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20
Jul
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1:43am
Here’s the SPX daily chart showing some strong resistance around the 945-950 level… and we might need more than just one hit to break this..
12:20am
Futures are slightly higher despite the 7% rally that we had yesterday.. although I must warn the bulls once more, even though it looks great for the bulls, we are hitting up against longer term resistance from 2008 (descending) which sorta covers the 945-950 region on the SPX… we hit it at 953 last time on the S&P and now we’re hitting it around these levels.. If we break above, buy on dips, but we might not break above it, and so the H&S could still technically form.
Idan – pls could you post your latest SPY chart ….
Also – what are you holding right now and where are your stops / thoughts to cover ?
July 20th, 2009 at 1:29 am
I can handle the video shortage…but not a chart?
Must have…chart…
July 20th, 2009 at 2:01 am
I have shorts on the market as of friday… but again.. i might be squeezed out tomorrow.. who knows.
HAVE YOU ASKED YOURSELF …. WHY THE GREEN DAY WITH THE GREEN VIX?
PUTS I HAVE — ONB — WL — TCB — (have positions in these and up 20% to 190%
OTHERS CONSIDERING tomorrow. one reports tuesday — NPBC — FITB — PNFP –
HOWEVER, im hedging these potential blood spewers with FAS calls for now. AND im going long HAU.TO which is 2X GRAIN.
IDAN ——- what are your thoughts about the intense volume of CALLS expiring in the money? especially those on the evil market leader GS. can this alone push us higher?
July 20th, 2009 at 1:41 am
It could very well push us higher but… i don’t want to chase this rally.. i want to see how well the 2nd week is sustained.. if at all i’d rather be short.
July 20th, 2009 at 2:03 am
The last time a large number of calls expired in-the-money was April 17. We saw an approximate 5% drop on April 20. The markets closed in the green on April 16 and 17. That was in the early part of this rally, but I have no idea what will happen on July 20. I am going in mostly short, but that is because I hold September and October puts and I am not worried about them. I do hold short term shorts but they are hedged.
– “we might need more than just one hit to break this..” –
have we not hit the area enough times on the weekly chart? this was the 3rd hit in 11weeks.
if this thing hits 1,000 it will be psychologically and financially damaging to the permabears like Denninger. this will take alot of pressure off the markets short term.
the bulls must push this over the goal line this week or im going to give up on them forever
this week is the biggest week for the markets since this began. if they can push this higher it may just convince many to simply hold off cashing out those 401Ks early.
July 20th, 2009 at 2:44 am
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx-july16-weekly?context=latest
July 20th, 2009 at 6:30 am
But Karl looked quite happy appearing on the Max Keiser show
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xa5VXC2grlA
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpiMDmx5KXo
———— INTC ————– last week i said that INTC should see resistance around $18.80. im just finishing up my plan for tomorrow and i see that INTC closed the week at $18.79 and making a high of $18.81. if this stock can close above $20 this week then i give up
July 20th, 2009 at 4:54 am
Look how far GS and INTC are outside of their daily BBs.
Likely we churn up here until there ae more bulls positioned on the rug, and more converted bears.
Last time we broke 950 in early June there was no short covering and prices fell back within hours. Is there more fuel around now? I have my doubts.
July 20th, 2009 at 6:07 am
Note also how sharply the volume dropped off each day after the first pop in the rise:
Date GS Close Volume INTC Cls Volume
7/14 $149.66 28813838 $16.83 95275184
7/15 $155.26 21137972 $18.05 186108704
7/16 $156.84 12644217 $18.50 90047664
7/17 $156.84 9617184 $18.79 84199736
That is one of the classic signs of topping.
July 20th, 2009 at 10:27 am
im saying that INTC is a good short at $18.80. however. other sectors are dragging. so maybe they can rotato potato this higher.
I also want to note that when the 20, 50, and 200 MAs are so close together there is really no defining strength to them together or individually. We sliced right through the trio last week without hesitation.
