Intraday Commentary ~ 08/10/2009

By
FocalEquity
– August 10, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

2:16pm
I have to leave for today, but today could actually be a total disaster if we break the channel support, the bears will bring this market to the low 990s if we do break.. and it is possible though i do expect maybe a small bounce.  Another way you can play this if you DONT want to take profits, is simply put a stop loss somewhere in the 1003-1004 range.. you’ll still be very profitable. That way, you let your gains run if we do breakdown here. 

2:13pm
We just hit the channel on the SPY, 0.5 points away on the SPX… and i’m now taking profits.. I will not be going long.. I am hoping for a break here.. the only thing i’m holding is BEN puts (5% of my portfolio) and XLF puts (5%).  
 

1:59pm
We are getting to the 2pm reversal time, but we haven’t hit the bottom of the channel yet.. this will interesting. There is still a strong chance we dip to a double low:Updated 10 minute S&P:
SPY10min
 

1:40pm
We are getting a little bit of a bounce here… again, not worth anticipating this market, until the S&P channel breaks you have to remain more bullish than bearish when close to support levels..  

1:18pm
We are hitting 61.8% retracement and we are very close to the bottom of the channel, i’m taking 50% of my SPY puts off here and the rest at the bottom of the channel leaving me with only BEN and XLF PUTS both being really small positions.  

11:10am
We might be breaking down the channel. Unless it gets saved in the next 5 minutes… we might get a shoot down here… 

11:01am
Market still trading in what seems to be a wedge formation or a channel at least, to the upside on the 1 and 5 minute charts… it does look like a bear flag… but be on the lookout for any breakouts or breakdowns… My guess is we breakdown, seeing the weakness in some leading financial stocks like GS. 

10:27am
BEN puts working out really well here…  

10:15am
On your left the ES 5 minute Inverse H&S which almost broke out but moved back below the neckline… and on your right the 1 minute SPY, which is showing a BEAR flag channel formation.
spy1min 

10:03am
Market is already hit the 50% retracement..  finding some support there… we do have a potential inverse H&S on the ES 5 minutes… and on the XLF 1 minute, but the volume isn’t there yet. 
 

1:36am
Futures slightly lower… again I’m sticking to my Channel trading until it fails.. i’m short now.. but will look to cover when we hit the bottom of the channel. Will only go short once the channel breaks to the downside. I want to see weakness in the financials to make this sell off more sustainable. 

10 minute SPX:
spx5min

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.