2:13pm
My aapl short from yesterday at 154.70 still looks good despite the market potentially bottoming here… I will look to take profits around the double bottom 150 level or a stop at 150.8 (3%+).
1:35pm
If you want to be bearish, you want to see the SPY break below yesterday’s low of 94.17… and you want the volume to pick up sigfnicantly at 2pm..
1:32pm
The market hit today a double top region which is also the inverted H&S neckline… the volume to the downside is not strong, so there is a favorable potential for a breakout in the days to come.
12:00am
AAPL is reporting today after the bell, I shorted it yesterday at $154.70, which was around the 61.8% retracement of this whole bear market. Technically, this stock can bust through this, but with the amount of bullishness in the market, it’ll take more than just a blow out earnings to push this stock higher. My intuition, is that with their normally conservative guidance, this stock can actually plummet. That said.. I do have stops at winning prices like 154.40ish..
Here’s my daily chart:
In addition I wanted to add the SPX chart and talk about it a little bit. While we have seem to have closed for the first time above the descending red resistance… and this is the highest close we’ve gotten, we have not broken the 955 level yet, which completes to form a bigger inverse H&S. We might be able to do that this week, though the probability states that we should see some form of a 1 day, 2 day pull back before we get some more bullish action. During that pull back it might be worth going long, if the redness is on weak volume. That said, there’s nothing saying that we don’t go to new lows either.. as we know double shoulders are common, and sometimes the right shoulder forms an inverse H&S too… so buying up here, is a little dangerous, i’d rather wait for a pull back.
Daily SPX:
Double bottom possibly on the RIFIN.
Peene…Pour Vous: Le Dollar
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/07/dollar-is-overvalued-but-against-what.html
merci monsieur Alex
Je vous en prie. Bon courage!
Et Voila:
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
thanks again Alex
very much appreciated!
Guys ,
I am now broadcasting and trading live at http://www.livestream.com/stocktrades ,, Hope you all are making lots of money and are very successful,.
FL GUY… Always appreciated your insight on AAPL.. was wondering if you could come over to the site for a minute and discuss AAPL’s earnings and your view on it… THIS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED..
Best of luck to all of you and thanks for all your hard work..
LETSTRADER
BOUGH HGSI AUG 12.50 P 1.00
gamblin cash
As I told Mo…IMHO….I expect AAPL might run up before EOD but will not move AH much… ala GS GOOG RIMM. I’m still holding a few calls, but won’t be adding.
Today’s chart looks like an inverse H&S. I’d be careful especially around this 3pm reversal time-frame…
I bought a 95-100 call spread on the SPY for extra insurance
BOUGHT AMD AUG 4 C .38 (third time in two days)
Say we backtest, rise to 954 EOD, up AH (or not), then fail again tomorrow. WIll likely close HGSI before EOD
Looks like the drop to 943 from 956 was the wave 4 of the 5 wave run from 873 to 956 that was missing. Now wave 5 is underway and a target of 960+ should be hit late today or tomorrow morning. Then maybe a bigger pull-back to 925 to 930?
Yawn. Guessing at the wind. Play what the market gives you, not what EWT says.
People here are pretty hostile towards EWT. You’ll get better treatment on Kenny or Dan’s blog.
Ditched HGSI bk even
Todays action looks like the index daily. Uuugh. Should be an interesting close.
boring
SPY 5-Min
Pretty nice fight there at the IH&S neckline. Today’s daily candle looks set to finish as (another) Doji. To be continued tomorrow….
Looks like the bulls are winning this one…
EWT is winning, as it always does.
a break of mid 952s spells bad news for bears, but so far it’s ok.
hard to call the market direction at the moment. still not enough momentum to get into new highs IMHO. could easily fall into tomorrow.
break?
break.
Still holding your puts Woo – let us know when you drop them
Wave 5 of move from 873 underway.
right now the 6 month shows a double top (well now a triple top) at the 854ish area.
we really might break lose into tomorrow.
you can’t really call this area north or south. i still don’t think the market has what it needs to break north. will hold puts into tomorrow, may be a big mistake…
AAPL looks good afterhours, however, after rallying 10% in a week, how much further north can we break out?
DItched QID. Picked the wrong strike.- a few pennies
Will hold all else over.
Ok…nailed one for a change. 954. Watching the AAPL tick. Have a great night all. GIGUNDO day tomorrow.
0-1 on earnings. AMD underperforms. No biggie. Hit the cash register a couple times on that one.
–YHOO– Gamble.. but I just bought a lot of PUTs for Yahoo Aug $15. Now let the earnings come out. Even if Microsoft wants to acquire them, I would hope they are smart to let them dive first.
Good call. -3% AH so far.
Looks like you should be able to cash these nicely tomorrow …
Hey thanks! I hope it stays down for tomorrow.. it’s slowly recovering.
The Dow and Nasdaq have already busted their respective H&S’s, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the S&P follow. Fakeout H&S and then breakout fakeout.
Ok…1 for 2.
AAPL is one hell of a company. 155 target hit. Long time til 9:30 am.
Sell the news. WIll cash calls and buy puts if this level holds. Only pissed I was stopped out on 80% while I was getting my car fixed.
Sheesh. Tons of treasury auctions scheduled next week.
