4:00pm
Great trading day, I think potentially we’ll see more downside afterhours , maybe get a small little gap lower tomorrow only to reverse higher throughout the day… I will be taking off my XLF and GLD put positions if we gap lower tomorrow, and start looking to get some SSO in there for a few hours.
3:44pm
Took off 40% off my XLF PUT position… the only thing i have left is some of my GLD PUT position left and the XLF. GS short was taken off as well (sorry forgot to tell you about that one).
3:34pm
I’m out of my BEN position… i’ve had a great run with this one, the hedge fund did great, and we need to take profits here. I believe Dan is putting a stop on it and holding this one for further downside.
3:28pm
BEN, XLF crashing here… SPY about to hit the low…
3:01pm
We could be setting up for a massive collapse here… the volume to the upside in the last 15 minutes has been dead… and we are at support that has been tested 3 times already today. As long as we don’t close above 98.55.. we could be in for a nice last push lower, in which i will take profits on all my shorts that are left.
2:56pm
Stopped out of DXD @ 40.03 (0.25% profit)
2:48pm
It looks like the dow is not only breaking it’s 20 SMA 10 minute but also it’s ascending support line.. i’m happy to have put my DXD position on..
2:47pm
Stop to 40.03 (on DXD trade, entered at 39.92)
2:42pm
Moving stop to 39.95, that way my trade is profitable no matter what.
2:30pm
Intraday trade.. taking a short position right here by buying the DXD @ 39.92 (double short the dow) my stop is when the Dow hits 9180. (double bottom formation)
2:21pm
The market has been supported by the 20 SMA 10 minute on the Dow Jones… once we get a close below the 20 SMA we probably will shoot down:
1:29pm
My guess.. just an intuition.. we see new lows today.
1:20pm
The SPY 10 minute still looks like a possible inverse H&S even though it’s a little crooked . So i’m not sure how significant that is… but the shorting opportunity was when we first hit the 20 SMA 10 minute.. now i feel like it’s too late, and the risk/reward is not appealing to me.
1:16pm
Financials seeing some strengths.. the market might want to follow but for now XLF looks strong, the SPY looks like it’s forming a bear flag.
1:11pm
98.40-98.50 is strong support levels.. once this breaks we will find stronger support levels mostly during whole number prices (i.e. 98, 97) until we reach the inverse H&S neckline at 962 on SPX, 96.6ish.
1:00pm
Home index at 18… highest so far. market is not moving/selling the news… that’s a great sign for the bears… hence the market has already priced it all in, we are ready to move lower.
12:49m
Taking half my BEN put options off the table.
12:44pm
Market is at a standstill before the Housing index comes out at 1 pm… the market right now is conoslidating in a bull flag formation… it’s okay to have stops around today’s recent highs.. just in case we rally from here. The bullinger bands have squeezed together, which means a big move is about to happen.
12:21pm
The market maybe topping here… we are no longer oversold so we might get some strong resistance as the 20 SMA 10 minute is about to hit.
11:50am
Dollar strength has been the reason for the commodity sell off, including the market sell off, or vice versa. The point is, the dollar has officially bottomed in the short run, and we have a very nice inverse H&S on the 60 minute. You can see the descending red line being broken today, and we might be hitting resistance soon:
11:34am
If you’re a day trader, you’re hoping to get long on a small pull back over the next few minutes to the 98.40 level for an inverse H&S on the 5 minute. Stops are incredibly important, we’ve seen inverse H&S and H&S formations break apart when there are strong trends in place, not allowing them to complete:
11:25am
Double bottom spike here.. MACD positive divergence, we might be headed higher over the next few hours.. with that move higher i’ll be looking to add to shorts, I want to wait for a hit on the 10 minute 20 SMA of stocks.
11:15am
AAPL could be breaking down, it’s under the potential neckline of it’s H&S , this might be a fakeout and we might get a bounce.. if we get a bounce over the next day or two, i’ll be shorting this name. BEN on the other hand is just broken, absolutely broken.. this my puts are up 33% total.
11:12am
For those who remember I added to my GS short position on friday.. today we broke a major support red line that I had from whiles back, and we have a nice H&S to look at on the 60 minute, I am taking 50% off on the profits on this name.
11:01am
Where am I taking profits on GLD puts? well take a look at the 60 minute.. we have a triangle formation… I plan to take them off on support… to be conservative.. a break of the triangle to the downside will shove gold down significantly to levels under 89.
