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13
Jul
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6:56pm
The H&S neckline was pretty much tested at the end of the day as resistance.. which is something that i said a few days ago was very possible… I went ahead and bought some PUT spreads for august 89/85. Here’s a 60 minute S&P:
12:26am
Hey guys,
I’m busy for today, but I have posted a market update yesterday before the futures opened, and I suggest you read my thoughts. GS will also report earnings on tuesday and I believe they will be great.. but maybe not as great as analysts expect… we’ll have to see.. again I expect a very strong shoot down either today or in the next couple of days after option expiration. If today is a strong shoot down… take profits..
I think we convincingly broke through 888 on the 10-minute…
we are above the neckline.
July 13th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
Not yet. It’s at 895 on the SPX
ckelter, You think we rally into OPEX (17th) and then tank?
July 13th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
We’ve been at 880 for 2 months and I’m going crazy. Can we please just test 820, or 1000 already?
Everybody keeps calling for tankage but we never get any followthrough!
Hi guys, this is from Douala on ES. This is what I have been talking about.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p88477054025&a=171762627
July 13th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
that is a very nice chart. Thanks.
July 13th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Add a 20dMA to it to see the possibility that 900 could be a top for the 2nd right shoulder reached tomorrow:
http://i29.tinypic.com/2gv68u0.png
Another reason for today’s pop would be breaking resistance from the 200dMA. However the bear cross of the 20dMA down thru the 50dMA is still very much in play, and both the 20- and 50dMA look likely to make death crosses down thru the 200dMA.
July 13th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Look how much worse the energy stocks are doing. The death cross of the 20dMA down thru the 200dMA is probably unavoidable.
http://i25.tinypic.com/2uiucfo.png
The H&S and bear cross also look much nastier.
Is there a problem with StockTock? Anyhow…..AIG puts covered losses in VIX calls on that run up, so on we go. Added back some LVS and DELL puts.
July 13th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
You mean the quality or lack thereof in the blogs and posts? A lot of people have left. Too many trolls and clowns.
July 13th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
Server was down for 30 mins..
July 13th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Yeah, was having all kinds of problems, seems to be back up for now.
Closed the short leg of my vix vertical call spread (sold .75, bought back .25). Only have the long leg now and will add on a test of 25.5 or breakout.
Stops on the short legs of my vertical put spreads but a little loose since I think we see 902 at least. Will close the short legs completly if we manage 910, don’t think it will happen today though.
July 13th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Should have held over those apple calls, oh well, didn’t want to hold over the weekend or risk a gap down.
July 13th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Ya….funny thing is if I had kept them all, instead of holding a few and switching to all puts at the open, profits would have been exactly the same. My broker made an extra $20.
July 13th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
It was down, then rather slow, but now seems to be about back to normal. As for trolls and clowns, I can (and do) click the delete link faster than they can type.
July 13th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Sorry, it’s still constipated. I’ll email Scott & Craig.
GS earnings tomorrow – otherwise a great place to short …
July 13th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Anjali, i strongly felt we would hit 864 but im glad i was wise to the fact we would not and got out of most puts and shorts. however, im willing to take some back on at eod and took a few out just under 895.
GS has now been priced in. they better deliver as expected or we tank. if they meet or stlighly exceed the market reaction is muted? this is what im thinking.
BORSON ? …. the sell on news can’t be too harsh as FAZ magically found
the MAX PAIN almost in an instant. option writers thank Meredith
July 13th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
Interesting GS Max pain is at 135 … BAC at 9 …. so in acutality all these should fall to reach the max pains …
WFC currently at the top range of its long Bull flag channel. Will be interesting if it breaks out or falls back down.
————- AIG —————- PCLN —————-
said i would do nothing but FLGUY is in so at least i can add Karma and short shares. so i took 200 shares short AIG at $14.40 …. risk/reward is beyond fair on this for short term.
and the other doing nothing is PCLN which hit the $109 level well before EOD so i took 200 shares short on this one….. max pain is $100 and the travel sector is weak. i’ve been trading this stock for quite some time. ride the waves.
July 13th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
Sweet. Ya, AIG kept slipping as most everything else popped. 7 days down then a reversal…too much too fast. Re trace to $12.30 looks in order. Dunno.
July 13th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
Fake out or stop out…will hang on for a bit. Playing JUL options so will likely ditch everything by EOD.
July 13th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
———— NTES ———- back testing 40 sma ———— again!
dont have much left in this one 200 shares at $34.36 …… may
add to position at end of day if it fails this again.
July 13th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
suppportive bids coming in…. trying to push it over the goal line.
DELL AIG look ready for some rollover minutes.