3-, 6-, and 12-month bills. 2′s, 5′s, 7′s year notes, and a 20-yr TIPS
Most likely about $100-125 billion worth. http://treasurydirect.gov/RI/OFAnnce
That might keep a lid on the equities market. But who knows, the Fed extends margin (loans) to Primary Dealers to buy Treasuries at a 0.5% interest rate. http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pdcf_faq.html
Dinner Tonight?
What about some “Grilled Ben”? It’s kinda foreign….
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/grayson-grilling-bernanke-on-half.html
It Takes All Kinds…To Make A Market
Perhaps more than you care to hear about the solar eclipse but here it is…gold in Leo.
mms://media.kitco.com/weeklyreport/taylor20090716.mp3
I am tiring of the blatant pitches on this site for subscriptions to other sites. How exactly does that help Stocktock? Craig? Idan? I love you guys but I am more frequently drawn to other sites like Stock Twits and Day trader Radio. Of course, nobody gives a crap what I think anyway. Unless you are an EWT diehard, we free thinking day traders are often dissed and ignored. What a shame. Is this what you are trying to build here? Small wonder your posts have shrunk to under 200 a day. If Richard or myself take a day off your post numbers are pathetic.
Careful, you post might get deleted!
I just stopped by to see how it went here today. I completely agree with your post. The pitches for subscription services are obnoxious and the calls by the front page posters have been terrible for months.
I am looking for a site where I can share my ideas and get good ideas in return. There are a few good posters left here (and that includes you) but their trading styles do not really match mine so I get little out of it. The rest of the posts are simply calls for downside over and over again regardless of what the market is actually doing. Pointless.
Morris good to have you back !
I’m not really back. I was just checking to see how it went today. I do not plan to follow or post during the day unless the site undergoes some changes. I hope that it will because it could be a cool place.
I agree completely. Just saw the post by tony and the responce to 3min. Although I did not see the 3min post, I am sure it is referring to the BS move of not closing losing positions in order to post an inflated “winning” record which several sites do out there. Not only that, but to think we are even stupid enough to believe in a 100% track record on top of that. And then to delete a post from some one who no doubt pointed that out is also ******(self censored). I just tried to do a post there and it seems the entire thing is closed to posting. So right now its just an ad for this “other site”.
This is not what stocktock needs to be associated with.
Well, Short-Stocks and KhronoStock do not need to prove anything to skeptical individuals such as yourself. A great track record is a great track record enough said. If really saddens me to see people who are unable to succeed and actually believe that other people cannot succeed neither.
I agree also 100%.
Side note FLguy you have been trading this market correctly, your hedge plays have been great. Good work.
I posted some proof that Tony was lieing. That just really pissed me off and I posted the true data from his trade partner. Whatever. I don’t care about the advertisement, that is why DVRs were created!
I just HATE liars.
For the record, I mostly lost opportunity in this run up. Would have been a few hundred grand richer if I just stuck to my long guns a couple weeks ago. I knew we going to run up and posted it several times. What was I thinking.
3min,
I am really tired of your accusations. I already talked to Dan of Short-Stocks.com. We have no idea where you are coming from.
How am I lying about anything? The article is written by one of KhronoStock’s contributors. His comments are completely valid. Why are you accusing me?
Haha if you have a problem with the artilce, go talk to our contributor and stop giving KhronoStock and Short-Stocks a bad name.
Your action is nothing short of a troll.
oooo….I hit a nerve.
I am looking into it… no worries.
How is that article written by one of the KhronoStock contributors a pitch? I just posted what Mike wrote.
What 3min did is illegal. He clearly breached subscriber agreement with Short-Stocks.com. Dan and I cannot tolerate anyone leaking our trade information on public sites.
As a subscriber himself, 3min is not only ungrateful of the kind of benefits associated with Short-Stocks’s subscription, he also makes false accusations about Short-Stocks’ business partner KhronoStock. Anybody who takes on his side should think twice.
Whatever. Sue me. Dan is deep in the hole right now and he knows it. I actually like, Dan. He is a straight up guy. It is your type, I don’t like. The kind of person that lies to readers in hope to trick them to pay for your service.
Then, deletes my post so readers wont see the truth.
3min,
You are an idiot
. I DID NOT write the article that you are accusing me of lying about. How many times do I need to emphasis that? It’s from one of KhronoStock’s contributors. I just posted it with a short introductory paragraph. Can’t you read? Email Mike about his article. Don’t accuse the wrong person.
If you have a personal issue with your paid subscription, then you should seek help with your execution. Obviously you have a problem understanding Dan’s directions.
I deleted your post because you posted subscriber only information on a public site, which is illegal. It’s plain and simple.
I guess I was right about AAPL going up for earnings.
Check pg.1 post #8.
I am wondering about Idan’s TA on AAPL – was your short covered? Or, are you waiting for everyone to sell AAPL on the good news – driving it down. What about shorts having to cover their positions – will that drive the price higher?
I shorted GS at $160 AH. Nice H&S formation on 4 day chart with left shoulder at $158 on Thursday, and ascending neckline that hit first on Friday at $156 and again today at $157. Closed exactly at right shoulder target of $159.80.
Should be due for a pullback. Will cover above $160.65.
Also liking the Bearish Harami Cross candlestick posted today on GS daily chart.