Boiling at the top like mentioned in this video (Minute 3:00+)
http://social.stocktock.com/video/boiling-at-the-top-of-a-range
New Chart:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spy-breakout-fakeout
Good vid on what happened last week. Matches my thoughts. GS and INTC positive results hit just at the right time to spark a ton of short covering, however, were bulls piling in? I didn’t see any.
http://www.redoption.com/shadow_video.php
Interesting point about tech too in the vid, however the breakout day was Friday and it was on very very light volume, so that’s a consideration.
July 20th, 2009 at 9:08 am
Excellent.
Like many, I never believed the H/S would play out immediately. Then again, I went short at 930, only to get thrown under the bus last week (thank g o d) for hedging. With ES now at 943, SPY 96 needs to be defended by the bears. If not, new higher highs look likely.
I’m taking next week off, so I’ll try to make the most of this week
I held all positions over the weekend (200 shares of TBT, 1000 shares of UCO, 2000 shares of XLF, and 1000 shares each of XLP, XLU, and XLV). UCO is at 11.17 in the premarket right now which is up 11.17% from my buy on Thursday. My plan was to sell it on Friday at 11.00 but it never got there. Good luck to all today!
Another good Evil analysis. I like this guy. Straight shooter.
http://evilspeculator.com/
July 20th, 2009 at 9:07 am
Fujisan…Straightshooting…And A Bullseye.
“Not that I want to get a credit for this, but here is what I posted as of July 1st predicting SPY to hit 94.52 for the right shoulder formation. SPY actually hit 94.51 on Thursday – off by $0.01 from my prediction.”
One day I’ll get to the options she focuses on.
So far, USD going straight to hell sub 79, down 0.7%. Look for a reversal at 78.50.
July 20th, 2009 at 9:33 am
Could have reversed just now with a double bottom at 78.925 on this 5-min chart:
http://tinyurl.com/m43jnz
Rose as high as 79.075, now cruising at 79.020.
On my Blackberry from CNBC this morning:
DOW Futures: 24400
Hmmm….not in our lifetime!
July 20th, 2009 at 10:01 am
At this rate, we’ll be there by year end.
A good read http://www.investmenthouse.com/weekendmarketsummary.htm
Longs that have my intrest
ISLE – ENTG – IFON – THQI – KONG
A short my eye’s R on
ZOLL & LEAP
July 20th, 2009 at 9:22 am
Good summary. Thanks.
so, we are overbought….but what else is negative about today? Hmm. Looks like we move higher from momentum.
I want a black bearish engulfing candle please, on all time frames.
SPX VIX green. Remember VIX OPEX is Wednesday
Remember Goldman’s $200 oil call? When this just came out:
“Goldman Sachs boosts its 2009 forecast for the S&P to 1,060 from a previous 940, a 15% gain from its June 30 close, and raises its earnings estimate to $52 and $75 for 2009 and 2010, 30% and 19% above previous estimates. Of 10 major banks, only JPMorgan at 1,100 is more bullish.”
July 20th, 2009 at 9:45 am
BTW, these are operating earnings, not GAAP, so they don’t include charges such as the cost of layoffs! (…bogus)
A Bearish Financial Ninja
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_FiNhXIv5StE/SmRnxEF9vtI/AAAAAAAAETo/iHZrA13c7Yk/s1600-h/NYADV.png
VIX holding above the 200ema 5 min, 20&50EMA MACD on the rise bodes well IMHO
I willl take a small butt squeking short on ZOLL with the a break of 943
VIX 1m up this am with market. Watch for the sell signal on the daily charts. 30 and 60m big time negative divergences. If rollover here weeklys set neg divs. Upside limited here IMO. This bull run turns this week (sooner than later). Pullback should be good, but it will be whatever GS wants it to be.
—————- OIL $65 , IS THE OBVIOUS SHORT ————— however i did some math and have $66 as the retrace point and also $68 as possible. im not going short oil here. if they can push oil above $66 we will see the SPX at 950+ ?
July 20th, 2009 at 10:59 am
Short oil when equities finish P2?
