6:56pm
The H&S neckline was pretty much tested at the end of the day as resistance.. which is something that i said a few days ago was very possible… I went ahead and bought some PUT spreads for august 89/85. Here’s a 60 minute S&P:
12:26am
Hey guys,
I’m busy for today, but I have posted a market update yesterday before the futures opened, and I suggest you read my thoughts. GS will also report earnings on tuesday and I believe they will be great.. but maybe not as great as analysts expect… we’ll have to see.. again I expect a very strong shoot down either today or in the next couple of days after option expiration. If today is a strong shoot down… take profits..
No Economic Recovery? Down We Go
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.7 percent to 98.94 as of 12:39 p.m. in Tokyo, with seven stocks declining for each one that advanced. The gauge has lost 5.9 percent from an eight- month high on June 12 as optimism for a global economic recovery eased. The index had risen as much as 49 percent from a five- year low on March 9.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKsTEpfQEcOU
Futures
Nikkei 9,160.00 -90
Hang Seng 17,302.00 -423
FTSE 4,101.00 -15
DAX 4,574.50 -47.50
DJIA 8,048.00 -37.oo
S&P 869.20 -5.10
Nikkei -1.95%
Hang Seng -2.06%
Nikkei closed -2.55% and Hang Seng -2.56%. The Nikkei has closed down for nine days in a row.
—- SOME HAVE GREATER WORRIES — http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5uujMb_hbo
—- SOMETHING A BIT MORE SERIOUS —- this guys is saying new lows come pretty swiftly. OCTOBER? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eixBKhRw2S4
morning all…Cobra says VIX /SPX has 8 of 10 chance of being green day on Monday also the first two trading days this week may be seasonally bullish and ROC on 10 Yr. T-Notes may signal early stages of market bottom but any rebound is temporary still expecting the possibility for Red OE week and calling for QQQQ pullback …something for everybody…GLT
Wondering how much Meredith Whitney was, let’s say “urged” to upgrade GS one day before earnings. Gimme a break.
Yeah …. that should give the banks a break
It’s Balanced Reporting!
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stock futures were little changed on Monday as caution over the latest earnings season weighed and CIT Group Inc (CIT.N) grappled with shoring up its finances, offsetting a broker upgrade of Goldman Sachs
Wow, GS up big, just saw that. Wish I had some calls on them eh? Looks like this will turn into a sell the news on GS earnings. Was wondering if it was going to turn into a sell the rumor buy the news if it kept selling off.
It has “taken” R2 during premarket and now gunning for R3. Lets see if it holds. I am not getting in front of this train before earnings, thats for sure. I’ll let other more brave souls take that one on.
Yeah, this appears to be pulling the market higher, looks like a probable gap up this morning.
Guys – Max pain on SPY is now 90 down from 91 last week … so those puts are helping …
WFC sueing itself, good stuff there. This is why our world is so messed up
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/al-lewis-wells-fargo-bank-sues/
How’s This For Playing With Yourself?
Regulators contend Bank of America owes at least part of a $4 billion fee it agreed to pay in January — even without a completed legal document — because the company benefited from implied U.S. backing on about $118 billion of Merrill Lynch assets, such as mortgage-backed bonds, people familiar with the matter said. The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank says it owes the Treasury nothing, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are confidential.
http://www.bloomberg.com
FL – you mentioned you are starting to look at some OTM puts for Fall … can you share what you are looking at ?
You know me. I stick to the more liquid tech options. If you’re in the “we’re going to 1000″ camp, of course waiting would be prudent. If you’re in the “this H&S formation is in” camp, sell the rallies now. Me? Waiting on any more entries until some break of the channel.
Philips Electronics (PHG 19.05, +0.84, +4.61%) kicked off Europe earnings season by reporting a 94% profit drop, though analysts had forecast a loss.
Play It Again, Tim
RIYADH/LONDON (Reuters) – Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will seek to reassure Gulf Arab states this week that U.S. dollar assets they hold in large quantities remain a strong investment.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE56C1ZO20090713
how is he going to pull that off? drug em up?
