPQ earning will decide the trend for tomorrow.
Earning is out. Perhaps not a market mover tomorrow!
Here’s one for the end of the day…
Mayan calendar predicts first financial downfall… and the next? November 7th 2009:
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=400
The Mayan calendar? Probably a better indicator for the Mexican bolsa, but I guess we all have to choose the best tools for ourselves. Me, I’m a gonna stick with CNBC. Much more positive, equally irrelevant.
If you look at his chart though and I understand this Dr. is an expert on the Mayan calendar and mathematics, looks a lot like some Elliott Wave Millenium Cycle charts I have seen on history and man… Would not bet the house on it, but interesting to see what pans out.
In for SDS.. counting on a market fall at the last 10 minutes.
just bought 500 shares of TZA at 16.00
but this is NOT a high confidence trade!
I did not have the guts to hold my 700 shares into tomorrow. Sold EOD at 16.20. Good luck
HPQ missed, down big
HPQ beat.
I didn’t see the non GAAP number, yes they beat
It is down only 0.25% right now AH.
Doesn’t look like it now …
Looks like HPQ is tanking 43.55. I suppose it could bounce around. This could affect the Nasdaq Wednesday.
today is just A wave up, there will be C wave up followed
HPQ didn’t go down much, Nasdaq not even touch 38.2 retrace today from 2015 to 1930,
I think the market will touch 1000 again, how far it will go above 1000 is not sure
I think the market better keep it’s hands to itself.
Option interest over the past few days indicating we may go higher……
if the masses want it to go higher, we go lower
Theoretically,m yes, but look at the nasdaq.
The masses trippled the index, yet some people kept on shorting..
Irrational exhuberance.
nothing has to fall down
the internet bubble nsdq.
I am 50% long on Sep calls and 50% short on October puts. I guess since everyone is talking about market reversal usually big boys would go against the crowd. I guess the yesterday sell off was just a trap for bear to come to the market, so now big boys could use are these bearish people to make a short squeeze rally for a couple days.
Those talking about market reverals have no clue what they are talking about. We have not confirmed any downtrend yet.
However, I do believe we are in a a minor downtrend, of possibly 1 week in length, which, if enough selling occurs, could lead to a larger downtrend, possibly 1/2 to 1/3 the size of the march rally.
Today’s market action is too meekly bullish for my taste. We’ll just have to wait and watch tomorrow’s action to see where we are going.
I am holding short posiitons in August puts in sndk 16, msft 23, s 4, and ge 14 and long tiny position in bgz. I am quite confident most of my puts will expire OTM for 100% profit this friday.