Karl Denninger On Meredith
I sit in bemused amazement at the spin job that Kudlow and others on CNBC put on this sort of “presentation” by an analyst. There is never an exposition on the fact that 13% unemployment will absolutely blow the cover off all records in this regard, and that it is flatly impossible for there to be economic growth with 13% of the employment base out and on benefits, with another 10% or more off benefits and not counted!
That is one in four people of working age in this country without a job!
If you buy this pump as an investor you deserve what you get.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1209-Whitney-And-CNBC.html
July 13th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
you bears are crazy.
all you ever do is call drops that never have happened.
July 13th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Overshoot of the 892-893 neckline?
July 13th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
This is the much discussed second right shoulder of a months-long H&S. While daytrading bulls are happy about the bounce today, I think the longer time frame bears are very happy too.
AIG puts limit out. Shoulda taken the afternoon off. lol As usual, the first half hour has been best for me.
this is going very well so far …
July 13th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
Agreed…and my account is enjoying this little bounce….will be taking shorts this week though for the drop.
LVS back under 7 saving the afternoon for me. Target 6.60. We’ll see.
I think that was it…5 waves up EWT…ending diagn. …
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/futures-early-snapshot-7122009
I’m taking profits at 900 from my long positions.
July 13th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
5 min macd diverg. on SPX…not sure if we’ll get to 900 which is the next pivot.
July 13th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
vix divergence too…that’s worth noting.
July 13th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Either way I’m good. As long as we stay between 850 and 950 by this Friday, I’ll profit 42% for the month.
I also have a bullish call spread 89-90 on the SPY that I got for 35 cents. If we close above ~900 that means it’ll be worth a dollar each.
July 13th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
I’ll be looking out for more of your strategies for next month ….
July 13th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
It’ll actually probably be very similar. Sell the 95-96 call spread for August, and sell the 79-78 put spread.
I like to be fully hedged at all times, so I will also do:
Buy a 90-95 call spread as protection to the upside. Use FAZ as protection to the downside.
So you’re protected to the upside if we blow through 950, just buy back your short positions and ride your 90s and 96s. And we have a 100-point protection to the downside (which I think is the real risk here).
Net credit is probably somewhere around 40% again for the month of August.
July 13th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Take profits at 900!
A good swing trade maybe to buy FXI at end of day. China will love the US price movement today and had a very bad day yesterday. China will probably rise 2% and there should be time to sell FXI in the morning prior to any US sell off.
July 13th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Making money while you sleep…I like that idea.
July 13th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
On second thought, I believe caution is required here. The Chinese markets have been on a roll due to government-provided liquidity (see below) and I read over the weekend that the policy has just been reversed.
_____
The Daily Bell
Chinese bank announces bombshell
Issue 343 • Friday, July 10, 2009
Yesterday on their website, the People’s Bank of China announced a shocker. New Chinese bank lending for June was 1.53 trillion yuan ($224 billion), double the lending in May. The total already for the year is an astounding 7.4 trillion yuan when the target for the entire year was 5 trillion.
_____
The Nikkei may be a better bet: after nine down days, it’s due for a correction (if today’s right shoulder doesn’t crack below the neckline).
July 13th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
the Chinese are gamblers. Hang Seng will be up tomorrow. The question is FXI is also affected by the Dow.
July 13th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
FXI is for Chinese mainland markets. If you want to play the Hang Seng Index, then you need a different ETF:
HSXUF:US Hang Seng Investment Index Funds Series – H-Share Index ETF
Good luck!
GS is going to top out here for a bit I think. Same with JPM. RIFIN up against res too…..
toppping 5min candle $UVOL-$DVOL
Was out for a bit. Caught a bid to buy back the AIG puts. The 20/50 spread just too inviting
July 13th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
50/50 puts/cash here.
——– NTES ——– OKILY DOKILY …. adding short here. $35.10,,, just above the 20ma
THIS 895…………. ITS THE TOP RIGHT. turn lower tuesday and the move higher near eow?
July 13th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
you know about this, right? a week old, so a short is probably safe but….
“NetEase.Com Target Raised To US$50.00 From US$35.00 By Citi”
July 13th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
what im witnessing in the stock is supportive bids, decent sized ones, getting body slammed over and over. these FTARDs upgrade the stock so they can unload massive positions. the games never stop. $50,,, yeah right
————— TWO BIGGEST POSITIONS ———— and yes, im actually up money today as a permabear. 200 SHORT + 1 PUT — PCLN 600 SHORT — NTES
no FAZ no SRS no ERY …. no to 3x for some time now. will look at those
again at the end of this fartastic week.
Add more shorts
IF USO pops thru the HOD, we could be in for a hell of a last hour higher. If not…betting a slow grind sideways or lower. It’s all up to GS tomorrow. I’ll be 90% cash by EOD.