I’ll sell the remaining AAPL calls from last week and add to AAPL puts and snag a few JUL DELL 13 P’s, VIX 27.50 calls.
FYI, notice OSCAR entering short here. Target 860′s. Fits my call for a bottom, then rise later in the week.
CLOSED AAPL JUL 135 C 5.50 (avg in 3.30)
BOUGHT AAPL JUL 140 P 2.30 (avg in now 2.68)
Bidding DELL/VIX…no takers
BOUGHT DELL JUL 13 P .22
Bidding 2.50 for VIX JUL 27.50 P
Sorry CALLS!
Looks like that ship has sailed. Not chasing.
———- UP A FEW MINUTES LATE ————– ye old play us for fools again is it? HSI and NIKEEI down 2% ………. guess we get the boring route to 900? i dunno.
———– FORD ————- sold short $5.71
the shorts i put out…….. are in the money. rotatao potato into FINS i guess.
————— ODFL —————- im up 2.22% on this short.
this market is going to try and make us all crazy. miss super bear comes
out and upgrades the banks. that almost puts me over the edge. clearly
anyone but Denninger can be bought.
“Clearly anyone but Denninger can be bought.”
What? My understanding is that she upgraded GS, not banks in general. Accusing her of being bought is a little over the top considering her record of calling it straight thus far.
Also said major banks (except Citi) could have short term 10-15% run.
OK, I just read a snippet where she said GS is a buy. However, she is probably right about the other banks considering the earnings that will be coming out. Accusing her of being bought is extreme since she has been a source of excellent advice on the banks through this whole mess.
We’re All Ears
July 13 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke probably will show how the central bank will exit the biggest monetary expansion in history when he reports to Congress next week, economists said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNU.UkT9EB68
WOW. Sweet tankage by AAPL DELL
Closed a few for $$$$$. Never too early.
————– IM UP A NICE CHUNK OF CHANGE ————- despite the markets being higher. i’ll be taking some profits here and see what we get as the day goes on.
ODFL ————- covered part $32.83 +3%
ASH ————– covered part $24.67 +1.5%
———— FIRST HOUR ———— dont like to do much in this time frame. im up 2% from the morning short in FORD. like using limit orders. chart the stock, find the sweet spot… set your order.. woops.. sleep in. cha ching.
———— MICC PUTS ——— sold 3 of them @ $4.10 ……… guess i set a price i wanted at target of 864
and it was met. net +7%
———— ODFL PUTS ——— +24%………. sold. keeping short shares.
Could this be a no-bs day? Many equities are not listening to financials today. Reality may just be the catalyst for a major drop. Who could see that coming!?
Took 2 bagger $$$$$ on the DELL puts. Holding a few just for fun. AAPL bumped up off the 200ma (5min).
FL,
Dell was an extremely good play. If you don’t mind me asking, what do you use for you trade setup? What told you Dell was a sell on Friday.
Thank you in advance.
Tech weakness/Sell the news play after the GS upgrade.
—————– VIX —————– those in charge wont pull the plug on this thing
untily they pust the VIX down to a value of 3?
—————- FORD ———— covered in full for 3% gain
Wow FAZ is hard to play again……
Huh..sold a bit early. I thought the 200ma would have held on the RIFIN. Today just might be a good down day. Have fun today gotta work!!
NYSE Vol: 123 mln.. Adv: 1185.. Dec: 1456
Nasdaq Vol: 221 mln.. Adv: 757.. Dec: 1424
CIT GROUP INC 1.18 -22.88 22518166
New yearly low on UNG, not a great indicator for the bull case…
Merideath upgrades GS and the market trends water, that has to tell you something…
—– 864 —–believe it when i see it. playing pretty safe here. ……. going long at 864
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx_july-10-2009?context=latest
Could it be a Rounding Top instead?
could be anything. all i care about is putting more $$ in my account. and i up $$ over the past 3 weeks now. up nicely today and took profits at 875. holding on to some more positions but ill bail to stay in the green if that is what i feel is the right thing to do.
CIT GROUP INC 1.17 -23.53% 29222684
Limit out at raised AAPL stop 3.00. Will re-enter
Bull flag on JPM but a Bear flag on GS….RIFIN regaining the 200ma if it gets back above 603. then 606 will be strong res.
