4:00pm
Market ends the day very bearish… this market probably has topped today, at 1 I expected the market to fall close to 101, and we got 101.14… again, play the channel, because that’s what has worked for me for the past 3 weeks. Have a great weekend, i’ll have a few videos for you today and tomorrow.
3:57pm
H&S broken down now… with the double shoulder..
3:53pm
It looks like we’re forming a double right shoulder on the 3 minute before we break down.
3:48pm
Market is potentially breaking down the H&S now… I think it would be very bearish if we end around these levels.. hopefully below the 101 level, that I was hoping for mid day.
3:38pm
Just wanted to show you the H&S on the 10 minute SPY:
3:28pm
Bottoming 10 minute candle here.. for a neckline H&S formation.
3:07pm
GS showing some damage in its stock, breaking some support levels here… 101.30 on the SPY will be the neckline of the H&S that is forming…
3:05pm
Dollar is so incredibly strong…. that should keep pressure on commodities + lower the SPY down. We can finally be seeing a little bit of a H&S formation on the 5 minutes.
3:00pm
We seem to be forming a bear flag on the 5 minute SPY…. the bullinger bands are very very tight.. we’ll see if we get a movement here. Dow Jones already below the 38.2% retracement, if it ends here, we can say that we’ve seen some resistance finally.
2:27pm
We’re getting a little bit of a roll over.. I’d like to see us finish under 101 today.. that would be nice… but right now we just hit the 200 SMA 1 mimute support level.
1:34pm
SPX 60 minute, shows how well this channel is playing out:
1:30pm
The market is now hitting the top of my channel, again i’m PLAYING the channel, like i’ve been for a while. The 38.2% retracement got busted intraday, but it probably will form resistance on the daily. I’m adding to some of my shorts here.. i’m about 25-30% short.
1:14pm
Hey guys I was gone for the morning, but hey we are now at the 38.2% retracement, also really close to the top of the channel yet again, it’s time to go short.. go buying SPY PUTS here at 100 strike, and will be buying some financials puts too.
12:00am
The futures are flat to slightly down right now. I suggest watching my video from last night, but most importantly I want to let you guys know, that even though I do believe that we could have a shoot upwards because we hit some strong support, I do still favor the downside on the monthly scale.
Here’s a 60 minute S&P Chart:
Pivot point battle SPX. Tell time
Closed last UYG calls .70 (in .42)
All RED team now
My trend line close below 1010 today on the SPX would be a big smile for the weekend.
Positioned short :0
Bought more DIA puts at DJI 9408 area.
Looking at 1,017 in the S&P index to be the possible top here.
What makes you say that?
1,017 and a fraction would be the point at which wave v equals wave i at the minute level. 998.54 – 992.49 = 6.15. Then add that difference to wave iv which is 1011.02. That gets 1017.17. We’re there now as I type this, so I may be wrong if the market goes much above this.
GS retesting its day low.
I’m in for now- see if it takes us higher into EOD.
And out. That trade isn’t working. Sidelined,
EWI….Resistance at at 1018.
Hit it on the dot.
XOM breaking out big time…..
SPX R2 broken. R3 1021ish
RUT hits R3 now
Unreal…..off to see if I can’t scrape an elbow on the old DH bike! Enjoy the day.
blacks the new white.
Hope some of you jokers took my post seriously this am (8:35) and covered your shorts,
see #14
Whether FIBS are useful or not is debatetable. There is no statistical significance that markets retrace at these levels, however, they may be self-fufilling if enough people use them.
It is interesting to point out that the 38.2% retracement did not provide resistance (seems like it once again in 2009) and found large resistance at the 50.0% retracement.
Go long at these levels? No thanks. Look at this chart of the ES minis. I agree the trend is up, but buying now is gambling. No offence if you went long today.
I think you’d be surprised that IMO we see 960 before 1100.
http://tinyurl.com/ntcjqw
Note: I meant that during the internet bubble, when we rallied from the bottom, 38.2% did not serve as resistance. The same thing looks like it is happening in 2009.
Don’t feed the trolls
Hey FL. Thnx for the S/R post earlier today.
