12:00am
I’m flying to NYC for the weekend so i’ll be gone friday-monday. Here’s a 10 minute SPY chart which should help you make decisions, you should try and talk about your positions with each other so that everyone gets a sense of what they are thinking.
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GS……..
That’s why I stay away from it.
The neckline of the HS is just below the 20ma now and rising! So hard to tell with the 20 about to x the 50. Going to be interesting.
SPX is back testing the 50% line of the ascending channel that has set up over the past two weeks, I think for the last time. Had a nice shooting star on the five-minute after this little push up. I’m still of the opinion it’s a fake out on the descending triangle and we’ll push lower.
SPY that is…
hmmm, looks like a bull flag to me.
i say we pop over 1000 in the next few days.
10 minute candle just closed above that 50% line…looks like I might be wrong and that bull flag could be playing out after all. We’re currently finding resistance at the trend line from the two peaks from yesterday, but not sure if it will hold.
If the dollar was not as weak as it is today, I would have agreed with you. I think we are going to have a strong close and strong open on Monday
2:01 PM Now that FASB is confirming Jonathan Weil’s take on new mark-to-market rules, Daniel Indiviglio is saying to watch out this fall, because the markdowns are going to shake the financial world.
http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/07/mark-to-market_is_back_–_with_a_vengeance.php
Still waiting for confirmation of the break of the triangle … need this 10 min candle to close above 99.18 … also this will break the 50MA which has been holding us down as resistance …. if it doesn’t then need to wait for confirmation ..
From then on .. the path of least resistance seems to be up …
Mo – cannot access the Social site from work … so will take a look in the evening
Breakout confirmed … a while ago ..
– sorry was away from my desk
Yesterday was day 146 of the rally. I can’t find any instances of a bear market rally lasting longer than 147, can anyone else? Or is this something more than a bear market rally?
Interesting. How far back are you testing this thesis?
1929
I don’t think there is any historical precedent of trillions of dollars being spent by governments on stimulus. This is an artifical rally.
147 day cycle? = 21 week cycle..
Cycles tend to run in 41 bars.
I.e..
Bottom will be on bar 1, top will be on bar 21, next bottom on bar 41.
This would make sence gunsgutgold.
I also have a 21 day count (a turning point is therefore near)
Wow, Zee. i didn’t know that. Very good to0 know and thanks.
most BIG charts, like a monthly chart of dow or the s&p, are at large resistance areas…like large moving average lines.
These monthly charts seem to take resistance more seriously than a freaking 1 minute chart like most of the traders on stocktock like to look at.
I have a hard time figuring out this move, but it does seem like there is still more upsides. This weird move could continue for another week with upside target above SPX 1000, but seeing that we’re already close to it and I am hedged, I won’t worry about it. I am going on vacation in three hours and I will take my mind off the markets for a couple of weeks. I might pop in once or twice to see how things are going with all of you. Best of luck in your trades. Take care.
Have fun.
Hint on the move:
http://tiny.cc/bDw0I
Nailed iv, v to come, perhaps.
P.S. My portfolio is setup for some nice gains if somehow we have a Black Monday kind of event next week. Never say the markets won’t go down and surprise us.
Bought UNG. All industrial commodities (oil, copper, zinc, coal stocks & steel stocks) are up except natural gas and POT. Natural gas tends to follow the others.
Bounced off the downtrend line on some serious selling.
Its going to be fun filling all these gaps on the way down.
Make take 5 years at this rate!
The dollar has firmed but it needs to rally EOD.
There she blows.
Tanya…you normally play GS? Take a peek. Neckline.
Yeah, I see that.
Or it was you….haven’t seen you for a bit!
It’s a little early so it may be a fake out but something to watch…
watching….
Field season for me. Hiding out of the sun for awhile right now and eyeing a cod brew.
What you playing these days? I’m sidelined. Hoped for an afternoon TNA or TZA scalp but can’t get a feel for what the hey the market’s doing. GS isn’t giving me a hint either.
cod brew = cold brew. No fish thanks,
Possible H&S on the SPY one minute…neckline at 99.
Hi crew. Just got back in. Trying to catch up on the day’s action. Lks like we had a serious sell-off into yesterday’s close. Any consensus today’s patterns speaks of the same?
Dollar must be on its behind…commodities blazing. (Stating the obvious).