———— HW.TO ———– my top performing short is in Canada. im up 7.5%
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=hw.to im holding on for more. it is sliding
down a steepening lower BB
Market has struggled to hold below 875. Being short I want to see a close under this level.
Going with the weaker techs. BOUGHT RIMM JUL 65 P 1.25. Looking for a bump down off the MAs.
Bit early. Doubled up at 1.05. We will NOT end green today IMVHO. Double top, drop time.
10:30amET
- NYSE volume 200M shares, about 32% below its
three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 2.1:1.
- NASDAQ volume 400M shares, about 30% below its
three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 1.9:1
Sold all ERY this morning at 28.50 (800 shares at 27.00 average = +1200). Still holding everything else from last week: TBT (ugh), XLF, XLP, XLU, and XLV.
ERY looks like a textbook inverse head and shoulders to me; I’m the guy on the other side of your trade.
Yeah, it could run from here but it hit my target so I’m out. Good luck!
That’s fair. It takes all styles of investors to make a market. Good luck to you too.
Over the past 60 days, ERY has formed that inverse H&S and is currently backtesting the neckline at $28.89. Target is $41.79.
I don’t trust TA on the leveraged ETFs but I hope the trade plays out to your benefit.
Quite a few of those are doing well. Looks like you are still favouring the long side.
Custom Calculated S&P 500 Max Pain is 900-920. Still tons of puts open at 90 and 91 on the SPY. Tons of calls sold at 950. I would NOT be short this week.
Cyan – how do you find out how many puts are open at a particular price level …. can you explain a bit
Look at the “Open Interest”. Sometimes called the “OI”.
A high amount of OI on puts means that the feeling should be bullish. A high amount of OI on calls means bearish. You add in the two ranges and do some calculations and you’ll get the “max pain” levels. Most people define this as a single target, I define mine as a range of values, between 900 and 920 in this case.
Thanks !!
im short stocks well above MAX PAIN. rotato potato. FAZ is above and so the FINS must rally and to counter balance the stocks im in should fall. if they don’t i run for the hills
Vix putting in a IH&S, right shoulder now potentially, but its looking pretty bearish on the daily charts. If this breaks down more it could visit 25.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600&cmd=shows168106527&disp=P
Like I said Friday, Vix lost all kinds of daily support, 20/50 ema, breakdown of daily RSI 50 etc. Frankly since I am a believer in the second right shoulder, combined with the 17th turn date on opex I think vix breaks down and this IH&S is fake on it.
the VIX isn’t a true sentiment index. It can EASILY be gamed just by buying or selling options on any number of popular equities on the open market. I believe Barclay’s and a few other folks are trying to come out with a new sentiment index to replace the VIX.
Yeah but it can be used as a decent indicator. There have been many a times when everyone was getting excited about a move but the vix wasn’t confirming – Friday for example when it was breaking down so badly I knew today was going to be a green day. Doesn’t always work but when taken in conjunction with other factors it can work well
I should say thought since we never actually “know”
VIX is eating FOO FOO for dinner. wish we could just get down to 864 … i’d buy some FAS if we did that. why couldn’t Meredith keep her trap shut until the afternoon?
It was no secret that GS (and other banks) were probably going to have a great quarter.
yes, agree that the spouting began some time ago about how they were going to make profits. but, on a day where ASIA is down 2% and the futures are in foo foo land. they get Ms. PermaBear on side. i had a game plan to go long at 864 and someone peed in my Raisin Brand and shorted me one scoop of raisins.
Richard, thats just the news, if it wasn’t that it would have been something else. The second shallow right shoulder shall be built, it will (Jedi mind trick)
BOUGHT VIX calls here at LOD and gap fill (last Monday)
morning…out of SSO with small gain…looking to re-enter around SPX 865 and short after a break above 885 expecting stall out no higher than 890 this week…GLT today…
s&p outlook calling for 50% retracement from 956 high down to 805 before moving higher to end the year back around 950…of course it never moves in a straight line…grin
“Californication”———anyone trading iou’s?
