3:50pm
Dow Daily Chart… if we end below 9175 we would be ending below the ascending red line resistance and that would be bearish in for tomorrow:
3:41pm
986-987 is incredibly strong SUPPORT on the SPX… I think that’s the next place to go long potentially:
Here’s a 60 minute:
3:34pm
Triangle is now breaking to the downside.. that is incredible… we were a little overbought and that long of mine ended with a 0.2% loss.
3:11pm
The SPY seems to be consolidating right now on the 1 minute.. we did have one strong red candle but ti failed to break back into the triangle.. we’re sort of drifting lower and we might get one shove up higher with that.
3:04pm
We are potentially breaking the triangle formation.. 99.55 is the resistance.. and we broke it on the 1 minute and retested it.. maybe it’s worth taking a long position here with a stop under 99.45
3:00pm
Marketing could still be forming a bera flag within a triangle formation on the intraday.. i’m a little worried going long.. i rather wait a little bit and go long if the market does sell off.
11:08am
The market has started to retrace, what i’ve done is put my fibonacci retracement from todays’ low to the high. Though i’m very very worried going long before we see the bond auction… I’ll wait until 1 pm… the market might sell off in anticipation.
9:27am
Notice how we’re about to above almost every resistance line that i have on my SPY 60 minute Chart:
I do expect some form of retrace to go long on… and will probably take any profits on BIDU if possible… and put stops on my CM PUTS.
12:00am
Futures are up already pretty nicely after breaking out of the bull flag channel on the ES… that doesn’t mean we will shoot up tomorrow.. I think we might have some choppiness to overcome first. 7-yr bond auction will definitely put some pressure on the market if the auction goes badly again. Many people are thinking we end at the 38.2% retrace at 1005-1010, I think we might retrace from there but the ending of this P2 wave could be 1040-1050.
if vix go to 0 this market will keep going up.this is not market this is a big mess.
I posted earlier today about the “Panic Line”. This is the line in which, if breached, will yield the next wave of crash that could take us to the bottom of the bear market channel, which will be at SPX 350 range by the end of this year. I expect that when the markets hit this line in the next decline, it will bounce off the line once, and then a collapse follows two to three weeks after that.
Here are the charts:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx-pl?context=album&albumId=2348194%3AAlbum%3A33225
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/djia-pl?context=album&albumId=2348194%3AAlbum%3A33225
350 by EOY?
LOL that would be crazy. I’ve never heard that one before.
That’s where the bear market channel support sits at EOY. Note that as soon as the channel support is hit the next time this whole thing is over, so SPX may not (and I don’t think it will) hit 350 by year end.
Just a clarification, the bear market channel is descending, and that’s why the next hit could be at a higher number than SPX 350.
FYI: These channels are dropping at 1.2pts/calendar day. Very steep!
I have charts showing that sub-400 possibility. At the moment it seems unthinkable, suggesting it is highly likely.
Current SPX GAAP earnings areflat at $7/quarter, or $28/yr = current PE= 990/28= 35.
Bear market bottoms have always been made at a PE<10 (all 5 major bear market bottoms this century), so it is pretty likely we have a deep dive ahead of us still unfortunately. A 35 PE is way overvalued since revenues are not going to grow very much until people start rapidly increasing their spending, which few are.
I agree with your long-term targets, but Gerald Celente has us bottoming in 2012.Other textbooks have us bottoming in 2016.
Warren Buffet uses 17-year cycles in his investment planning and if we are truly in a trading range in the markets starting from 2000 the bottom won’t be seen until 2017… Sub-400 by year end? Holy s$*! There’s only 5 months left.
For example: we had a 16.5 year dormat period beginning in the mid 1960s in which movement in the sp 500 was sideways.
This trading range was followed by a 17.5 uptrend in the s&p 500 which ended around the turn of the century.
Htisorical cycles suggest that this present dormant period should last roughly until the years 2016-2017
Also researchers have found the relationship between the U.S birth rate and the sockmarket. A high correlation exists between the U.S birth rate and U.S stock market performance 46 years later.