MS and BAC are outperforming GS on a %age basis today. Sold MS July 29 C for .31. Will either kick ass tom. after GS reports or be dead meat.
going to short WFC if I can get it for a dime higher.
Scott thinks the sluggish response or non-response of the server is a problem with our web host. Unfortunately, we can’t do much about it short-term. Sorry.
GS could form the right shoulder on a small H&S which could lead to the right shoulder down on a much larger H&S.
Added some GS 145 puts. Strickly gamblin $$$
LVS broke down out of the rising wedge, confirmed and “should” dip. Probably close most EOD
AIG 50/20 cross coming (5min) by EOD…maybe. Tell time there. Probably hold over
DELL puts flat. No clue.
Added some GS 145 puts. Strickly gamblin $$$
LVS broke down out of the rising wedge, confirmed and “should” dip. Probably close most EOD
AIG 50/20 cross coming (5min) by EOD…maybe. Tell time there. Probably hold over
DELL puts flat. No clue.
Added some GS 145 puts. Strickly gamblin $$$
USO rejected at pivot for now.
LVS broke down out of the rising wedge, confirmed and “should” dip. Probably close most EOD
AIG took 1/2 $$$ on last batch of puts and promptly stopped out of most of the rest. Tell time here.
DELL puts flat. Closed out net 0
Top of the 14-month bear channel fast approaching. Thrusters on…
July 13th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
I mean.. the financials just keeps on going higher..
July 13th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
GS once again at major resistance. Something’s going to crack…
July 13th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
900 wow.. that was quick.
July 13th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Flare spotted on GS. Put on seatbelts…
Wow, even TBT is helping out some today!
899.84 is close enough for me. Closing out of my longs. 100% gain today alone in some of the calls that I had.
My puts are out of the “danger” zone and should expire worthless on Friday.
Will hold puts over. Lotsa neg div. Take profits!!!
July 13th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
ES/SPX H&S campers….are we not at the 20/50 cross and neckline of H/S?
a rising tide…lifts all tirds.
July 13th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
I was happy to be riding the tide today (even if it is full of turds); up over 3700 today!
Strong finish today. i was actually thinking we would sell off at the very last minute, but we held and closed right at 900.
This still fits into my plan of 900-910 by OpEx this Friday.
I’m buying very tight call spreads on any pullbacks here…
July 13th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
im trying to trade the path to 910… .seems funny to try and trade a path that is only 1% away. seems that PCLN and NTES stayed under the resistance so im happy with these choices. see what special guest they bring on tomorrrow morning… gonnna be Dr. Doom ?
What a set-up for tomorrow! SPX and GS just below major resistance.
Pop then drop like Bruno’s pants at a male chorus convention?
I couldn’t resist shorting @ 900 at the end of day. If the S&P goes much higher it will have to force its way through the resistance that has been in place since May 2008 and put an end to this whole bear market. I don’t see that happening yet.
I boughts puts for GS at the end of the day for August.
It seems like there is a strong resistance right under 150, but tomorrow’s earnings, this could easily break.. so a gamble. Doesn’t it seem to be a pattern where when a stock goes up the day before earnings, their earnings usually brings them back down?
I wanted to short SPY but already had enough in puts.. I decided to hold myself back. I really wanted to though.
July 13th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Ya, couldn’t get to the $5 slot machines so I’m in the GS short boat (as opposed to the short bus) with you. Luck to us all.
Take a look at the weekly MACD getting ready to cross on SPY and XLF. It’s already crossed on FXI. It looks just like ‘07 and ‘08 before the huge waves down that began around June 17.
J-SO’s chart off of Kenny’ blog. 901 backtest then…..tankage, at least short term?
http://content.screencast.com/users/J-So/folders/Default/media/05bc59f4-6034-4019-b872-64f38b3cf638/Fib%20Fan%20Lines%207-10-9.png
Wonder if Idan will be bullish now?
Shoulda held those DELL puts. Ugh
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31894955
July 13th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
FLguy
How did your VIX trade go?
I see some near term support maybe a bounce this week, but don’t know which options to trade?
Idan,
SPY has been controlled by the mini down channel for a while, which includes the upper line from the big overall bear market channel. I have been playing it since it turned off the bottom assuming it will stop and reverse at the top. No reason to believe it will not. The move up has been totally predictable, just as the last move down then up was to a nearly perfect 61.8%. this one to maybe 50% of the entire move then down to 77-78 I suspect to complete the larger daily IHS playing out from back in November. Haven’t had to move a single trendline since the 23rd.
SPY 30 min chart:
http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/3774/spy30min071309close2.jpg