10:43am
On CNBC everybody’s throwing numbers for when this selling off ends… people are saying 975, some are saying 950… but the real number to look at is 961-962, 930, and 875. These three levels present levels where this market can shoot back up.. a break of the first 2 will get me worried about the market, a break of the 3rd would confirm that we are in a longer term trend LOWER to potential new lows.
10:40am
This last 40 minutes of action looks like a bear flag to me… we are still very close to oversold territory, but if the bears truly want they can bring this market down in the next few minutes for a double dip into the 20 level of the RSI.
10:36am
AAPL is one of the stocks I am no longer LONG on.. (longer term), I have taken all my profits from my initial positions which were taken at 96, 90, 88, and 84 a few months ago. And this is why, take a look at the 60 minute:
10:30am
We are finally seeing a more significant move to the upside, I like thinking about going short the financials soon.. starting a small short at 13.84-13.86 on the XLF.
10:12am
I want to remind people, that this week is options expiration week, which means we might see a lot of volatility in the prices, and we might get a lot of twists here and there on wednesday and thursday. So far we got a nice little bounce here not significant enough to be shorted in my opinion (I’m still overall 11% short the market with 80% cash and 9% in longer term positions that i have been taking off the table for about a month now).
10:04am
BEN showing more weakness than the market overall, it’s down around 3.3%, I have had september puts on this ever since we reached the 95 level. Support is at 91.40-91.50.. a break of that will start some panicking in this stock, take a look at the 30 minute:
10:00am
I suggest you guys look at the VIX here… it’s finally acting the way it’s suppose to, and we are approaching the 30 mark which is referred to as the fear level. There is no doubt about it, the bears haven’t proven anything yet.. I want to see 961 and 930 break before I can start thinking about a new bear market trend to new lows.
9:52am
No doubt about it, on the 10 minute we are very oversold, maybe we will get some sort of bounce here at the 10 am reversal time… I would add to shorts on a move towards the 98.85 and 99.50 level.
9:46am
BEN down 2.5%, a fall under 91.40 would be devastating for the stock.
9:38am
If the XLF breaks through 13.70, all hell is going to break lose.. I am holding those puts in there, hoping for something like that to happen.
9:30am
we are opening below a lot of support including the 20 SMA daily of the SPY.. there is some support at 98.50 though, I am taking profits here as we go. Taking some profits of on the GLD and SPY PUTS that are left… I still own my BEN and XLF puts.
4:26am
Market seems to have potentially bottomed a few minutes ago at 982.75 on the futures.. we are below the 99.50 level.. if this is sustained into the morning we will have one horrible market day. The next incredibly strong level of support, as mentioned in my previous videos is 961… (neckline of the huge Inverse H&S)
12:00am
Futures are gapping lower on weakness from asia, I highly recommend taking profits at the bottom of the triangle if given the opportunity… I will be taking all my shorts off if we open right at the support level. If we do break the triangle i’ll put all my shorts back on. Again, play the triangle don’t preemptively assume we are breaking down just yet.
Here’s the SPY 10 minutes:
I’m tempted to close my QID position here (my entry was at 26.00). It is past my target for the trade. However, Idan’s most recent post has me rethinking it.
I see what you did right there~
Why not just use a trail stop if your past your target goal and don’t need the cash for something else.
I’m holding my small SDS, DXD, and BAC positions into August max pain.
put a stop
I like to set targets and close positions when they are hit. I know that it is not the best way to maximize profits but I’m just set in my ways about some things. I am much less aggressive than many of the traders that post here.
I’m over 80% cash right now so I don’t need the funds. I’m only holding 500 shares each of QID and SDS (entries at 26.00 and 46.00 respectively) along with 200 shares of TBT (ugh).
Good luck!
Do we have that lower high yet?
Idan–credit to you and 3 min. so far. You both had a post exchange several days back about calling a top (1,018). Don’t know if it was in jest, but looks good so far.
close at 975-977
backtest 985/86 tomorrow
fail
see you at 960 wed
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Dang — my neck is only 18 inches.
JPM losing its 20ma…..10m
Although the EUR/JPY is sitting right on sup with the 20 about to x the 50? Move coming real soon just which way?
Following idan’s DXD at 39.95
Ugg.. it just stopped me out at 39.95… just tapped it. It always does this when I set a stop.. ugg.