Should this relationship continue, the birth rate data projects a major stock market bottom aroudn 2020 followed by another major, but slightly weaker rise than 1980-2000, into about the year 2040. (which also coincides with the projections of the K-wave–kondratieff)
S135 replied:
July 17th, 2009 at 7:31 am
“Scaling into shorts is not a bad plan if you can stand a bit more potential heat. The $VIX wil bust out of it’s 10-month wedge without much warning. The SPX needs to get to a PE of 10 to be at a bear bottom. Its PE is 59 right now according to Standard and Poors.” —S135 on July 17th.
SPX was around 940 when that advice was given. Even though the SPX has gained 50 points in 2 weeks, apparently its PE has plummeted from 59 to what is it with todays calculations, 35? I guess any argument, so long as it is a bearish argument.
The 2007 top and the P1 wave 2 top stopped at the weekly BB, which now is 990. Might be tough sledding to squeeze much more.
You think this may be an intermediate top?
It’s a possibility.
Here is a weekly Dow chart spiking the upper 20-wk BB (blue arrows). Previous instances consistently led to pullbacks (which doesn’t mean it will happen again):
http://i32.tinypic.com/rrmu5t.png
The indicators are overbought for a bear market. However, they could become more overbought before a reversal. Also, the 20-week MA now slopes upward, which in the past has seen pullbacks after spiking the upper BB to be relatively shallow. I am short, but will be watching for a bounce upward from the 20-week MA above 8500 or from the lower 20-week BB near 8000. Similar considerations apply to charts of other indices.
Idan – what are you seeing right now ?
Day light ???
This board sems to be dead!
and….the dead men walk
Here is my plan. I think we could get a sell off until around 3:17, for a recovery as usually happens. I will start building a small long position right now. Then tomorrow I am incline to believe that we will sell off a bit more perhaps until 9150-9125. I will start buy some more if I see weakness in the morning. Building my long into next week. My stops will be around 9025 (about 6%). I am expecting the market to go up to 9680 like I posted earlier. At this point I will sell all my longs.
FYI: The $INDU is already significantly outside the weekly BB.
Do they always come back inside the BB? (I’m a novice on Bollinger Bands.)
Just look at the weekly tops vs the BB.
My view is we have bottomed in the dollar and vix and these tend to happen a few days before equities.
Your going long?
Don’t fall for the trap.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLlzqe0UAMo&feature=channel_page
Please watch this video.
It resembles exactly to what’s happening right now in the markets.
Cramer basically says after getting a 360 point down day, “We went up too fast”.
At your calculations we’ll be at 100,000 on the DOW by 2020.
it’s at the 4:50 min mark.
Bought 200 shares of BGU at 42.10. If we get another pull back I will load some more if not this will be my position for the move up.
You gotta stay long this market until the trend changes.
Symmetrical triangle formation… This is a continuation pattern. Looks like we’re re-test the broken wedge support after all. Scalp orders in.
Oops, read the charts wrong. Cancelled scalp orders. Placed order for CVX put. It will be a quick in-and-out.
Has anyone drew the Broadening top formation with the closes on the candlesticks and not the highs(on the SPX)
When I do this I get a breakout to the upside..
Are we going to see a B wave for this C leg up? WOW!
Did anybody get any PMT? The new PennyMac Mortgage Company, made up of ex-vets from Countrywide to go out and buyup these subprime assets and then re-work the mortgages properly. The IPO was today. Trading currently at $19.15, debuted at $20.
Custom Max-Pain is now between 96 – 98 on SPY (~960-980) for August expiration.
My guess is that 999 will be the top.
If they get beyond that, I expect 1111.
The hourly is telling me it’s done.
Thank goodness!
T-I-I….Stocks staged a sharp rally out of the gate today, which tells us that wave (1) up has not yet topped, that the recent sideways to down move, which was quite shallow and brief, was too brief to be the coming wave (2) corrective decline. The sideways move earlier this week was likely a subwave 4 within a five wave rally for (1) up, and that today’s rally is the start of the final 5 up of (1) up. The recent sideways to down move this week was a bit out of proportion to be wave (2) down, given its brevity and shallow decline, and was slightly out of proportion to be wave 4 down, as it was slightly larger than the wave 2 down move a few weeks ago, but it fit better as wave 4, It looks to have tracked a sideways triangle pattern, which is more typical of a wave 4. What is not certain is how high wave 5 up will take prices.
