6:22pm
Added 10% short GS afterhours.. H&S on this stock… daily, and even if financials rally, people are hedging their BAC, C with GS short.
4:00pm
The market ends close to the highs of the day, i expect it to continue to go up and extend it’s gains a little more afterhours and potentially reverse when futures open again..
Today’s action was on much lower volume than yesterday, and we are forming now a wedge formation.. that said, we can continue trading up in this wedge for another day, i have another 30% cash to allocate… but my guess is that we can get a gap down tomorrow, as the bulls closed the highest price, and everyone who thought there would be a correction is rethinking their thesis and so the path of opposing market sentiment becomes down. Stops around 101.80 ..
3:24pm
SPY 5 minute showing signs of an ascending triangle wedge, stops slightly moved to make sure it stays above the wedge resistance.:
3:14pm
Market got a strong bounce right here after the SPY 1 minute failed to break the neckline of it’s H&S and BAC did not break down either, BAC is sitting close to a double top area… things to rememeber today: the bulls failed yet again to rally the markets above channel support, bulls managed to hit the 38.2% retracement for the third time though. Bearish candles on stronger volume than bullish candles. Channel support now lies at 101.75 on the SPY.. but a break of 101.65 can be a massive inverse H&S on the 10 minute SPY.
3:02pm
3pm potential reversal as we are getting a H&S on the 1 minute spy now.. BAC still strong, weakness in this stock will be the trigger to new lows.
2:27pm
Inverse H&S on the 1 minute SPY… BAC is forming a double right shoulder…
2:12pm
Financials are finally showing a little bit more weakness… they have been holding this market higher led by BAC but we need to see them in negative territory in order to make new lows.. the dollar in the last few minutes has been strengthening dramatically. BAC have a potential H&S on the 5 minute, neckline at 16.60.
1:18pm
Big money seemed to push this market up on purpose so that the longs can get out of their positions and then go short, sort of like what happened yesterday…. at least that’s the way it seems for now..
1:04pm
30 yr on stronger demand, hence market is rallying.. hit the support of the channel yet again… now overbought, came in 0.15% away from getting stopped.. XLF stops are above 14.41.
12:11pm
the market is forming a bear flag on the 5 minute within a bull flag on the 10 minute… the question is which way do we go? It might depend on the 30 yr auction, 15 billion to be auctioned. That’s not a lot but low demand can push stocks down, high demand can help us breakout of the inverse H&S and higher.
11:15am
ES 5 minute showing signs of a massive inverse H&S… so my stops are slightly above the neckline… just in case we shoot higher.. On the right side the 1 minute SPY.
10:56am
The market has completely turned around, the next resistance is 101.50 which is a double top but also channel support as resistance again… a break of the double top at 101.65-75 will make me take my PUTS off the table with a 4.8%-5% loss (including some of the gains from earlier today).
10:38am
I added some back to my shorts right now on the last thrust to the 101.10 on the SPY.. I will be leaving my stops where they were before hand: 101.60 level..
10:26am
Potential ABC pattern of correction from the last half an hour of trading..
10:16am
50% retracement from todays highs to the lows was hit at 100.76… we seems to be forming a weird H&S on the 1 minute.. a breakdown will be if we break the 100.55 level. If we break higher the 61.8% retrace sits at 100.88
10:04am
10 am reversal time definitely present.. getting some bullishness.. lets see if they can bring it above 100.65..
9:55am
The ascending red line that was forming support back 2 days ago will be hit at 100… that’s the next support level, if you are 70% short the market like me, and are up about 4% on your portfolio already, take profits..
9:53am
Wow we are breaking through support like there’s nothing there, SPX 10 minutes for your convenience:
9:52am
100.45 SPY is the next support level.. after this one.. it’s down and hard.
9:47am
Market flip flopping between red and green here..it’s truly amazing how many people thought this market was bursting higher, all of the sudden horrible jobs and retail data shoves us back down to reality. We will need to see a break of 100.60 before we can see massive bulls panicking.
12:00am
Futures are slightly higher after paulson announced that he’s long BAC and a few other banking stocks. My intuition is that we move lower today though, i have september puts on the XLF, GLD, SPY and BEN. One big event today is going to be the 30 yr auction at 1 pm… the demand of this auction is going to be absolutely critical. I think a lot of bulls got trapped at the end of the day, and if we can break the 1002-1003 level to the downside we might get a strong shove down to the low 990s.