I sold some puts to take advantage of this bullish action, and then the market sells off….
http://inthemoneystocks.com/n_rant_and_rave_blog.php
Alexxxxxxxxxxxx. Where the heck are you? No contrarian glm n’ doom posts?
I think he is off and about, not sure if he is coming back. He got into a tizzy yesterday with Morris for no real reason and then took off.
Now that’s sweet; thanks for thinking of me. I’ve been checking out other sites after having an online fit here, an act of “flaming” if that’s the correct term. In any case, I’m probably better suited to sites where swearing is allowed (and at Evil Speculator, it may even be encouraged) and humor, raunchy or not, is appreciated.
For old times sake, I’ve got a scary one for you…from Karl, of course:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1278-Uh-Oh….-GDP-Interpretation.html
Best of luck, Valerie. I’ll look for you…
Got stopped out of my APPL Sept 165 call @ 6.75 … should have sold at 7.40 when I had a chance …
Anyway can’t get broke making a profit … also a possible H&S on the AAPL 10 min chart .. .so better to get out …
A Kenny chart – possible LD of wave 1 down. Seems to be plausible.
http://tiny.cc/pNNy7
We need a breakdown below Thursday’s close. It doesn’t need to happen today.
possible scenario
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=7&id=p29626200919&a=174087876
Window dressing for end of the month…
Nice little battle now between the window dressers and the go-home-flat crowd.
afternoon all…could bond market rally be EOM rebalancing and Fed. helping to prop up Auctions…it seems that bond traders will take short term gains at some point…check out LQD (Corp.Bond ETF) it looks overbought…pretty trend line…GLT
hi stranger. GL back to you.
$VIX just blasted huge.
Big sell by EOD in stocks. Just watch. These pros are a bit scared going into the weekend.
I don’t see it happening.
There is a 100% correlation today between the price change in the SPY and the percentage change
Real-Time: 98.94 0.27 (0.27%) 3:46pm ET
After a week like the past 2 weeks, you gotta take profits. EOD and EOM is always definitely a good reason. There’s nothing like a realized gain (instead of unrealized gain) to show off to your clients.
good call! hope you made some $$$ on it.
??? the market barely moved at all (something like 0.2%)
Pretty good rally in the 10-yr bond today. Wonder why? It is ironic that yields on the 10-yr is lower than we were at 950 on the S&P… Maybe they are expecting a big correction?
I think it might have something to do with the dollar tanking on the realization that GDP growth was 100% govt spending.
And nearly $70/barrel on crude oil…
Crude oil:
Looks like huge stop loss went thru on the move above $68.80 Narly 6000 contracts went thru in the Sept contract.
Now that all the stops have been cleared to the upside. I’m short looking for lower levels
next week.
Pete
Thanks Pete
monthly EMA13 = 986.86. Must….close….under
Yeah, but some TA’s would argue you’d need 2 monthly bars above it to confirm the breakout…
this is just another consolidation day. this market will go to 1005 monday and drop from there
I’m hoping for another day of consolidation monday- I wanted to get long for the fluff, but I think a Monday shoot up is a distinct possibility.
The S&P 500 is up 12.27% since the open on Monday, July 13th. That is all.
I’m off for a vacation for a week. Leaving a few /ES 900 Puts on while I’m gone as I think I’ll come back to the VIX higher (up 12.3% since it bottomed at 23!) and the SPX lower.
Have a great week everyone.
Anyone holding into the weekend?
some vix calls and bac puts
Well today’s flat was pretty much what I expected. Looking for a few more days of this then more upside. Don’t fight the power! The sooner we are all convinced it will go higher the sooner it will reverse. The trick is to take small positions.
er- flat close I meant to say.
What do you all think of this Weekly chart? I have been saying for weeks that the $DJUSFN would test the 52-week SMA, and that point would also represent a double top of the move higher since March at $232. Not to mention the $232 line on the chart has been HUGE support and then resistance over the past year.
The financials are still the bellwether of this market, so I’m thinking this could be a reversal point,. Until there is a clear break of this 52-SMA, I am not convinced…especially when considering how low the volume has been in the past couple of weeks across the board.
Perhaps we backtest the 30week SMA which has been pretty consistent resistance over the past 2 years, so it should be support at least once..?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSFN&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p69101399254