Intraday Commentary ~ 08/14/2009

By
FocalEquity
– August 14, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

3:56pm
New Pattern: Symmetric triangle… with that i decided to take some more profits from my SPY puts, and take the 5% position that i put on a few minutes ago off, at a small loss.. Triangle is formed by descending red line and ascending bottom red line. 
SPY10min 
 

3:45pm
Added another 5% to SPY september puts.. at 100.42

3:38pm
100.40 on the SPY is the 38.2% retracement.. i’ll add some shorts there if it gets there.  Here’s a look at the spy 10 min:
SPY10min

3:23pm
I’m adding my 5% back onto GS now that it rallied almost 1% from it’s lows..  

3:15pm
If you wanted to play the long side, you would be adding right now to your longs.. for a potential inverse H&S on SPY.. i’m not fond of playing the long side here… a break of 100.08 will cause an explosion to the downside.. but if you were long and put a stop at like 100.02 or .03 then do it here.  
 

2:50pm
This sell off is dollar related not financials related… that’s why i am short gold… others that shorted oil are up nicely too.  

2:40pm
We have an inverse H&S at the 5 minute with a neckline around the 100.15, with a break and confirmation we could get a move towards of the 100.5 ish.. the XLF is shooting up here… volume however is not impressive.  

2:20pm
I am going to take more shorts off at the neckline of the H&S that i have been preaching about for 2 days on the 60 minute. This neckline sits at around 99.50-99.60. Here’s a 60 minute:
spy60min
11:30am
Hey my name is steve, Idan is going to be gone for a few more hours, but he told me  that he’s taking some puts off the table here cutting his short positions of over 80% to around 55%. Taking some SPY sept puts off  from 50% to 30% (up 15%), his GS short (lowering from 10% to 5%) which is up from the after-hours trading by about 2.5% ,  and some other stuff off the table. 

9:26am
I have to leave for the morning, my stops in place.. 

1:12am
Futures are currently flat after being up more than 0.4%, my guess is we can gap down, after the bulls closed the market at the highest levels yet (right at the 38.2% retrace). 

Yesterdays action was on much lower volume than wednesday, and we are forming now a wedge formation.. that said, we can continue trading up in this wedge for another day, i have another 30% cash to allocate… but my guess is that we can get a gap down tomorrow, as the bulls closed the highest price, and everyone who thought there would be a correction is rethinking their thesis and so the path of opposing market sentiment becomes down.  Stops around 101.85 ..

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.