3:21pm
Both a blow off top or a strong sell off would make me bearish into tomorrow.. the only thing that would make me somewhat bullish is if we just consolidate into the close on low volume… I have to leave for now.. good luck in trading, I will cover most of my puts if we fall to 92 on AMZN, otherwise i’m holding it into earnings despite them probably beating.
3:06pm
USO is now forming it’s right shoulder of a 5 or 10 minute H&S… we’ll see if this one holds.
3:04pm
Financials leading this rally now, which is very sustainable.. i do have a stop at 98.20, in hopes for a double top.. but it looks like the strength is still there. AMZN definetly showing weakness in comparison to the market. Let’s not forget AMZN is right at it’s all time highs.
2:42pm
I love the way the GS stock doesn’t even care what the market is doing, it just does it’s own thing… and creates bubble like rallys and capitualtion like sell offs.
2:44pm
AMZN H&S coming into play here, SPY and Financials still strong nontheless!
2:23pm
AMZN 3 minute testing the neckline of the H&S.. a clear break of the blue line would mean the end of the rally for this stock until potentially the last few minutes before earnings:
2:17pm
SPY 1 minute showing signs of an H&S… even though a market ending close to it’s highs is what the bulls really want.. maybe this won’t really happen today as we just rallied way too far way too fast. I’m going to try and call a top on the SPY right here, short at 97.80 with a stop above 98 (intraday trade):
2:13pm
AMZN a little weaker than the overall market on it’s recent action over the last few hours… there is a possibility for an H&S. Some other things to point out.. financials are still below their 13$ resistance.. and have not showed incredible strength in comparison to the market. Oil (USO) has potentially topped around the 36 area.
1:13pm
Another potential H&S now forming on the SPY 10 minutes… lets see if this one can put a damper on the markets. Remember i am hoping for a pull back to the breakout point to get long.
12:50pm
Market is shooting higher, cancelling the H&S formation… AMZN is now at a double top region… but there is very strong resistance for a lot of stocks at these levels.. 97.85-98$ has been strong resistance before, and it should be harder to break.
12:16pm
SPY 10 minute formation of the H&S is become clear now as we are buliding a right shoulder… we might see a strong push down in the next hour, to start a retrace back to the breaking out point.
11:57am
$VIX is potentially bottoming out here, maybe we will start retracing down to our break out points..
VIX 10 min:
11:38am
AMZN short is working nicely already, despite the market moving higher. This market is on full strength today not giving back any inch. The only thing that will turn me bearish is if we end either today or tomorrow underneath 960 on the SPX… If the pull back to 962 is on light volume i’m a buyer.
11:11am
Most of the stocks that are shooting up are probably going to go back and retrace their breakout points in the next few days. With that in mind, AMZN will probaby have to go back to it’s 89$ breaking point.. it’s now at 94… it’s got earnings today. Maybe worth a short?
Here’s amzn60min:
11:03am
With the market clearly breaking out to the upside the thing to do now is to wait for a retrace to some level in the 96.10-96.30 and go ahead and pile in long. The S&P is very overbought so waiting is a better strategy than piling long.
12:00am
Hey guys, I have a new video out to give you my thoughts despite the fact that right now the best is a wait and see approach. I believe that we could have some pull back in the short term, but that I’m really aiming to get long very soon for a push higher to the 1000 level. I do believe the bulls are showing no signs of haltering their rally and I’ll take any few days of downside as a buying opportunity as long as the volume remains weak. I did buy a few SPY puts in at around 95.90 yesterday, but that’s just a bit of a hunch that we need to fall back. A break of the 96.10 level, which has been tested so many times will result in a massive short-squeeze, which should take us eventually to 1000-1010 on the SPX. Let’s not forget the jobs numbers tomorrow.
spx @ 976 .50 no stoppin it
Interesting. Let’s see how far they take it before they slam the door. They never like to be predictable though, so whatever the general consensus is, bet against that.
I feel like we are in the next bull market,????
By EOD, we could be at 1000 or 960. But in any case, this appears to be an earnings driven rally with a helping hand from short covering so we have another month of upside to go.
Is this driven by sideline money that has finally come into the market?
Ok…hedging.
BOUGHT AMZN AUG 90 P 3.30
Long MSFT DNDN
loving that.
MSFT double top here. Hmmmmm.
Took 1st 1/2 profits on MSFT 25′s 33% and 27′s 52%
WIll exit 1/4 before EOD and hold 1/4 for earnings play.
