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14
Jul
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1:00pm
The volume today continues to be extremely light.. financials are at a strong descending resistance line that start in may.. but they have not managed to break it this morning.. GS, which i stood in amazement as it rallied finally hit my highest target at 151 before falling back down and is now is potentially consolidating for another move lower… Since this is options expiration week, I really don’t know, we can drift higher from here on low volume. But my guess is that one day we just fall hard somewhere in the next few days.. that’s why i have SDS calls and FAZ and PUT spreads on the SPY ready (35% of my protfolio).
12:07am
Futures are pretty much flat.. but if you look at the chart that I posted yesterday after the close you can see that we ended right at the retest of the H&S neckline.. we can potentially (if GS disappoints on forecast) fall down from there. We can also rally towards the red descending line and then move lower from there… but i’ve added some put spreads yesterday and i’ll be adding some more as we rally..
I will be extremely busy again today.. i’m sorry but this week is hectic for me…
I’ve adjusted my custom calculated Max Pain levels for the S&P500 to be between 910 and 920 by Friday.
Looks like my patience may start to pay off. Here is an interesting chart from someone over at ES. Kinda like the kenny dot at ES 910, which is more then I want to see it though.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Gi-9fDeQJwo/SlzLzFVTHTI/AAAAAAAAAVI/m7aUS7cUZsM/s1600-h/ES+is+a+topping+pattern.png
Sticking to the plan, keeping fingers off the trigger. Just don’t see 908 today. Of course I’m only right 51.9% of the time. 898 EOD
July 14th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
It won’t take much for them to hold it here.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
FL – what are you holding right now for a swing – sorry have not been able to see posts all this morning …
July 14th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Just INTC calls.
Mostly puts at least into EOD today….see what the next half hour brings
3pm reversal today?
TBT is rolling today!
anyone playing long? seems like this blog is very bearish:)
July 14th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
I’m long (ERX, TBT, XLF, XLP, XLU, and XLV)
July 14th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Rather risky:
http://i28.tinypic.com/10conc7.png
July 14th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
The link doesn’t work for me but I am quite comfortable in my current positions. Thanks though and good luck!
July 14th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
What justification do you have for being long? I am curious.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
I am long because I think the market is more likely to go up rather than down at this juncture. Notice that my half of my positions are what I would call defensive longs (XLP, XLU, and XLV). The ERX is a shorter-term play (I was in ERY last week and closed it yesterday morning).
July 14th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
OK, I’ll play. Zee, what justification do you have for being short? I am curious.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
I am planning to hold my shorts for a while. Going long here (except for swings and intraday trades) is like stepping infront of a freight train in the middle of the night if not properly hedged.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Picked up UNG at 12.01 for a run at 13 by OPEX, holding DGP (I’m a glutton for punishment) and in VXX at 68.80. Only holding TBT long term since I got in around 41.
——————- FAZ —————— bearish pennant?
INTC carrying the load higher.
Looks like we couldn’t crack up so we’ll just crack down?
July 14th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
———– 910 ———— can we close on our high today and then have a
pop in the morning to tag this line…………. or we make it today.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
———— AIG ————- woopsy. thought i could get back in above $15
puking up blood now. $2 from its high of $16.20 today. ugly
July 14th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Neither. Rollover time.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
All options except GS in the green. AIG AAPL breaking down
looks to me that we just end around here or a little higher. Sto is high but all else is flat. Still have a buy signal on SPY since 2:30 so I think there is enough support to keep it about 9.39.
looking for an overnight short swing…..hmmm…
July 14th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
foing long VXX at 68.93
July 14th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
It shall be interesting. Perhaps I better look at shorts a little sooner that the final 3 minutes. I don’t see the extreme that you do, but it is there.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
With the divergences onthe 10m and the hourly “toppy,” I’d expect a good deal of profit taking in the last 30 minutes, especially with INTC coming and DELL pooping in the tech pool (INTC’s main customer).
We shall see though.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Misplaced: It shall be interesting. Perhaps I better look at shorts a little sooner that the final 3 minutes. I don’t see the extreme that you do, but it is there.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
tight BB on FAZ 10min. It looks very weak and I think oit will end even lower today than it is now. FAZ should GAP in the morning given the BBs.
Not that great on candlesticks yet, what is that on the spx daily so far, hanging man?
July 14th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Could be. Here’s a reference I discovered here on StockTock:
http://www.candlesticker.com/Bearish.asp
July 14th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Here’s a key page on candlestick patterns in stockcharts.com’s Chart School section, from which you can link back to a section that has more about candlesticks:
http://tinyurl.com/yvr38x
July 14th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Hanging man requires a lower shadow at least two to three times the length of the real body, according to S. Nison. Spinning tops (small real body) point to indecision and may mean something at the top of a trend, but don’t carry weight in a box range. Hanging man and spinning tops at the top of a trend require confirmation of reversal. They are not as potent as a shooting star.