GS just being saved from breaking it’s up trend…
Not anymore! I like this move. The market must of figured out the FEDs buying it’s own bonds….
OH wait….We were going to tell you that but the release date isn’t until Feb 2083!
TLT liftage now.
TBT taking a hit though….did you make better on this one vs. yesterdays miss? Hope so…just TLT the pinball machine a little higher!!!
Didn’t play either. TLT=no options liquidity
Expect a good bounce on the RIFIN at 738/739 60m 20/50ma and 10m 200ma all together.
Not sure how this got posted here???
-Rant- Ugh, I hate it when my orders don’t execute. When S&P hit 1012.60.. SDS was at 44.68, so I put in a limit order for 44.67 just to get that extra penny. Well it decided to fall from that point and now it’s 44.94.
Well…. time to get back to work.. hope it hits 1012 once more so I can go short.
EUR/JPY at Double bottom…
Just fell lower but bouncing off minor sup….
Closed right on triangle bottom…the tail lower I think is just what’s to come.
Short bond yields are diving … stocks are next.
Hope so
Next updated chart of Idan’s channel with 38.2% Fib and multiple negative divergences in indicators:
http://i29.tinypic.com/e8juds.png
Shows the Fib resisting the most recent 30-min candle.
Link to live chart (requires subscription):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=30&st=2009-07-20&id=p12454157503&listNum=2&a=175419482
I think UUP might try filling the gap down to 23.24? Double bottom right now..
seems like the currency market is active today, with the yen looking strong
Paolo…..Aug 11th down day 12-13th up but have to close below 749.24. Daily.
i see, thanks for your tips!!!
Uptrend busted. XLF INTC et al. Will just hold last 1/4 of calls. Not chasing shorts here.
Will take some AAPL calls again for a bounce @ 166.50 ish
Bought 170s here at the gap. 1.38
CLOSED 1/2 at 1.45
CLOSED 1/4 at 1.50
Will let the rest run. Limit at 1.38
my 10 min chart shows an upward trendline that’s about a point and a half away at 1005.5. Slightly oversold condition on 10 min chart only. May get a small bounce from here, not bullish, but may pop back up slighly to form the rest of the triangle.
OK, we got the bounce. Now the question is if the top of the triangle is going to hold.
The next bubble – BANKS, yes, BANKS:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a04oVutXQybk
VWAP reversion. I wouldn’t get too bearish just yet.
I know this is for trading and I’m sorry don’t normally ever post this stuff but if you love music it’s a new documentary starting tomorrow if you don’t ignore!!! Amazing….
http://www.apple.com/trailers/sony/itmightgetloud/
Out for likely the rest of the day. Will let remaining INTC XLF AAPL C’s run. Limits at bk even. Up 35% on trades today. Laters.
Idan, do you agree S&P has an ascending triangle?
yeah i can see that too..
Don’t buy it…..the EUR/JPY backtesting the break of the HS…!
Waiting patiently for S&P to hit 1012 or some rally up so I can short them for the drop before closing..
Just getting back from my vacation, how are you guys doing? I’m holding some September and October puts that I bought before going on vacation, but my portfolio hasn’t changed much. I’m going to search for stocks for August opex play, but I will only take small positions. I don’t care which direction the market takes in the next few days, as long as I get my 50% profit everyday like the past few opex weeks.
50% profits? wow..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/6018076/RBS-uber-bear-issues-fresh-alert-on-global-stock-markets.html
JPM has something up it’s sleeve. Pennant/Triangle. Both times it hit the lower trend line it ran hard 3rd time….small bounce and selling?
Updated evilspeculator.com chart
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/2009-08-13_spx2.png
Aha! Third touch of the ascending support line and bounce. This means we will either go up from here for awhile longer or drop down from here if we cross back below the line.
But seriously folks, TA by itself is worthless. What works is common sense and knowledge of how the majority trades. And move those trailing stops up as your stock prices go up if you are long.
Treasuries rallying hard and mkt rallying, very rational mkt here.
S&P 1012.6
Bought SDS and WYNN puts and holding onto SPY puts… scary.
Ugg.. market wasn’t falling as expected.. got rid of SDS.. holding onto WYNN / SPY puts for tomorrow.
Bull flag on SPY 10min
Looking at SRS–seems we are tading in a range at this point, with bull flag (15 min.). Breakout above 12.25?