“ugg” is not a ticker. I’m talking about dxd
GS still in a bear flag and just about to retest the neckline of two HS…
EUR/JPY breaking down now too…
Both the UUP strengthening and the Yen VS Eur? Not normal?
i am stuck and nervous in a few CIT sep. calls and could still jump out at even, but would appreciate any perspective. I want to think that mkt. may have some rebound tomorrow after the drop today which could carry my position to positive, but if this is finally the turning point for the market overall i hate to be long anything (except a short )
wow, i can’t believe you played this one only with calls.. i would have put some type of spread on it… it might get one boost higher.. but that’s too dangerous even for me to touch.
i have never done spreads before.. I am very new to all this. young and inexperienced. while i feel that it is an exciting time to live through, i know i have a lot to learn. thank you – your warning is heeded
Following, looks like bull flag, but too volitile to call.
As a new trader, here’s my advice.
Lose the options. Break even is pretty darn good.
Also trade low volatility stocks.
That’s it.
No CIT, AIG, fannie mae, etc…
One day, your goign to catch the knife trading those stocks, and you’ll probably never recover.
Calling a turning point is futile. I trade without emotions. What I see is a major correction in the rally. Will the correction turn into a new primary downtrend? We need more price action.
BAC bull flag on 10/60 min -tgt 17.10 ..
Idan do you see this too ?
too me.. this bull flag is too prolonged.. and if the market is overdue for a correction it will roll over into a sell off
IMO, the market is NEVER overdue for a correction.
Entered FAZ at 28.10 for possible new lows at end of day.
RIFIN 60m 200ma 692, 38.2% ret. 694 and major sup. 695. Seems like a logical place to go!
Should put FAZ at 31.69ish.
Doh stopped out at 28.54. Good run though.
Maybe I’ll re-enter if market consolidates
Rebought FAZ at 28.50.
and sold at 28.60. FAZ/FAS is scary.
Switched over to FAS at 65.31
Domino effect? Asian market declines lead to European market declines which lead to North American market declines. North American markets unable to break the trend and the 2% decline makes Asian investors even more nervous and accelerates sell-off, which leads to European market sell-off, which leads to North American markets to sell-off? It could be a positive feedback loop that only stops due to opex max pain control.
Careful there…the Shanghai Composite is now down 17.5% from its recent highs.
Asian markets include Nikkei, Kospi, TSEC, SSE, Hang Seng, and Sensex, not just Shanghai; but I know what you mean. I took half my August shorts off this morning for a nice profit, but I will look to add more shorts if there is a bounce tomorrow morning (hunting for max divergence from max pain). With today’s actions, a lot of stocks are going to end the day at max pain already though (changes my game plan). I’ll only go for more opex plays tomorrow and Wednesday now, not trading options on Thursday or Friday.
closed 500 shares of QID at 27.90; +7.31% from entry at 26.00; +$950.00
still have 500 shares of SDS
i’ll take 7.3% anyday
Me too! I left some money on the table but I don’t care. Trading is not my primary source of income. If I generate $1000.00 a week, I’m really happy!
prechter on cnbc right now!!!!
What did Prechter say?
basically to grab your ankles ladies..
march dollar top equal market bottom..
august
dollar bottom = market top
thanks goldmansuchs
I want lower but perfect timing for double bottom….
Closed JPM AUG 42 P $1.43 (in at $0.7, up 104%)
I still hold some JPM AUG 42 P in case it drops further.
That might have been perfect timing…
It was totally. I played JPM on August 6 and 7 for a nice 100% profit because I knew the DOW would top right around those two days. I played JPM again on Friday because of the opex reversal.
So what are you seeing now ?
I hold Sept BAC calls – barely breakeven …
Also, would be great if you could post when you enter Fritz …
I don’t know what will happen tomorrow except to keep an eye on Tokyo, Shanghai, Mumbai, and London for clues.
To be honest I had no idea that some of my orders got filled on Friday. I placed them before I went on vacation on July 31 by setting the prices in anticipation of market tops, and at the time those orders appeared to have little chance of being filled. I had 15 minutes to monitor and trade on August 6 and 7, respectively. I had 30 minutes to monitor and trade on Friday, so once I placed two more orders (strictly for opex play), I only knew they got filled when I looked at my portfolio last night. The 100% profit on JPM on August 6 and 7 was just pure luck. I am at my desk this week so as my orders get filled I will post them. My orders today were sell orders only, no buying.
I should mention that I had to look at the market action on August 6 and 7 because my charts from July 28 were showing DOW top on August 6/7, and that’s how I placed my JPM trades accordingly, but I did not know at the time that my sell order for JPM puts bought on August 6 would be filled so quickly on August 7 for a nice 100% profit.