Thirty minutes.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
If this thing doesn’t move, we can confirm Richard’s thoughts about opex.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
we have been sitting on the 20dma for what seems like forever.
AAPL poopin the pool too.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
PCLN trying to do the same. dear stock lords please give me a close under $110
Buyin some DELL JUL 12 C’s
Took more $$$$$ on INTC calls
Bear trendline now 907 and 20sma is 904.18.
————— LOOKS LIKE WE TAG IT TODAY —————
FAZ pennant breaking down. find out in 15mins.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
trying to just use the FINS to push it up. as the SPX sat on highs,
ODFL and ASH head lower.
Nice fake out
Biggest 10m volume candle on the SPY in 2 days, 17m shares red. Price held. Amazing.
Candlesticks
If you’re interested in learning more about candlesticks and seeing them at work, check out The Chart Pattern Trader (thechartpatterntrader.com). His nightly videos (around thirty minutes) feature this kind of TA on a regular basis.
I know people are buying INTC calls but why. Hasn’t the market pumped this one up enough already that it’ll be a “sell on the news” type of deal?
CNBC was saying many call options so it’s looking good after they announce earnings.
July 14th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
DELL now off 8.5%.
Yeah tech,
July 14th, 2009 at 6:54 pm
I tried to buy Intc puts at the end of the day, I’m glad it didn’t execute. Congrats on everyone with calls.
So, we’re likely to end this day in confusion. I’m just cash, with a slight bias to the downside. But don’t want to enter a trade yet.
The website url is from evilspeculator. Tells you what I am thinking as well.
After a day like today, perhaps more gardens will be tended to tomorrow. Good day.
GS July 145’s look tempting.
July 14th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
call or put? call i’m guessing since it’s very close
July 14th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
puts
Short swing CPA
July 14th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
40.02
What an amazing trading day……
July 14th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
I made about 900 today; I’ll take that anytime!
July 14th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Sat and watched all day…….
INTC: Anyone holding into earnings should be ready to lose a pile. Took major $$$$ on the way up.
July 14th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Nice DELL pop AH
See if it sticks
Ok…holding
GS AAPL USO P’s
DELL INTC C’s (may get crushed in the next few minutes….or…..)
July 14th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
and AIG P
Night all. Martini time.
Unless my TOS is messed up, SPY is trading up 50 cents over where it closed or so while /ES is trading down?
July 14th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
futures up 1%. wow
July 14th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
intel 0.18 vs 0.08
July 14th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Intel reports a 7 cents-per-share loss, missing analyst estimates of a profit of 8 cents. Revenue of $8 billion beat forecasts.
AAPL, DELL moving up right now ….
July 14th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
huh?
July 14th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
7 cents loss is GAAP, non GAAP is 0.18
INTC open again….. at $18.
Hope the calls hold up overnight. 5 bagger if it does.
July 14th, 2009 at 4:53 pm
SWEET POUR VOUS……… how many did you keep. hopefully 200 or more
July 14th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
1200
July 14th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
LOOKS LIKE 909 WILL BE AN EASY TARGET for this market. today i posted 915 as a wick out of the channel. maybe we actually get a close above the channel. tomorrow we find out:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx_july-14-2009?context=user
July 14th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
You want to see it. I want to see it. We all want it, which is why I just don’t believe 820-800 will happen this soon. Ready either way. I’m stuck in the 850 to 975 camp, then the swan dive.
July 14th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
Whats your general time line on this?
July 14th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
850 within days, 975 into early-mid Sept, Crash to follow.
July 14th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
DELL at 12.18ish AH should make my .18 $12 calls worth .35ish tomorrow. TBD
July 14th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
Nice job on INTC and Dell. I got a little impatient and tried to scalp some aug puts after the market closed. My order came within a penny of hitting at 4:14 and then the wtf bull rush happened, very glad my order didn’t hit
Will likely add some aug puts tomorrow and maybe day trade some july, although I have been saving them this week for Friday when delta makes the options move like futures on opex since I only have my 3 per week.
July 14th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
Ya..makes up for weak put performance so not retiring to Aruba any time soon.
July 14th, 2009 at 8:33 pm
How can you buy / sell puts when the market is closed – I thought we couldn’t …..
July 14th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
You can do options until 4:15
July 14th, 2009 at 6:16 pm
Wow great trade!
What calls did you buy ?
Enjoy the rewards if being on the right side of earnings call, what did you see that made you enter the position?
July 14th, 2009 at 7:04 pm
Just was based on the bullish run up pre-earnings in INTC even as SPX was basically flat all day. Dell is one of their bigger customers. Sympathy play, especially after a huge over-done smack down.
July 14th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
JUL near strike calls….always during OPEX wk