Tony: Founder of KhronoStock.com and KhronoStock Blog Network
Update on SPX from KhronoStock contributor Joseph of TradingPoints.net.
By tradingpoints ⋅ July 24, 2009 ⋅ Post a comment
Prices rallied sharply out of the gate into the daily Fib projection of 979.87
Daily Trading Signals
The following signals were generated for 24 Jul:
High Continuation & Reversal Signals are fired when the preceding trading day exhibits a strong compressed bullish trend move throughout the entire day and closes fairly strong near the top of the day’s trading range. The signal implies that the strong bullish move has moved too far, too fast and that a reversal is likely sometime during the trading day.
The Low Breakout Continuation Setup requires that the preceding trading day’s low needs to be exceeded to confirm a change in trend direction. The signal seeks to take advantage of a pullback in the immediate daily trend.
The Momentum Reversal Sell Signal is a stronger reversal indication than the High Continuation & Reversal signal. This momentum reversal signals typically fire following a trend move the previous day that has traveled too far, too fast and is accompanied by an extreme short term Relative Strength Index that indicate a very high probability for a reversal. While the High Continuation Reversal Signal points to a good likelihood for a reversal move sometime during the trading day, the Momentum Rebound Sell Signal uses the 1st hour Low as a specific price level that needs to be exceeded to trigger the Momentum Rebound Sell Signal.
Exceeding the low reached in 1st hour of trading triggers the Sell signal.
Today’s daily pivot is 969.66, and the weekly pivot is 919.89. Price action above the daily pivot is bullish.
The $SPX’s normal trading range is projected to be between 963.22 – 989.37.
The $SPX’s extended trading range is projected to be between 953.23 – 999.35.
Specific price levels and projections are discussed on the charts below.
Short term 15 Min & 60 Min
60 min symmetry support is between 944.42 – 946.11.
Daily
The daily chart oscillator is bullish overbought. The recent daily close above 932 projects eventual targets of 979 and 1010.
Weekly
The recent -9%, -87 point decline was the catalyst for the current +110 point, 2 week rally. The weekly oscillator turned bullish last week. A daily close < 926 and support slips to 892 on the weekly charts.
The true weekly swing high is counted from 943.85. Even in the most severe downtrends a 38.2% – 50% rally is typical. 1014 would be a minimal 38.2% retracement of the all time highs @ 1576 Oct ’07 from the 667 March lows.
The current high point of the rally is a 313 point, 47% 20 week advance in the S&P to 979, the longest rally since the beginning of the Bear Market from the Oct ’07 highs. Closing > 945 at end of the current month would turn the monthly $SPX price pattern nominally bullish. The Monthly chart has already closed above symmetry resistance. June closed @ 919.32, while May closed at 919.14.
Weekly prices remain bullish > 893. Longer term Fib support is 823 & 786.
Updated 15 min, Hourly, Daily, Weekly charts with additional Fib support and projection levels are posted below.
Support & Resistance Levels and Daily Signals are posted in each section.