I wanted to, but you have to have a notorized bill of sale for the IOU from the person’s whose name is on it. That prevents the sale and trading of it. Plus SEC is all over it. There was a big article in WSJ this weekend about folks trying to buy it but the SEC is cracking down on it.
EBay isn’t selling it, and CraigsList is mostly scams with counterfeits.
AIG– Accelerated Slope, almost up +100% in price in the past 2 trading days.
As soon as it breaks this slope from 9:34AM today, I’m shorting
Thanks Zee
————— PCLN ———– this one is at a sticking point for retrace of the last leg lower. $107 current print and the MAX PAIN is $100. see where its at for the EOD and i may sell short. im carrying one contract $115 put as i sold the other 2 for 165% gain
HOWEVER, GS has made alot of trading profits so that may mean the executives will celebrate with travel, book the trips on priceline.com, and for a discount fare upgrade the PCLN to a strong buy… must be nimble
Wow… where did THAT big green candle come from?
im not sure.. faz at LOD
Perhaps testing the H&S neckline. I see a shorting opportunity
spy’s neckline is at about 89.25.
887 – 888 area is a key fib and that is where i loaded up short last week. didnt get paid until this morning. do we load up here again? with the OPEX magic it feels like we just trade in a range. no big dip and rally.
I honestly think this is the push up to 900-910.
Too early. Next week
Listened to Handley this weekend. 887 to 865 to 907-910, then?????
This looks like short covering. I hate it for you guys that were short this morning and over the weekend.
Was short the weekend. Added to puts, cashed out big time. Added puts on this re-trace. Should have waited til now on RIMM to hit the 200ma (5min) but quite satisfied with the day. If I get stopped out, still up 50% on the day.
———– GLAD I CASHED ALOT IN THE EARLY MORNING ———- i have no idea here. cashing in the 875-880 feels right and even if we head lower than that level i’m happy
about the choice. FAZ is floating in “no man’s land” , Europe UP, Asia DN, my head
is spinning. everything is all over the place. im not adding any positions today or
tomorrow. just keeping what i have and looking for a spot to cash.
Richard, you seem like the perfect guy to go long Iron Condors. Come join us…
So Who Is The Counterparty?
July 13 (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which provided a $3 billion credit facility to CIT Group Inc. more than a year ago, said today that it has offset any exposure to the company with collateral and hedges.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHEL2kD_9_Bs
Probably themselves. You can double book the revenue and still show that you are fully hedged.
Or worse, they convinced one of their clients to sell them hedges/CDS’s
Short AIG here? Anyone?
looking at the daily…. maybe it runs back up to test the 20sma. after the 20/40 cross don’t you usually get a retardo back test?
Bought a few 14 p’s.
i sez im not taking any new positions but for good KARMA shorted $14.40
200 shares in AIG. no puts for me. im out of most short term puts.
Draw your neckline at 880 spx. You have two left shoulders, a head and 1 right shoulder. We have bounced off the horizontal neckline and are tracing out a shallow second right shoulder. This second shoulder should be a backtest of the RSI 50 on the daily (which is currently swinging up) as well as a backtest of either the 50 sma or the 20 ema by opex/ 17th turn date. I would prefer a test of the 50 sma at 910 since we never backtested it once we broke though.
This is what I am watching, not the sloping H & S most others have. Don’t know if it is right or wrong, just what I am going by in terms of timing, turn dates and what makes the most sense to me. I am already short so if I am wrong its no big deal, however I am hedged so if it plays out I will get the greatest bang for my buck so to speak.
50 ema is at 897 so for those bears who like this sub 900 that is also a potential target, not one I prefer though :0
Vix broken down again. Will get some calls around 25.5
This H&S was the subject of every financial blog over the weekend and no one has “the” answer. Check out the neckline”using arithmetic instead of log calculations and you will note one source of the debate.
————— PCLN —————- 50% retrace is $109 for the last leg lower.
There goes 888…
Looks like AAPL might tackle 142 after all. Ditched the RIMM P’s.
Running into big resistance in this area. Safe place to go short.
Running into big resistance in this area. Safe place to go short.