July 20th, 2009 at 11:29 am
this is what im thinking. and i believe $68 is the target. if oil hits $68 im “guessing” the rally is over. and because im “guessing” ill be
sitting tight and using stops. IM MOSTLY CASH
———– THIS MOVE HAS NO POP ———- my expectations for a nasty pop on Monday have certainly not been met. the bulls really needed to ride last weeks momentum. of course we have many hours ahead of us. if they do not push this above 945 today im not interested in committing much to the long side.
GOT PUTS TODAY at the open : FITB NPBC PNFP
…..and went long HAU.TO
StockTwits TV with alphatrends begins in 5 minutes here: http://bit.ly/SOQ6f
Bought DELL calls for hedge
July 20th, 2009 at 11:17 am
FLguy
What are you hedging against?
July 20th, 2009 at 11:25 am
VIX calls, FAS puts
July 20th, 2009 at 11:27 am
& AIG puts
Anyone know when WFC announces? Seems like they were one of the infusions to the last leg up.
July 20th, 2009 at 11:34 am
I think they announce Wed …
July 20th, 2009 at 11:36 am
Wed before the open 8am
I bought SDS at 932 and 942 and am growing increasingly concerned at the lack of sell-off, and when there is, that buyers are jumping right back in. Seriously, this is rediculous. Ready to sell at a large loss so I can sleep at night.
Honestly, I’m slightly bullish, but after being up more than 7% last week, I don’t think we can do a repeat performance. In my view, last week’s rally was the combination of short covering since the H&S didn’t happen, and a few people getting long going into the brunt of earnings season.
I’m shorting at the 980 level on the S&P because there isn’t much much room to go higher. If we break through 960 convincingly, I’ll most likely cover my call spread.
————- LACK OF POSTS = LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN CALLS ————–
im up $$ today. which is nice. however, i really have zero confidence wearing
the green hat. even if we get the highest close of the year. basically my account
is NEUTRAL. FAS CALLS against mini bank PUTS and long a few things, short
a few things. not much committed. i’m playing LIMIT POKER ….. boring.
July 20th, 2009 at 11:56 am
It could be that the lack of posts represents a waning interest in the site. I think people are looking for sites that will help them with their trading decisions. If you look back over the site for the past 10 days or so, what you will find is lots of very bad calls on market direction on both the front page and in the intraday postings.
Actually, the bad calls have been going on for months.
I believe the overly bearish tone of the site will hurt its ability to grow.
July 20th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Morris
Following you hasn’t been all that bad though, portfolio up, first time in awhile.
July 20th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Thanks Ve!
July 20th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
Morris, what are you doing today? I sold some longs last week and entered some new ones on Friday. dxo, sso, auy. I agree on the overall tone which is on every site I frequent but I agree with all of it. I just think the fix is in and now that GS has given a target for the spx of 1100 or whatever I think it’s just a telegraph of what’s to come.
thanks
July 20th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
I’m have yet to do anything so far today; just letting the portfolio that I posted earlier today ride while trying to get caught up at work.
i’m long lloyds up 6 % also long mining stock mwa up 13 % on da ftse forget that shortin game,
July 20th, 2009 at 11:52 am
I wish you would have told us Friday.
July 20th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
its all a gamble , the markets fixed and they will push it higher, thats what i think
and that’s in one day
Gamblin money
BOUGHT HGSI JUL 7.50 P .20
July 20th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Duh …AUG force of habit
July 20th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
HGSI just released news on phase 3 trials of Lupus treatment. It may go to $20.
July 20th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
Of course…I push the button, puts go up .03, then it breaks north again. SOld back for bk even. Will enter again. These parabolic moves are always nutzo to play.
July 20th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
yeah, thats right go for it dude keep your stops in though
—————- CIT —————- good news? they are paying 10% for funds to stave off bankruptcy. this is far from good news. rut roh! are they making 15% business loans? if so, this is good for niether party as other companies pay 8% for funds giving them a competitive advantage over CIT customers. anyone know more details on this rescue?