AAPL rising wedge that seems to have an end time of 2:00pm. if it breaks down, i think TECH will sell off pretty heavily. Time to short AMZN and other overbought TECH.
Raised limit out 1/2 DNDN +35%
I will short this market at 98.5
CIT–if this continues, bull run is over. Inversely, could be a buy?
In FAZ–500 @ 38.5–see what happens as CIT looks bad (many small business owners). Stops in.
little early on the gun, but much ammunition left.
Gutsy call Idan. I’m in the EOD rally court. This last hr lks like consolidation.
ya, this seems like consolidation, just entered some TNA, will close EOD what so ever
I agree Idan. The top is in at 979 SPX on wave 5 of 5 of 5. Next target is the 38.2% retrace fig at 943. Loaded up with FAZ and QID for the drop.
GS keeps hitting highs for the day and oil is holding its gains. Who the F knows. We my end flat too.
Interesting that when the Dollar drops oil jumps higher … but when the dollar rises back up again oil stays flat ….
Done with MSFT on the bear flaggy formation for similar $$$$ to earlier. Holding the 1/4 position into AH.
Keeping the DNDN for now.
Bidding FAS AUG 48 P Tougher playing these FAS options since the split.
http://inthemoneystocks.com/n_rant_and_rave_blog.php
Glad I was long from 940 and loaded for bull. SSO, QLD, FAS (yesterday at 46.5 now 52ish)
Never made so much money in one week! I am a bear but when it’s clear this market is
going up then why fight it? We will retrace the 38 fib of the whole move down. We are around 33 ish.
Yup. AMZN toasty
COF on fire before earnings.
Cancelled my FAS P bid. GS ticking HOD. Could have more juice left.
Bloomberg was talking earlier about Buffet getting into GS- I missed the details. But yeah, on fire is right.
Going to switch back to UYG options. More liquidity
DJUSFN, RIFIN and XLF not making new highs.
For you VIX fans:
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/07/cboe-launches-implied-correlation-index.html
I was wrong yesterday about having 100-125 billion in auction next week.
The official number is $236 billion in auctions next week.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Amazon.com Inc. drew mostly cheers Thursday from Wall Street for announcing a deal to acquire shoe retailer Zappos.com on the eve of its second-quarter earnings report, which is expected to show another quarter of sales gains for the e-commerce giant.
No matter the close….holding everything into tomorrow.
MSFT DNDN C’s
AMZN P’s
I’m out my longs for the day (TNA, GS) thinking we open lower tomorrow w/ profit taking in the AM – before moving higher.
Ya…feeling a move here at the end. Dunno which way. Chances of a quiet close seem slim given the action.
BOUGHT LVS AUG 9 P .45
65/35 long now
65% cash
LVS broke down from a 4-5 day uptrend, formed H&S and is at support. I can’t see it going back into the channel….but……..looks like downside push to me
double top on MSFT?
Could be. Cash profits on 3/4 position earlier. Just holding last for earnings gamble.
i feel like buying msft 25 puts, mmmm.
I’ve capitulated 10 times today
Kenny made a comment last week about EWI’s 2-4 line, said Prechter would have laughed at it.
Draw a line on the monthly from Intermediate 2 to wave 2 of Intermediate 3. It will take you to today’s high (SPY, SPX). Is that what a 2-4 line should look like?
I’m not convinced we’re not in Intermediate 4 until we blow past that trendline.
more FAZ
We are still not seeing any signs of an EOD short covering rally so if this keeps up to close, I add to my mildly bullish position.
and me , i wiil go all in 100 %
Might save a little in case we have some good profit taking through the open tomorrow.
Had a small short position, but doubled my positions not too long ago.
What the hell.
Feels and looks like final blowoff.
Hard to get my head around going long after a 200 up day of 12 consecutive days.
In FAZ @$38.60. Half a position.
No pullbacks. This should be a straight up short squeeze to end the rally like so many times in the past.
Like your thoughts. This is why I am positioning for “final curtain”, longer term. Can also sell on retrace. What do you think for topping?
I am not going to venture a topping price, because trying to catch a top in this steep upward channel can make you broke. I am hedging my every short position with long calls. I’d say that as soon as we see Hindenburg Omen signal(s) from now to August 13, start dumping long hedges.
I am also positioning for puts expiring in October or January 2010.
If you’d like to know what I meant by the last short squeeze to kill past rallies, look at the end of the corrective wave during the tech bubble (a sudden reversal without warning). There are many other examples, I’ll see if I have time to post a chart tonight.
