4:00pm
Market unable to hold the S&P channel, proves that this move higher was only a retest of channel support as resistance… the next likely move would be to the downside…this move up was really need to help the shorts pile in.
3:51pm
Listen to the guy who’s about to talk on CNBC in a few minutes.. he says we’re headed into a depression. I think that’s a little too bearish, my opinion is that we are headed into a double dip recession, or a very very minor depression that will last for another 5-6 years, filled with bull market rallies in between.
3:40pm
Putting stops above 101.65 on the SPY..
3:30pm
I am adding to my shorts here, we are now right around the channel support. The H&S is still in play, but most importantly, today, if we close right above friday’s close most people will turn bullish, which will be the exact last step that is needed to bring this market down.
2:55pm
Wow that last boost was incredible…. we are now at the highs of the session again, financials staying strong but NOT at the highs of the session. 101.40 is the next really strong resistance level.. retesting the channel support as resistance again.
2:45pm
With no help from the fed, it looks for now like the market is finishing it’s head and shoulders pattern, neckline at 99.50.
11:43am
Technically on a normal day, I would add to my shorts here again, but today is fed interest day, so I’m going to hold onto more cash here, decision to come at 2:15pm.
10:28am
There is that right shoulder for the H&S… on the spy 30 minute I am buying the rest of my short posiiton here.. SPY september puts were added and XLF september puts were added.
9:27am
Markets are only slightly lower… though i expect we might see some sell off very soon in the day, I have to leave for a few hours… rememeber that 99.50 is strong support, and that a break of that will spur a lot more sellers.
3:45am
Like I expected, the market has broken down to new lows… my guess is that this bearishness continues through the night and we open lower tomorrow, if we open significantly lower I will look to cover my positions at the open.
2:19am
The ES just broke down the 5 minute bear flag support level.. are we going to see a retest of the lows, and potentially a breakdown?
1:30am
Futures are about flat-slightly higher… there’s a 10yr bond auction today at 1pm , we might get a sell off in anticipation for the news.. and maybe get a sell on the rumor buy on the news type of event… If we do sell off early tomorrow I will take some profits off, pigs get slaughtered. I recommend watching my video that i posted from last night.
NYSE volume 610M shares, about
7% below its three-month average; advancers lead
decliners by 5.2:1.
- NASDAQ volume 1.27B shares, about 10% below its
three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 2.7:1.
- VIX index -1.75% to just over 25.5
ty GTrader
wow?
Bought SDS to short S&P before the FOMC.
Was a bit risky, but I felt the market rallied enough in anticipation for FOMC already.
Entry point SDS at 45.18. Very tight stops.
and stopped out already. That was no fun.
Check out UUP…
I love it….when the $$ runs the market runs. This is day 2 of this? Disconnected again.
GLD tankage. TG for stops. Made .10 on last few stragglers.
I closed my last SPDR position (1000 shares of XLU) at 29.20 a little earlier today. I am left with 200 shares of TBT and 500 shares each of QID, SCO, and SDS. I am about 80% cash now after closing out $81,600.00 in long positions today.
Bought in for more SDS. Come on UUP up.. S&P has to fall.
Bought SDS at 45.12
Stopped out at trailing stop of 45.38. I hate trailing stops sometimes.
Switched over to SSO (S&P long) at 31.02.
and sold them off at 31.13.
———– SHLD ————- sold short $77.29 ————- target $70 next week
technically this rally is a 2/3 retrace of yesterdays move lower. im looking for lower prices from here. im trading thin. got out of most shorts ahead of the meeting. looks like the technical trade can play out. use stops! this is truly gambling as this rally has been overbought for some time.
Will wait til 3:00 for next move.
AAPL limit out at -.05
100 % cash
My next AAPL S is 164.75ish
The EUR/JPY taking one for the team here.
In order to keep this dream alive we need more than a 4 bar sell…..200 and 50 holding the RIFIN. Funny how it slices right through it this morn on no news and this aft……….
BOUGHT AAPL back at 1.00
EOD 1021
If we hit 1021, is it time to go short?
Retail numbers tomorrow. I’m feeling bearish for tomorrow.
Shy of 1021…wait. 1021 today…I’ll be nibblin
I wouldn’t be surprised. I wrote earlier that we could see a 300 point rise. Headed in that direction…
Does the 38.2% retracement still apply? Could we see a double top on the 1010-1014 range or is this a stupid move? If we end around 1012-1014, I’m thinking of buying some SPY SEPT puts.
Scenario #1: EOD. >= 1018. More shortcovering to follow which could push this to 1040 by Friday.
Scenario #2: EOD at 1014 follow by orderly decline to about 970 over the next 7 trading days.
Scenario #3: all bears on stocktock.com turned bullish, market revisit March 9th lows.
I’m leaning toward #2.
———- SHLD ———– covered and look to EOD to short again.
$77.70 ———– gone for the day. good enough for me.
set additional 100 share short order at $78.40
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE.
Seems to me that the Feds Open Market (PPT) actions came in here and will carry the market to maybe 1040 or so. The ES caught tooooo big a bid to be coincidental.
pay attention to possible diamond top pattern on sp500
One more shot. SDS (short S&P) at S&P 1011 ish
actually, he said that he was holding back because of the fed – see his notes above.