July 20th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
Other than it’s more likely the gov has given funds to some one else to “help” them out rather than take the heat of another bailout. The 10% buys time to sort out the good from the bad and what to shed come chapter 11.
July 20th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Here’s the deal:
JPM, MS and GS were purportedly in on the deal, then it broke yesterday that they wanted to provide debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing. When you provide DIP financing, you come in AFTER bankruptcy so any claims related to the DIP financing are in senior unsubordinated position.
It looks to me that Pimco et al were forced to come up with the cash to hold off the bankruptcy, have their claims settled at a fraction of worth and have the banks jump to the head of the line.
I think the 20ma on the SPY will pinch you through the 94.70 level and the RIFIN may just be taking out the first 30m candle for the second time today.
July 20th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
If the RIFIN doesn’t close above 648.15 in the next little bit 30m then I would expect a small move lower. UUP hit double bottom on the daily this morn too. Maybe retest that and………….
Duh!
Bailout Overseer Says Banks Misused TARP Funds
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/19/AR2009071901770_pf.html
BOUGHT AMD AUG 4 .38
Ok done for a while
60/40 short
July 20th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
ok , good luck
any one long cit ?, i might get $1000 of them
July 20th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
on the pull back
RIFIN just failed at it’s first attempt to break out of it’s pennant 10m
July 20th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
ok, i will check in out and i might get in myself on the next one , cheers
GS taking a little run.
Does anyone know of any 2x or 3x ETFs, short or long, that pertain only to European markets ?
Thanks.
July 20th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
not me , but i could do with knowing myself, thats the markets i trade
July 20th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
EDZ = a 3x short Emerg. mks
EDC = 3X long Emerg. Markets
I have made $ off both these
July 20th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
thanks alot dude
July 20th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
XACT BEAR = omxs30 = sveden x 11/2
XACT Derivat BEAR = OBX = Nowigen x 2
July 20th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Thank you.
I think an upside breakout here (total negation of the all too obvious and neat H&S) would get the remainder to jump on board. When everybody’s in, that’s the time they’ll pull the plug.
Got in front of this moving train again
BOUGHT HGSI AUG 10 P .75
July 20th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Took $$$ at .90 Holding 1/2
July 20th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Bid to close most remaining 1.00
July 20th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Screw it. Took .90 again. Hold 10% of original just cuz
might retouch the trend line. we hit it on the previous daily highs…
would be around the same area, a little higher now.
July 20th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
What level would that be Woo ?
July 20th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
well the 6 month trend line is at around 948.5 or so, right now, which means probably 949 could hit, with the avgs on that line still holding.
we don’t need to retest this trend line though, and if we reach it again, it doesn’t even need to hold (we could just break through), but the previous highs for the day landed RIGHT on that trend line.
As one professional floor trader put it “This is classic distribution.”
July 20th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
whatever that means…
touching trend line on the 1 month…
July 20th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
slight crack of 1 month trend line.
50 ma is at 944.5
July 20th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
now the 50ma is at 944.81. held this time around.
July 20th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
50ma – 945.05
cracked below….
another trend line at 943…
8,809 is Dub top on the 60 min
S&P & DJI are now making lower highs
VIX held pivot. Northward above the 200ema 5min again please
AXP – I’m shorting this into oblivion, in $28.95 500 shares, hedged with 5 AUG 28 CALL bought last week. Hedging into earnings on July 23.
20yr bond (TLT) at HOD.
NEWS: Analysts expect bad news on commercial real estate from banks reporting earnings this week – Regions (RF), KeyCorp (KEY) and Zions (ZION), heavily invested in the sector, are expected to combine for more than $400M in Q2 losses. Zions reports after closing today; Regions before open tomorrow and KeyCorp on Wednesday.
treasuries rallying hard- I’m closing longs and going short now. SRS and FAZ to start.
July 20th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
and some VXX.
July 20th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
What do you use to track treasuries ?
July 20th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
$FVX is the 5yr yield, now off 3.4% today.
$TNX is the 10yr yield, now off 2.25% and in a nosedive.
In SRS @ 18.35. This has to end soon.