That guy is losing it.
He is losing it? No offense, but coming from the guy who said my long position in the market was “rather risky” a few weeks back, that is hard to swallow. Your bearish charts and positions have been wrong for months.
That being said, I do appreciate the work that you put into your charts and your willingness to share them. However, it seems like you only see things one way.
Before anyone goes long and buys this dip. Check out the UUP 10m over the last week or so.
As well GS. 158!!! If it pulls back to this it may just see 150 again!
hmmm, didn’t see that selloff coming.
btw: Am i the only one who looks at daily charts of the indices and shakes their head in amazement at the number of unfilled gaps ???
LOL … 10 now or so?
They’ll fill. I thought the same thing on the way down in Jan and Feb. They’ll fill.
What happened at 3:30? What caused the drop? Programmed trading not working?
It was me closing my massive long position.
joking aside thats what it really is. Profit taking because this move is fake and we know it. Going long and profiting makes me feel dirty but at least I dont lose money.
That was relatively massive for the day !
Maybe they’ve decide to bait the Bears one more time.
Let’s close lower than the open on the SPY to get a nice scary black topping candle. 98.83 was the open.
The tech already painted theirs. Good night Irene!
Program trading working perfectly. They just reversed the direction.
Got stopped out of my DDM call scalp +25%. I should’ve raised my stop price for a 40% scalp… Oh well.
1 more percent to fill the gap!!
this feels like march 6th in reverse….
market callers were looking for 650 or so
we bottomed at 667 at 3:30 on friday and zoomed up to close.
similar sentiments the other way around this time
Yeoppers.
insiders selling, ie. earning problems?
Chevron reports tomorrow…
Still watching CIT–if bankruptcy, many franchisers lose, thus small businesses go broke!
down go down to 972
That topping candle on the daily Qs is a work of art!
In my experience, that’s one of the most reliable signal of a reversal (if not THE most reliable).
Blindly went with what Idan said.. 986-987 possible support? I bought some SSO.
Ready to have my other ball ripped off tomorrow
Dangit.. just read about the DJI ending under 9170 is bearish.. sounds like I will have my ball ripped off tomorrow.
Glad my DDM calls got stopped out for a profit. My portfolio now only has AXP calls to protect my AXP shares short. Will not make a trade tomorrow unless I see definite signs of reversal.
i declare TODAY the top of the whole stinking bear market rally.
I just want to be the first out the door officially.
if the markets go up 300 pts on some fake GDP numbers tomoroow i will not be around to defend my predictions. you can call gs at that point
I don’t think we hit the top yet.
Obama just stated “The beginning of the recession is here” yesterday. If market crumbles tomorrow (end of the week) due to bad GDP numbers, his statement would be another famous youtube clip.
Without his statement, I would be bearish too, but a scared bear.
Based on charts (technicals were horrible today) at SPY 99.85 I wanted to get real short. Started at 99.80 and never got a chance to add more (cheaper anyway like I thought). Patience paid off today… that last 20 minutes was BEAUTIFUL!! Still holding 50 SPY 96 puts and 1K SRS at 15.10, also rode both sides of SPG today only to get out of my longs at the double top and go short about 5 minutes after. I won’t say the top is in as long as the PPT can afford to buy 38 Million Dollars worth of shares in GS end of day.
Sorry forgot to say I had found a ton of support last fall at the 99.85ish area, hence my target.
I AGREE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The most powerful index, the $NDX hit the majoR upper down channel line and bounced off. The daily and weekly topping candles are in folks.
THIS IS HUGE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://i32.tinypic.com/dq0qo3.png
Looks just like SPY does on weekly
Sorry I dunno how to post a chart. It did hit that similar upper trendline however, so made me look for the resistance levels. I never put stops in today because I had that much conviction and patience. I can’t wait to swing some puts in this market. Next week should be the tell.
I strongly feel the top is in, and have placed my bets accordingly. Volume in the last 30 minutes was HUGE and to the DOWNSIDE. Almost 30% of SPY volume for the day came in the 30 minutes, check it out.
came in the *last* 30 minutes
JOYG is a good trading stock, don’t know why no one here trade it. It works pretty well for me both way.
