Comments on: Intraday Commentary ~ 07/13/2009

By: TxChristopher

TxChristopher — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 02:56:40 +0000

Idan,

SPY has been controlled by the mini down channel for a while, which includes the upper line from the big overall bear market channel. I have been playing it since it turned off the bottom assuming it will stop and reverse at the top. No reason to believe it will not. The move up has been totally predictable, just as the last move down then up was to a nearly perfect 61.8%. this one to maybe 50% of the entire move then down to 77-78 I suspect to complete the larger daily IHS playing out from back in November. Haven’t had to move a single trendline since the 23rd.

SPY 30 min chart:

http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/3774/spy30min071309close2.jpg

By: momoney

momoney — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 23:32:15 +0000

FLguy
How did your VIX trade go?
I see some near term support maybe a bounce this week, but don’t know which options to trade?

By: FLguy

FLguy — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 22:58:50 +0000

Shoulda held those DELL puts. Ugh

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31894955

By: momoney

momoney — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 22:22:19 +0000

Wonder if Idan will be bullish now?

By: FLguy

FLguy — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 21:29:04 +0000

J-SO’s chart off of Kenny’ blog. 901 backtest then…..tankage, at least short term?

http://content.screencast.com/users/J-So/folders/Default/media/05bc59f4-6034-4019-b872-64f38b3cf638/Fib%20Fan%20Lines%207-10-9.png

By: Richard (getcrazyagain)

Richard (getcrazyagain) — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 21:09:55 +0000

im trying to trade the path to 910… .seems funny to try and trade a path that is only 1% away. seems that PCLN and NTES stayed under the resistance so im happy with these choices. see what special guest they bring on tomorrrow morning… gonnna be Dr. Doom ?

By: BananaHammock

BananaHammock — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 21:00:36 +0000

Take a look at the weekly MACD getting ready to cross on SPY and XLF. It’s already crossed on FXI. It looks just like ‘07 and ‘08 before the huge waves down that began around June 17.

By: Cil

Cil — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 20:56:20 +0000

Agreed…and my account is enjoying this little bounce….will be taking shorts this week though for the drop.

By: FLguy

FLguy — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 20:55:31 +0000

Ya, couldn’t get to the $5 slot machines so I’m in the GS short boat (as opposed to the short bus) with you. Luck to us all.

By: kenjisan

kenjisan — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 20:43:37 +0000

I boughts puts for GS at the end of the day for August.

It seems like there is a strong resistance right under 150, but tomorrow’s earnings, this could easily break.. so a gamble. Doesn’t it seem to be a pattern where when a stock goes up the day before earnings, their earnings usually brings them back down?

I wanted to short SPY but already had enough in puts.. I decided to hold myself back. I really wanted to though.