Yup
This channel is awesome. It’s like fischer price stock trading. I push little buttons and I make money. In FAZ at 24.27 with tight trailing stops. I’m triple nuts!
GS LOD
Need some falling AAPL’s now
the $ is up and market up . why?
Dollar was due for a nasty bounce up, I think the latest count had it at only 4% dollar bulls so it was a very lopsided crowded trade.
Because it is “new normal”
tihi, yes today would be the first time in a while that Dollar and the market didnt have an inverse correlation. Not sure what to make of it.
Hey Morris! Bet you a buck we end up in the Green!
Ha, I think I’ll pass on that bet!
Hmm, GS is at the down and at LOD. It’s maybe the only financial down. Ironic, the company that engineered this short squeeze ramp job is the only one down.
GS leads. I think others will follow. My FAZ position is up 4% and looking good so far.
“2:27pm
We’re getting a little bit of a roll over.. I’d like to see us finish under 101 today.. that would be nice… but right now we just hit the 200 SMA 1 mimute support level. ”
I’d like to see us finish under 66 today.. that would be nice…
I use http://www.daytradingradio.com to know when the bulls get tired buying. I’d like to know what everyone else is looking at besides charts, EWI, stocktock, and evilspeculator. Anything?
Are you using their paid service? How is it?
USO tankage. Down elevator
are we seeing a H&S forming for the day?
& XLF & AAPL
Not yet.. we’d need to see a show to the 101.40 first and then we will form a right shoulder…
A close under 101 would put a nice topping doji on the daily chart. And volume is good too!!!
Neg Consumer Credit should keep the lid on things…maybe.
- $10B vs Est -$5B
BAC rippin lower. Will hold AAPL XLF INTC puts into Monday
Put option prices for DIA and SPY just jumped.. It seems like people are expecting a fall at the end of the day..
Right shoulder forming now. hmm.. doesn’t seem like there is enough time for the right shoulder to form and fall..
is it the right move to just hold on for the weekend for the H&S to complete and break?
I doubt that this would happen, but if we could close today below 992, then we would have a red candle for the week, and it would look as if 1,000 couldn’t hold on the weekly charts. Just a thought.
A stocktwits poster said Buffet is selling off GS- the reason for GS’s late day tank. No source on the post.
Anyone of you hearing the same thing?
Took 18% $$$$ on 1/4 XLF puts. Great day overall holding the UYG calls into the rally. Lost .10 by not holding to the top but profits are profits. How about a nice orderly close at 1010.10
Have a great weekend all.
You know things are going well when all of your long positions are green (TBT, XLP, XLU, and XLV) and one of your two short hedges (SCO) is not only green as well but outperforming the longs!
Good job
What is everyone holding for the weekend?
Assuming we end at the right shoulder.. I have DIA/SPY puts, but not so much.. but isn’t it a really great time for shorts..?
H&S + right under 38.2%?
convincing myself to go in for more … but don’t want to wipe myself out if something unexpectedly great happens.. but today’s unemployment news and this weeks optimism was great enough wasn’t it?
I think staying short is wise. Over the weekend, I’ll check evilspeculator.com for the next scheduled POMO intervention. We can still drop despite that. In fact POMO might help to create the top line in a downward channel.
Holding my FAZ.
We could just trade sideways on monday, heck that’s what I’m expecting.
You guys have a good weekend. I’m on vacation next week and likely wont be around at all. Be careful and since no one else has done it today I am calling it a top
I have, and I agree!
Take care ck
Short
SPY 101.73 (self-explanatory)
SQNM 5.31 (evening star on the daily)
SNY 33.19
Hold BGZ $26 and FAZ $30 calls
1018.00
maybe we’ll retrace to 811.00? :d
Sometimes it pays to stick what the chart says..
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/2348194:Photo:32161?context=user
Hmmm. 1010.41. Damn close. See post #26 Ok…..pass the vodka. Later.
Still watching after hours for 15 minutes of futures trading.
Gosh.. with how much slaughtering I’ve gone through in the last 6 months, I didn’t want to get too greedy to lose it all again…
Bought today for next week
3% DIA aug puts
1% SPY aug puts (wanted to add more but missed the close)
20% FAZ
40% SDS
Have a great weekend everyone!