Interesting–many call for tech to pull this market through, but I still favor watching financials. Following CIT, as this may be an engine for future growth. All about private/public funds. If CIT fails, jobs in the small sector will decrease, and economy will get worse. Realize that there are many other factors, but this could be the start of the end.
Agreed. There cannot be a true economic recovery if the banks are in bad shape, especially ones involved in commercial real estate. This next leg down will bring a lot of pain to the average joes and janes (myself included), but it is necessary in order to sort out the weak and the strong. I just hope that not a penny more of our money goes out to bailouts.
Lots in common–figure you are german/austrian. CRE will ultimately bring US economy down–when, don’t know.
“This should be a straight up short squeeze to end the rally like so many times in the past.”
Yup, I agree.
I have a medium size short position now.
Do not want to get greedy.
Will only add to short pos untill a reversal is confirmed.
My AXP short position seems to have worked out, AXP down $1.25 AH. Buy the rumor, sell the news. COF is working out too. Hoping to see extra $2000 in my account tomorrow morning.
AMZN tankage.
See if it sticks. Now for MSFT……
MSFT missed .02. Waiting for guidance. Bet it reverses north. TBD. Ok night all.
Good call on AMZN FL … can you share some insight into why you chose to short it into earnings ?
wow AMZN off 6 that was quick
Is it safe to say NASDAQ streak is going to end tomorrow with MSFT, AMZN, Juniper and Broadcom all disappointing?
You would certainly think so but who knows any more. Dow seems to be banging up against resistance in the 9090 range today, so maybe it reverses, too.
Are they all missed?
AXP -4.9% AH
AMZN -9%
MSFT -8%
JNPR -5.8%
Hear anything on bucy yet? I can’t find it on briefingdotcom but they run about 20 minutes late.
WHAAAAT!???????????
Huh?
BUCY reports after the bell.
QID up 3% AH.
“American Express 2Q profit down 48%, beats Wall Street” – By Associated Press
I think the article was written at 1:36 PM, before AXP went to $30.00
AH tanking was designed (that’s why I went short on AXP).
Can you share how you look at upcoming earnings stocks and pick a side … I think you had a good run doing so ….
It was intuition for the most part. I sat through the first few earnings days just to catch the general trend (buy the rumor, sell the news), and then start picking. Most importantly, I do not touch sectors that I don’t understand. Furthermore, I do not touch Goldman Sachs due to manipulation.
Richard (pb) actually had a better run at earnings in my opinion.
FL has had a great run too ….
MSFT! SHocking!
I used the last two days on the 401k front to move towards more cash. Now 50 long/50 cash in the 401K account. My ongoing contributions have been going to cash for awhile. Will continue to move to cash as we melt up. This is not a “trading” account, so its a IT/LT swing.
Staying out of the trading account for a few more days to clear the mind so will still be rather scarce
Ok 1 for 2. AMZN puts will cover the MSFT calls. Earnings always a dice roll.
hehe
WIll cash out AMZN at open and ride MSFT into the close tomorrow and get the hell out of everything for vacation week ahead.
Don’t worry we are in bull market their will be a positive spin on msft also ; )
What is your retrace? Charts?
none, don’t need any in a bull market, : )
what are your positions?
Sorry I was being sarcastic.
FAZ–38.5 (one lot), 38 (second lot)–see what happens.
Hello Everyone,
Have followed ST for sometime now and have learned alot from all of you. I’m a novice at most and have a question to ask. Does everyone here believe we are in a C wave and upon completion @1050 or so that we will begin a reversal to test the lows.
Hope this is an intermediate and get a pullback to retracement of 943(38%) or 927(50%) to get long this market.
Thanks.
See post #32. EW doesn’t exactly work to pick the end of a great bear market rally.
There has been a guy on ES site who has this as his count. He has been very bullish (and right ). I think his count is 1 of c is over, 2 of c (correction) will take place friday/monday, then 3-5 of c over the next 2 weeks to land at about 1040 before the next leg down starts. Certainly a valid count like many others.
Wheeeeeew! Thanks for your reply. Looks like crude and gold is down AH and the dollor is recovering. All good signs of a pullback.
Not sure if this is of any significance but someone took a big position today on December spy 82 puts. Came across it by chance and the total volume was 240166 for today. I am guessing someone is betting some change that market will be at or below 82 in december. Trading range was 1.87 to 2.20 with the close at 1.95. thats almost 1/2 million dollars on a bet in 1 day. WOW!!
Maybe I will pick up a couple just for fun.