If you REALLY want to swing for the fences, DRV is a new real estate 3x bear ETF.
Thanks Uner–will look into. Would assume very volatile. Becoming more conservative, but this is when true monies are made.
Holding all call’s into tomorrow. Will short into the weekend. Grrrrreat day. Nite all. Where’s that damn martini shaker?!
ANJ: Casino’s poppin. Feel better?
Absolutely … still not break even but feeling much better … than this morning … needs to reach 8.95 – 9 for me to break even …
Closed out of BAC. Final sell price 16.93. Well see what tomorrow brings, but Im looking to increase my short exposure in the market.
my big winners on the day, X, FCX, CNX.
Just watching the tick AH. Seems a lot of stops were ripped up on the downside, then a quick recovery. Clearing the way for a move south early tomorrow? TBD
that’s what i’m thinking… i.e. my post at 4pm
Closing updated chart of Idan’s channel with 38.2% Fib and multiple negative divergences in indicators:
http://i25.tinypic.com/2u5rxuq.png
The Fib and the lower channel boundary resisted throughout the day. However, the channel has now crossed the Fib, so it will be interesting to see what happens after this.
Link to live chart (requires subscription):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=30&st=2009-07-20&id=p12454157503&a=175419482&listNum=2
Damn.. I wish I bought BGZ/FAZ today.
Good job to anyone who did.
Is anyone investing with Idan/Dan’s short-stock hedge fund?
I like the idea of shorting overbought stocks and buying oversold stocks
So far (from what I know)
- Clients have made over 30-40% year to date
- BIDU and BEN was a short pick (BIDU was ok, BEN not at all)
- I can’t find much about Dan online other than his outdated twitter
Anyone have thoughts?
Amazon was a 8% play too
Rememeber that what i do on my own portfolio does not reflect the hedge fund.. we have other plays for the hedge fund.. I’m just a riskier trader alone.
I’m still short BEN…
I hope your strategies are backtested..
you get a track record of 2 years.. to see all the trades..
I was subscribed but canceled. He NEVER cuts his losses. I think he is fairly dangerous to follow. He clients are Not up 30% – probably down 30% depending on individual stress levels. He closes a trade when/if it is profitable meanwhile the bad trades sink into the abyss. I don’t believe anyone can actually trade that why so that leads me to believe that he probably does cut his losses but does say so in order to claim an excellent closing rate.
Bottom line….don’t believe any online trading services.
each of his positions are like 2 % of his portfolio… and he’s right about 80-90% of the time so it works out.
So for a mere million, he holds 20 stocks, that’s perhaps way too much to be very profitable. JMHO.
Bad math. Assume he has a million and say, 25% cash. That make 750,000. Each stock has 15,000 avg. That would mean 50 stock. However, he does not have 50 stocks, so perhaps he is more in cash or more like 3% on average. I think the latter is more likely, but that is only based on my knowledge of the number of stocks that I think he has.
Btw: Dan appears to be a pretty good guy…just got to bearish and anxious recently…IMO. I think in the end he will make a lot of money but his followers may not because of investment spread and stress points.
Well, my data doesn’t show 80-90 except for options which are hedge (that should speak for itself).
My main point is the lost opportunity by not cutting losses. It is huge and must be part of every trading strategy. Therefore, he either (A) doesn’t have that, or (B) he doesn’t want to tell his clients that he cuts his losses because that would result in closing losses. Neither A or B is good for a follower.
you have to understand that everyone has a different type of strategy… he’s not playing the small 1% moves.. he’s going for 10% moves when things are either overbought or oversold.. he’ll wait even 2 weeks if it takes that long.. but believe it or not.. it works out… I’ve seen him have positions of up to 5%.. but general they are around the 2-3 % range.
and Dan’s investors are up 31% this year alone, as of 2 days ago… they were up closer to 40% a few weeks ago, but the market has rallied against his portoflio
Except for the onlys holding VXX, FAZ….hmmm letting me see….what else…
Not sure if you mean investors are subscribers but that us not true for subscribers. If investors are up then that proves that he is cutting his losses and not telling his subscribers.
Cool, good luck with the hedge fund!
In the end, we’re all here to make money.
Well 3min… it depends if you’re copying the same exact position size that he’s doing or if you bought 10% of your portfolio VXX and FAZ when he did… from what i know.. he actually has FAS and has a stop on it… it’s up close to 30%.