OK, great trading day. emini has dropped about 3 more points after hours. I’m going to take off and read the EWI short term update later tonight. bye!
Will be great if you can share a summary with us as well ..
“EWI short term update”
I have had a subscribtion for years.
The ew-stf is not reliable at all, I only have it becaause it is part of the package iI have.
Includes elliotte wave theory by Bob Pretcher, published once monthly.
Steve Hochberg writes the ew-stf and it is basically worhtless.
His forecast is published Mon Wed Fri evenings.
Basically states mrkt is going to go “up”, “down”, or “sideways”.
He will then take credit for his call in the next short term update!
FWI, he did inorm us tonight that he will be on vacation next week.
And that someone else will fill in to write the updates (maybe we get a real honest to goodness forecast) !
I heard from my friend, big guy bought a lot of put option for Sep
This site is soooo bearishly stupid.
Everywhere I look is bearish cept CNBC? I do know what you’re saying though. Have not heard from you in awhile…….
I’ve been cleaning Cramer’s pool for stock tips – been working out well. Plus my budy at MS explained how the show really works. Best to you, BP. I remember you having some great calls.
You have to be bearish on today’s action..
Link to GS forecast
They are not bullish at all
http://tulpenwoede.tornflag.com/statemar.pdf
Thanks for the GS forcast.
Where did you get this?
Somebody posted it on the FAZ board on Yahoo yesterday.
It’s comments like this that has driven many stocktock participants away. Just plain insulting.
S135….all well as they should unless the commentators grasp a better understanding of all the gears that are moving…not just one or two. Anyway, it is just my opinion and I’m entitled to it.
Idan….the bearish action was the devil in the jobs details. That’s it. That is big but it affects sectors and can be overcome after overbought situations calm down. I’d be more bearish if the market ignored it and shot up more.
Oct. thru March–$450,000 profit
March to date–$350,000 loss
I am a commentator who does not grasp “all the gears that are moving”. If I did, I would not be posting here, rather I would be meeting Obama as CEO of GS! Just my opinion and I am also entitled to it.
This site so so bullishitsihly stupid!
This is okay FLguy–received family monies (CRE), going through divorce, don’t believe in brokers, nothing else to do at this point. You can call bullshit, but don’t care–your posts are teaching me along with others. Unfortunately, I have been stubborn in the last several months, thinking that new administration would not push this market up. Looking at longer term, still feel comfortable with my short positions.
Thanks. Agree.
On a more serious note….I fully expect THIS Idan H&S to play out. Bullishness is near a peak.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p11391426412&a=164488777
EWticians I follow (Dan, Ken, Roy, Shanky) and TAticians (chartpatterntrader, evil speculator) some more even-handed than others, point to the end game of lower and lower lows.
As of this minute (subject to change), Idan’s SPY channel could break down here, or bounce to the boundary’s one more time. Either way (as posted here weeks ago) the October-November swan is coloring it’s roots blacker every day. Sooner than later the signs of a double dip recession will be evident and the flush button will be hit.
I keep my trading account 50% cash for swings either way. I’m finally starting to nibble those out-of-the-money puts posted here weeks ago. Risk-reward.
In the meantime,
p.s. If you bulls have some arguements for higher highs besides “go with the flow” bring it on!
The only things that’s fueling this market’s upward move ffor the past 5 months are:
1) endless stream of better than expected numbers from public companies and the feds; the bad ones are downplayed
2) endless waves of short covering
3) endless supply of low priced stocks that are down more than 90% thus perceived as attractive buys
It will only take one of these three to stop working to kill the rally. I’m sure that’s going to happen soon but will it happen before we hit 1100 first is anybody’s guess.
Are you in the boat of Idan’s call for market topping on Friday?
Can’t we all just get along and make some money !
JROD, if you are out there, good call–do you still expect 9,450 with H&S breaking down?
A retrace down not mean a crack. Blind monkeys will do their “I told you so” dance upon every banana found.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy
Idan,
Do you think S&P stop at 1010 for a reason. its the previous day top and become support on Friday?
Nate
Here’s the real unemployment data using government charts:
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/employment-situation-in-chart-form.html
Look out below