I’m up 65K today…so I have no complaints. Bears are roasting from covering and mutual funds entries.
NICE! Wow. That is incredible.
A gap fill is required on consolidation for the next few days, but looks for 1008 to be MASSIVE support. The recession is over.
Next round of buying imminent. Final shakeout? Dunno.
Idan, should we go short here or wait till 1018?
I am now about 60% short yup.
This is the shorting opp of a lifetime. Today will be the top of the mkt for the rest of 2009. REITs and financials already fizzling. Use a stop above 1018 SPX in case I’m wrong.
URE still below trendline, SRS not giving up yet. Also, please get these “morons” off.
[We're pedaling as fast as we can. -- mod.]
To be balanced….Kenny’s take:
“the trade here is to short it now and use 1018 as the stop, going beyond it. just in case. it’s just in case from both sides of the trade. then pray you don’t get gapped.”
if it is diamon top pattern, 1012 is exactly the top for this rally, it depends on tomorrow’s retail sales number.
We wil cross 1020 tomorrow. Overseas markets are going to go crazy on the Fed statement.
I bought put at 1012, stop loss will be 1014, so far looks good.
We traded in the 1000 range in 2003, for 4 months. Right now it’s barely hitting a month. in this range.
SPY 60 min looks like a clear bull flag …
60, 30, and 10 min SPY – RSI is not even overbought.
Going to hold all longs overnight, unless we crack hard through 1008. I don’t see that happening and expect a bounce into the close.
I don’t see how the fed statement could be bearish unless for a consolidation play or a ‘sell on the news’ and dollar play.
Good luck all.
at support now…..exciting close.
bummer on the crack of 1008. not happy about that.
if doamond top play out, next target is 980-987 area.
sounds like a good target
gap at 980–982..fill that sob soon imho
Interesting comment Idan. I have a multi-year chart that can support what you’re saying as far as a mild depression with many rallies here and there. If you connect the Oct 07 highs to the May 08 highs, you get a parallel channel to the lows of this year and last year. that would take us downward for perhaps a decade, but not very steep. That would actually be bad, b/c we wouldn’t recover for a LONG time. My other chart shows that we are eventually heading towards the multi-year trendline from 74 bottom to early eighties bottom.
I feel good about closing all of my SPDR positions earlier in the day. I am holding TBT, QID, SCO, and SDS overnight. I had the QID and SCO positions already (buys at 26.00 and 16.00 respectively) and they are ok so far. I’m down about 1.4% on the SDS I bought this morning at 46.00 but I feel good about that buy longer term. We’ll see how it goes tomorrow.
TBT is a good hold now with fed action – nice!
So much for 1021. Irrational exuberance.
Anyhow….seems to me a lot of stops were blown (up and down), and tomorrow could be quite volatile. Still 98% cash and likley will enter XLF INTC AAPL puts tomorrow and hold the AAPL calls as a hedge. I’m out most of all next week so not too concerned either way with AUG OPEX moving ever closer. Homework to do. Night all.
BAC is ripping higher …
Not able to find the news … but something on google boards ..
————
Yes just as Mrclean says, Paulson has purchased 168 million BAC
shares, for a total investment of $2.7 billion plus. He had
previously been a big shorter of BAC and other banking stocks. This
was reported by Gasparino, CNBC.
John Paulson, an American Billionaire and Hedge Fund Manager bought
168 million shares, 2.3 billion worth @$16 in after hours.
Hopefly should be a nice day for my BAC calls … considering the roller coaster ride it has been and the -30% showing on my account or at least allw me to breakeven …
It seems this is old news(June 30th), plus looks like he is hedging with SKF? BTW I don’t know who this Paulson is & don’t care. I would be wary of these kind of news & moves AH, IMHO.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Insider+Trades/John+Paulson+Hedge+Fund+Gets+Long+BofA+(BAC)+and+Other+Bank+Stocks/4870886.html
Paulson was formerly bearish on bank stocks, so the market may take this as “good” news, even though he may have since sold his stake.
John Paulson hedge fund got long BAC plus other banks for the quarter ended June 30. Looks like the financials have their pump for tomorrow. FAZ will likely sink some more.
Here’s the link: http://tinyurl.com/qgrruv
Yup. Nice move AH
yeah.. that definitely propped the xlf up a little bit after-hours.. but keep in mind that is also very short other financials including a huge position in SKF.
It’s also possible that Paulson’s fund has sold its stake since the reporting date. Even so, the “news” is probably good for a pop first thing in the morning (perhaps to 1018-1020?) and then maybe we’ll see the drop.
Bad data.
From SOH:
http://www.mylifemytrade.com/
jim rogers is long bac too. cramer says buy a lot at 13. bet it gets there.
Cramer is averaged at 14.
sorry not rogers but kass. to above hedge head blunder
Im using this positive move to take some of my longs off the table. Only two removed so far, SIAL and BAC. Im planning on keeping those in cash for now, and will likely use the money to open buy some puts either tomorrow or monday.