I backed up the truck on SDS at 46.66…made a boat load
It closed only 1.6% up from your buy point.
It can still be a boatload say if he bought $1,000,000 worth. That’s a $16,000. Not a boatload but a nice lobster dinner =P
$500 in 1 day trade is a boatload 4 me
I think calling the top is a bit early IMO. We still haven’t seen tomorrow
The volume on the e-minis was incredible today. Looks like the traders were having a hell of a day.
To all my friends here on StockTock,
I have had a good time hanging around learning from you all and I appreciate the sharing of your trading and investing skills. I am ‘moving on’.
If one really, really wants to learn ‘how to Daytrade’ and how to ‘swingtrade’ I need someone who is an Expert to teach. The correct way to use Fibonacci is unknown to most; I don’t see anyone here who has correctly shown how it works interday. And INTERDAY is what I like.
Go to eminiaddict . co m and sign up. He has a free 7 day trial, that you can at least study the Webinars if you signup. It is then $30/thirty a month. No foolin’.
David is the BEST trader I have ever seen. I can write this on my wall 100 times, and believe it every time. He is the BEST. He is a ‘fine fellow’ too (not sayin’ you folks here aren’t fine, too! You are!) There is no comparison tho, of what is available on that site. I know without a doubt some of you will spend time there, after going and studying that site.
I trade with 3 monitors, and 2 computers. And 1 -32″ hdtv that I have HIS work on. When you get signed up, you will have to clik on the link, ‘Trading Room and Chat’, to get to the daily Webinar. He trades Futures, the ‘es mini’, and he is the Best. It is easy tho, to trade anything related to the SPX tho, sso, sds,,,etc off the /es, too. That is all I trade,,,(so far)
I am not spamming a site’ for profit; I just know some of you are trying to make money, and I KNOW WHY you aren’t making money; you don’t have the skills yet. Simple.
I see folks here hanging onto every word of some posters yet if you want to really, truly learn, you will get over there and learn. I am into it a couple months now, and I was CLUELESS before,,,per se. My skill level was enough to get me in trouble, is about all it was.
So-o-o-…enough of me blowin’ the smoke. You CAN go there and NOT register, and still see a Daily,,,yes every day,,,a video of ‘what’s goin’ on’, that David Halsey makes. TOday’s video predicted that there ‘would be a gap up’ this morning. No foolin’….
There IS a ‘chat room’. You can SEE them typing/chat,,,live, Realtime, tho you can’t respond unless you sign up. He DID have a free site, a couple months ago, tho spammers and jerks came on there screwing up the chat, as you can imagine. Anyway, there are a few folks that chat all day and are clueless too, over there. I ignore it. David won’t put up with BS either.
He is tho one of the kindest guys I have ever listened to, with the patience to answer all questions. Be sure and LEARN from the Webinar videos as much as you can before you start chatting. Sometimes there are 200 people in chat; usually 120 ave.
Tell him ‘ed1rucker still wants his name changed to EdTheHorse. ha. Somehow there is a glitch and i still have my old truck drivin’ name, tho I rarely post comments. Only when I buy SSO or SDS,,, so if you see me post,say ‘howdy’.
Many, many are clueless of ‘how to do it’,,,i.e. ‘how to trade’ and they lose their money on that site, too. But the way David teaches ‘how to use fibonacci’ and setup your charts, and how the ‘-23% fibonacci’ is important will blow your everlovin’ mind.
I was clueless. Not anymore. So, I hope to see some of ya over there. p.s. Making ‘PREDICTIONS’ isn’t really so much part of the REAL game, such as here with the E.W. or on kenny or daneric et al site. You guys would do well to go over there and see how much you DON’T KNOW.
Later, Ed
[8D]
Could the EOD selloff be because the SEC is supposedly going to investigate this whole Flash Trading deal?
Don’t know, but that’s one heck of a stock debasement tool, along with mark-to-market.
And when short-selling is banned (again) you will have no buyers in the event of a crash.
island top today
It could prove to be an island top if maket gaps down in morning and tanks.
But for that we need really bad GDP numbers! If the are good then we will go may over 1000!
I think a lot of it was also profit taking EOD … ahead of the GDP numbers tomorrow …