And there she goes, heading down to test lows of the day. The real question for me now is not where we’ll finish but what the reaction will be like tomorrow. I could see this running down for another couple of days before retesting support at 965
Even with my bearish outlook, i took down a trade in MON. Oct 90 calls, price target of 100. Looks to forming a right shoulder in inverted H&S as we speak.
faz near high, C near high too.
Think better opportunity to buy C
I think stocks like GS, JPM, MS and WFC will be the ones moving FAZ this time around. All three had down days, but only GS has broken below meaningful support.
Three…i meant four, yea i can count.
Look at that volume buying it up!!
A lot of fuel sitting right here at these prices….
yeahh the 98 level is strong… everytime i see that.. i know that longer term bulls are buying in and getting rapped the next move down.
My thoughts on the XLF for today are….13.46.
haha i wish, that won’t happen today though..
Very soon!
To be honest I even see 12.34.
Someone is doing a great job at unloading here….look at that and barely a price movement!
Can someone report on what Prechter said on CNBC TIA
He turns bullish and its time to buy stock again.
Didn’t get a chance to watch him on CNBC, but maybe not too much derived from his view on TechTicker a bit ago, this is the link:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/299205/Bob-Prechter-%22Quite-Sure%22-Next-Wave-Down-Will-Be-Bigger-and-March-Lows-Will-Break?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,SPY,DIA,QQQQ,^RUT,BGZ
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1217397249&play=1
Excellent opex Monday, up more than 60% on positions I held on Friday, and up 20% on my portfolio! I plan to hold my remaining JPM AUG 42 P and BAC AUG 17 P until max pain level is reached, and I plan to hold DXD AUG 39 C into opex close (I plan to buy DXD at $39 as I believe the top was reached on August 7). I still hold a number of September and October puts.
I will look to play stocks having the maximum divergence from their max pain levels tomorrow and Wednesday using options, and only sell short stocks on Thursday and Friday. Hopefully I more than double my portfolio by the end of this week.
SRS–$10.80, FAZ–$24.75, still holding on. Stops in around 50 day.
Also, small position in DRV–thanks UNER!
Wish I had some. I suffered along with ERY, only up 9.16% today instead of your 16.37% with DRV.
Hi everyone – basic question … is there a way to buy and sell options AH as well ? I thought I heard someone mention that before – wanted to check ?
The options market closes at 4:15 EST. With ameritrade, you have to place the order before 4:00 EST.
ok – got it … thanks
TOS you can trade them until 4:15
I know it’s too soon, but I just wanted to share that…
ITS ABOUT TIME! Just last week, I’ve been getting taunted through emails/dinners about my view of the economy and how they gained so much while I lost. I reiterated that it seems like wallstreet and mainstreet seems to be detached and it’s a good time to take profits. One person went as far as advising everyone to start buying in.
Well, they are quiet today
Everyone here is bearish.. seems more like a bias then technical analysis…
Play the trend. It’s your friend. The trend is up. Connect the lows from 666 to 869. It’s up NOT DOWN.
Huh? The board is at best 50/50 but probably leaning bullish. You, 3min, Morris, FLguy are all permabulls. So I don’t know how came up with that statement. Bad day for you I guess.
I am a permabull? The last two trades that I’ve closed were QID (closed today) and SCO (closed on Friday). I play on the red team when it is profitable.
Jack, what I meant, is people are being bearish when they should be long-term bullish,.
The indicators probably do indicate a shift in trend to the downside, but it is only of a minor importance.
http://tinyurl.com/phm59l
Hey Guys. Wow. Hell of a day. As I mentoned I am out for the next two weeks of day trading. My Sept calls took a bit of a hit today, but my aforementioned OTM puts aren’t so far out of the money tonight. Some are up 100% since a week ago. So…all is well. Good job permabears.
BTW…another way to have played this game would have been to buy in the money or deep in the money (DITM) puts. The deeper, the more protection. I bought OTM puts which maximized return, but also maximizes risk. Conversely, if you’re a permabull thinking the next wave up will be huge, buying DITM calls now would pay off hugely later. Or….get OTM calls and leverage the return. Just a thought. Luck all.
Well, my long term portfolio got smoked today by 55k. Oh boy. Even my gtc of C at 3.81 and AUY triggered. That’s what happens when you’re on a plane all day.
Now I am very very longggggggg.
Good luck all.
When you say smoked by do you mean you lost it?
55k is exactly how much I’m down since march from all the shorting =P